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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL_Sharp Week 11 Picks and Rankings
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#1
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:06:41 AM
Overall Record:  14-9, +6.95 units

A couple early plays for Week 11 that I want to jump on now.  Probably will have a few more adds coming throughout the week.

Buffalo -1
Cleveland +7.5
New Orleans -4.5
San Diego/Denver Over 49.5
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#2
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:22:19 AM
Rankings to come after the game tomorrow night or Tuesday morning.

Also, you'll call me crazy, but I think Cleveland has a good chance to beat Dallas next Sunday.
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#3
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:25:03 PM
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#4
Posted: 11/12/2012 12:27:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:

Rankings to come after the game tomorrow night or Tuesday morning.

Also, you'll call me crazy, but I think Cleveland has a good chance to beat Dallas next Sunday.
Only if  Jim Brown and Bernie Kosar come back....
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#5
Posted: 11/12/2012 1:07:51 PM
Love Buff and NO....
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#6
Posted: 11/13/2012 4:20:07 AM
Adding Cincinnati -3 (-120)
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#7
Posted: 11/13/2012 8:06:04 AM
really like the bills
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#8
Posted: 11/13/2012 4:23:01 PM
Thanks Dave, yamda, and bigkap.  Good luck to you guys this week.  Good luck to you as well shrimp.

A few adds, including another unit on Cle, Cin, NO.  Here is the updated card:

2** Cleveland +7.5
2** New Orleans -4.5
2 ** Cincinnati -3 (-120)
Buffalo -1
Jacksonville +16
Arizona +10
San Diego/Denver Over 49.5

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#9
Posted: 11/13/2012 4:40:38 PM

GL, Sharp. I like all of 'em, except 'zona. With their D, I'd take DD pts 9/10 times, but I think this is a bad spot, even off the bye. Their offense is atrocious & I can see ATL being re-dedicated & P.O.'d @ home after perfect season was ruined last wk. But, just MO.

I'm w/ you on most of the others & not against you in any, so B.O.L.!

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#10
Posted: 11/13/2012 4:41:05 PM
Here are my efficiency rankings heading into week 11. Again, these are just measurements of play over the past 3 games. They're not power rankings and don't measure the entire season - they're just a snapshot of how a team is playing right now with respect to efficiency, with offense and defense weighted evenly in the overall rankings.

Overall Rankings
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 Houston
4 San Francisco
5 Carolina
6 Cincinnati
7 Tampa Bay
8 New Orleans
9 San Diego
10 Pittsburgh
11 New England
12 Cleveland
13 Tennessee
14 Green Bay
15 Buffalo
16 Detroit
17 Baltimore
18 New York Giants
19 Chicago
20 Indianapolis
21 Atlanta
22 Dallas
23 St. Louis
24 Arizona
25 Jacksonville
26 New York Jets
27 Minnesota
28 Kansas City
29 Washington
30 Miami
31 Oakland
32 Philadelphia
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#11
Posted: 11/13/2012 4:49:32 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by c_had38:

GL, Sharp. I like all of 'em, except 'zona. With their D, I'd take DD pts 9/10 times, but I think this is a bad spot, even off the bye. Their offense is atrocious & I can see ATL being re-dedicated & P.O.'d @ home after perfect season was ruined last wk. But, just MO.

I'm w/ you on most of the others & not against you in any, so B.O.L.!


Thanks c_had.  

I think Ryan and Skelton will be under the same amount of pressure, and I also have the edge in the run game to Arizona.  I'm just going off my research on how double digit dogs have fared in games where they have a slight rushing efficiency advantage and similar numbers in sack rates.  Those results have been very favorable to the dog since week 4 of last season (of the weeks I've tested).  

I know everyone will say that Arizona's O line is much worse than Atlanta's, which they are.  But when matched up vs each other, the strength of Arizona's D line evens the playing field.

Good luck to you this week.
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#12
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:12:59 PM
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#13
Posted: 11/13/2012 5:15:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:

Rankings to come after the game tomorrow night or Tuesday morning.

Also, you'll call me crazy, but I think Cleveland has a good chance to beat Dallas next Sunday.


In my opinion Cleveland has absolutely no chance of beating Dallas this Sunday.  Furthermore, in MY opinion for what its worth, CLEVELAND has no chance of covering the 7.5 spread that is currently being shopped around. I believe Dallas wins by more than 14.

I don't care if Cleveland is coming off a bye week.  Dallas is ready to make a run in the next month.  They have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year which includes; 2 games vs the Giants, @ Baltimore(prior to the injuries to Ray Ray and the CB), @ Atlanta, @ Seattle, and hosted Chicago. Dallas defense is solid.  Garrett still sucks as a coach, I don't trust him.  Romo usually shows up against garbage teams like the Browns.  Browns can't score touchdowns.

