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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 6 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:15:11 AM


COPY & PASTE THE LINK BELOW:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit





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#2
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:15:59 AM
Quantitative Power Rankings

01 San Francisco 49ers
02 Chicago Bears
03 Baltimore Ravens
04 Green Bay Packers
05 Houston Texans
06 Atlanta Falcons
07 Minnesota Vikings
08 Denver Broncos
09 New England Patriots
10 Arizona Cardinals
11 St. Louis Rams
12 Seattle Seahawks
13 Washington Redskins
14 Miami Dolphins
15 Philadelphia Eagles
16 Detroit Lions
17 New York Giants
18 Dallas Cowboys
19 Carolina Panthers
20 Cincinnati Bengals
21 San Diego Chargers
22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23 New York Jets
24 Indianapolis Colts
25 Pittsburgh Steelers
26 Jacksonville Jaguars
27 Cleveland Browns
28 Kansas City Chiefs
29 Tennessee Titans
30 New Orleans Saints
31 Buffalo Bills
32 Oakland Raiders

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#3
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:20:10 AM
Whose your top play this week Si1ly?..............I saw we matched up on my top play last week, the Seahawks.................
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Crashdavis565
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#4
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:27:55 AM
Saints at 30



Agrees with what I saw

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#5
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:29:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Whose your top play this week Si1ly?..............I saw we matched up on my top play last week, the Seahawks.................

Too early to say.. I just finished updating my databases to calculate RPI and I'm only now just beginning to run the sheets for this coming week.  I can say with certainty that we won't be matching up on our top play this week.. these are the Giants defensive RPI ranks.

MOV = #24
YDS/PT = #26
YDS/PLAY = #30
YDS/ATT = #26
YDS/CAR = #30

I can't back a defense like this on the road catching less than a touchdown.  I know this game looks like an inflated spread with the way San Francisco's defense has been performing, but with New York as such a public team, I think oddsmakers set this as high as they were willing - and I'm not sure it was quite high enough.  I've got this game lined at SF -7
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#6
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:32:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:

Saints at 30



Agrees with what I saw


Purely quantitative ranking.  I make no adjustments to the output.. this is how the teams rank statistically to one another with a very heavy weight towards their RPI's.  The Saints are bad.  They rank in the bottom 25% in every net statistical measure that my power rankings draw from.
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#7
Posted: 10/9/2012 11:45:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Too early to say.. I just finished updating my databases to calculate RPI and I'm only now just beginning to run the sheets for this coming week.  I can say with certainty that we won't be matching up on our top play this week.. these are the Giants defensive RPI ranks.

MOV = #24
YDS/PT = #26
YDS/PLAY = #30
YDS/ATT = #26
YDS/CAR = #30

I can't back a defense like this on the road catching less than a touchdown.  I know this game looks like an inflated spread with the way San Francisco's defense has been performing, but with New York as such a public team, I think oddsmakers set this as high as they were willing - and I'm not sure it was quite high enough.  I've got this game lined at SF -7


Thank you for the information............I may put the 49ers in a few 10 point teasers to catch +5 & try for a middle & hope for a 49ers 3 point win or a Giants 3 point win.
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#8
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:28:00 PM
Hey si1ly, I added you as a friend.  Would you mind adding me?  Wanted to PM you some questions.  Thanks!
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#9
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:32:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VegasBorn:

Hey si1ly, I added you as a friend.  Would you mind adding me?  Wanted to PM you some questions.  Thanks!

Added

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#10
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:33:31 PM
How obnoxious, an advertisement embedded between posts.
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#11
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:41:27 PM
 GL this wk
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#12
Posted: 10/9/2012 12:57:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Added


Thanks.  Will PM in a few.... swamped at work 
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#13
Posted: 10/9/2012 2:23:46 PM
08 Denver Broncos
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#14
Posted: 10/9/2012 2:44:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cardifkill:

08 Denver Broncos


Not sure what you're implying, but they have lost to 3 top ten teams. Each game they lose they start very slow, pick up the tempo, and come close to finishing the comeback.

Interested to see how the adjust to come out of the gates a little quicker.

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#15
Posted: 10/9/2012 3:45:30 PM
Rest of the games added.  Still waiting on an injury update for RGIII before I run Washington.
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#16
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:17:20 PM
I'm still getting +2.5 offered on the Denver line and I don't see myself flipping sides during the week.  I'm going to lock in at this number expecting it to close around +1 or PK.

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#17
Posted: 10/9/2012 4:18:14 PM


Locked in:

MNF - Denver Broncos +2.5 (-105)





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#18
Posted: 10/9/2012 6:20:01 PM
Hey si1ly!

I like your breakdown sheets! It is very similar to what I did last year, but yours are far more detailed. Well done!

Question: How are your projected spreads and and totals being determined? Is it purely based on statistical calculations and RPI? Or do you factor in home/away, active/inactive players, etc? If it's mathematical, how is that being calculated? 

I'm impressed with what you have done, I'm just looking to see how you should interpret your project spreads and totals against the current lines. 

Thanks!
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#19
Posted: 10/9/2012 7:02:59 PM
Hey Silly, what am I missing on Cincy? How are they only a 1 point favorite?
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#20
Posted: 10/9/2012 8:03:47 PM
Nice work
Posted using a mobile device.
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Kaka123
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#21
Posted: 10/10/2012 1:50:39 AM
@si1ly

You not willing to touch Tennessee for the Thursday night game? Getting 3 more points then your chart projects.
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#22
Posted: 10/10/2012 2:59:16 AM
Love these sheets, very useful and informative. Ty & BOL Silly.
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#23
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:12:31 AM
Love the early Denver play ! Missed the boat line 1 now might just watch this one But liked parts of what Denver did against the pats.. Also Monday night Peyton back on the big stage I say he will want to prove a point on national t.v!
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#24
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:26:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaka123:

@si1ly

You not willing to touch Tennessee for the Thursday night game? Getting 3 more points then your chart projects.

I am seriously considering the Titans on Thursday.  My book has already moved the line to 6 and I'm waiting to see if they'll give me the hook or drop the juice so I can buy it.  I'd love to get 6.5 here.
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#25
Posted: 10/10/2012 10:31:48 AM
FYI -

The strength of schedule (SOS) rankings are incorrect on this weeks sheets.  I made an error in my database and the rankings published on the sheets are from another stat category.  I have made the correction on my master sheet and I will try and find time to rerun the sheets.  Please take this into advisement when reviewing strength of schedule.  I apologize for the confusion.. I'm still working out the bugs in my database.
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