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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: MNF 10/8/12 JETS vs TEXANS By RazorSharps ***POY***
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#1
Posted: 10/2/2012 9:45:31 PM

NFL-X 21-19 (53%) ( +38 units )

NFL Season 18-19-1 ( 49%) ( +6.75 units )

NCAAF 33-23-1 (59%) ( +207.9 units )


There comes a time in every gamblers life where he puts his balls on the line and raises the stakes to take the house.  When that perfect hand comes around and you bet BIG and forget about money management.  Sports betting is one of the hardest things to win at consistently, as it takes time, patience and intellectual understanding of the game.  Situational probability is what I make my living off of when it comes to betting on most sports.  In the NFL it works well.  I have tailored my craft over the years to make it what it is today.  I dont really get too involved with explaining how  I get to a conclusion of my picks on here mathematically.  Because quite frankly it's boring.  Most games I add up all this and place my wager.  I can tell you that this wager  i am about to post on here had nothing to do with math and everything to do with Gambling know how and situational capping.  I have no other justification for this pick other than that I am so sure in my heart that it will hit that I am risking exactly 53.5% of my entire bankroll to place this wager.  I dont do numbers but I rather calculate what I am on in terms of units, and I know that most dont understand my unit size because most of you on here dont bet with my size bankroll.  I am sure of that as I have been around the bigs and Vegas to know that most of you on here are square bettors (but a select few).  I joined this site because what I love second to winning money is the challenge to pick a winner and to use my knowledge of sports betting to beat the books, all while helping some of you on here look at the game I am on from a different POV.

I made a post of this the other day and I placed my wager the next day thru my contacts that wager heavy.  This pick is my Rachmaninov, my Michelangelo's David, my Legacy on this site and in sports betting.  This will be the only play I make this week in the NFL.

I give you none other than:


MY POY


JETS +9  (250 units)


JETS ML +300  (200 units)


JETS -3 +450  (alternate line)  (50 units)


Wish me luck guys, as my balls are on the chopping block here.

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#2
Posted: 10/2/2012 9:48:02 PM
ML................  I respect your play & good luck! This is one game where I hope the Texans lose by 1 or 2 so I can hit my teaser & you hit you plays....................
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#3
Posted: 10/2/2012 9:53:44 PM
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#4
Posted: 10/2/2012 9:54:53 PM
The jets will lose  with Tebow as a starter by 14  
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#5
Posted: 10/2/2012 9:58:16 PM
Houston pass rush is  the real deal  . Tebow and the home crowd  will be destroyed.
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#6
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:02:45 PM

 "i am about to post on here had nothing to do with math and everything to do with Gambling know how and situational capping. I have no other justification for this pick other than that I am so sure in my heart that it will hit that I am risking exactly 53.5% of my entire bankroll to place this wager"

 

Your joking right. Its an avg play dont think you should go all in on this one your biggest problem is it is on monday night and the Texans will want to show the nation how good they are. jets are a bad football team I wish you luck because you will need it.

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#7
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:10:14 PM
Both of these teams play twice on Monday night this season...........the Jets play at home again vs Titans & the Texans play at New England on Dec. 10th...................both being road games for the Texans. 

The one good thing is the Texans may be looking ahead to playing the Packers & Ravens back to back at home in the next two weeks...............
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#8
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:11:19 PM
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#9
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:12:17 PM
DAM.....Play of the year.....and the "J-E-T-S-S-S" are the chosen team......BOL.....Jets might show a fight, but the Texans aren't just gonna back down.....



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#10
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:12:19 PM
Won't be touching this one, but good luck to you.

I understand where you're coming from with the contrarian angle. I have no problem with the side play, but betting 25% of your bankroll on the Jets ML and an alt line just seems a little reckless. I won't bore you with some diatribe about how good the Texans are or how bad the Jets are because I'm sure you've thought this through and plenty will come on here to point out random obvious garbage.


I will be pulling for you're ballsy wager.


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#11
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:16:11 PM
Wow.  I have a lot of respect for your capping abilities, but I think you are off on at least part of this bet.  I just don't see the Texans losing this one.  Sanchez has no prayer going up against the pass rush of JJ Watt and Company.  Meanwhile, the Texans will continue to pound away with the running game until they wear down the Jets defense.  I live in Houston and am a Texans fan so I am admittedly biased, but I don't see any look ahead from these guys.  This game is way too important for them right now given two difficult one's at home after this one.
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#12
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:16:20 PM
$100 per unit? 
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#13
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:23:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mely1976:

Houston pass rush is  the real deal  . Tebow and the home crowd  will be destroyed.

Are you the Oracle of Delphi? Please share more of your thought provoking insight.....

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              Antilles
#14
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:25:54 PM
Oh My
BOL
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#15
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:30:49 PM
I may not bet the bucks you do, but who cares about that, money is money.

I blindly bet every MNF home dog and historically done very well with this and for that reason I like your play on the Jets +9.  I also like taking a team ATS coming off a shut out loss.  Playing the ML and -3 is risky, but it's the NFL, anything can happen. I personally would play more on Jets +9.

GL 2 you
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#16
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:32:09 PM
All the hate must give you a warm fuzzy feeling inside

BOL Razor... ill be pulling for you
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#17
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:52:04 PM
BOL Razor.. Only thing I guess I would question is why are you willing to settle for a push if your ML and Alt line miss? Would think you would guarantee $ with your +9 being so sure
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#18
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:52:34 PM
Certainly rooting for you sir!


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#19
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:55:43 PM
rooting for you razor cuz i like you. hope you don't go on tilt.
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#20
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:07:08 PM
Razor I like your picks but you have picked JETS every single game this season and pre-season and you got your behind handed to you wxcept week 1 against Buffalo.

This pick may win for you but this bet is coming from your heart. You are a jets homer. I wish you good luck and I hope you cash all of that.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#21
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:09:46 PM
GL Razor , let's do this
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#22
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:21:20 PM
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#23
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:21:39 PM
Since you don't have a first half wager, and nothing comes easy...  I see the Jets being down 14 at half, pulling Suckchez, and Tebow leading the Jets to a 4th Q comeback of the ages!!!  Jets win on a late FG.  No dog in the fight for me.  Good luck Razor!! 
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#24
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:21:52 PM
Should be intersting. Good luck
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#25
Posted: 10/2/2012 11:24:24 PM

Thats all I can say... 


Texans gotta loose sometime... Why not on the 8th... Get it!
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