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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: New Statistical System week 5 pics
wilsonmv2 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/3/2012 1:46:39 PM
Hey everyone,

 I was board at the lab over the past couple of weeks so I decided to create an algorythm to predict the total point scored and outcomes of games, using excel to speed up the process.  Just wanted to post what the system predicted for this week, any comments or suggestions would be greatly appreciated!!!!!
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:20 PM

Arizona at St. Louis                                                                         

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

ARI         301         4-0 (1-0 V)           60%        39.5        24

STL         302         2-2 (2-0 H)           40%        1              18

Pick = Over 39.5 and Arizona -1                                  42 

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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:36 PM

Atlanta at Washington                                                                  

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

ATL         411         4-0 (2-0 V)           66%        50.5        31

WAS      412         2-2 (0-1 H)           34%        3              28

Pick = Over 50.5, Push                                                    59

 

Green Bay at Indianapolis                                                                           

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

GB          415         2-2 (0-1 V)           78%        47.5        25

IND        416         1-2 (1-1 H)           22%        7              21

Pick = Under 47.5, Indianapolis + 7                           46

 

Miami at Cincinnati                                                                         

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

MIA       421         1-3 (0-2 V)           34%        45           26

CIN         422         3-1 (1-0 H)           66%        -3.5        28

Pick= Over 45, Miami +3.5                                            54

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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:08:57 PM

Seattle at Carolina                                                                          

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

SEA        425         2-2 (0-2 V)           34%        43.5        26

CAR        426         1-3 (1-1 H)           66%        -3            18

Pick = Over 43.5, Seattle + 3                                        44

 

Denver at New England                                                                               

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

DEN       429         2-2 (0-1 V)           54%        51.5        27

NE          430         2-2 (0-1 H)           46%        -6.5        25

Pick = Over 51.5, Denver + 7                                        52

 

Tennessee at Minnesota                                                                             

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

TEN        419         1-3 (0-2 V)           38%        44           24

MIN       420         3-1 (2-0 H)           62%        -6            32

Pick= Over 44,   Vikings - 6                                            56

 

Houston at N.Y. Jets                                                                      

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

HOU      435         4-0 (2-0 V)           61%        41.5        33

NYJ         436         2-2 (1-1 H)           39%        9              19

Pick = Over 41.5, Houston - 9                                      52

quote
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:09:14 PM

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh                                                                           

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

PHI         413         3-1 (1-1 V)           45%        44           19

PIT          414         1-2 (1-0 H)           55%        -3.5        24

Pick = Under 44, Pittsburgh - 3.5                                                43

 

Cleveland at N.Y. Giants                                                                               

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

CLE         417         0-4 (0-2 V)           39%        44           21

NYG       418         2-2 (1-1 H)           61%        -9.5        27

Pick = Over 44, Cleveland +9.5                                    48

 

Baltimore at Kansas City                                                                               

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

BAL        423         3-1 (0-1 V)           80%        46.5        34

KC           424         1-3 (0-2 H)           20%        5              22

Pick = Over 46.5, Baltimore – 5                                   56

 

Chicago at Jacksonville                                                                  

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

CHI         427         3-1 (1-1 V)           78%        40           29

JAC         428         1-3 (0-2 H)           22%        6              14

Pick = Over 40, Chicago - 6                                            43

 

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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:09:53 PM

Buffalo at San Francisco                                                                               

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

BUF        431         2-2 (1-1 V)           35%        44.5        24

SF           432         3-1 (1-0 H)           65%        -9.5        29

Pick = Over 44.5, Buffalo + 10                                      53

 

San Diego at New Orleans                                                                           

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

SD           433         3-1 (2-0 V)           41%        54           29

NO         434         0-4 (0-2 H)           59%        -3.5        24

Pick = Under 54, San Diego +3.5                                 53

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#7
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:56:30 PM
I'll bite. What's the algorithm? What are you doing to come up with the totals?
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#8
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:56:55 AM
interesting... 
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#9
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:07:23 AM
How has this been working for you?
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#10
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:11:49 AM
Not to rain on your parade... I wish you the BOL but seems like all your finals picks are going with the consensus (except 1). The consensus isn't always right... Hope this works out for you though...
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#11
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:17:37 AM
Rams 18 ? so 6 FGs tomorrow ? lol
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#12
Posted: 10/4/2012 1:32:17 AM
Which lab were you BORED at & its ALGORITHMS...................none the less, I like some of your plays, gl this week....................
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#13
Posted: 10/4/2012 2:59:09 AM
KC Over
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#14
Posted: 10/4/2012 3:12:50 AM
Have you compared this system to the previous weeks?

The thing with any mathematical system is that it doesn't take into consideration the human factor and how a team who should win will actually lose
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Posted: 10/4/2012 3:20:47 AM
Good luck this weekend!

Base on my theory on Monday Night Schedule I played 4 games:  Chicago, Denver, San Diego & Houston (kinda scare since their value is really high).

