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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 5
andarmac99 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
andarmac99
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#1
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:18:51 PM
YTD: 14-8 ATS

I bet these 4 earlier in the week and it's safe to say I won't be putting this "grabbing good lines" report card on my fridge this week.


Pittsburgh -3.5

Good spot for the Steelers here. The bye really came at a good time for this team as they are now the healthiest they have been all year with Harrison, Polamalu and Mendenhall all back. Their defense was shredded by the Raiders in their last game and with key players back and two weeks to prepare I think Lebeau will have these guys playing very well. This is the kind of game where they get back to clogging up the run game and forcing teams to throw it and obviously that is not a good thing for Philly. The Eagles were highly praised for their balance on offense last week but it's a near lock that they will run McCoy about 14 times and have Vick throw 50+. Vick couldn't read the Cardinals blitzing defense on the road how is he going to read the Steelers aggressive blitzing defense that is rested and looking to beat someone up after giving up 34 to Oakland?

The Eagles have a good defense but they are at a slight matchup disadvantage here. Their corners are big and physical and do better matching up against bigger receivers where they can play bump and run and press coverage. Pittsburgh's plethora of receivers are all small, very quick/shifty type players who should be able to find some plays around the bigger corners of the Eagles. And we all know Philly's safeties are still crap. Ben is the best pump faker the league has ever seen and there should be a couple of plays where he's got those guys looking completely foolish.


Tennessee +5

For the 4th time already this year I'll be involved in a Titans game. I may be the only one left but I still don't think they are THAT bad. I've said it numerous times but they've got some solid talent on this club and the good news is Chris Johnson finally got going last week against a great Texans defense. He was solid all game too and didn't just bust one long run to boost his stats as his longest rush was only 19 yards, he was consistently ripping off solid yardage. That game was closer than the score indicated last week. They were only down 7 at halftime before Hasselbeck threw 2 Pick 6's and lost a fumble to blow the game open in the 2nd half. This team is only -0.1 net YPP.

Minnesota is a nice looking young team but I'm not sure they are ready to be a medium sized favorite yet. They don't have a blowout type of offense and are more of a grind it out team. They are also off two very physical games with the Niners and in getting a huge division road win over the Lions. I'm not sure this is the spot where a young team not familiar with winning comes out and plays their A game against what is seen as a much lesser team.


Cleveland +10 (-125)


If it ain't broke don't fix it. This is the kind of game the Giants always play like crap in. They can talk all they want about coming out and taking care of business but when they say the same thing time after time in these situations and still play like garbage then how much are their words really worth? Not to mention this is a pretty big sandwich game after a very tough division road loss to the Eagles and then having to play @SF next week in another huge game. Are they really going to get up and beat the crap out of the worst team in the league in this spot? Would you be excited if you were a Giant here to kill Cleveland or would you just be looking to get the W and avoid getting injured again before San Fran comes at you physically next week? Let's not forget just how banged up this Giants team is right now either. Are they good enough to beat anybody by more than 10 right now? Browns may be a little under the radar right now at 2-1-1 ATS and have had some extra days to work on things.


New Orleans -3 (-125)

No real elaborate writeup for this game. I just think the Saints show up in this one with some pride more than anything. They lost a real tough one last week and normally that's a negative but the fact they are still winless, playing a 3-1 team, and at home on SNF negates that IMO. Brees actually started looking like himself last week and if he's on the Saints will score. I can't say much about the Saints defense but I'm not really in love with the Chargers offense at this point either. Very misleading score for them last week, KC had 6 turnovers and the game was over almost before it started. This Chargers team has a history of looking pretty awful when they don't play well. SD also hosts Denver at home on MNF next week. I know they won't really be looking past the Saints here but would a loss really kill them? If you polled all 53 Chargers players I bet all of them would say next week's game is far, far more important.


