Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tenneesee Titans ***
yamda send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
yamda
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 910
Location: Pennsylvania
#26
Posted: 10/11/2012 7:36:03 AM
Bought it down to 42...line movement today is a good sign I guess LOL. My book had it at 44. Also liking the Titans tonight . Always enjoy your posts and analysis League!
Thanks for all your insight! 
quote
bobafett send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
bobafett
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 2655
Location: United States
#27
Posted: 10/11/2012 8:52:27 AM
u take into consideration the fact neither team has many "explosive" (20 yards +) plays both teams have?..not many
quote
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LeagueCapper
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6115
Location: California
#28
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:03:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett:

u take into consideration the fact neither team has many "explosive" (20 yards +) plays both teams have?..not many


Yup but neither team is going to win this game with their defense. PITT needs this win, but they have turned into an offensive team over a defensive team this year. They are 26th in defensive efficiency so far, not to mention giving up a total of 65 points on the road in 2 games already. TENN has an even worse defense, I still see them putting up 20-25 easily though.

Passing on the side and sticking with the over.
quote
idle_havoc
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
idle_havoc
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 2785
Location: Netherlands
              Antilles
#29
Posted: 10/11/2012 12:33:16 PM
respect your write ups, always informative
but I'm taking the under on this one
I just don't either team putting up many pts. in this game, Pitt. cuz they are on road and Tenn cuz they're Tenn
BOL regardless 
quote
WAIWAI send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
WAIWAI
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 390
Location: Minnesota
#30
Posted: 10/11/2012 1:49:27 PM
bol
quote
Jondlx99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Jondlx99
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 222
Location: Massachusetts
#31
Posted: 10/11/2012 2:09:09 PM
the underdog and the under. its thursday night!
quote
Fazool
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Fazool
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 268
Location: New Jersey
#32
Posted: 10/11/2012 2:20:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jondlx99:

the underdog and the under. its thursday night!

quote
bobafett send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
bobafett
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 2655
Location: United States
#33
Posted: 10/11/2012 2:46:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Yup but neither team is going to win this game with their defense. PITT needs this win, but they have turned into an offensive team over a defensive team this year. They are 26th in defensive efficiency so far, not to mention giving up a total of 65 points on the road in 2 games already. TENN has an even worse defense, I still see them putting up 20-25 easily though.
League...you dont see them both as teams who will no doubt have to RUN the ball eatin seconds off tghe clock
Passing on the side and sticking with the over.
quote
bobafett send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
bobafett
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 2655
Location: United States
#34
Posted: 10/11/2012 2:47:11 PM

i messed up...u know what im askin rite....?

quote
fras
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetUS.com |
fras
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 145
Location: California
#35
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:06:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kn0wn:


I got Steelers 27-17 

but like your thinking primetime

  That is what I predicted it to be, around, minimum score, although it could be more, given that Titans defense is banged up from previous weeks giving up 35 points minimum ,
quote
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LeagueCapper
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6115
Location: California
#36
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:11:54 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bobafett:

i messed up...u know what im askin rite....?



This is how I see it. The first thing I looked at is previous games. Teams very rarely, and I mean very rarely get blown out 3 games in a row. TENN off 2 embarrassing losses and now playing at home vs a top caliber team. There gonna bring it. I doubt they are gonna run the ball and slow the game down. There was already talk about the offensive coordinator being on the hot seat if the Titans go to 1-5. I expect some trickery plays like we saw against the Lions a few weeks ago. That being said, PITT should also be able to get theirs pretty easily as well. Titans are 29th in pass defense, Rothlisberger should be able to pass all over them.

Don't let me influence you to changing your side as I'd feel terrible if the under cashed and you switched but just sharing my views
quote
fras
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BetUS.com |
fras
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 145
Location: California
#37
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:12:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Yup but neither team is going to win this game with their defense. PITT needs this win, but they have turned into an offensive team over a defensive team this year. They are 26th in defensive efficiency so far, not to mention giving up a total of 65 points on the road in 2 games already. TENN has an even worse defense, I still see them putting up 20-25 easily though.

Passing on the side and sticking with the over.

 
Over it is  80 units for me, and Steelers money line 150 units,   50 units as parlay  Steelers  money line win over,
Those are my plays for today.

  
quote
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LeagueCapper
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6115
Location: California
#38
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:25:49 PM
Official Play:

Tennessee Titans +7 (-130)

Tried all day to just stick with the over, but can;t avoid this play. Too many intangibles going the Titans way today. TENN off two blowout losses, Pitt off a physical defensive game against PHI and traveling on a short week, Titans offensive coordinator on the hotseat. 7 points is way too much for a PITT team who is 0-2 on the road so far this year and missing two key defensive players.

