Posted:
#1
YTD: 22-12 ATS
Baltimore +7
This line is an overreaction. It opened 4.5 and should have stayed there. I get that losing Webb and Lewis are huge losses for the Ravens and I'm a guy that believes their Super Bowl aspirations are now toast. You don't lose a Top 5 corner and your defensive captain/emotional leader and survive a full season and playoff run on that side of the ball. The offenses in this league and too good nowadays come playoff time. However, in a one game "next man up" type of game where the injuries can serve as a rallying point for the entire organization I do believe they can survive without those guys. It's not like this team is suddenly crap. They've got a very good offense and still have good players and a good system on defense. The betting markets are pretty sour on this group right now after burning the money in 4 straight games and now with all the injuries. Good spot to buy low.
The Texans are not a blowout type of team. Asking them to win by over a TD against a good team is a stretch when they don't have an explosive offense. Addressing the part of the Ravens giving up 200+ rush yards in two st right games let's remember that this isn't hidden or overlooked information. Everyone is well aware of this and expect them to be worse without Lewis. But there really isn't anywhere to go but up. It's not like they are suddenly going to give up 300 yards rushing to the Texans. I still don't know if Houston is that good, they are only +0.4 net YPP and offensively they are 19th in the league in that department. Another thing to keep in mind is that Houston has not beaten a winning team by more than 7 points in over two years!
Jacksonville +6
I'm well aware that the Jags may be the worst team in the league. The thing is in my view Oakland is almost just as bad. They looked pretty good last week but they were off their bye against a Falcons team that may have been looking forward to theirs. Consider Oakland outgained Atlanta by almost 200 yards and 2 yards a play and still found a way to lose the game. That is exactly what bad teams do. And on top of that bad teams are inconsistent and rarely play two straight good games. I've seen it mentioned that the Raiders will have a letdown after such a tough loss last week. I don't agree with that at all. This team still has hope and this is a winnable game. You letdown in these spots off a tough loss when you are 2-10 and playing out the string as a dead team. I expect Oakland to play bad because they are bad and they aren't consistent, not because they had a tough loss last week. The Raiders do exactly nothing well and should not be favored by this much over a decent college team. Oakland is a negative net YPP team and are ranked in the bottom 10 in 3rd down % and red zone % on BOTH offense and defense. This Oakland franchise is 9-25 ATS since the last time they had a winning season.
This is a relatively good spot for Jacksonville. They get a bad team off a good game in an unfamiliar role. They also come off the bye themselves catching probably an inflated number after being drubbed at home their last two games. If they are ever going to put together a good game this is as good of a spot as any.
New England -10 -115
I rarely if ever lay double digits in the NFL but this is a situation where I feel it is warranted. The Jets are not a 3-3 football team. Offensively they are anemic and defensively they are down more than just a couple of notches. They are able to compete with the Colts and Bills of the world in games where they can run the ball and play from ahead. Their offense simply does not have the tools to play catch up and they will need to in this game. The Patriots have legitimate concerns in the secondary again but the front 7 is stout and they should bottle up the Jets run game from the start. The Steelers, 49ers, and Texans are playoff type teams that the Jets have played this season and possess similar front 7's as the Pats where they can stop the Jets run game forcing them to throw. In those three games the Jets have trailed for 127 minutes and have scored ONE offensive TD. Think about that. One offensive TD in over 8 quarters of playing from behind. It's staggering when you think about and speaks to just how bad the Jets are when they are forced to play catch up.
A danger with favs this big is that they sometimes overlook their opponents. I do not see that scenario at all here. First of all these teams are rivals and always get up to play each other. Secondly the Pats run scores up often especially if they get the chance against the Jets. Finally the Pats are off a loss. Their record off a loss speaks for itself but last week was a truly frustrating loss. Most people think the secondary lost the game late giving up some big passes but if you take a closer look it was the offense that played badly. They made a plethora of uncharacteristic mistakes for them including penalties, intentional grounding costing them points, and horrendous play in the redzone. New England was only 1 of 6 in the redzone in Seattle. I expect this offense to be markedly sharper this week and if they get up on the Jets it will be a Sanchez turnover and sackfest. This game just looks like a 38-10 smacking.
St. Louis +5
Last week was a great spot for the Packers to make a statement and prove the doubters wrong and they did just that. The thing is those doubters existed for a reason and that reason is because Green Bay isn't an elite team this year. In fact you could argue they are just barely above average. Going into last week this team was especially fired up and had the spotlight to prove everyone wrong. Now that the bandwagon has filled up again and everyone who has seen their schedule has them penciled in for 3 more easy wins before their bye week could it not be argued that this Packer team may come in a little complacent? Remember before last week this Packer team had not looked impressive and had covered 1 of 5 games.
I said way back earlier in the year I may auto play the Rams as home dogs all season. So far they are perfect in that role and are an overlooked 5-1 ATS. This team plays hard every week, that much has been established from Week 1. However, the bonus is they are also very young and have a new coaching staff. That is a plus because when a young team consistently plays hard over time they gain experience and become familiar with their new systems which in turn makes them better. This team seems to get better every week. This is also a good matchup for the Rams. They can run the ball and slow the game down against a Packers defense that is playing without 4 starters. In addition to defensive depth being a concern, one good game and people forget the Packers offensive line reeks. They cannot run the ball a lick and they sit 31st in the NFL in sack percentage allowed only ahead of the Cardinals woeful offensive line. In a dome and on the road against a good defensive line that is Top 10 in sacks and sack % is not a place for a bad offensive line to play well. I expect this game to be close throughout.
Looking at one more, hopefully the line moves a little. We'll see. GL this week gents.
