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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:29:49 AM


COPY & PASTE THE LINK BELOW:

https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit





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#2
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:31:16 AM
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#3
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:32:30 AM
CURRENT POWER RANKINGS

#01 Baltimore Ravens
#02 Houston Texans
#03 San Francisco 49ers
#04 Atlanta Falcons
#05 Arizona Cardinals
#06 Denver Broncos
#07 Green Bay Packers
#08 New England Patriots
#09 Minnesota Vikings
#10 Philadelphia Eagles
#11 Chicago Bears
#11 Seattle Seahawks
#13 Miami Dolphins
#14 St. Louis Rams
#15 New York Giants
#16 San Diego Chargers
#16 Washington Redskins
#18 Cincinnati Bengals
#19 Detroit Lions
#20 Dallas Cowboys
#21 Carolina Panthers
#22 Jacksonville Jaguars
#22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#24 Cleveland Browns
#25 Pittsburgh Steelers
#26 Buffalo Bills
#27 New York Jets
#28 Indianapolis Colts
#29 Tennessee Titans
#30 Kansas City Chiefs
#31 New Orleans Saints
#32 Oakland Raiders

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#4
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:33:00 AM
Most of what you see on the sheets is standard advanced data for NFL teams.  Obviously the fundamentals are there such such as attempts, yards, points, record etc... as well as the important efficiency measures (yards per point - play - rushing attempt - passing attempt).

What I'm really proud of though is the Relative Performance Index at the top.  The issue that stats guys run into when analyzing the NFL is twofold - 1) the sample size is small and 2) the level of competition is unequal from team to team.  I developed the RPI index to account for this.  Basically 0.0 would be the expected production based on the combined average of that teams competition.

For example, New England's offense scores 28 points per game, but the four opponents they've played average giving up 31, 27, 33, 28.  (31+27+33+28) / 4 = 29.75.  Thus their offensive points per game rating is -1.75.  They're scoring 1.75 points per game less than what would be expected looking at their competition.  This is important since 28 points might seem like a lot and rank highly in the NFL, but -1.75 is below expectations and probably ranks in the bottom third.

In this way, the RPI normalizes the playing field so every team can be compared relative to the competition they've played.  It solves everything.
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#5
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:33:57 AM
Few games I'm leaning on:

Indy +8
Denver +7 / ML
Baltimore -6
Cleveland +10 (-120)
Philadelphia +3.5 / ML
Seattle +3 / ML

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#6
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:39:20 AM
I started this thread to comply with Covers new rules on sharing hyperlinks.  Please disregard the old thread and use this one for questions and comments for the remainder of the weekend.
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#7
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:58:19 AM
People are playing the Rams tonight just because they think it's a 'sharp' play or because Arizona is due to 'come back to earth'.  Neither of these are sound reasons to make a bet.  Handicap the match-up.  How many offensive touchdowns do the Rams have this season?
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#8
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:10:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:

People are playing the Rams tonight just because they think it's a 'sharp' play or because Arizona is due to 'come back to earth'.  Neither of these are sound reasons to make a bet.  Handicap the match-up.  How many offensive touchdowns do the Rams have this season?


Brian Schottenheimer is one of the worst Offensive Coordinators in the NFL.  Ask any Jets fan. 
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#9
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:47:58 AM
good garbage si1ly glad to see you in the football forum now, cant wait for baseball post season as well, who you liking?? i got the  cardinals vs rams in a teaser tonight where i have cardinals +4.5 and O33.5 total
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#10
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:51:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MakeitRain84:

good garbage si1ly glad to see you in the football forum now, cant wait for baseball post season as well, who you liking?? i got the  cardinals vs rams in a teaser tonight where i have cardinals +4.5 and O33.5 total

These two offenses are just as capable of finishing at 25 total points as 45... taking the over tonight even in a teaser is not for the faint of heart.
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#11
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:57:34 AM
Silly will u have a play for tonight's game? If not I'm going to lock in cardinals right now
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#12
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:59:59 AM
Also liking under 39.5.. Thoughts?
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#13
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:01:29 PM
Whats your opinion on Minnesota beating the Titans SU, I am in a million $ survivor pool, thinking of taking them as my week 5 pick.  I like the 49ers as well, but would like to save them for the future because it is a 2 pick pool come week 10.
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#14
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:04:39 PM
see you later bobby v 

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#15
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:23:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by brent0887:

see you later bobby v 


I hope never.
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#16
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:24:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lakerboy:

Silly will u have a play for tonight's game? If not I'm going to lock in cardinals right now

If I make a play it will be on Arizona or the under.
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#17
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:25:42 PM

I like it, Si1ly!!

However, I like STL........ and the UNDER.

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#18
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:35:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


I hope never.

local news reported he is gone 
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#19
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:39:09 PM
For some reason I get the feeling that St. Louis will will tonight
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#20
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:39:34 PM
Nice sheets as always si1ly
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#21
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:42:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mlesnet:

For some reason I get the feeling that St. Louis will will tonight

St. Louis is becoming a popular underdog pick.. that's a dangerous situation in NFL wagering.  Home dogs have been cash cows for four weeks.. now that the public wants to join in on the fun, it goes the other way.  Seems to happen this way more often than not.
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#22
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:44:08 PM
Thinking of a Rams and Braves Parlay
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#23
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:46:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


St. Louis is becoming a popular underdog pick.. that's a dangerous situation in NFL wagering.  Home dogs have been cash cows for four weeks.. now that the public wants to join in on the fun, it goes the other way.  Seems to happen this way more often than not.


Yeah, I agree with you si1ly. I'm debating if I should buy up to 3.5 or just take the ML. How do you feel about the Braves today with Medlin at the mound?
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#24
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:48:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


St. Louis is becoming a popular underdog pick.. that's a dangerous situation in NFL wagering.  Home dogs have been cash cows for four weeks.. now that the public wants to join in on the fun, it goes the other way.  Seems to happen this way more often than not.


Nice work on the sheets but I believe the home dogs were 1-3 SU & AST last week & the Bengals turned into a road dog or the road favs would have been 4-1 SU & ATS...........
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#25
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:53:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sleible1:

Whats your opinion on Minnesota beating the Titans SU, I am in a million $ survivor pool, thinking of taking them as my week 5 pick.  I like the 49ers as well, but would like to save them for the future because it is a 2 pick pool come week 10.

The Titans have played one of the toughest schedules in football.  Public is way down on them - but they may not be as bad as they look.  Minnesota is a risky pick for this reason.  I do think they win, and my numbers show a sizable advantage at least on paper... but I'm very curious to see how the Titans regress in the coming weeks as their schedule loosens up.
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