DALLAS will ROLLLLLLLLLLLLLL the Browns!

I am with you on New Orleans, San/Den Over, and Buffalo. 

Best of luck with your picks though Sharp!
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#14
Posted: 11/14/2012 12:26:04 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

Only if  Jim Brown and Bernie Kosar come back....
  Think they might also even need Ozzie Newhsome.
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#15
Posted: 11/14/2012 1:00:58 AM
@enermo99 How you can say the Browns have NO chance of covering a 7.5 point spread is absurd.  The browns defense will keep them in the game.  But there is certainly no such thing as an y lock at -7.5 in this league
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Posted: 11/14/2012 3:09:24 AM
Thanks for the luck guys.


For those of you with big cojones, I'll be playing this parlay for a tenth of unit.  Will count it towards my units won/lost but not my overall W/L record.

Cincinnati ML
New Orleans ML
Denver ML
New England ML
Carolina ML
Arizona ML
Cleveland ML

Risking 0.1 to win 13.8 units
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Posted: 11/14/2012 9:18:09 PM
I'm waiting to see if Denver moves down to -7 (which I think it will) and if Indianapolis moves up to +10 (doubt it). I'll be on both of those should they move. Other than that, this is the final week 11 card. Good luck this week everyone.

2** Cleveland +7.5
2** New Orleans -4.5
2 ** Cincinnati -3 (-120)
Buffalo -1
Jacksonville +16
Arizona +10
San Diego/Denver Over 49.5
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Posted: 11/14/2012 10:07:18 PM

I've seen this Buffalo movie before. They play New England, give it everything they've got...  LOSE the game, and dump the next game (minimum)... and in most years SEVERAL games.

They will LOSE on Thursday, probably BIG. They used all their energy for New England (similar to the Jets a few weeks back, who then got blown out - at home - by the Dolphins)

The Dolphins laid an egg last week, and rested their starters in the 2nd half. They're refocused - guaranteed - and will play hard from start to finish.

It's very simple. Plain as day. So please refrain from thinking you're being "sharp" on that play.

I do LOVE Cinci, though.

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#19
Posted: 11/14/2012 10:25:36 PM
Good luck this week NFL
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Posted: 11/14/2012 10:50:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by InVegas:

I've seen this Buffalo movie before. They play New England, give it everything they've got...  LOSE the game, and dump the next game (minimum)... and in most years SEVERAL games.

They will LOSE on Thursday, probably BIG. They used all their energy for New England (similar to the Jets a few weeks back, who then got blown out - at home - by the Dolphins)

The Dolphins laid an egg last week, and rested their starters in the 2nd half. They're refocused - guaranteed - and will play hard from start to finish.

It's very simple. Plain as day. So please refrain from thinking you're being "sharp" on that play.

I do LOVE Cinci, though.


I suppose we'll see tomorrow night won't we..
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Posted: 11/14/2012 10:51:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spartacus10:

Good luck this week NFL

Thanks Spartacus.  Best of luck to you as well.
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#22
Posted: 11/15/2012 2:03:55 PM
You bet. Either way, good luck.
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#23
Posted: 11/15/2012 3:37:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

Only if  Jim Brown and Bernie Kosar come back....


or brian sipe or earnest byner ....


wondering as well if anyone noticed the New Orleans line opened on the big boards in LV at -6.5....it literally moved down within the same day or day after to -4.5.....offshore opened at -5.....

I don't like to overthink things but I'm thinking about it 
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Posted: 11/15/2012 7:31:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mylife23:



or brian sipe or earnest byner ....


wondering as well if anyone noticed the New Orleans line opened on the big boards in LV at -6.5....it literally moved down within the same day or day after to -4.5.....offshore opened at -5.....

I don't like to overthink things but I'm thinking about it 

I did notice.  Would be much more interesting if it had fallen to -3.  Not to worried about the 2 point move - don't think it's too significant.  NO has the advantage in nearly every significant statistical category.  These have lost in the past (rarely), but I'm very confident in the Saints here.
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#25
Posted: 11/16/2012 12:11:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoopsfan86:

@enermo99 How you can say the Browns have NO chance of covering a 7.5 point spread is absurd.  The browns defense will keep them in the game.  But there is certainly no such thing as an y lock at -7.5 in this league


Dallas is playing for their season.  They have survived the gauntlet of their season bye playing the NY Giants twice, @ Baltimore, @ Atlanta, @ Seattle, Chicago.

They start the more favorable part of their schedule.  Cleveland is fucken garbage.  THEY DO NOT SCORE TOUCHDOWNS!  They will be lucky to score one touchdown vs Dallas.  But, as I wrote previously, THAT IS IN MY OPINION. 

DALLAS will win 27-6.

And I will be laying it....


Goodluck with all your BETS!
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