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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: This is what I learned
CAP-IT send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#1
Posted: 10/11/2012 11:51:23 PM

Call me a loser or whatever but never ever bet a primt time game on the fav.  Always take the dog and the points... This is pure BS... Vegas is killing us with these fixed primetime games unfawking real...  To make things worst Pits lose straight up really??? Big ben why not go closer for more yards or even punt it or what not???

Dogs are the way to go... fawk...

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#2
Posted: 10/11/2012 11:53:19 PM
Listen Pitt had 4 players injured and taken off and also copped a blocked punt (worth 7 points alone) take this away and pitt and under covers its was all the difference
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#3
Posted: 10/11/2012 11:56:13 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bet_The_House:

Listen Pitt had 4 players injured and taken off and also copped a blocked punt (worth 7 points alone) take this away and pitt and under covers its was all the difference

Dont matter what happens in the game. its the outcomes that matter.  Check out all Sunday, Thursday and Monday night games and you tell me if the favs covered?  Dogs won at a high rate... over 70% cover

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#4
Posted: 10/11/2012 11:56:17 PM
Very true. I was leaning Pitt this whole week but at the last second changed by bet to Tenny plus the points. Had to fade myself. Wanted to pound the Pitt ML iniially but once I saw the public was all over Pitt I was like darn that. Honestly Ihate betting underdogs but they seem like they cash more than favs do especially in primetime games youll get em back
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#5
Posted: 10/11/2012 11:57:21 PM
Cap -it: You are exactly right, but the worse part about it is that most bettors will not listen to what you are saying. This garbage is def manipulated bruh. It is just AMAZING how things seem to fall in place for the public to lose, more times than not. I paid attention to this early on. 
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#6
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:01:09 AM
Mind you, according to vegasinsider, 81% of the public was on Pitt ML......@ -255, and 64% on the spread. 
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#7
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:01:22 AM
Honestly, Its the last 3 primetime games. NO,JETS and now TEN. All of them home dogs. ALL of them needed to come out strong due to their struggles.
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#8
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:02:08 AM
"Fixed" prim time game? You aren't being serious are you?

Pittsburgh was off huge intra-state rivalry game (win) against the Eagles. The Titans needed a breakout game to try to salvage something. I don't get how people continue to lay large points on the road. Yes, Pitt lost SU. They had the chance to win it but were a yard short on the FG try. Was that fixed too?

Before tonight, Road Favorites were 11-18 ATS making the home dogs 18-11 ATS or 65%!! . Home Dogs are even 16-14 SU counting this game.

Overall, dogs in general this season are 45-30 or hitting at a 60% clip. This game wasn't fixed my friend.
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#9
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:03:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cremona:

Honestly, Its the last 3 primetime games. NO,JETS and now TEN. All of them home dogs. ALL of them needed to come out strong due to their struggles.


no was not a dog -3.5 at home after 0-4 start
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#10
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:04:12 AM
I agree with everything you said except it being "fixed".  Everyone that took PIT did so by handicapping "Titans are bad".  The end.  Nobody was looking at how good, or bad, the Steelers are.
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#11
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:04:16 AM
And another thing .... Things aren't set up for the public to lose..... Understand that Pittsburgh is a public darling and you are always goint to pay a premium to back them, especially against a team with a poor defence like the Titans. The public only bets what they see the week before and never considers the entire picture.
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#12
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:04:28 AM
All the best cappers pay attention to line movement and public betting trends. This is done for a reason my friend 
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#13
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:08:51 AM
Regardless fixed or not the right side is to take the dog on primetime plus the points. The outcome and percentage of winning will be higher then taking the fav on the spread is what I am trying to say.  Titans had no business winning this game at all but they did.  That is why I considered it fixed.  Some people hate the word fixed but hey every sport there are people that change the outcome of games. Tennis, Soccer, Basketball and so on.
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#14
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:11:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Bet_The_House:

Listen Pitt had 4 players injured and taken off and also copped a blocked punt (worth 7 points alone) take this away and pitt and under covers its was all the difference

hahahahaahha, you've obviously never watched "pro" wrestling!

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#15
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:18:31 AM
I like all the points fever has made in this thread and I agree with all his points.
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#16
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:27:12 AM
primetime home dogs
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#17
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:35:25 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by CAP-IT:

Regardless fixed or not the right side is to take the dog on primetime plus the points. The outcome and percentage of winning will be higher then taking the fav on the spread is what I am trying to say.  Titans had no business winning this game at all but they did.  That is why I considered it fixed.  Some people hate the word fixed but hey every sport there are people that change the outcome of games. Tennis, Soccer, Basketball and so on.

