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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Showdown in Miami
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/8/2012 1:31:26 AM
Although we still picked up +1 unit last weekend, it felt like a losing Sunday all week thanks to the Cowboys being a huge disappointment.

I could name 9 different plays that could have changed the outcome of that game but the worst one was when the Cowboys lineman jumped on the forced fumble caused by Ware yet couldn't recover it. If you can't tell, I still can't get that game out of my head and the fact that the Cowboys didn't cover.

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

A team that is overvalued vs. a team that is undervalued. I said this last week but always be weary about teams that win in blowout fashion on Primetime TV.

The Broncos had two weeks to prepare for a Saints defense that is one-dimensional and now everyone thinks the Broncos defense is elite. It's not.

The Falcons easily put up 27 against them, the Texans easily put up 31 against them, the Patriots had their way with them and got everything they wanted putting up 31 in the first three quarters, even the Chargers put up 24 points in one half before self destructing in the 2nd half (Norv Turner).

I know the Panthers don't have as great of an offense as those teams but my point is that the Broncos defense is highly overvalued to this point.

I'll tell you who's defense isn't overvalued though, the Panthers.

Panthers defense past 4 weeks:

RG3 - 58% completion, 215 yards, 4 sacks
Jay Cutler - 67% completion, 186 yards, 1 INT, 6 sacks
Tony Romo - 227 yards 1 TD
Russell Wilson - 221 yards, 2 INT, 2 sacks


Ron Rivera was put on the hot seat a few weeks ago after a troubled start and his defense has stepped up big time.

For reasons mentioned above, I like the Panthers to pull the upset this weekend. This is a non-conference game for the Broncos who have two divisional games following this week including a big one against the Chargers next week which could all but clinch the division.

TonyRome will probably hate me for saying this, but this game means very little to the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be playing desperate and the coach will be game-planning 12 hours a day all week as he is still on the hot seat.

Broncos are 11-23 ATS week before playing the Chargers

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks

Love the Jets here off a bye. Jets have to travel cross country to play SEA who has the toughest home field advantage in the NFL. The Jets have no weapons on offense and just got blown out at home to the Dolphins. Despite that, books open the line juicing SEA at under a TD?

Rex Ryan was voted the most overrated coach in football this week, I can see him staying up 20 hours a day just to gameplan for this game.

Tenneesee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (POW)

You have to love a team who's just been called out by their owner. Thanks to 'Rambler882' who pointed out that Bud Adams just put the entire Titans team including players and coaches on the hot seat.

"In my 50 years of owning an NFL franchise, I am at a loss to recall a regular-season home game that was such a disappointment for myself and fans of the Titans," said Adams. "We were grossly out-coached and outplayed from start to finish today. At this time, all aspects of the organization will be closely evaluated, including front office, coaches, and players over the next seven games. If performance and competitiveness does not improve, I will look at all alternatives to get back to having the Titans become a playoff and championship football team."

---Teams who lose by 30+ points and are dogs between 3 and 6 are 11-2 ATS since 2007
---Dolphins have a divisional game coming up 4 days later.
Home favorites with a road game coming up on Thursday are 23-39-1 since 2007
---Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year.
---Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.
---Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.



Panthers +4              3 units
Jets +6.5                   2  units
Titans +6                  5 units

Bengals +11 / Jaguars +10   1 unit
Panthers +11 / Titans +13    5 units

November: +1 unit
October: +54.9 units

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PrimeTimeBoys send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#2
Posted: 11/8/2012 1:46:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

 


Panthers +4              3 units
Jets +6.5                   2  units
Titans +6                  5 units

Bengals +11 / Jaguars +10   1 unit
Panthers +11 / Titans +13    5 units

November: +1 unit
October: +54.9 units



Love the plays.......................
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#3
Posted: 11/8/2012 1:51:17 AM
Thanks for your work man!! Bol
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#4
Posted: 11/8/2012 1:55:59 AM
I'll be on the Titans as well  -  but waiting till Sunday morning as I'm more then sure I'll get them with the extra point to boot.


Solid stuff as always, LC.    


