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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Panthers/Bears
mrusso
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mrusso
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#1
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:36:34 AM

One with a 4 game winning streak, one with a 4 game losing streak. Easy huh? It already smells.

 CAR is 1-5, but throw out the blowout @ the Giants week 3, and the Panthers have lost the other 4 games by a combined 17 points. And this to ATL, DAL, SEA, and TB, All 5 of those opponents collectively sport a sterling 21-12 record. Their 2 road losses, @ ATL and @ TB, were by 2 and 6 points.

Meanwhile, the Bears 5 wins, INDY, DET, STL, JAGS, and DAL, check in with a combined record of only 12-19.

Let's face it, the Panthers season, and Ron Rivera's job, is already on the line. The firing of GM Marty Hurney on Monday will have everyone wondering about their jobs. FEAR, what a great motivator.

Despite recent defensive losses to Beason and Gamble, I look for Carolina to come in an angry team, a wounded dog mentality, against a Bears team with a very good defense but a very mediocre offense led by 25th rated passer Jay Cutler. I'll grant you, Newton isn't rated that much higher, but we all know what he can do with his legs. In fact, Newton led the Panthers to over 500 yards of offense last year in a 5 point loss at CHI. Perhaps that game film he's studying right now will give him some much needed confidence.  His improvisation will reap rewards tomorrow, that is, if the Panthers expect to have a shot at winning.

And since we brought up last years game, to be fair, Matt Forte ran for over 200 yards, and 166 in 2010 against CAR, so fantasy players may want to consider Mr. Forte.

These teams have played 5 times since 2005, the road team checks in @ 4-0-1 ATS. I don't know what the ATS record is when teams on 4 game winning streaks play teams on 4 game losing streaks but I suspect it would be favorable number for the Carolina Panthers of the world.

A supreme effort by Carolina will be required and I believe professional pride will keep this one close. They will be focused. A Panther win would not surprise me. After all, this is the NFL...

CAROLINA +8

Good luck to all!

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#2
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:39:48 AM
Got it at 9 earlier in the week.
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mrusso
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#3
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:46:37 AM
Stevedore, good for you, I see it down to 7.5 in alot of places now. I think the people in the know may be backing the big road dog here too. GL
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#4
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:54:33 AM
The way the dog been barking - I wouldn't be surprise if Carolina win outright.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#5
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:57:30 AM
Think you under estimate the bears D pride.... Guys on that side of the ball cant shut up about how bad last years performance still sticks in their craw and they don't like watching the tape... something they have done a lot of this week.. Look for steve smith to have tillman and a safety overtop all game long and run around doing what he does best, talking smack, not however catching balls....

As for offense bears have been effective but not explosive necessarily, look for them to pound the ball with both great backs and control the tempo. Panthers Averge TOP is near 28 and the bears is around 33 minutes a game... Look for this trend to continue tommorrow. 

All that being said I think the panthers will come to play and I didn't like the line at -9,8,7, or whatever, I took ML.

Wild card in this game however is the Mentality of panthers.... R they packing it in already? Cam looks like he is after last few games, could get ugly if bears score quickly and smack around cam leaving him only to think of what a high draft pick would do for his prospects... If they couldn't fix it after a bye I don't see them doing so in a week when everyone is polishing their resume's.... Bears take the game but I think only by 7-10 points, could be closer however if panthers are mentally tough......

Opps I forgot to mention... Brandon Marshall on 2nd string corner...... could be a big mismatch if Cutler has time in/out of pocket.
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mrusso
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#6
Posted: 10/28/2012 1:16:22 AM
Bad, I don't underestimate the Bears "D" or pride in any way. They have my and I'm sure the Panthers respect too. They will be the best unit on the field tomorrow, no question. Football's a funny game though and and an athletic QB can neutralize a good defense and drive them crazy. Of course, the other 21 guys have to play too. Only 6 games into the season, too soon for anyone to pack it in. I really believe CAR will put forth their best effort of the season and believe that will keep things close. Human nature just won't allow your intensity to get to a higher level when you play a 1-5 team, try as you may, especially when you're team is 5-1 and in first place. But hey, that's why they play the game. Thanks for your input!
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#7
Posted: 10/28/2012 3:09:05 AM

ATS trends for teams on a 4 game losing streak vs teams on a 4 game winning streak:

ATS 45-38-0 
SUP 24-59-0
 OU 44-35-5

Teams on a 4 game L streak are covering at 54.21% clip

Heard a tout talking about this game on a podcast and he pointed out that CAROLINA and CHICAGO are tied for 8th in the league in offensive and defensive yards per play differential.

Like the ATS on road team for this series.

Nice points made for and against in this thread - good write ups. Didn't give this game much thought all week but for some reason I've been starting to look at CAR but still unsure.

Also, don't get trapped into the argument that the BEARS are off of MNF and do for a letdown on a short week. These are the scores for the last 4 times they played after MNF.

CHI 38 NYJ 34
CHI 39 MIN 10
CHI 37 DET 13
CHI 41 JAX 3

Good Luck!

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#8
Posted: 10/28/2012 3:10:51 AM

Should read ...

tied for 8th in the league in offensive and defensive yards per play differential combined.

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#9
Posted: 10/28/2012 3:13:05 AM
I wonder if Cam Newton closes his eyes while he throws.
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#10
Posted: 10/28/2012 3:53:59 AM
Dont get me wrong, I love betting underdogs but I think a lot of people are getting too cute with this Carolina play.
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#11
Posted: 10/28/2012 5:22:49 AM
Goodluck with the public dog
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#12
Posted: 10/28/2012 5:50:15 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by KyleBowler:

Dont get me wrong, I love betting underdogs but I think a lot of people are getting too cute with this Carolina play.

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#13
Posted: 10/28/2012 7:53:31 AM
I have a huge favorite 13 team NCAA/NFL moneyline parlay down to just the Packers and Bears as the last legs - considering a middle here with Carolina +7.5. Could hit on both plays and that'd be awesome.
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Orangemen44
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#14
Posted: 10/28/2012 8:07:25 AM
GL
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mrusso
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#15
Posted: 10/28/2012 11:51:50 AM

Shivas, nice info, especially on the 4 game ATS. Would've thought a little higher than 54% but figured I was on the right side there. I consider fading MNF winners @ home that are on the road the next week. In spurts over the years, I've had success with that play. Thanks again and good luck to you.

Davenz, most everything I'm seeing shows the Bears picking up about 60% of the action on this game so not sure how CAR is a "public dog favorite."

Kylebower, I guess I don't understand the concept of a "cute play," when a 1-5 team plays a 5-1 team. Perhaps "crazy" may have been more aprapo.

Pujols, have to like your chances with just wins for GB and CHI. Take the points with CAR to insure your initial bet. Good luck!

Orange, GL brother

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#16
Posted: 10/28/2012 11:55:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KyleBowler:

Dont get me wrong, I love betting underdogs but I think a lot of people are getting too cute with this Carolina play.
i'm with you Kyle!!  BEARS ROLL
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#17
Posted: 10/28/2012 11:58:17 AM
GL mrusso 

Like the Panthers got it @ +8.5
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mrusso
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#18
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:21:19 PM
Thanks Macwestie. GL yourself
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#19
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:28:08 PM
BOL today, Love the butt pic russo
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mrusso
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#20
Posted: 10/28/2012 12:51:28 PM

I'm not a big over/under player but I'm locked in on MIA/NYJ under 39. With some inclement weather, I'm lovin' this pick today (made the play a couple of days ago), especially when it's division opponents lacking offensive playmakers.

MIA/NYJ under 39 

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