Posted: 11/9/2012 12:43:31 AM
Originally Posted by LeagueCapper
Although we still picked up +1 unit last weekend, it felt like a losing Sunday all week thanks to the Cowboys being a huge disappointment.
I could name 9 different plays that could have changed the outcome of that game but the worst one was when the Cowboys lineman jumped on the forced fumble caused by Ware yet couldn't recover it. If you can't tell, I still can't get that game out of my head and the fact that the Cowboys didn't cover.Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
A team that is overvalued vs. a team that is undervalued. I said this last week but always be weary about teams that win in blowout fashion on Primetime TV.
The Broncos had two weeks to prepare for a Saints defense that is one-dimensional and now everyone thinks the Broncos defense is elite. It's not.
The Falcons easily put up 27 against them, the Texans easily put up 31 against them, the Patriots had their way with them and got everything they wanted putting up 31 in the first three quarters, even the Chargers put up 24 points in one half before self destructing in the 2nd half (Norv Turner).
I know the Panthers don't have as great of an offense as those teams but my point is that the Broncos defense is highly overvalued to this point.
I'll tell you who's defense isn't overvalued though, the Panthers.
Panthers defense past 4 weeks:RG3 - 58% completion, 215 yards, 4 sacks
Jay Cutler - 67% completion, 186 yards, 1 INT, 6 sacks
Tony Romo - 227 yards 1 TD
Russell Wilson - 221 yards, 2 INT, 2 sacks
Ron Rivera was put on the hot seat a few weeks ago after a troubled start and his defense has stepped up big time.
For reasons mentioned above, I like the Panthers to pull the upset this weekend. This is a non-conference game for the Broncos who have two divisional games following this week including a big one against the Chargers next week which could all but clinch the division.
TonyRome will probably hate me for saying this, but this game means very little to the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be playing desperate and the coach will be game-planning 12 hours a day all week as he is still on the hot seat.
Broncos are 11-23 ATS
week before playing the ChargersNew York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Love the Jets here off a bye. Jets have to travel cross country to play SEA who has the toughest home field advantage in the NFL. The Jets have no weapons on offense and just got blown out at home to the Dolphins. Despite that, books open the line juicing SEA at under a TD?
Rex Ryan was voted the most overrated coach in football this week, I can see him staying up 20 hours a day just to gameplan for this game.Tenneesee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (POW)
You have to love a team who's just been called out by their owner. Thanks to 'Rambler882' who pointed out that Bud Adams just put the entire Titans team including players and coaches on the hot seat.
"In my 50 years of owning an NFL franchise, I am at a loss to recall a regular-season home game that was such a disappointment for myself and fans of the Titans," said Adams. "We were grossly out-coached and outplayed from start to finish today. At this time, all aspects of the organization will be closely evaluated, including front office, coaches, and players over the next seven games. If performance and competitiveness does not improve, I will look at all alternatives to get back to having the Titans become a playoff and championship football team."---Teams who lose by 30+ points and are dogs between 3 and 6 are 11-2 ATS since 2007
---Dolphins have a divisional game coming up 4 days later.
Home favorites with a road game coming up on Thursday are 23-39-1 since 2007
---Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.
---Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.
---Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.
Panthers +4 3 units
Jets +6.5 2 units
Titans +6 5 units
Bengals +11 / Jaguars +10 1 unit
Panthers +11 / Titans +13 5 units
November: +1 unit
October: +54.9 units
Write up is awesome but the only thing i don't like is the stats with Denver not covering the week before they play the bolts. None of those Denver teams had Peyton as the qb. Bol