Baltimore +7
This line is an overreaction. It opened 4.5 and should have stayed there. I get that losing Webb and Lewis are huge losses for the Ravens and I'm a guy that believes their Super Bowl aspirations are now toast. You don't lose a Top 5 corner and your defensive captain/emotional leader and survive a full season and playoff run on that side of the ball. The offenses in this league and too good nowadays come playoff time. However, in a one game "next man up" type of game where the injuries can serve as a rallying point for the entire organization I do believe they can survive without those guys. It's not like this team is suddenly crap. They've got a very good offense and still have good players and a good system on defense. The betting markets are pretty sour on this group right now after burning the money in 4 straight games and now with all the injuries. Good spot to buy low.
The Texans are not a blowout type of team. Asking them to win by over a TD against a good team is a stretch when they don't have an explosive offense. Addressing the part of the Ravens giving up 200+ rush yards in two st right games let's remember that this isn't hidden or overlooked information. Everyone is well aware of this and expect them to be worse without Lewis. But there really isn't anywhere to go but up. It's not like they are suddenly going to give up 300 yards rushing to the Texans. I still don't know if Houston is that good, they are only +0.4 net YPP and offensively they are 19th in the league in that department. Another thing to keep in mind is that Houston has not beaten a winning team by more than 7 points in over two years!
Jacksonville +6
I'm well aware that the Jags may be the worst team in the league. The thing is in my view Oakland is almost just as bad. They looked pretty good last week but they were off their bye against a Falcons team that may have been looking forward to theirs. Consider Oakland outgained Atlanta by almost 200 yards and 2 yards a play and still found a way to lose the game. That is exactly what bad teams do. And on top of that bad teams are inconsistent and rarely play two straight good games. I've seen it mentioned that the Raiders will have a letdown after such a tough loss last week. I don't agree with that at all. This team still has hope and this is a winnable game. You letdown in these spots off a tough loss when you are 2-10 and playing out the string as a dead team. I expect Oakland to play bad because they are bad and they aren't consistent, not because they had a tough loss last week. The Raiders do exactly nothing well and should not be favored by this much over a decent college team. Oakland is a negative net YPP team and are ranked in the bottom 10 in 3rd down % and red zone % on BOTH offense and defense. This Oakland franchise is 9-25 ATS since the last time they had a winning season.
This is a relatively good spot for Jacksonville. They get a bad team off a good game in an unfamiliar role. They also come off the bye themselves catching probably an inflated number after being drubbed at home their last two games. If they are ever going to put together a good game this is as good of a spot as any.
New England -10 -115
I rarely if ever lay double digits in the NFL but this is a situation where I feel it is warranted. The Jets are not a 3-3 football team. Offensively they are anemic and defensively they are down more than just a couple of notches. They are able to compete with the Colts and Bills of the world in games where they can run the ball and play from ahead. Their offense simply does not have the tools to play catch up and they will need to in this game. The Patriots have legitimate concerns in the secondary again but the front 7 is stout and they should bottle up the Jets run game from the start. The Steelers, 49ers, and Texans are playoff type teams that the Jets have played this season and possess similar front 7's as the Pats where they can stop the Jets run game forcing them to throw. In those three games the Jets have trailed for 127 minutes and have scored ONE offensive TD. Think about that. One offensive TD in over 8 quarters of playing from behind. It's staggering when you think about and speaks to just how bad the Jets are when they are forced to play catch up.
A danger with favs this big is that they sometimes overlook their opponents. I do not see that scenario at all here. First of all these teams are rivals and always get up to play each other. Secondly the Pats run scores up often especially if they get the chance against the Jets. Finally the Pats are off a loss. Their record off a loss speaks for itself but last week was a truly frustrating loss. Most people think the secondary lost the game late giving up some big passes but if you take a closer look it was the offense that played badly. They made a plethora of uncharacteristic mistakes for them including penalties, intentional grounding costing them points, and horrendous play in the redzone. New England was only 1 of 6 in the redzone in Seattle. I expect this offense to be markedly sharper this week and if they get up on the Jets it will be a Sanchez turnover and sackfest. This game just looks like a 38-10 smacking.
St. Louis +5
Last week was a great spot for the Packers to make a statement and prove the doubters wrong and they did just that. The thing is those doubters existed for a reason and that reason is because Green Bay isn't an elite team this year. In fact you could argue they are just barely above average. Going into last week this team was especially fired up and had the spotlight to prove everyone wrong. Now that the bandwagon has filled up again and everyone who has seen their schedule has them penciled in for 3 more easy wins before their bye week could it not be argued that this Packer team may come in a little complacent? Remember before last week this Packer team had not looked impressive and had covered 1 of 5 games.
I said way back earlier in the year I may auto play the Rams as home dogs all season. So far they are perfect in that role and are an overlooked 5-1 ATS. This team plays hard every week, that much has been established from Week 1. However, the bonus is they are also very young and have a new coaching staff. That is a plus because when a young team consistently plays hard over time they gain experience and become familiar with their new systems which in turn makes them better. This team seems to get better every week. This is also a good matchup for the Rams. They can run the ball and slow the game down against a Packers defense that is playing without 4 starters. In addition to defensive depth being a concern, one good game and people forget the Packers offensive line reeks. They cannot run the ball a lick and they sit 31st in the NFL in sack percentage allowed only ahead of the Cardinals woeful offensive line. In a dome and on the road against a good defensive line that is Top 10 in sacks and sack % is not a place for a bad offensive line to play well. I expect this game to be close throughout.
Looking at one more, hopefully the line moves a little. We'll see. GL this week gents.
0
Hot Forum Topics
