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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL_Sharp Week 10 Picks and Rankings
NFL_Sharp send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 11/6/2012 3:52:45 PM
Overall Record: 7-6, +1.3 units

Tampa Bay -3 (-120)
Dallas +1 
Oakland +7.5 
Detroit -1 (-125)
Ind/Jac Over 42.5
Hou/Chi Under 41.5

New Orleans will be a play, but I'll wait to see if I can a better number. If I can get Denver -3 at a good number I'll be on that as well.  Rankings to follow.  Good luck to everyone this week.
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Posted: 11/6/2012 3:53:27 PM
Here are my rankings heading into Week 10 - again, these are just rankings (adjusted for SOS) of each team over their last 3 games, not the entire season to date. They are efficiency rankings - points scored and wins/losses are not accounted for at all, except to the extent that efficiency affects points/wins/losses (which is a significant amount).

Overall Rankings
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 San Francisco
4 Pittsburgh
5 Carolina
6 Houston
7 New Orleans
8 Detroit
9 New England
10 Dallas
11 Tampa Bay
12 New York Jets
13 New York Giants
14 Buffalo
15 Green Bay
16 Cleveland
17 Chicago
18 Atlanta
19 Cinicnnati
20 Jacksonville
21 Arizona
22 St. Louis
23 Baltimore
24 Oakland
25 Tennessee
26 Indianapolis
27 San Diego
28 Washington
29 Miami
30 Minnesota
31 Philadelphia
32 Kansas City
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Posted: 11/6/2012 3:53:49 PM
Offensive Rankings
1 New Orleans
2 Denver
3 New England
4 Tampa Bay
5 Seattle
6 Detroit
7 San Francisco
8 Green Bay
9 Atlanta
10 Tennessee
11 Indianapolis
12 St. Louis
13 Pittsburgh
14 Dallas
15 Carolina
16 Buffalo
17 Cinicnnati
18 Washington
19 Houston
20 Miami
21 Baltimore
22 New York Giants
23 Arizona
24 Chicago
25 Oakland
26 Jacksonville
27 Cleveland
28 New York Jets
29 San Diego
30 Philadelphia
31 Minnesota
32 Kansas City
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Posted: 11/6/2012 3:54:06 PM
Defensive Rankings
1 Denver
2 New York Jets
3 Carolina
4 Pittsburgh
5 San Francisco
6 Houston
7 New York Giants
8 Cleveland
9 Chicago
10 Seattle
11 Jacksonville
12 Dallas
13 Buffalo
14 Arizona
15 Baltimore
16 Oakland
17 San Diego
18 Cinicnnati
19 Minnesota
20 Detroit
21 Green Bay
22 New Orleans
23 Atlanta
24 New England
25 Miami
26 Philadelphia
27 Tampa Bay
28 St. Louis
29 Washington
30 Indianapolis
31 Tennessee
32 Kansas City
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#5
Posted: 11/6/2012 4:58:59 PM
Sharp,

Love your picks. What did you see on the OAK game? Baltimore is 4-0 at home, in the last 10 games they played together BAL covered 8-10 games. Your insight is much appreciated
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Posted: 11/7/2012 3:37:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigLick08:

Sharp,

Love your picks. What did you see on the OAK game? Baltimore is 4-0 at home, in the last 10 games they played together BAL covered 8-10 games. Your insight is much appreciated

The offenses are very similar, no real clear edge to either side except for Oakland turning it over a bit more (and turnovers are unpredictable).  Defensive, as a whole, is very similar as well.  Baltimore holds a slight edge in the passing game, but Oakland has the slightest of edges in the run department.  What makes this a play for me is Oakland's superior offensive and defensive lines.  Oakland's adjusted offensive sack(ed) rate is 32% lower and defensive sack rate is 31% higher than Baltimore's.  It would be a no play for me at 6.5, but because I can get more than a TD with superior lines on both sides of the ball (and similar offensive/defensive efficiencies), I'll take the dog.  I don't take much stock in previous games as most are completely independent of current games.

Best of luck to you this week!
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:17:39 AM
Adding Houston +1
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:23:20 AM
Adding another unit to Tampa Bay -3 for a total of 2** at -115 combined. 

Still waiting on New Orleans and hoping for Denver.
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#9
Posted: 11/8/2012 7:16:29 AM
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#10
Posted: 11/8/2012 8:38:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:


The offenses are very similar, no real clear edge to either side except for Oakland turning it over a bit more (and turnovers are unpredictable).  Defensive, as a whole, is very similar as well.  Baltimore holds a slight edge in the passing game, but Oakland has the slightest of edges in the run department.  What makes this a play for me is Oakland's superior offensive and defensive lines.  Oakland's adjusted offensive sack(ed) rate is 32% lower and defensive sack rate is 31% higher than Baltimore's.  It would be a no play for me at 6.5, but because I can get more than a TD with superior lines on both sides of the ball (and similar offensive/defensive efficiencies), I'll take the dog.  I don't take much stock in previous games as most are completely independent of current games.

