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Author:	[NFL Betting] Topic: New Statistical System week 5 pics
wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#1 Posted: 10/3/2012 1:46:39 PM Hey everyone, I was board at the lab over the past couple of weeks so I decided to create an algorythm to predict the total point scored and outcomes of games, using excel to speed up the process. Just wanted to post what the system predicted for this week, any comments or suggestions would be greatly appreciated!!!!!
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#2 Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:20 PM Arizona at St. Louis Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System ARI 301 4-0 (1-0 V) 60% 39.5 24 STL 302 2-2 (2-0 H) 40% 1 18 Pick = Over 39.5 and Arizona -1 42
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#3 Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:36 PM Atlanta at Washington Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System ATL 411 4-0 (2-0 V) 66% 50.5 31 WAS 412 2-2 (0-1 H) 34% 3 28 Pick = Over 50.5, Push 59 Green Bay at Indianapolis Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System GB 415 2-2 (0-1 V) 78% 47.5 25 IND 416 1-2 (1-1 H) 22% 7 21 Pick = Under 47.5, Indianapolis + 7 46 Miami at Cincinnati Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System MIA 421 1-3 (0-2 V) 34% 45 26 CIN 422 3-1 (1-0 H) 66% -3.5 28 Pick= Over 45, Miami +3.5 54
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#4 Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:57 PM Seattle at Carolina Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System SEA 425 2-2 (0-2 V) 34% 43.5 26 CAR 426 1-3 (1-1 H) 66% -3 18 Pick = Over 43.5, Seattle + 3 44 Denver at New England Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System DEN 429 2-2 (0-1 V) 54% 51.5 27 NE 430 2-2 (0-1 H) 46% -6.5 25 Pick = Over 51.5, Denver + 7 52 Tennessee at Minnesota Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System TEN 419 1-3 (0-2 V) 38% 44 24 MIN 420 3-1 (2-0 H) 62% -6 32 Pick= Over 44, Vikings - 6 56 Houston at N.Y. Jets Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System HOU 435 4-0 (2-0 V) 61% 41.5 33 NYJ 436 2-2 (1-1 H) 39% 9 19 Pick = Over 41.5, Houston - 9 52
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#5 Posted: 10/3/2012 2:09:14 PM Philadelphia at Pittsburgh Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System PHI 413 3-1 (1-1 V) 45% 44 19 PIT 414 1-2 (1-0 H) 55% -3.5 24 Pick = Under 44, Pittsburgh - 3.5 43 Cleveland at N.Y. Giants Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System CLE 417 0-4 (0-2 V) 39% 44 21 NYG 418 2-2 (1-1 H) 61% -9.5 27 Pick = Over 44, Cleveland +9.5 48 Baltimore at Kansas City Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System BAL 423 3-1 (0-1 V) 80% 46.5 34 KC 424 1-3 (0-2 H) 20% 5 22 Pick = Over 46.5, Baltimore – 5 56 Chicago at Jacksonville Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System CHI 427 3-1 (1-1 V) 78% 40 29 JAC 428 1-3 (0-2 H) 22% 6 14 Pick = Over 40, Chicago - 6 43
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#6 Posted: 10/3/2012 2:09:53 PM Buffalo at San Francisco Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System BUF 431 2-2 (1-1 V) 35% 44.5 24 SF 432 3-1 (1-0 H) 65% -9.5 29 Pick = Over 44.5, Buffalo + 10 53 San Diego at New Orleans Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System SD 433 3-1 (2-0 V) 41% 54 29 NO 434 0-4 (0-2 H) 59% -3.5 24 Pick = Under 54, San Diego +3.5 53
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michael-5	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Mar 2009 Posts: 12 Location:	#7 Posted: 10/3/2012 11:56:30 PM I'll bite. What's the algorithm? What are you doing to come up with the totals?
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JamesWynsAllDay	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 167 Location: Vietnam	#8 Posted: 10/4/2012 12:56:55 AM interesting...
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rr207	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Nov 2008 Posts: 1872 Location:	#9 Posted: 10/4/2012 1:07:23 AM How has this been working for you?
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TonySonnn	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Nov 2011 Posts: 108 Location:	#10 Posted: 10/4/2012 1:11:49 AM Not to rain on your parade... I wish you the BOL but seems like all your finals picks are going with the consensus (except 1). The consensus isn't always right... Hope this works out for you though...
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MPChino	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Apr 2012 Posts: 313 Location: Cambodia	#11 Posted: 10/4/2012 1:17:37 AM Rams 18 ? so 6 FGs tomorrow ? lol
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PrimeTimeBoys	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Sep 2007 Posts: 13343 Location: Pennsylvania	#12 Posted: 10/4/2012 1:32:17 AM Which lab were you BORED at & its ALGORITHMS...................none the less, I like some of your plays, gl this week....................
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cardifkill	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Veteran Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 2419 Location: California	#13 Posted: 10/4/2012 2:59:09 AM KC Over
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hard8	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: BetUS.com \|
Veteran Joined: Sep 2006 Posts: 1019 Location: Hawaii	#14 Posted: 10/4/2012 3:12:50 AM Have you compared this system to the previous weeks? The thing with any mathematical system is that it doesn't take into consideration the human factor and how a team who should win will actually lose
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MNFTheory	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Oct 2007 Posts: 1426 Location:	#15 Posted: 10/4/2012 3:20:47 AM Good luck this weekend! Base on my theory on Monday Night Schedule I played 4 games: Chicago, Denver, San Diego & Houston (kinda scare since their value is really high). Won't play San Diego if SF did not covered against Buffalo +9.5 or +10!
