*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Showdown in Miami

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Showdown in Miami
JJ44 PM JJ44
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Posted: 11/8/2012 12:47:32 PM
hey leaguecapper I really respect your picks and write ups. I had a question and wanted to see what you thought about something. I sent you a friend request and if you could pm me back I would appreciate it.
hammertime360 PM hammertime360
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Posted: 11/8/2012 1:25:06 PM
 like them all.. GLUCK
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:08:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Bettin-Blaine:

Great work LC!!! I see your playing jax in a teaser...any reason your not playing them +3? Do u feel the colts are over valued here? BOL this Sunday.


Definitely, if this game was in INDY, switch 6 points for homefield adv and the colts would be -9 to -9.5. Would you take that bet? Seeing as this is a divisional game and that the Jaguars already beat them in INDY, no reason this spread should be the way it is. Luck is a stud but there defense is still bottom of the league. Your getting good value here with the Jags. I'm not playing them as i'm trying to be very selective with my plays and like other plays a bit more
Slevin07 PM Slevin07
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:08:42 PM
Jets line really stood out when I saw the lines for this week. Was hoping it would somehow hit +7, but still like it.

Great info on the Titans.

And that cowboys game last week hurt due to the money and being a fan (but I'm use to them screwing up by now). Don't know what to expect in their game this week.
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:09:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FlamingoBarnes:

Does jake locker starting have any affect on your tenn play?


From what i've seen so far, Locker and Hasselbeck are a wash in my opinion. Neither has done anything better than the other
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:09:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Numero_Uno:

League,

Not sure if you have ever considered this angle, but it fits squarely in with one of your picks.  When a team wins outright as a road dog the previous week and then is still a dog at home the next week, then you take the dog.  For whatever reason (perhaps just being undervalued) I have had great success with this trend.  I wish I did a better job of tracking the winning percentage I have had with it, but I do know that it sticks out to me as an angle that has helped win.  Anyways, for me, that is another reason to like Carolina.


Even better
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:10:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMC1984:

According to Covers closing lines, the Phins have covered a 3.5 or more line 3 times since 2008.

Dec. 21st 2008   -3.5 Over KC

Nov. 13th 2011    -4 Over Wash

Dec. 4th 2011     -3.5 Over Oak

 



Thanks for that, not sure why I see otherwise
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:11:35 PM
Might have one more play for Sunday. Will post it by tonight if so
Jmt908 PM Jmt908
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:20:45 PM
"A team that is overvalued vs. a team that is undervalued. I said this last week but always be weary about teams that win in blowout fashion on Primetime TV."

Which team won in a primetime blowout last week? panthers played skins @ 1pm and broncos played bengals @ 1pm I believe.
LaDaddy PM LaDaddy
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:27:29 PM
,gL
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 2:49:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jmt908:

"A team that is overvalued vs. a team that is undervalued. I said this last week but always be weary about teams that win in blowout fashion on Primetime TV."

Which team won in a primetime blowout last week? panthers played skins @ 1pm and broncos played bengals @ 1pm I believe.


Was talking about the Broncos blowing out the Saints on SNF two weeks ago. They'll be overvalued for weeks to come now.
MpJanz PM MpJanz
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Posted: 11/8/2012 3:31:34 PM
Good Luck ...
snake2710 PM snake2710
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Posted: 11/8/2012 3:36:07 PM
YOU ARE MY IDOL dude. You just have great stuff week after week and always really enjoy what you have to say and always rate your plays highly
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 4:19:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JJ44:

hey leaguecapper I really respect your picks and write ups. I had a question and wanted to see what you thought about something. I sent you a friend request and if you could pm me back I would appreciate it.


Done
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 4:21:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by snake2710:

YOU ARE MY IDOL dude. You just have great stuff week after week and always really enjoy what you have to say and always rate your plays highly


Appreciate the kind words buddy
TomE PM TomE
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Posted: 11/8/2012 4:34:04 PM
Your threads are must-read material for me. Another fine job here. Kudos and Thanks!
Love the picks, well...Jets and Ten. I do see the value in Car though at home. I just hope Den does not lose by more than 5 to kill my teaser.

Whenever I see the media making hay with something like "Ryan over-rated", I immediately consider going against it. Had the exact same reaction a couple of weeks ago when all I was hearing was the "Reid after-bye week" stuff.

BOL this week, I hope you go 3-0 (but I hope you only barely cover the Car - LOL).



si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 11/8/2012 4:51:32 PM
LC




Numero_Uno PM Numero_Uno
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:11:45 PM
While I am not going to make J'ville a play with any of my actual money in my 5dimes account, curious if you like them enough for an office pool.  Basically, we make five picks a week ATS and the winner is based on whoever has the best record at the end of the year.
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:42:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TomE:

Your threads are must-read material for me. Another fine job here. Kudos and Thanks!
Love the picks, well...Jets and Ten. I do see the value in Car though at home. I just hope Den does not lose by more than 5 to kill my teaser.

Whenever I see the media making hay with something like "Ryan over-rated", I immediately consider going against it. Had the exact same reaction a couple of weeks ago when all I was hearing was the "Reid after-bye week" stuff.

BOL this week, I hope you go 3-0 (but I hope you only barely cover the Car - LOL).





