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[NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 6 - NFL Breakdown Sheets |
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si1ly |
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#1 Posted: 10/9/2012 11:15:11 AM
COPY & PASTE THE LINK BELOW:
https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit
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si1ly |
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#2 Posted: 10/9/2012 11:15:59 AM
01 San Francisco 49ers 02 Chicago Bears 03 Baltimore Ravens 04 Green Bay Packers 05 Houston Texans 06 Atlanta Falcons 07 Minnesota Vikings 08 Denver Broncos 09 New England Patriots 10 Arizona Cardinals 11 St. Louis Rams 12 Seattle Seahawks 13 Washington Redskins 14 Miami Dolphins 15 Philadelphia Eagles 16 Detroit Lions 17 New York Giants 18 Dallas Cowboys 19 Carolina Panthers 20 Cincinnati Bengals 21 San Diego Chargers 22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 New York Jets 24 Indianapolis Colts 25 Pittsburgh Steelers 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Cleveland Browns 28 Kansas City Chiefs 29 Tennessee Titans 30 New Orleans Saints 31 Buffalo Bills 32 Oakland Raiders
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PrimeTimeBoys |
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#3 Posted: 10/9/2012 11:20:10 AM |
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Crashdavis565 |
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#4 Posted: 10/9/2012 11:27:55 AM
Agrees with what I saw
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si1ly |
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#5 Posted: 10/9/2012 11:29:52 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:
Whose your top play this week Si1ly?..............I saw we matched up on my top play last week, the Seahawks.................
Too early to say.. I just finished updating my databases to calculate RPI and I'm only now just beginning to run the sheets for this coming week. I can say with certainty that we won't be matching up on our top play this week.. these are the Giants defensive RPI ranks.
MOV = #24 YDS/PT = #26 YDS/PLAY = #30 YDS/ATT = #26 YDS/CAR = #30
I can't back a defense like this on the road catching less than a touchdown. I know this game looks like an inflated spread with the way San Francisco's defense has been performing, but with New York as such a public team, I think oddsmakers set this as high as they were willing - and I'm not sure it was quite high enough. I've got this game lined at SF -7 |
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si1ly |
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#6 Posted: 10/9/2012 11:32:43 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:
Saints at 30
Agrees with what I saw
Purely quantitative ranking. I make no adjustments to the output.. this is how the teams rank statistically to one another with a very heavy weight towards their RPI's. The Saints are bad. They rank in the bottom 25% in every net statistical measure that my power rankings draw from. |
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PrimeTimeBoys |
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#7 Posted: 10/9/2012 11:45:43 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
Too early to say.. I just finished updating my databases to calculate RPI and I'm only now just beginning to run the sheets for this coming week. I can say with certainty that we won't be matching up on our top play this week.. these are the Giants defensive RPI ranks.
MOV = #24 YDS/PT = #26 YDS/PLAY = #30 YDS/ATT = #26 YDS/CAR = #30
I can't back a defense like this on the road catching less than a touchdown. I know this game looks like an inflated spread with the way San Francisco's defense has been performing, but with New York as such a public team, I think oddsmakers set this as high as they were willing - and I'm not sure it was quite high enough. I've got this game lined at SF -7
Thank you for the information............I may put the 49ers in a few 10 point teasers to catch +5 & try for a middle & hope for a 49ers 3 point win or a Giants 3 point win. |
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VegasBorn |
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#8 Posted: 10/9/2012 12:28:00 PM |
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si1ly |
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#9 Posted: 10/9/2012 12:32:49 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by VegasBorn:
Hey si1ly, I added you as a friend. Would you mind adding me? Wanted to PM you some questions. Thanks!
Added
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si1ly |
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#10 Posted: 10/9/2012 12:33:31 PM |
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hawgpix |
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#11 Posted: 10/9/2012 12:41:27 PM  GL this wk |
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#12 Posted: 10/9/2012 12:57:22 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
Added
Thanks. Will PM in a few.... swamped at work |
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cardifkill |
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#13 Posted: 10/9/2012 2:23:46 PM  |
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#14 Posted: 10/9/2012 2:44:16 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by cardifkill: 08 Denver Broncos
Not sure what you're implying, but they have lost to 3 top ten teams. Each game they lose they start very slow, pick up the tempo, and come close to finishing the comeback.
Interested to see how the adjust to come out of the gates a little quicker.
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si1ly |
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#15 Posted: 10/9/2012 3:45:30 PM |
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#16 Posted: 10/9/2012 4:17:20 PM I'm still getting +2.5 offered on the Denver line and I don't see myself flipping sides during the week. I'm going to lock in at this number expecting it to close around +1 or PK.
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#17 Posted: 10/9/2012 4:18:14 PM
Locked in:
MNF - Denver Broncos +2.5 (-105)
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Coors13 |
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#18 Posted: 10/9/2012 6:20:01 PM
I like your breakdown sheets! It is very similar to what I did last year, but yours are far more detailed. Well done!
Question: How are your projected spreads and and totals being determined? Is it purely based on statistical calculations and RPI? Or do you factor in home/away, active/inactive players, etc? If it's mathematical, how is that being calculated?
I'm impressed with what you have done, I'm just looking to see how you should interpret your project spreads and totals against the current lines.
Thanks! |
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BigTenWatto |
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#19 Posted: 10/9/2012 7:02:59 PM |
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#20 Posted: 10/9/2012 8:03:47 PM |
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#21 Posted: 10/10/2012 1:50:39 AM
You not willing to touch Tennessee for the Thursday night game? Getting 3 more points then your chart projects.
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#22 Posted: 10/10/2012 2:59:16 AM |
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statsman49 |
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#23 Posted: 10/10/2012 10:12:31 AM |
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si1ly |
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#24 Posted: 10/10/2012 10:26:46 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:
@si1ly
You not willing to touch Tennessee for the Thursday night game? Getting 3 more points then your chart projects.
I am seriously considering the Titans on Thursday. My book has already moved the line to 6 and I'm waiting to see if they'll give me the hook or drop the juice so I can buy it. I'd love to get 6.5 here. |
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si1ly |
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#25 Posted: 10/10/2012 10:31:48 AM
The strength of schedule (SOS) rankings are incorrect on this weeks sheets. I made an error in my database and the rankings published on the sheets are from another stat category. I have made the correction on my master sheet and I will try and find time to rerun the sheets. Please take this into advisement when reviewing strength of schedule. I apologize for the confusion.. I'm still working out the bugs in my database. |
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