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[NFL Betting] Topic: *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Showdown in Miami |
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LeagueCapper |
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#1 Posted: 11/8/2012 1:31:26 AM
I could name 9 different plays that could have changed the outcome of that game but the worst one was when the Cowboys lineman jumped on the forced fumble caused by Ware yet couldn't recover it. If you can't tell, I still can't get that game out of my head and the fact that the Cowboys didn't cover.
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
A team that is overvalued vs. a team that is undervalued. I said this last week but always be weary about teams that win in blowout fashion on Primetime TV.
The Broncos had two weeks to prepare for a Saints defense that is one-dimensional and now everyone thinks the Broncos defense is elite. It's not.
The Falcons easily put up 27 against them, the Texans easily put up 31 against them, the Patriots had their way with them and got everything they wanted putting up 31 in the first three quarters, even the Chargers put up 24 points in one half before self destructing in the 2nd half (Norv Turner).
I know the Panthers don't have as great of an offense as those teams but my point is that the Broncos defense is highly overvalued to this point.
I'll tell you who's defense isn't overvalued though, the Panthers.
Panthers defense past 4 weeks:
RG3 - 58% completion, 215 yards, 4 sacks
Jay Cutler - 67% completion, 186 yards, 1 INT, 6 sacks
Tony Romo - 227 yards 1 TD
Russell Wilson - 221 yards, 2 INT, 2 sacks
Ron Rivera was put on the hot seat a few weeks ago after a troubled start and his defense has stepped up big time.
For reasons mentioned above, I like the Panthers to pull the upset this weekend. This is a non-conference game for the Broncos who have two divisional games following this week including a big one against the Chargers next week which could all but clinch the division.
TonyRome will probably hate me for saying this, but this game means very little to the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be playing desperate and the coach will be game-planning 12 hours a day all week as he is still on the hot seat.
Broncos are 11-23 ATS week before playing the Chargers
New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Love the Jets here off a bye. Jets have to travel cross country to play SEA who has the toughest home field advantage in the NFL. The Jets have no weapons on offense and just got blown out at home to the Dolphins. Despite that, books open the line juicing SEA at under a TD?
Rex Ryan was voted the most overrated coach in football this week, I can see him staying up 20 hours a day just to gameplan for this game.
Tenneesee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (POW)
You have to love a team who's just been called out by their owner. Thanks to 'Rambler882' who pointed out that Bud Adams just put the entire Titans team including players and coaches on the hot seat.
"In my 50 years of owning an NFL franchise, I am at a loss to recall a regular-season home game that was such a disappointment for myself and fans of the Titans," said Adams. "We were grossly out-coached and outplayed from start to finish today. At this time, all aspects of the organization will be closely evaluated, including front office, coaches, and players over the next seven games. If performance and competitiveness does not improve, I will look at all alternatives to get back to having the Titans become a playoff and championship football team."
---Teams who lose by 30+ points and are dogs between 3 and 6 are 11-2 ATS since 2007
---Dolphins have a divisional game coming up 4 days later.
Home favorites with a road game coming up on Thursday are 23-39-1 since 2007
---Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.
---Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.
---Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.
Panthers +4 3 units
Jets +6.5 2 units
Titans +6 5 units
Bengals +11 / Jaguars +10 1 unit
Panthers +11 / Titans +13 5 units
November: +1 unit
October: +54.9 units
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PrimeTimeBoys |
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#2 Posted: 11/8/2012 1:46:13 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:
Panthers +4 3 units
Jets +6.5 2 units
Titans +6 5 units
Bengals +11 / Jaguars +10 1 unit
Panthers +11 / Titans +13 5 units
November: +1 unit
October: +54.9 units
Love the plays.......................  |
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BLAK_MAMBA |
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#3 Posted: 11/8/2012 1:51:17 AM |
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GiLmo574 |
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#4 Posted: 11/8/2012 1:55:59 AM
Solid stuff as always, LC.
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mika23g |
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#5 Posted: 11/8/2012 2:00:45 AM |
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carlos1321 |
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#6 Posted: 11/8/2012 2:01:46 AM |
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Xelorvegas |
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#7 Posted: 11/8/2012 2:08:04 AM
As for the week 10 card...I agree with all, you forgot to mention the panther game in ATL where the contained Ryan enough to win but but Marty ice pulled out a game winning fg. Denver def is suspect at best and I will wait for the public to push this number to 6 on game day.
Miami is terrible and so too is tenny, but that loss with the owners comments means they will at least show up and possibly win! 6 pts is a dream.
Jets in a must win spot off a bye, Seattle is one of the toughest spots to win, gbay and NE know that but look for jets to grind and take the points!
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MoneyHugger |
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#8 Posted: 11/8/2012 2:50:36 AM 
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Bettin-Blaine |
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#9 Posted: 11/8/2012 3:09:42 AM |
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BigPapa21 |
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#10 Posted: 11/8/2012 3:31:31 AM
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yamda |
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#11 Posted: 11/8/2012 7:25:24 AM |
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Rambler882 |
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#12 Posted: 11/8/2012 7:37:17 AM
Tailed all 3 for 2 units a piece (bankroll isn't big enough to go above that haha). Bought a half to get Car to 4, and the other two to 6.5.
Good luck! Sadly my local only does 6.5 pt teasers so I do not feel too comfortable just going to 12.5 points.
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FlamingoBarnes |
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#13 Posted: 11/8/2012 7:57:58 AM |
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#14 Posted: 11/8/2012 7:59:19 AM |
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bigkaptain |
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#15 Posted: 11/8/2012 8:32:20 AM love the titans play |
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Numero_Uno |
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#16 Posted: 11/8/2012 8:53:05 AM |
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Spideysense |
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#17 Posted: 11/8/2012 9:37:45 AM
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Numero_Uno |
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#18 Posted: 11/8/2012 9:51:03 AM
Not sure if you have ever considered this angle, but it fits squarely in with one of your picks. When a team wins outright as a road dog the previous week and then is still a dog at home the next week, then you take the dog. For whatever reason (perhaps just being undervalued) I have had great success with this trend. I wish I did a better job of tracking the winning percentage I have had with it, but I do know that it sticks out to me as an angle that has helped win. Anyways, for me, that is another reason to like Carolina. |
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JMC1984 |
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#19 Posted: 11/8/2012 10:34:41 AM According to Covers closing lines, the Phins have covered a 3.5 or more line 3 times since 2008.
Dec. 21st 2008 -3.5 Over KC
Nov. 13th 2011 -4 Over Wash
Dec. 4th 2011 -3.5 Over Oak
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clubtnt |
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#20 Posted: 11/8/2012 10:42:01 AM
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#21 Posted: 11/8/2012 10:49:09 AM
Best of luck.
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tonyrome |
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#22 Posted: 11/8/2012 11:05:54 AM
GL
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bobafett |
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#23 Posted: 11/8/2012 11:14:19 AM |
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#24 Posted: 11/8/2012 11:16:08 AM  |
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Dolphan |
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#25 Posted: 11/8/2012 11:26:46 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett: u said the dolphins have a division game 4 days later....how ? MIA travels to BUF for the thurs night game next week
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