Posted:
#1
YTD: 18-12 ATS
Been busy this week. Here is what I have:
Green Bay +3.5
I feel this is a situation where you can buy the Packers on the down low. You have to go back 2 full seasons until you would find the Packers as a dog this big with Rodgers starting. In fact only twice since the end of 2008 have the Packers been a dog this big with Rodgers at the helm. The 2-3 record, no run game, injuries, all that crap has clearly be incorporated into this line.
As far as the game goes what we have here is a veteran team on the road with their backs against the wall. This is where we find out what teams are made of. I trust the Packers in this spot. To me it is worth a bet to find out whether or not they really are crap. Veteran, experienced teams rise to the occasion in spots like this and relish the spotlight. And with Benson gone maybe the Packers will stop wasting 15 plays a game on a player who does not have NFL talent. I like this Alex Green kid at RB. If Green Bay had played Houston's cupcake schedule they would be at least 4-1. I'm not really playing against the Texans here although they are now probably a little overvalued. This bet is mostly a play ON the Packers.
Buffalo +4
A good rule of thumb is to rarely if ever lay points with a bad team. I don't care how good Arizona's defense is, their offense is the worst in the league and they shouldn't be favored over anyone. They have no offensive line, no run game, and Kevin Kolb. It can't get much worse than that. This is just what the doctor ordered for the Bills' much maligned defense.
I like the fact the Bills spent the week on the road. It gives them time to come together as a group to try to right the ship and also gives them time away from what would have been a toxic environment at home this week. Yeah they got pasted by SF and NE but those are two Super Bowl caliber teams. The Cardinals on the other hand most certainly are not.
Teaser: Seattle +10.5/Dallas +10.5
I think the teaser is the better play here because while I like both teams on the straight number there is always the lingering concern the Patriots find a way to win late as they do often and the Cowboys find a way to lose late as they do often and at 3.5 there is not really any room for error.
Seattle has a big edge in special teams and defense. Those types of teams rarely get blown out at home. New England's offense has operated at such a surgical rate the last two weeks that sooner or later they will get caught just a touch out of sync. This could be that spot way across the country against a tough defense in a non-conference game. It is also expected to rain the whole game with gusty winds which could also throw the Pats out of sync. Type of game the Seahawks hang around.
The Cowboys always seem to play up or down to their competition. I think they play well this week against a really good team and fresh off the bye. Dallas has gotten healthy in the trenches over the bye week and should be ready to go. These teams have equal talent but I believe Dallas will be much more motivated as this game means a lot to them, soft of a statement game that they aren't the same embarrassment of a group that walked off the field on MNF two weeks ago. The Ravens are just going through the motions right now. I don't see a strong enough of a reason for them to turn the jets on full blast. They might not be better than Dallas even if they do.
GL this week gents.
Been busy this week. Here is what I have:
Green Bay +3.5
I feel this is a situation where you can buy the Packers on the down low. You have to go back 2 full seasons until you would find the Packers as a dog this big with Rodgers starting. In fact only twice since the end of 2008 have the Packers been a dog this big with Rodgers at the helm. The 2-3 record, no run game, injuries, all that crap has clearly be incorporated into this line.
As far as the game goes what we have here is a veteran team on the road with their backs against the wall. This is where we find out what teams are made of. I trust the Packers in this spot. To me it is worth a bet to find out whether or not they really are crap. Veteran, experienced teams rise to the occasion in spots like this and relish the spotlight. And with Benson gone maybe the Packers will stop wasting 15 plays a game on a player who does not have NFL talent. I like this Alex Green kid at RB. If Green Bay had played Houston's cupcake schedule they would be at least 4-1. I'm not really playing against the Texans here although they are now probably a little overvalued. This bet is mostly a play ON the Packers.
Buffalo +4
A good rule of thumb is to rarely if ever lay points with a bad team. I don't care how good Arizona's defense is, their offense is the worst in the league and they shouldn't be favored over anyone. They have no offensive line, no run game, and Kevin Kolb. It can't get much worse than that. This is just what the doctor ordered for the Bills' much maligned defense.
I like the fact the Bills spent the week on the road. It gives them time to come together as a group to try to right the ship and also gives them time away from what would have been a toxic environment at home this week. Yeah they got pasted by SF and NE but those are two Super Bowl caliber teams. The Cardinals on the other hand most certainly are not.
Teaser: Seattle +10.5/Dallas +10.5
I think the teaser is the better play here because while I like both teams on the straight number there is always the lingering concern the Patriots find a way to win late as they do often and the Cowboys find a way to lose late as they do often and at 3.5 there is not really any room for error.
Seattle has a big edge in special teams and defense. Those types of teams rarely get blown out at home. New England's offense has operated at such a surgical rate the last two weeks that sooner or later they will get caught just a touch out of sync. This could be that spot way across the country against a tough defense in a non-conference game. It is also expected to rain the whole game with gusty winds which could also throw the Pats out of sync. Type of game the Seahawks hang around.
The Cowboys always seem to play up or down to their competition. I think they play well this week against a really good team and fresh off the bye. Dallas has gotten healthy in the trenches over the bye week and should be ready to go. These teams have equal talent but I believe Dallas will be much more motivated as this game means a lot to them, soft of a statement game that they aren't the same embarrassment of a group that walked off the field on MNF two weeks ago. The Ravens are just going through the motions right now. I don't see a strong enough of a reason for them to turn the jets on full blast. They might not be better than Dallas even if they do.
GL this week gents.
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