WEEK 6 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 6 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/10/2012 4:52:26 PM
The Titans line has climbed all the way to +6.5 (-105).  I don't see it getting any better than this so I'm going to lock them in right now.  The Steelers have played the third easiest schedule in the NFL while the Titans have played the fifth hardest.  I'm not surprised then that both teams have similar net RPI ranks in my database.  The Titans defense has been torched by some very explosive offensive.  They've also struggled with time of possession and playing from behind with an air attack doesn't help this cause.  Their defense suffered greatly.  Well the Steelers don't exactly have an explosive offense.  In fact, they're still ranked dead last in rushing efficiency and are ranked about #19 in total offense.  The Steelers are also missing a few key defensive players which won't help their #22 ranked defense.  We're catching value on both sides of the ball here.  On the one hand, the public still thinks of the Steelers as a powerhouse defense and a productive offense - when in fact they're a bottom tier defense with a pedestrian offense that is ill-equipped at the front line for the transition into a vertical team.  On the other hand, you have a Titan team that has allowed more points per game than any other team with a struggling high-profile running back and an injured QB that the public has all but given up on.  Certainly, they're not as bad as they look and their record and stats are more a product of their level of competition.  Sure they're ranked near the bottom of my power rankings - but so are the Steelers!  My most conservative model lined the game at Tenn +4.5 and my more aggressive models produced a winning probability closer to 50/50.  After a lackluster week 4, I'll go back to my cash cow this season - the home dog - on Thursday night to start the week.  I don't see any reason to set the Steelers higher than 2.5 point road favorites with their current #25 power ranking.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/10/2012 4:53:10 PM


Locked in:

TNF - Tennessee Titans +6.5 (-105)





mariner24 PM mariner24
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Posted: 10/10/2012 5:05:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:



Locked in:

TNF - Tennessee Titans +6.5 (-105)





  i will follow you to the depths of hell on this pick si1ly
Pasteur PM Pasteur
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Posted: 10/10/2012 5:22:08 PM
Glad to see you on it too.  I'm hoping it will hit 7 but I might want to jump on +6.5 with you.  I also like the over in this game.  BOL
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/10/2012 5:24:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pasteur:

Glad to see you on it too.  I'm hoping it will hit 7 but I might want to jump on +6.5 with you.  I also like the over in this game.  BOL

I had a strong lean to the over as well but I think the Titans side offers gamblers more value.
mariner24 PM mariner24
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Posted: 10/10/2012 5:40:52 PM
advertisments!! ^^^^
MrBiggs PM MrBiggs
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Posted: 10/10/2012 6:37:11 PM
Confident with Titans with the probability of Hasselback playing?  Hard to back that guy.  Even though I say that I am leaning Tenn with you.  Dog in the series have cover 75% and a Thurs night prime time game for Tenn.  should get them the cover.  Steelers aren't the same D they used to be.  If Timmons doesn't play the game he did on Sunday, they lose to the Eagles!  Thanks for all your hard work and breakdown.  You're one of the class guys on this site.

TurnstoneMoney PM TurnstoneMoney
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Posted: 10/10/2012 6:58:31 PM
So would you pay -135 for +7 or go with 6.5 -118

Courtesy of 5dimes.eu
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/10/2012 7:21:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:

So would you pay -135 for +7 or go with 6.5 -118

Courtesy of 5dimes.eu

I had the same option to take it at 7 (-125) and I decided to pass for lower juice.  I think the value is so great that if they don't cover the 6, they're probably going to lose by 20 hahaha.  Since it's a risky proposition to begin with (betting on my #28th ranked team), I'd prefer not to lower my return on risk any more than it is.
chivashoolio PM chivashoolio
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Posted: 10/10/2012 7:23:04 PM
not disagreeing with the pick but how are the steelers not a top defense anymore? they were ranked number 1 in total defense last year and still have a lot of those guys, they raped vick constantly on sunday. just curious, thanks
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/10/2012 7:58:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chivashoolio:

not disagreeing with the pick but how are the steelers not a top defense anymore? they were ranked number 1 in total defense last year and still have a lot of those guys, they raped vick constantly on sunday. just curious, thanks

Look at the sheets.. look at their defensive numbers.. it's all there.  They're not that good anymore.. and they're riddled with key injuries.
Numero_Uno PM Numero_Uno
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Posted: 10/10/2012 8:12:56 PM
Another play I really like is the Cards -4.5.  I see your sheet somewhat likes that as well.  Any thoughts as to whether you would play the Cards here?
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/10/2012 8:20:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Numero_Uno:

Another play I really like is the Cards -4.5.  I see your sheet somewhat likes that as well.  Any thoughts as to whether you would play the Cards here?