Won't play San Diego if SF did not covered against Buffalo +9.5 or +10!
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#16
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:37:10 AM
To answer the questions.
I work at a IT security lab performing penetration testing and vulnerability scans.


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Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:02 AM

Cleveland at Baltimore                                 

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

CLE         16           11.5        20

BAL        23           44           29

Over      Wrong                  49

Cleveland            Right                     

New England at Buffalo                                

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

NE          52           -3.5        30

BUF        28           48           28

Over      Right                      58

Buffalo Wrong                 

San Diego at Kansas City                                              

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

SD           37           -1            30

KC           20           43           21

Over      Right                      51

San Diego            Right                     

                                               

                                               

Carolina at Atlanta                                          

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

CAR        28           7              23

ATL         30           48           30

Game    Push                      53

Over      Right      
quote
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#18
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:24 AM
Above and below are the systems pics for last weeks games.
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Posted: 10/4/2012 11:39:48 AM

San Francisco at N.Y. Jets                                             

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

SF           34           -3.5        28

NYJ         0              40.5        20

Over      Wrong                  48

SF           Right                     

Oakland at Denver                                          System Score

OAK       6              47           20

DEN       37           -6.5        31

Over      Wrong                  51

Dever    Right                     

New Orleans at Green Bay                                         

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

NO         27           7.5          24

GB          28           54           28

Under   Wrong                  52

NO         Right                     

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia                                          

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

NYG       17           46           25

PHI         19           -2            21

Over/Under       Push                     

NYG       Wrong                 

Miami at Arizona                                             

Teams   T                              System Score

MIA       21           38.5        20

ARI         24           4              23

MIA       Right                     

Over      Right                      

quote
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Posted: 10/4/2012 11:40:17 AM

Cincinnati at Jacksonville System Score

CIN         27           1                      30

JAC         10           45.5               19

Over      Wrong                 

CIN         Right                     

Washington at Tampa Bay                                           

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

WAS      24           1.5          29

TB           22           44.5        27

WAS      Right                     

Over      Right                     

Chicago at Dallas                                              

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

CHI         34           3              27

DAL        18           41           15

CHI         Right                     

Over      Right                     

Tennessee at Houston                                  System Score

Teams   T              Odds    

TEN        14           44.5        23

HOU      38           -13          38

Over      Right                      61

HOU      Right                     

Minnesota at Detroit                                     

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

MIN       20           3.5          26

DET        13           48           20

Under   Right                      46

MIN       Right                     

Seattle at St. Louis                                          

Teams   T              Odds     System Score

SEA        13           39.5        21

STL         19           2              17

SEA        Wrong                  38

Under   Right                      

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#21
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:44:23 AM
So after subtracting the pushs w/ vegas predicted by the machine, there are 28 total bets, and utilizing last weeks numbers, the system went 20 for 28, which I am absolutely ecstatic with, however hitting at such a high number (71%) makes me afraid it was a statistical anomaly.  I am keeping a heavy eye on it this weekend and just going to be $10 bucks on each one to see how it turns out.  I'll be making tweaks if necessary.

quote
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#22
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:48:28 AM
is this by chance that football forecaster that sells for $50??
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#23
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:53:50 AM
Here is how this works.

you need the following data.
Team 1: 
Offensive Points scored per game (OPPG)
Special Teams Points scored per game (STPPG)
Defensive Points scored per game (DPSPG)
Team 2:
Defensive Points allowed per game (DPAPG)
Offensive Points allowed per game (OPAPG)
Special Teams Points allowed per game (STPAPG)


You need those stats, averaged out over the weighed portions of the 2012 season, Home/Away Statistics, and Last 3 (to determine the trending of the team). 

Once all of these stats have been compiled, it works like this to determine score of ONE of the team, for one of the 3 weighted scenarios.

Team 1 Pts = (((OPPG + DPAPG)/2)+((DPSPG+OPAGP)/2)+((STPPG+STPAPG)/2))

If this is the "2012" statistics and we want to weight the over 2012 stats as comprising 70% of the score, then we multiply that number by .7, perform the same analysis with Home/Away and Last 3, weighting them appropriately, i.e. - Home/Away =20% and Last 3 = 10% to comprise 100% of the scoring.  

Add those three numbers up and there you have the points that should be scored by each team based on statistical prediction of each game based upon each teams ability to prevent points form being score and scoring points. 
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#24
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:54:47 AM
Haha no this is just some bored guy who like to play with numbers in his spare time, NO CHARGE HERE, screw those guys they suck, they are all leaches, if they were doing so well then they'd be gambling them selves, why would they sell it to other people!!!!
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#25
Posted: 10/4/2012 12:03:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wilsonmv2:

Arizona at St. Louis                                                                         

Teams   ROT        Record  Consensus          Odds     System

ARI         301         4-0 (1-0 V)           60%        39.5        24

STL         302         2-2 (2-0 H)           40%        1              18

Pick = Over 39.5 and Arizona -1                                  42 



funny... I just looked at my predictor and it says:
Arizona 23.6
St. Louis 18.4
TOTAL 42

imagine that...
quote
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