139710950-110/11/12 3:22pm$195.00$150.00Pending10/11/12 8:25pm  NFL Football  102 Tennessee Titans +7 -130* vs Pittsburgh Steelers 

quote
sabermaths send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
sabermaths
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 2634
Location: United States
#39
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:45:47 PM
so we taking the over and tenn?
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LeagueCapper
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6115
Location: California
#40
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:51:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sabermaths:

so we taking the over and tenn?


Yes sir
quote
sabermaths send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: WilliamHill.com |
sabermaths
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 2634
Location: United States
#41
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:55:00 PM
imma ar this too then. lol

lets get thisssss
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
cheetahking send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
cheetahking
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 141
Location: Hawaii
#42
Posted: 10/11/2012 4:55:54 PM
nice write up L.C. may have to tail you if i don't pull the trigger with the titans...bol tonite!  
quote
StoneColdNinja
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
StoneColdNinja
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 2858
Location:
#43
Posted: 10/11/2012 5:01:58 PM
Tenn 
quote
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LeagueCapper
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6115
Location: California
#44
Posted: 10/11/2012 5:21:57 PM
Interesting note about week 6 in the NFL.

Three teams will be playing that have either been blown out the past 2 weeks, or blew out teams the past 2 weeks.

TENN
BUFF
SF

I said it before but i'll say it again, it is very difficult for a team to be blown out 3 weeks in a row and vice versa, for a team to blow out teams 3 weeks in a row.

My guess is that if you play on TENN, BUFF, and fade SF, that you go 2-1 at the least.

Let's see what happens.


quote
Sidekickz24
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Caesars Palace |
Sidekickz24
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 1100
Location: California
#45
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:13:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tenneessee Titans

People don't realize it yet but PITT is a really old team and have lost most of their swagger. They have already given up 31 and 34 points on the road this year to the Broncos and the Raiders. The last thing they need is to play another road game on a short week. I know unders on thursday are on a 14-2 streak but I see it ending here. TENN should be able to put up 25 pretty easily as PITT just isn't the same team defensively as it once was - not to mention they are once again not healthy.


Home Dogs coming off a 21+ Point Road Loss are 16-6 ATS the past few years. Last season it was 9-4 ATS and the last time it happened this year was when the Raiders beat the Steelers SU after losing on the road by 22 to the dolphins the week prior. The Titans were also in a similar spot beating the Lions SU after losing to the Chargers by 28 the week prior.

Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS the last 5 games on the road. (talk about age)
Tenneessee is 20-8 ATS after failing to score more than 15 points.

All this would make it seem like I'm making a play on the Titans but I'm not. I feel like the over is a much better play here. As shown above, I think TEN comes to play against an aging beat up Steelers squad that isn't as good defensively on the road. That won't change the fact that PIT's offensive line has been blocking superbly since week 2 so I still feel that the Steelers will get there points just as easy.

This will be my first total play of the year and i'm sure it won't be a popular one.

Over 42.5

LC You think there is a reason 9 of the 16 you mentioned ats wins came in one year? Like changes in the rules or something.
quote
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LeagueCapper
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6115
Location: California
#46
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:24:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sidekickz24:


LC You think there is a reason 9 of the 16 you mentioned ats wins came in one year? Like changes in the rules or something.


I think you misread it. It is 16-6 ATS past two years including 9-4 ATS last year. Meaning it was 7-2 ATS the year prior.


Titans +7 (-130)
Over 42.5

Enjoy the game everyone, see you after!



quote
kevmode
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
kevmode
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 3868
Location:
#47
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:43:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



I think you misread it. It is 16-6 ATS past two years including 9-4 ATS last year. Meaning it was 7-2 ATS the year prior.


Titans +7 (-130)
Over 42.5

Enjoy the game everyone, see you after!




How did you get +7 did you buy a point?  I am seeing it at +6 now everywhere.
quote
raychard send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
raychard
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 1658
Location: Ontario
#48
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:48:58 PM
quote
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
LeagueCapper
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 6115
Location: California
#49
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:56:00 PM
Kevmode - +7 at 5dimes
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
kevmode
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
kevmode
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 3868
Location:
#50
Posted: 10/11/2012 6:58:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Kevmode - +7 at 5dimes

K thanks gl tonight 
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.