I don't want to be a ball buster but read the points I made above. I bolded your statement above on purpose.  Do you understand what you are saying?  With all due respect, Do you mean to tell me that Shaun Suisham purposely missed that 54 yard field goal attempt that would have put the Steelers up by 3 late?  Or, according to the inference made in your statement, did the NFL in collusion with the boys in Vegas suddenly turn on super powered fans to be in the face of Suisham to ensure that his kick fell short?

I don't mean to insult you ... don't take this the wrong way but do you realize how silly your statement is?

Like I said, the Steelers are a public darling and to back them you have to pay a premium. 

Pittsburgh was 2-2 going into this game. Not world beaters by a long shot.  They came off a huge win against the Eagles, had a short week and failed to cover as 4 point favorites in last year's meeting at home against the Titans. Remember they let leads slip away to lose in both their games, first against Denver and then against the Raiders who themselves aren't the cream of the NFL.

The Titans lone win was against the Lions. not a horrible team to say the least.

Also, did bettors forget that the Steelers are horrible road chalk? They were 10-17-1 ATS as road favorites under Tomlin.

This game wasn't rigged. It was an over inflated line that got bet-down to 5.5 in some shops before game time.

No fix, just public perception biting the public in the behind once again.

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#18
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:37:34 AM
You people are pathetic.  Its public perception 101.  You friggin tards think Pitt is good based on name alone and think Tenn is just gonna blow every game.  Its the NFL.  My goodness its so sad..
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#19
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:42:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CAP-IT:

Regardless fixed or not the right side is to take the dog on primetime plus the points. The outcome and percentage of winning will be higher then taking the fav on the spread is what I am trying to say.  Titans had no business winning this game at all but they did.  That is why I considered it fixed.  Some people hate the word fixed but hey every sport there are people that change the outcome of games. Tennis, Soccer, Basketball and so on.

According to that statement that means every favorite should win correct? Thats a terrible angle to cap games with. 

You need to really look into the details when capping a game. Such as Pittsburgh is not good team on the road. They also don't have one of their key players polomalu, 27-9 with him 8-9 without him or something like that. They also just came off a win vs philly (who has a struggling o line) at home in which they couldn't even cover the spread AFTER a bye week. And you're gonna take them minus points on the road? 

And you aren't giving enough credit to the titans cause of their bad start. Did you forget CJ is a premier back? 

The injuries to the Pittsburgh O-line helped titans win but they would have won by a lot more points if it weren't for the dropped passes from the receivers.
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#20
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:42:29 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by mrquija27:

You people are pathetic.  Its public perception 101.  You friggin tards think Pitt is good based on name alone and think Tenn is just gonna blow every game.  Its the NFL.  My goodness its so sad..

....  .. someone that gets it!!

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#21
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:43:37 AM
Damn you fever for beating me to the write-up. 
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#22
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:47:10 AM
If you truly feel that way and no one can dissuade you -- even an experienced capper like "fever" who made excellent points -- then it is best that you just layoff sports betting. 
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#23
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:53:50 AM
No team is ever as bad as you believe, and no team is ever as good as they seemed the week before.  Nobody pointed out one single statistical reason, matchup or element to this game as to why the steelers won other than "Titans suck, defense sucks, CJ2k sucks.  Rapelessburger is awesome, Steelers D is awesome, steelers rule."  Why? becuase they won a SB a couple years ago?  B/c they made the playoffs last year? Where they lost in the opening game to friggin Teblow.  People do this every week.  Brady rules, lets back brady.  Peyton in primetime, guaranteed winner.  Browns suck, ravens are gonna mash them.  Jets got beat by 40 last week, and the Texans are sick, 9 points ain't garbage.  And you repeatedly tear up your tickets.  Its just brutal.  Its the friggin NFL man, this isn't a Saturday afternoon with 19-22 year olds, where the moment gets too big.  These dudes are professionals, all of them, even the browns and dolphins and jags etc (well maybe not the jags).  But until you figure out they're all pretty damn good and start using the public misperception for you instead of against you, you're gonna keep losing.  And anyone who talks fixes in games like this is just a lifetime loser.  There would have had to been 2 dozen people firmly in someone's pocket for tonight to have been 'fixed'.  garbage happens.  I took Tenny and I wouldn't even say I was on the right side.
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#24
Posted: 10/12/2012 12:56:27 AM
CAP-IT: Just keep paying attention. Everyone is gonna have an opinion and it takes for some people to get hit with a brick before they will even think about opening their eyes. You just keep paying attention to what's happening, and then call it what you want but bet with that wisdom. 
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#25
Posted: 10/12/2012 1:01:57 AM
This game was not fixed. Any experienced gambler would've known Over was the play. This Pittsburgh defense is not of old. And the refs did a descent job.
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