Best of luck to you this week!

Not saying I disagree with your play because I'm not sure I do. Baltimore has just been pedestrian as of late and their offense that began the season firing and running the hurry up has slowed down and has become unproductive. The problem I have with it is that McFadden and backup Goodson both suffered high ankle sprains last week and I would be absolutely shocked if they played this game. After McFadden went down last week (sometime in the first half) Oakland attempted less than 3 rushing attempts for the rest of the game and by the way they were winning at halftime so its not like they were fighting from behind the whole time. I can't say for sure but I want to say there was only 1 rush attempt after that. They will be starting FB Marcel Reece at HB who made plays in the passing game but no rushes. Also, Oakland playing an early game on the east coast is never that good but they performed well earlier this season in that situation against atlanta I believe. 

That being said I think I agree with you I'm just not 100% sure. Will most likely lay off personally but I think it will win. BOL Sharp
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:38:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by yamda:


Thanks yamda.  Good luck to you this week.
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Posted: 11/8/2012 5:51:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KCsFinest829:


Not saying I disagree with your play because I'm not sure I do. Baltimore has just been pedestrian as of late and their offense that began the season firing and running the hurry up has slowed down and has become unproductive. The problem I have with it is that McFadden and backup Goodson both suffered high ankle sprains last week and I would be absolutely shocked if they played this game. After McFadden went down last week (sometime in the first half) Oakland attempted less than 3 rushing attempts for the rest of the game and by the way they were winning at halftime so its not like they were fighting from behind the whole time. I can't say for sure but I want to say there was only 1 rush attempt after that. They will be starting FB Marcel Reece at HB who made plays in the passing game but no rushes. Also, Oakland playing an early game on the east coast is never that good but they performed well earlier this season in that situation against atlanta I believe. 

That being said I think I agree with you I'm just not 100% sure. Will most likely lay off personally but I think it will win. BOL Sharp

The RB position as a whole is vastly overrated.  Sure, a guy with break-away speed can turn a 25 yard gain into a 75 yard TD, but that space and those plays are rare in this day and age.  So much depends on blocking, and at this level, most guys are similar enough in ability that their VOR is not that high, if even significant.  McFadden has the ability to be a game changer, I don't disagree with that.  But over the last 5 weeks he has averaged less than 3 yards per carry in 4 of those 5, and 3.9 vs the lowly Chiefs (for the season he is at 3.3 yards per carry).  I would bet that almost any back in the league could rush for 3 yards per carry behind the Raiders's line.  He has 190 yards receiving over the course of the entire year.  Reece had 95 last week vs Tampa alone, albeit as Oakland was throwing the ball more due to the score.  For a 6'3, 240 lb FB, Reece actually has some speed.  His size and athleticism will cause problems for a porous Ravens' run D that gives up 130 rushing YPG and 4.9 yards per carry over the last 3 (the majority of the time in which Ray Lewis has been out).  In my opinion, if McFadden and Goodson being out inflates the line a little higher than it would normally be, there is actually an advantage to them sitting.  
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Posted: 11/9/2012 5:54:04 AM
A few more adds.  Here is the final card:

2** Tampa Bay -3 (-115 combined)
Dallas +1 
Oakland +7.5 
Detroit -1 (-125)
Houston +1
New Orleans +3 (-125)
Tennessee +6
Ind/Jac Over 42.5
Hou/Chi Under 41.5

Will be adding the Broncos if they line should move to -3 for some reason.  Think Seattle is a strong play also, but the Jets' bye is scaring me away.  Best of luck to everyone this week.
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Posted: 11/11/2012 11:40:41 AM
Adding:  Denver -3 (-125)
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Posted: 11/12/2012 12:04:10 AM
7-2 today, +5.65 units

Updated Record:  14-9, +6.95 units


Hope everyone had a good day.  I'll be back with next week's plays as soon as I get the stats updated and numbers ran.
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#16
Posted: 11/12/2012 5:44:30 PM
Any Monday night leans?
Pitt should blow out KC, What do you think?
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Posted: 11/12/2012 6:51:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Nucci74:

Any Monday night leans?
Pitt should blow out KC, What do you think?

My numbers point to a Steelers blowout (34-6 to be exact).  But a couple categories don't meet my standards to make them a play.  And I also avoid double digit faves like the plague.  But I will say, if I were forced to choose a side, I would go Steelers.
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