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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: *** Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tenneesee Titans ***
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:55:48 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tenneessee Titans

People don't realize it yet but PITT is a really old team and have lost most of their swagger. They have already given up 31 and 34 points on the road this year to the Broncos and the Raiders. The last thing they need is to play another road game on a short week. I know unders on thursday are on a 14-2 streak but I see it ending here. TENN should be able to put up 25 pretty easily as PITT just isn't the same team defensively as it once was - not to mention they are once again not healthy.


Home Dogs coming off a 21+ Point Road Loss are 16-6 ATS the past few years. Last season it was 9-4 ATS and the last time it happened this year was when the Raiders beat the Steelers SU after losing on the road by 22 to the dolphins the week prior. The Titans were also in a similar spot beating the Lions SU after losing to the Chargers by 28 the week prior.

Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS the last 5 games on the road. (talk about age)
Tenneessee is 20-8 ATS after failing to score more than 15 points.

All this would make it seem like I'm making a play on the Titans but I'm not. I feel like the over is a much better play here. As shown above, I think TEN comes to play against an aging beat up Steelers squad that isn't as good defensively on the road. That won't change the fact that PIT's offensive line has been blocking superbly since week 2 so I still feel that the Steelers will get there points just as easy.

This will be my first total play of the year and i'm sure it won't be a popular one.

Over 42.5
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#2
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:01:40 PM
I love the play.  Big Ben should have no problem moving the ball against the Titans and I agree with you that this Steeler defense is just not what they used to be.  Most often the short week favors the defense, but here it should favor the offenses.

When are you posting your Raven-Cowboy play?
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#3
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:04:06 PM
I'm also feeling this is the strongest angle in this game and am getting set to make the same play. Goodluck this weekend
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#4
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:06:33 PM
im on stelers but love the over here I agree with you just think Pitt wins this game by 10.  Not sure if Im gonna play a total yet but if I do play it I will be playing the over
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#5
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:06:42 PM
It seemed pretty popular when you asked in your other thread.  I thought it was a little obvious.  But the 0-5 over/under alone will have people betting the under.  Like the play.
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#6
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:08:22 PM
Oh yeah, that was balty and cowgirls.  Oops either way like the over in both.
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#7
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:19:03 PM
Steelers 31-13 final.................
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#8
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:20:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Steelers 31-13 final.................

I got Steelers 27-17 

but like your thinking primetime
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#9
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:21:10 PM
I like your thinking. GL
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#10
Posted: 10/10/2012 4:29:05 PM
"Totally agree here too.....Big Ben will get his points, that's a given.....I'm from the Steeler nation here, and trust me, things just aren't what they used to be , esp. the aging defense....OVER IS A GOOD CALL!!!!...Again, my best!
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#11
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:05:20 PM
Steelers only covered two road games last year.  That makes them 2-11 ATS their last 13.  Pbg has had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year, Ten. has had the toughest.  Not sure this game warrants a play, though.
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#12
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:16:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kn0wn:

im on stelers but love the over here I agree with you just think Pitt wins this game by 10.  Not sure if Im gonna play a total yet but if I do play it I will be playing the over


What has the Steelers done this year (especially on the road) for you to lay near a touchdown on them on the road? The Titans are bad, but Steelers aren't much better. Titans have faced the hardest schedule thus far in the league. I like the Titans here and still might add a play on them before gametime.
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#13
Posted: 10/10/2012 6:40:36 PM
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#14
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:14:05 PM
clovercloverclover
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#15
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:23:33 PM
i love it 
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#16
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:36:01 PM
Good luck buddy
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#17
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:42:37 PM
I agree. Both these teams having problems defensively especially Ten. I think Big Ben has a big game.
GL
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#18
Posted: 10/10/2012 11:49:16 PM
gl 
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#19
Posted: 10/10/2012 11:59:19 PM

Fully agree that this is a GREAT value over and nothing like many past games between these two would play out.

 

I see 44 pts. on lowest downside and prolly as high as 55/56.

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#20
Posted: 10/11/2012 1:33:24 AM

BOL Bud always enjoy what you have to say in your write ups and will more than likely be making the same play as you just looking over the MLB still.

BOL on the Week as well

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#21
Posted: 10/11/2012 1:47:25 AM
tenn +6.5 by tonite maybe 7      &  over
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#22
Posted: 10/11/2012 2:44:33 AM

I like your analysis of the game , however

"People don't realize it yet but PITT is a really old team and have lost most of their swagger"

Pit may have lost some swagger on Defense but the injuries(IMO) is the reason and not their age.  The youngest team in the league is the Rams 25.32 and 26.56 for pit(24th in the league) I don't see a big enough margin here to call them "really" old.  I think the game in Oakland was a complete disaster for Pit and divisional games are always tough...even against oakland.  Denver can put up points against everyone...even if it only in the 4th Q. 

Keep up the good work with your capping and best of luck on the over....i hope it stays under 50 though....

 

cheers,

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#23
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:39:34 AM
Pittsburgh
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 10-2 in Steelers last 12 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games in Week 6.
Under is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 19-7 in Steelers last 26 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 games overall.
Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games in October.
Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 road games.
Over is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Tennessee
Under is 5-1-1 in Titans last 7 home games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Titans last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Titans last 6 games on grass.
Over is 4-1-1 in Titans last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Titans last 5 vs. AFC.
Under is 3-1-1 in Titans last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 11-4 in Titans last 15 games in October.
Under is 10-4-1 in Titans last 15 games overall.
Under is 5-2-1 in Titans last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Head to Head
Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
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#24
Posted: 10/11/2012 3:45:03 AM
any regards to injuries ? heard polomalu was going to be out this one
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#25
Posted: 10/11/2012 5:00:40 AM
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