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# New Statistical System week 5 pics

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 Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: New Statistical System week 5 pics wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #1Posted: 10/3/2012 1:46:39 PMHey everyone, I was board at the lab over the past couple of weeks so I decided to create an algorythm to predict the total point scored and outcomes of games, using excel to speed up the process.  Just wanted to post what the system predicted for this week, any comments or suggestions would be greatly appreciated!!!!! wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #2Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:20 PMArizona at St. Louis                                                                          Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System ARI         301         4-0 (1-0 V)           60%        39.5        24 STL         302         2-2 (2-0 H)           40%        1              18 Pick = Over 39.5 and Arizona -1                                  42 wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #3Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:36 PMAtlanta at Washington                                                                   Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System ATL         411         4-0 (2-0 V)           66%        50.5        31 WAS      412         2-2 (0-1 H)           34%        3              28 Pick = Over 50.5, Push                                                    59   Green Bay at Indianapolis                                                                            Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System GB          415         2-2 (0-1 V)           78%        47.5        25 IND        416         1-2 (1-1 H)           22%        7              21 Pick = Under 47.5, Indianapolis + 7                           46   Miami at Cincinnati                                                                          Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System MIA       421         1-3 (0-2 V)           34%        45           26 CIN         422         3-1 (1-0 H)           66%        -3.5        28 Pick= Over 45, Miami +3.5                                            54 wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #4Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:57 PMSeattle at Carolina                                                                           Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System SEA        425         2-2 (0-2 V)           34%        43.5        26 CAR        426         1-3 (1-1 H)           66%        -3            18 Pick = Over 43.5, Seattle + 3                                        44   Denver at New England                                                                                Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System DEN       429         2-2 (0-1 V)           54%        51.5        27 NE          430         2-2 (0-1 H)           46%        -6.5        25 Pick = Over 51.5, Denver + 7                                        52   Tennessee at Minnesota                                                                              Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System TEN        419         1-3 (0-2 V)           38%        44           24 MIN       420         3-1 (2-0 H)           62%        -6            32 Pick= Over 44,   Vikings - 6                                            56   Houston at N.Y. Jets                                                                       Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System HOU      435         4-0 (2-0 V)           61%        41.5        33 NYJ         436         2-2 (1-1 H)           39%        9              19 Pick = Over 41.5, Houston - 9                                      52 wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #5Posted: 10/3/2012 2:09:14 PMPhiladelphia at Pittsburgh                                                                            Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System PHI         413         3-1 (1-1 V)           45%        44           19 PIT          414         1-2 (1-0 H)           55%        -3.5        24 Pick = Under 44, Pittsburgh - 3.5                                                43   Cleveland at N.Y. Giants                                                                                Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System CLE         417         0-4 (0-2 V)           39%        44           21 NYG       418         2-2 (1-1 H)           61%        -9.5        27 Pick = Over 44, Cleveland +9.5                                    48   Baltimore at Kansas City                                                                                Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System BAL        423         3-1 (0-1 V)           80%        46.5        34 KC           424         1-3 (0-2 H)           20%        5              22 Pick = Over 46.5, Baltimore – 5                                   56   Chicago at Jacksonville                                                                   Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System CHI         427         3-1 (1-1 V)           78%        40           29 JAC         428         1-3 (0-2 H)           22%        6              14 Pick = Over 40, Chicago - 6                                            43 wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #6Posted: 10/3/2012 2:09:53 PMBuffalo at San Francisco                                                                                Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System BUF        431         2-2 (1-1 V)           35%        44.5        24 SF           432         3-1 (1-0 H)           65%        -9.5        29 Pick = Over 44.5, Buffalo + 10                                      53   San Diego at New Orleans                                                                            Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System SD           433         3-1 (2-0 V)           41%        54           29 NO         434         0-4 (0-2 H)           59%        -3.5        24 Pick = Under 54, San Diego +3.5                                 53 michael-5 PM michael-5Joined: Mar 2009Posts: 12 Prospect #7Posted: 10/3/2012 11:56:30 PMI'll bite. What's the algorithm? What are you doing to come up with the totals? JamesWynsAllDay PM JamesWynsAllDayJoined: Apr 2012Posts: 350 Prospect #8Posted: 10/4/2012 12:56:55 AMinteresting... rr207 PM rr207Joined: Nov 2008Posts: 2962 Veteran #9Posted: 10/4/2012 1:07:23 AMHow has this been working for you? TonySonnn PM TonySonnnJoined: Nov 2011Posts: 119 Prospect #10Posted: 10/4/2012 1:11:49 AMNot to rain on your parade... I wish you the BOL but seems like all your finals picks are going with the consensus (except 1). The consensus isn't always right... Hope this works out for you though... MPChino PM MPChinoJoined: Apr 2012Posts: 330 Prospect #11Posted: 10/4/2012 1:17:37 AMRams 18 ? so 6 FGs tomorrow ? lol PrimeTimeBoys PM PrimeTimeBoysJoined: Sep 2007Posts: 13343 Banned #12Posted: 10/4/2012 1:32:17 AMWhich lab were you BORED at & its ALGORITHMS...................none the less, I like some of your plays, gl this week.................... cardifkill PM cardifkillJoined: Jun 2012Posts: 2583 Veteran #13Posted: 10/4/2012 2:59:09 AMKC Over hard8 PM hard8Joined: Sep 2006Posts: 1019 Veteran #14Posted: 10/4/2012 3:12:50 AMHave you compared this system to the previous weeks?The thing with any mathematical system is that it doesn't take into consideration the human factor and how a team who should win will actually lose MNFTheory PM MNFTheoryJoined: Oct 2007Posts: 