Best of luck on your teaser buddy. Normally I would never tease across 0 like that but will be rootin for ya
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:43:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Numero_Uno:

While I am not going to make J'ville a play with any of my actual money in my 5dimes account, curious if you like them enough for an office pool.  Basically, we make five picks a week ATS and the winner is based on whoever has the best record at the end of the year.


If I had to choose between colts or Jags ATS it would definitely be the Jags.
manutdfctts9899 PM manutdfctts9899
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:52:00 PM
BOL guys
SIMADMAN PM SIMADMAN
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Posted: 11/9/2012 12:00:00 AM

LC GREAT JOB AS ALWAYS. IM WITH YOU HEAVY ON THE PANTHERS THEY LOOK GOOD LATELY.AND SHOULD HAVE BEATEN THE BEARS TOO 

HARD FOR ME TO PLAY THE JETS WITH ALL THE BS LUCK SEA HAS GOTTEN THIS YEAR AND SANCHEZ AT QB (HE'S JUST AHEWAD OF GABBERT), NO PLAY FOIR ME ON THIS ONE

BOL

billyweather PM billyweather
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Posted: 11/9/2012 12:14:20 AM
Capper, BOL with your plays this weekend. I'm anxious to hear your thoughts on the Bears game Sunday night . Also, any advice on survivor pool pick this week? This one works differently than most and you can use teams more than once, however at this stage of the season, I cannot play a team favored by 7 or more. They just need to win the game of course. I was thinking about Seattle but seeing you on the Jets scares me. Also, any thoughts about possibly using the NYG? Also, scares me 3rd straight home game for the Bengals here. Thanks again, much respect
SmallTownCaps PM SmallTownCaps
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Posted: 11/9/2012 12:20:58 AM
Gonna be a long day for you...
Posted using a mobile device.
Dirtyturca PM Dirtyturca
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Posted: 11/9/2012 12:43:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Although we still picked up +1 unit last weekend, it felt like a losing Sunday all week thanks to the Cowboys being a huge disappointment.

I could name 9 different plays that could have changed the outcome of that game but the worst one was when the Cowboys lineman jumped on the forced fumble caused by Ware yet couldn't recover it. If you can't tell, I still can't get that game out of my head and the fact that the Cowboys didn't cover.

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

A team that is overvalued vs. a team that is undervalued. I said this last week but always be weary about teams that win in blowout fashion on Primetime TV.

The Broncos had two weeks to prepare for a Saints defense that is one-dimensional and now everyone thinks the Broncos defense is elite. It's not.

The Falcons easily put up 27 against them, the Texans easily put up 31 against them, the Patriots had their way with them and got everything they wanted putting up 31 in the first three quarters, even the Chargers put up 24 points in one half before self destructing in the 2nd half (Norv Turner).

I know the Panthers don't have as great of an offense as those teams but my point is that the Broncos defense is highly overvalued to this point.

I'll tell you who's defense isn't overvalued though, the Panthers.

Panthers defense past 4 weeks:

RG3 - 58% completion, 215 yards, 4 sacks
Jay Cutler - 67% completion, 186 yards, 1 INT, 6 sacks
Tony Romo - 227 yards 1 TD
Russell Wilson - 221 yards, 2 INT, 2 sacks


Ron Rivera was put on the hot seat a few weeks ago after a troubled start and his defense has stepped up big time.

For reasons mentioned above, I like the Panthers to pull the upset this weekend. This is a non-conference game for the Broncos who have two divisional games following this week including a big one against the Chargers next week which could all but clinch the division.

TonyRome will probably hate me for saying this, but this game means very little to the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be playing desperate and the coach will be game-planning 12 hours a day all week as he is still on the hot seat.

Broncos are 11-23 ATS week before playing the Chargers

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks

Love the Jets here off a bye. Jets have to travel cross country to play SEA who has the toughest home field advantage in the NFL. The Jets have no weapons on offense and just got blown out at home to the Dolphins. Despite that, books open the line juicing SEA at under a TD?

Rex Ryan was voted the most overrated coach in football this week, I can see him staying up 20 hours a day just to gameplan for this game.

Tenneesee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (POW)

You have to love a team who's just been called out by their owner. Thanks to 'Rambler882' who pointed out that Bud Adams just put the entire Titans team including players and coaches on the hot seat.

"In my 50 years of owning an NFL franchise, I am at a loss to recall a regular-season home game that was such a disappointment for myself and fans of the Titans," said Adams. "We were grossly out-coached and outplayed from start to finish today. At this time, all aspects of the organization will be closely evaluated, including front office, coaches, and players over the next seven games. If performance and competitiveness does not improve, I will look at all alternatives to get back to having the Titans become a playoff and championship football team."

---Teams who lose by 30+ points and are dogs between 3 and 6 are 11-2 ATS since 2007
---Dolphins have a divisional game coming up 4 days later.
Home favorites with a road game coming up on Thursday are 23-39-1 since 2007
---Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.
---Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.
---Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.



Panthers +4              3 units
Jets +6.5                   2  units
Titans +6                  5 units

Bengals +11 / Jaguars +10   1 unit
Panthers +11 / Titans +13    5 units

November: +1 unit
October: +54.9 units



Write up is awesome but the only thing i don't like is the stats with Denver not covering the week before they play the bolts.  None of those Denver teams had Peyton as the qb. Bol
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