I really like the card this week. Looking at 7-8 plays.
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#2
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:25:33 PM
I have a funny feeling this is the week it really hits home that the Steelers are a 7 win team this year. Lean your way on all the others, good luck.
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#3
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:30:18 PM
Holy sheepshit batman...I like all 4 again Andarmac..here's to us hitting them!
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#4
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:31:23 PM
knew there was a reason i stayed away from eagles  
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#5
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:33:15 PM
Raems

the steelers are not a 7 win team!  Judge them with mendenhall polamalu and harrison back and then see whats up. Eagles have won 3 games by 4 pts combined and will lose this game by 7+
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#6
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:34:27 PM
Love all the picks this week. mY GIANTS always keep teams close on big spreads. I would be shocked if we blow out clev
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#7
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:48:38 PM
really like some of those, BOL bud
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#8
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:55:21 PM
raems - I'm not sold on the Steelers for the season either. I just like the spot here. Truth be told this is a scenario where the dog who has been floundering around for a stretch can rise up and play a good game against a good team. Problem is the Eagles are 3-1 and Steelers are 1-2. PIT will give it their all this week IMO and it's not a good on-field matchup for the Eagles. I think next week @TEN and the week after @CIN are spots they give it back.

xflrejects - Let's hope so brother. Really tough board in the CFL this week. Not sure I've seen so many injuries. Kinda wanted to play the Lions but not sure with Geroy and Bruce out. GL.
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#9
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:56:33 PM
Pop Quiz: What do Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Peyton Manning have in common this season?


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#10
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:59:27 PM
They are all white quarterbacks
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#11
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:59:48 PM
They've never been in my kitchen......
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#12
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:00:17 PM

Kidding.......sorry to bring a good thread down.

 

I have no idea what they have in common.

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#13
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:02:05 PM

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#14
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:03:03 PM
They've all lost a game?
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#15
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:47:54 PM
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#16
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:45:12 AM
Can't argue with any of those, will probably be on all of them. Especially love Pitt and NO
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#17
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:09:23 AM
I just played 3 games (1 unit each)

Denver, San Diego (feel better if SF covered against Buffalo), Houston
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#18
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:18:32 AM
Agree with your Tennessee pick. Public has overreacted to MINNY's performance over the last two weeks - at the most they should be a 3.0 - 3.5 favorite. I know Hasslebeck had a rough time last week but I think he's a better QB than Locker. Titans really need this game to right the ship and like you said C.J. finally got going last week. I see this game being decided by a field goal either way. Good Luck
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#19
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:50:40 AM

Minny is one of my biggest plays. How can you not overreact to the past two weeks. The key to capping is recognizing a team like Minny is going to go far and riding that money train. TENN while playing a very tough opening schedule is in big trouble here.

Opening with NE SD DET and HOU going 1-3 is about the best you could do with that schedule. Problem is Tenn is going on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. TENN have the worst D in the NFL giving up 37 per. Minny has one of the best giving up 18 per and holding SF and DET to 14 each. Tenn is giving up 136 RYPG while Minny is giving up only 85.  Ill lay the 5

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#20
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:48:19 PM
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#21
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:48:54 PM
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#22
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:01:01 PM
Like the card too Andy. Wish I could contribute more, but work blocked Covers again, and been real busy at home.....will try to get back later in the week for more info.....

I hit GB-7.5. KC+7. Jax+7. Jets+9. Also sitting on the Saints. I'm stuck with only one local this year and the lines are brutal for the most part, BUT he seems to shade favorites a good point or more higher, so I do get decent value when I bet dogs. Anyway saints were 3.5 all week and I was waiting to get that hook. Today it shaded to 4. Normally I would grab before it goes higher, but I'm starting to see a pattern with this scumbag. I jump on 4, and it will be 3.5 by the end of the day again. So sitting on them. Highest I will go is -4 so we shall see.

Great write up on the Titans. Agree 100%. isee them at 6 now. Will jump on 6.5 if it comes and probably settle for 6 if it stops there.

Also hit Cincinnati -4. I love this squad and think they pound miami(and Miami is a team I like and think they get less respect than they deserve).

If I don't get back, GL as always and the covers handshake at the end(no idea how to do it on my phone).
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#23
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:03:01 PM
Pop quiz answer. They all are pounding hot box????

Lol.
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#24
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:05:31 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by cambyspree99:

Raems

the steelers are not a 7 win team!  Judge them with mendenhall polamalu and harrison back and then see whats up. Eagles have won 3 games by 4 pts combined and will lose this game by 7+

 

Pitt off a bye w/starters back, at home and lose by 7+.....please give me your $$$.

Vick gonna take some big big hits this game

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#25
Posted: 10/4/2012 5:07:15 PM

Love the Tenn play Mac------It's looking more and more like fade the Vikings as a favorite and play on as a dog. I also have the Saints but opted to lay the 3.5 and take a more reasonable vig.

GL MAN KEEP ROCKIN IN THE NFL

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