|Here is how this works.
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:53:50 AM
you need the following data.
Offensive Points scored per game (OPPG)
Special Teams Points scored per game (STPPG)
Defensive Points scored per game (DPSPG)
Defensive Points allowed per game (DPAPG)
Offensive Points allowed per game (OPAPG)
Special Teams Points allowed per game (STPAPG)
You need those stats, averaged out over the weighed portions of the 2012 season, Home/Away Statistics, and Last 3 (to determine the trending of the team).
Once all of these stats have been compiled, it works like this to determine score of ONE of the team, for one of the 3 weighted scenarios.
Team 1 Pts = (((OPPG + DPAPG)/2)+((DPSPG+OPAGP)/2)+((STPPG+STPAPG)/2))
If this is the "2012" statistics and we want to weight the over 2012 stats as comprising 70% of the score, then we multiply that number by .7, perform the same analysis with Home/Away and Last 3, weighting them appropriately, i.e. - Home/Away =20% and Last 3 = 10% to comprise 100% of the scoring.
Add those three numbers up and there you have the points that should be scored by each team based on statistical prediction of each game based upon each teams ability to prevent points form being score and scoring points.