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#5
Posted: 11/8/2012 2:00:45 AM
Great plays. Denver's defense is on the rise! But I like all your picks
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#6
Posted: 11/8/2012 2:01:46 AM
bol
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#7
Posted: 11/8/2012 2:08:04 AM
LC- ditto on the cowboys game!
As for the week 10 card...I agree with all, you forgot to mention the panther game in ATL where the contained Ryan enough to win but but Marty ice pulled out a game winning fg. Denver def is suspect at best and I will wait for the public to push this number to 6 on game day.
Miami is terrible and so too is tenny, but that loss with the owners comments means they will at least show up and possibly win! 6 pts is a dream.
Jets in a must win spot off a bye, Seattle is one of the toughest spots to win, gbay and NE know that but look for jets to grind and take the points!
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#8
Posted: 11/8/2012 2:50:36 AM
Always a good read, Tks LC!!!  BOL this week!!! 
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#9
Posted: 11/8/2012 3:09:42 AM
Great work LC!!! I see your playing jax in a teaser...any reason your not playing them +3? Do u feel the colts are over valued here? BOL this Sunday.
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#10
Posted: 11/8/2012 3:31:31 AM
GL Capper...I'm with you on the Dallas game. I was 2-0 before that game. Would have made a great day. The whole thing at the end also stunk. A big percentage of coachs try to get the first down there and end the game that way. Between that decision and harbough taking 2 points off the board on the thurdays night game I'm 0-2...lol oh well...have a great week 
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#11
Posted: 11/8/2012 7:25:24 AM
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#12
Posted: 11/8/2012 7:37:17 AM
Thank you for sharing.

Tailed all 3 for 2 units a piece (bankroll isn't big enough to go above that haha).  Bought a half to get Car to 4, and the other two to 6.5.

Good luck!  Sadly my local only does 6.5 pt teasers so I do not feel too comfortable just going to 12.5 points.
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#13
Posted: 11/8/2012 7:57:58 AM
Lets not act like dallas handed the cover to atl because they didnt. Atl controlled the entire game and Matt Bryant missed 2 FGs that are usually chipshots for him.
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#14
Posted: 11/8/2012 7:59:19 AM
Does jake locker starting have any affect on your tenn play?
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#15
Posted: 11/8/2012 8:32:20 AM

love the titans play

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#16
Posted: 11/8/2012 8:53:05 AM
Like two of the three plays, but can't get with you on the Jets.  Mildly surprised to not see Cincy as a straight-up play.  At any rate, it looks like another winning weekend for you and thanks for taking the time to post your insights.    
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#17
Posted: 11/8/2012 9:37:45 AM
darn the cowboys last week, worst game ever lol. Love the picks
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#18
Posted: 11/8/2012 9:51:03 AM
League,

Not sure if you have ever considered this angle, but it fits squarely in with one of your picks.  When a team wins outright as a road dog the previous week and then is still a dog at home the next week, then you take the dog.  For whatever reason (perhaps just being undervalued) I have had great success with this trend.  I wish I did a better job of tracking the winning percentage I have had with it, but I do know that it sticks out to me as an angle that has helped win.  Anyways, for me, that is another reason to like Carolina.
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#19
Posted: 11/8/2012 10:34:41 AM

According to Covers closing lines, the Phins have covered a 3.5 or more line 3 times since 2008.

Dec. 21st 2008   -3.5 Over KC

Nov. 13th 2011    -4 Over Wash

Dec. 4th 2011     -3.5 Over Oak

 

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#20
Posted: 11/8/2012 10:42:01 AM
you've confirmed my titans and jets picks
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#21
Posted: 11/8/2012 10:49:09 AM
Surprised not to see you on the Rams this week. Love the Panthers play.

Best of luck.
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#22
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:05:54 AM
Very interesting.
GL
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#23
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:14:19 AM
i felt  denver was overvalued last week against cincy....human nature will cause me to second guess the carolina play...but i do like it though....
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#24
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:16:08 AM
u said the dolphins have a division game 4 days later....how ?
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#25
Posted: 11/8/2012 11:26:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett:

u said the dolphins have a division game 4 days later....how ?
MIA travels to BUF for the thurs night game next week
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