1446 Veteran #15Posted: 10/4/2012 3:20:47 AMGood luck this weekend!Base on my theory on Monday Night Schedule I played 4 games:  Chicago, Denver, San Diego & Houston (kinda scare since their value is really high).Won't play San Diego if SF did not covered against Buffalo +9.5 or +10! wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #16Posted: 10/4/2012 11:37:10 AMTo answer the questions.I work at a IT security lab performing penetration testing and vulnerability scans. wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #17Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:02 AMCleveland at Baltimore                                  Teams   T              Odds     System Score CLE         16           11.5        20 BAL        23           44           29 Over      Wrong                  49 Cleveland            Right                      New England at Buffalo                                 Teams   T              Odds     System Score NE          52           -3.5        30 BUF        28           48           28 Over      Right                      58 Buffalo Wrong                  San Diego at Kansas City                                               Teams   T              Odds     System Score SD           37           -1            30 KC           20           43           21 Over      Right                      51 San Diego            Right                                                                                                                      Carolina at Atlanta                                           Teams   T              Odds     System Score CAR        28           7              23 ATL         30           48           30 Game    Push                      53 Over      Right wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #18Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:24 AMAbove and below are the systems pics for last weeks games. wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #19Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:48 AMSan Francisco at N.Y. Jets                                              Teams   T              Odds     System Score SF           34           -3.5        28 NYJ         0              40.5        20 Over      Wrong                  48 SF           Right                      Oakland at Denver                                          System Score OAK       6              47           20 DEN       37           -6.5        31 Over      Wrong                  51 Dever    Right                      New Orleans at Green Bay                                          Teams   T              Odds     System Score NO         27           7.5          24 GB          28           54           28 Under   Wrong                  52 NO         Right                      N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia                                           Teams   T              Odds     System Score NYG       17           46           25 PHI         19           -2            21 Over/Under       Push                      NYG       Wrong                  Miami at Arizona                                              Teams   T                              System Score MIA       21           38.5        20 ARI         24           4              23 MIA       Right                      Over      Right wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #20Posted: 10/4/2012 11:40:17 AMCincinnati at Jacksonville System Score CIN         27           1                      30 JAC         10           45.5               19 Over      Wrong                  CIN         Right                      Washington at Tampa Bay                                            Teams   T              Odds     System Score WAS      24           1.5          29 TB           22           44.5        27 WAS      Right                      Over      Right                      Chicago at Dallas                                               Teams   T              Odds     System Score CHI         34           3              27 DAL        18           41           15 CHI         Right                      Over      Right                      Tennessee at Houston                                  System Score Teams   T              Odds     TEN        14           44.5        23 HOU      38           -13          38 Over      Right                      61 HOU      Right                      Minnesota at Detroit                                      Teams   T              Odds     System Score MIN       20           3.5          26 DET        13           48           20 Under   Right                      46 MIN       Right                      Seattle at St. Louis                                           Teams   T              Odds     System Score SEA        13           39.5        21 STL         19           2              17 SEA        Wrong                  38 Under   Right wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #21Posted: 10/4/2012 11:44:23 AMSo after subtracting the pushs w/ vegas predicted by the machine, there are 28 total bets, and utilizing last weeks numbers, the system went 20 for 28, which I am absolutely ecstatic with, however hitting at such a high number (71%) makes me afraid it was a statistical anomaly.  I am keeping a heavy eye on it this weekend and just going to be \$10 bucks on each one to see how it turns out.  I'll be making tweaks if necessary. erratic PM erraticJoined: Aug 2012Posts: 219 Prospect #22Posted: 10/4/2012 11:48:28 AMis this by chance that football forecaster that sells for \$50?? wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #23Posted: 10/4/2012 11:53:50 AMHere is how this works.you need the following data.Team 1: Offensive Points scored per game (OPPG)Special Teams Points scored per game (STPPG)Defensive Points scored per game (DPSPG)Team 2:Defensive Points allowed per game (DPAPG)Offensive Points allowed per game (OPAPG)Special Teams Points allowed per game (STPAPG)You need those stats, averaged out over the weighed portions of the 2012 season, Home/Away Statistics, and Last 3 (to determine the trending of the team). Once all of these stats have been compiled, it works like this to determine score of ONE of the team, for one of the 3 weighted scenarios.Team 1 Pts = (((OPPG + DPAPG)/2)+((DPSPG+OPAGP)/2)+((STPPG+STPAPG)/2))If this is the "2012" statistics and we want to weight the over 2012 stats as comprising 70% of the score, then we multiply that number by .7, perform the same analysis with Home/Away and Last 3, weighting them appropriately, i.e. - Home/Away =20% and Last 3 = 10% to comprise 100% of the scoring.  Add those three numbers up and there you have the points that should be scored by each team based on statistical prediction of each game based upon each teams ability to prevent points form being score and scoring points. wilsonmv2 PM wilsonmv2Joined: Oct 2012Posts: 21 Prospect #24Posted: 10/4/2012 11:54:47 AMHaha no this is just some bored guy who like to play with numbers in his spare time, NO CHARGE HERE, screw those guys they suck, they are all leaches, if they were doing so well then they'd be gambling them selves, why would they sell it to other people!!!! erratic PM erraticJoined: Aug 2012Posts: 219 Prospect #25Posted: 10/4/2012 12:03:20 PMQUOTE Originally Posted by wilsonmv2: Arizona at St. Louis                                                                          Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System ARI         301         4-0 (1-0 V)           60%        39.5        24 STL         302         2-2 (2-0 H)           40%        1              18 Pick = Over 39.5 and Arizona -1                                  42  funny... I just looked at my predictor and it says:Arizona 23.6St. Louis 18.4TOTAL 42imagine that...
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