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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** Best Play of the Month *** It's Hammer Time!
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:03:07 PM
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens

If anyone has been following, I am 3-0 fading the Ravens the past three weeks and 1-0 fading the cowboys in the same timespan so it's safe to say I know these two teams pretty well. Not only are the Cowboys off a blowout loss, but they are coming out of a bye week as well so they have had plenty of time to gameplan for the Ravens. The Cowboys have been historically bad as a favorite the past few years (4-17 ATS) as you can tell with how they played against the Bears last but they play exceptionally well as an underdog. When the Oline for the Cowboys is doing their job and preventing Romo from throwing INT's and costly turnovers, they are one of the best teams in the NFL, hands down. This game means so much more to the cowboys who are only 2-2 and a game back in their division. Ravens are #1 in their division, off three straight wins, and won't care as much to face a non-conference opponent. Especially since they have the undefeated Texans next week. Everyone knows how I feel about the Ravens defense and lack of pass rush this year with T. Suggs being out. This is the cowboys statement game. When's the last time someone went into Baltimore and came out with a win? Cowboys will show everyone they are legit contenders after this sunday.

Ravens sacked Brandon Weeden 1 time in 53 pass attempts 2 weeks ago.
Ravens sacked Cassell/Quinn 0 times in 18 pass attempts last week.


Joe Flacco has been sacked 4 times by the Browns two weeks ago.
Joe Flacco has been sacked 4 times by the Chiefs last week.

I've always said line movement or late line movement is pointless to watch as it could go either way and doesn't indicate anything. But the one thing that does matter and that I do pay attention to is early line movement. And by early, I mean within hours of the line being posted. Immediately after this line opened at -4/-4.5, it was bet down to -3.5 despite 83% of bets being on the Ravens up to today. Early line movement like this indicates some high rollers who were waiting for this line to come out and pounced on it immediately.

The Cowboys are 16-7 SU and 16-7 ATS off their bye week. The Cowboys are 10-4 ATS on the road, following their bye week including 1-0 ATS last year.

The Ravens longest active streak in the NFL of 13 consecutive wins at home comes to an end this Sunday.

I'm all over the Cowboys this week. Bring it home Romo!

139543638-110/9/12 5:52pm$234.00$200.00Pending10/14/12 1:00pm  NFL Football  217 Dallas Cowboys +4 -117* vs Baltimore Ravens 

139543627-110/9/12 5:51pm$220.00$200.00Pending10/14/12 1:00pm  NFL Football  218 Baltimore Ravens Under 24 -110* vs Dallas Cowboys 

139543604-110/9/12 5:51pm$351.00$300.00Pending10/14/12 1:00pm  NFL Football  217 Dallas Cowboys +4 -117* vs Baltimore Ravens 
139616610-110/10/12 4:02pm$236.00$200.00Pending10/14/12 1:00pm  NFL Football  217 Dallas Cowboys +4 -118* vs Baltimore Ravens 
139616610-210/10/12 4:02pm$100.00$165.00Pending10/14/12 1:00pm  NFL Football  217 Dallas Cowboys +165* vs Baltimore Ravens 
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#2
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:07:06 PM
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jbkizzle
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#3
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:08:04 PM

Ravens win straight-up. You might be right on the spread though.

 

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#4
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:23:59 PM
GL bud ....
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#5
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:25:00 PM
I TOTALLY AGREE.....Cowboys needing it more, plus Ravens have a big game ahead.....Plus this is out of Division....Cowboys "always" a better than average bet as a dog....Thanks for good ATS info!....Every little bit helps......I WILL "NEVER" BET THE POKES AS A FAV.....POOR TRACK RECORD.....This is a team along with the Steelers that when you expect them to win and cover, they give you a good shot up the butt!.....Been burned too many times by both teams as favs......BUT AS DOGS, MUCH, MUCH BETTER....THANKS AND GOOD LUCK!
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#6
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:25:32 PM
Agree the Boys play better as dogs. Ravens a lil overrated IMO. Boys plus the points is a solid play here BOL
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#7
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:57:51 PM
When I saw the opening lines, it seemed kind of strange to me that Baltimore was such a small favorite.   I agree 100% with the Cowboys here.
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#8
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:04:24 PM
two plays of the month? you had STL last week as POM.
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#9
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:06:05 PM

Good Luck LC..!

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#10
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:08:09 PM
OH no I am on the Raves for 2 units one of my bigger plays of the year.  This makes  me nervous 
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#11
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:19:08 PM
I wholeheartedly agree with this. I think the line is way too small, especially with the Ravens hosting this game at home...I think the line should be near 6-7 points. The Ravens have a 4-1 record, including a 3-0 record at home, while the Cowboys are 1-1 at away games and 2-2 overall.

Tony Romo coming off that disastrous game with 5 INTS, I expect the Cowboys to rebound from that loss and Romo having a big game - big enough to win this game SU. I will take the points and have a play on the ML as well.


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#12
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:19:54 PM
The Ravens never show up to play teams with records below .500, Thats been proven over and over.  The Cowgirls don't fall into that category being at .500.  After 2 no-shows in a row I got a feeling the Ravens lay out an behind whipping but who knows
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#13
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:21:02 PM
Agreed. Cowboys win outright here.
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#14
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:31:02 PM
One of the BEST cappers on this site. Keep it up LeagueCapper!!!!

BIG bounceback game for Dallas here.

BOL to us!
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#15
Posted: 10/10/2012 8:01:01 PM

Buffalo +5?  Bills staying on the West Coast....need a win badly, AZ should get the Bills best effort in this one.
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#16
Posted: 10/10/2012 8:04:40 PM
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#17
Posted: 10/10/2012 8:17:56 PM
GL man I'll be hittin this!
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#18
Posted: 10/10/2012 9:46:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Stevedore:


Buffalo +5?  Bills staying on the West Coast....need a win badly, AZ should get the Bills best effort in this one.


I'm always down to make a bet on a team that has just been blown out twice in a row. Buffalo should cover here. I'm not going to bet it though because i'm only making two plays this Sunday as I'm trying to be very selective with the plays I make to ensure more wins.

As for my 2nd play, interested to hear your thoughts on your Packers against the Texans for SNF ? Already got my bet in but curious to see what you think
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#19
Posted: 10/10/2012 9:46:49 PM


I was hoping this was your big play. Great minds think alike.


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#20
Posted: 10/10/2012 9:47:50 PM
GL but seems like you are a Dallas Cowboys fan and in love with Tony Romo
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#21
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:00:17 PM
nepatriots_12

Navi - Actually i'm not. Patriots fan here who doesn't care for the cowboys
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#22
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:16:02 PM
gl... I like GB +4... hopefully we think alike
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#23
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:23:48 PM
Yes! I love this play myself.
GL
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#24
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:36:25 PM
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#25
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:57:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



I'm always down to make a bet on a team that has just been blown out twice in a row. Buffalo should cover here. I'm not going to bet it though because i'm only making two plays this Sunday as I'm trying to be very selective with the plays I make to ensure more wins.

As for my 2nd play, interested to hear your thoughts on your Packers against the Texans for SNF ? Already got my bet in but curious to see what you think

Just curious, but don't you already have two bets with the Thursday night over and the Cowboys?  I only ask because I was curious if you decided against the Thursday nighter.

Anyways, as for the Texans game, I really like my boys to cover in this one.  With Cushing out, it seems like a perfect time to think the Texans will finally lose one, but I suspect the team to be focused to compensate for that loss.
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