The Bills are the worst defense in the NFL.  I will not be betting on them anytime soon.  It's all about finding the right spots to bet against them.  All the numbers say Arizona is a steal at -4.5... but in the NFL some things are too good to be true.  If there's a game to expect maximum effort from the Bills, it's this one.
shootitall PM shootitall
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Posted: 10/10/2012 8:24:50 PM
test
mariner24 PM mariner24
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Posted: 10/10/2012 8:32:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


The Bills are the worst defense in the NFL.  I will not be betting on them anytime soon.  It's all about finding the right spots to bet against them.  All the numbers say Arizona is a steal at -4.5... but in the NFL some things are too good to be true.  If there's a game to expect maximum effort from the Bills, it's this one.
  bills staying out on the west coast after that 49ers debacle. they will be focused. and their d-line that they paid so much money for is gonna be pissed off after getting ripped over and over on ESPN all week. ....and we all see what the rams pass rush did to Kolb last week....
Numero_Uno PM Numero_Uno
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Posted: 10/10/2012 10:39:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mariner24:

  bills staying out on the west coast after that 49ers debacle. they will be focused. and their d-line that they paid so much money for is gonna be pissed off after getting ripped over and over on ESPN all week. ....and we all see what the rams pass rush did to Kolb last week....

Mario Williams has to actually care enough to be pissed.  Having lived in Houston and followed the Texans during their entire existence, let me just say that it is unlikely he cares about getting ripped on ESPN or anywhere else.  
FadeOnly PM FadeOnly
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Posted: 10/10/2012 11:30:37 PM
Good luck this week, bud.  Looks good so far.  Steelers win without covering, I think.
Action_Junkee PM Action_Junkee
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Posted: 10/11/2012 12:11:29 AM
peace handshake
ReadBtWtheLines PM ReadBtWtheLines
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Posted: 10/11/2012 12:31:06 AM
Si1ly..if you have a moment my man I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on a suicide pick this week...I'm in some big pools...and still alive in both...this is the first week I'm really torn....

I've used Philly, Cinncy, Chicago, Baltimore and NO...trying to avoid the top consensus pick in Atlanta, in case the unthinkable should happen...(i.e zona/ne)...any thoughts would be really awesome. Thanks a mil in advance.

Cheers. 
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/11/2012 9:33:54 AM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/11/2012 1:35:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ReadBtWtheLines:

Si1ly..if you have a moment my man I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on a suicide pick this week...I'm in some big pools...and still alive in both...this is the first week I'm really torn....

I've used Philly, Cinncy, Chicago, Baltimore and NO...trying to avoid the top consensus pick in Atlanta, in case the unthinkable should happen...(i.e zona/ne)...any thoughts would be really awesome. Thanks a mil in advance.

Cheers. 

Honestly Atlanta is the best survivor pick this week.  The rest of the games are too close to call for the moneyline.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/11/2012 1:36:04 PM
Some people might get burned with Pitt tonight, I think Tenn can win straight-up.
ReadBtWtheLines PM ReadBtWtheLines
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Posted: 10/11/2012 2:08:57 PM
Thanks brother...I was thinking the same. Gonna roll with them and hope for the best of it. Cheers and best of luck this weekend.
rosaritoking PM rosaritoking
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Posted: 10/11/2012 2:45:04 PM
GL on your picks silly!  
fras PM fras
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Posted: 10/11/2012 2:47:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FadeOnly:

Good luck this week, bud.  Looks good so far.  Steelers win without covering, I think.

That is what it is  Agree 100% as in all  and most night games so far, 

That means money line is the bet. For Steelers, and to compensate the bookmakers Titan 6.5 .
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