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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Giants @ 49ers...17-3-2 ATS System in play
MrBator send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:31:35 PM

Correction:

 

If the team off a pair of monster blowout wins scored 40 points or more in at least one of the two big wins, AND allowed no more than 10 points combined, the following week they went 5-4 SU & 0-8-1 ATS.

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#27
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:33:02 PM

This specific situation may need an asterik in the system, with respect to the fact that the Niners are facing the team that prevented them from going to the Super Bowl a year ago. The system is hard to ignore. In fact, you'd be a complete fool to ignore it. But how many times when this scenario has reared it's head has the team been ready for a letdown? All of them, probably.

I won't be betting this game, but my guess is the Niners are somewhat fortunate to be playing the Giants, as opposed to any other team in the NFL at this exact point in their schedule. Their desire for revenge, might just help them remain focused and avoid the result of their predecessors.

Will it? I don't pretend to know, but the reason this system is so successful is that it relies exclusively on the fat, happy, and lazy mindframe. I'm not so sure that will be the Niners mentality this week.

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#28
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:39:00 PM

the reason this system is so successful is that it relies exclusively on the fat, happy, and lazy mindframe.

 

 

 

 

I think it's mostly about a team being physically and mentally tapped-out following back-to-back weeks of total domination on both sides of the football, but you're right in assuming that the Niners won't be one of those teams feeling lazy or satisfied. 

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#29
Posted: 10/9/2012 10:57:24 PM
the 49ers might just be too hyped for this game. 

i remember listening to a phil jackson interview some years ago and he talked about telling his team to control their emotions in the playoffs. if players waste too much energy in the beginning of the game there will be nothing left to finish it off in the 4th.


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#30
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:02:02 PM
SF, SU
NYG, ATS

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#31
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:05:38 PM
Bator will you be playing the Giants?
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#32
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:31:25 PM

Teams scoring more than 30 points and allowing less than ten points in two consecutive games since the year 2000:

ATS 2-10

OU 8-4

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#33
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:34:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Dubfire:

the 49ers might just be too hyped for this game. 

i remember listening to a phil jackson interview some years ago and he talked about telling his team to control their emotions in the playoffs. if players waste too much energy in the beginning of the game there will be nothing left to finish it off in the 4th.




That can happen.

I noticed it in the SB between the Bengals and Niners in the late '80s.     Bengals came out for introductions all hyped up like they were shot out of a cannon.   Niners came out very cool and calm, like execs going into a business meeting.   Bengals seemed to have more energy and intensity at the beginning of the game.

Bengals had a 13-6 lead going into the 4th qtr, but sort of wore down as Niners scored 2 TDs at the end to win the SB 20-16.

Not sure if that'll happen this weekend, though.


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#34
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:46:41 PM
I love this.  MrBator.
Gmen take this game SU  Remember people Gmen love the underdog spotlight.  Niner might pull it throu this year but week 6 would be a big let down which they'll need to build momentum in order to make it throu the playoffs. 
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#35
Posted: 10/10/2012 12:35:38 AM

NYG line went from +7 to +4.5

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#36
Posted: 10/10/2012 12:46:31 AM
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#37
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:12:27 AM
Mr bator, how come u don't post ur picks anymore!?!? I need u right now
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#38
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:12:44 AM

If you take the GMen you're playing with fire if you ask me, Eli Manning got his face planted and planted in the turf that playoff game. He took a beating. I don't think he's looking forward to going through that again.

The Giants IMO got outplayed pretty badly by the Eagles but Vick is a turnover machince and the Eagles can't put teams away in comparison to the Niners.  The Niners are a very very sound team and the spreads still haven't caught up to that yet.

Niners or nothing here, the 5 points is not a lot with this crew, they'll be hungry here.

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#39
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:49:11 AM
Nice Trend , but does it work with this situation where 49ers was knocked out last year , and coming in for a revenge game?
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#40
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:12:37 AM
I like the Niners, the only thing that's scary is that the Giants (Eli) has made plays to bring his team back to win or in position to win all season long.  They are a tough group to put away. 
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#41
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:32:46 AM
Thanks for the insight! ??????
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#42
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:28:11 AM
Still don't get how you can bet on a system play...that's almost saying flipping a coin is the best way to pick games...anyways, gl
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#43
Posted: 10/10/2012 5:57:49 AM
That was a great post! I had this spread a lot higher then -5 thinking more like -10 with the giants having some many injuries but the let down theory does seem like a strong trend I would love the giants getting say seven or more but five seems like a number the niners could handle I will most likely lay off this game and just watch and see if the trend holds
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#44
Posted: 10/10/2012 11:45:45 AM
Those Giants receivers always find a way to get open don't they
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#45
Posted: 10/10/2012 11:52:25 AM
Giants are going to be playing shorthanded again because of Nicks' chronic foot injuries.  Even though they're the champions, the game will be a lot tougher against an elite defense.
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#46
Posted: 10/10/2012 11:53:00 AM
USIKBASTERD - HOW ABOUT A SUPERBOWL QB PARLAY


                   PITTSBURGH - 6.5
                   NEW ENGLAND -3.5
                   NEW YORK GIANTS +4
                   GREEN BAY +3
 and throw Matt Ryan in there ATL -9.5
           LOVING THIS PARLAY - I WAS 16th ATS last Year
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#47
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:52:59 PM
Niners -3 1H might be something to look at here.  Both teams seem to start off the opposite of each other, Niners get off to fast starts (not Vikings game) and Gmen start slow and Eli finishes strong.  
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#48
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:14:38 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by MrBator] If the Niners can overcome this situation and cover the spread this Sunday against the Giants, go ahead and pencil them in for a spot in the Super Bowl. [/Quot
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#49
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:23:18 PM
If Niners win and cover this weekend, next week will be a letdown spot against divisional foe Seattle, then again vs Arizona, then finally against St. Louis.
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#50
Posted: 10/10/2012 3:55:40 PM

you're right in assuming that the Niners won't be one of those teams feeling lazy or satisfied. 


So Bator, are you saying you see the Niners as quality enough to stay away from this trend? Or are you just saying lazy/satisfied aren't the right adjectives?

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