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#16 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:37:10 AM To answer the questions. I work at a IT security lab performing penetration testing and vulnerability scans.
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#17 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:02 AM Cleveland at Baltimore Teams T Odds System Score CLE 16 11.5 20 BAL 23 44 29 Over Wrong 49 Cleveland Right New England at Buffalo Teams T Odds System Score NE 52 -3.5 30 BUF 28 48 28 Over Right 58 Buffalo Wrong San Diego at Kansas City Teams T Odds System Score SD 37 -1 30 KC 20 43 21 Over Right 51 San Diego Right Carolina at Atlanta Teams T Odds System Score CAR 28 7 23 ATL 30 48 30 Game Push 53 Over Right
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#18 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:24 AM Above and below are the systems pics for last weeks games.
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#19 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:48 AM San Francisco at N.Y. Jets Teams T Odds System Score SF 34 -3.5 28 NYJ 0 40.5 20 Over Wrong 48 SF Right Oakland at Denver System Score OAK 6 47 20 DEN 37 -6.5 31 Over Wrong 51 Dever Right New Orleans at Green Bay Teams T Odds System Score NO 27 7.5 24 GB 28 54 28 Under Wrong 52 NO Right N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia Teams T Odds System Score NYG 17 46 25 PHI 19 -2 21 Over/Under Push NYG Wrong Miami at Arizona Teams T System Score MIA 21 38.5 20 ARI 24 4 23 MIA Right Over Right
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#20 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:40:17 AM Cincinnati at Jacksonville System Score CIN 27 1 30 JAC 10 45.5 19 Over Wrong CIN Right Washington at Tampa Bay Teams T Odds System Score WAS 24 1.5 29 TB 22 44.5 27 WAS Right Over Right Chicago at Dallas Teams T Odds System Score CHI 34 3 27 DAL 18 41 15 CHI Right Over Right Tennessee at Houston System Score Teams T Odds TEN 14 44.5 23 HOU 38 -13 38 Over Right 61 HOU Right Minnesota at Detroit Teams T Odds System Score MIN 20 3.5 26 DET 13 48 20 Under Right 46 MIN Right Seattle at St. Louis Teams T Odds System Score SEA 13 39.5 21 STL 19 2 17 SEA Wrong 38 Under Right
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#21 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:44:23 AM So after subtracting the pushs w/ vegas predicted by the machine, there are 28 total bets, and utilizing last weeks numbers, the system went 20 for 28, which I am absolutely ecstatic with, however hitting at such a high number (71%) makes me afraid it was a statistical anomaly. I am keeping a heavy eye on it this weekend and just going to be $10 bucks on each one to see how it turns out. I'll be making tweaks if necessary.
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erratic	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 43 Location: Nevada	#22 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:48:28 AM is this by chance that football forecaster that sells for $50??
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#23 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:53:50 AM Here is how this works. you need the following data. Team 1: Offensive Points scored per game (OPPG) Special Teams Points scored per game (STPPG) Defensive Points scored per game (DPSPG) Team 2: Defensive Points allowed per game (DPAPG) Offensive Points allowed per game (OPAPG) Special Teams Points allowed per game (STPAPG) You need those stats, averaged out over the weighed portions of the 2012 season, Home/Away Statistics, and Last 3 (to determine the trending of the team). Once all of these stats have been compiled, it works like this to determine score of ONE of the team, for one of the 3 weighted scenarios. Team 1 Pts = (((OPPG + DPAPG)/2)+((DPSPG+OPAGP)/2)+((STPPG+STPAPG)/2)) If this is the "2012" statistics and we want to weight the over 2012 stats as comprising 70% of the score, then we multiply that number by .7, perform the same analysis with Home/Away and Last 3, weighting them appropriately, i.e. - Home/Away =20% and Last 3 = 10% to comprise 100% of the scoring. Add those three numbers up and there you have the points that should be scored by each team based on statistical prediction of each game based upon each teams ability to prevent points form being score and scoring points.
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wilsonmv2	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Oct 2012 Posts: 21 Location:	#24 Posted: 10/4/2012 11:54:47 AM Haha no this is just some bored guy who like to play with numbers in his spare time, NO CHARGE HERE, screw those guys they suck, they are all leaches, if they were doing so well then they'd be gambling them selves, why would they sell it to other people!!!!
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erratic	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Aug 2012 Posts: 43 Location: Nevada	#25 Posted: 10/4/2012 12:03:20 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by wilsonmv2: Arizona at St. Louis Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds System ARI 301 4-0 (1-0 V) 60% 39.5 24 STL 302 2-2 (2-0 H) 40% 1 18 Pick = Over 39.5 and Arizona -1 42 funny... I just looked at my predictor and it says: Arizona 23.6 St. Louis 18.4 TOTAL 42 imagine that...
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