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[NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets |
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jlee092 |
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#51 Posted: 10/3/2012 8:31:18 PM
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FadeOnly |
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#52 Posted: 10/3/2012 8:39:40 PM  |
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si1ly |
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#53 Posted: 10/3/2012 8:41:35 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by jlee092:
so according to this sheet ARIZONA should be heavily favored tomorrow?
Well HEAVILY is a strong word. My numbers show that Arizona isn't getting quite enough credit at -1. I think oddsmakers are over-correcting this line. The Rams offense just isn't good enough not to be catching a full field goal against the Cardinals - at least in their current form. |
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DollarAndaDream |
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#54 Posted: 10/3/2012 10:04:43 PM
I was just wondering how much of a point differential btw what you project and a current line constitutes it as a 'pick'?
For example, according to your sheet, you have Arizona valued at -3. the line i'm seeing at my book is currently Ari -1.5. Am I right in guessing that according to your stats, Ari would just be a lean since it seems to be pretty close to your projections? How much of a point-differential in general makes it a good value in your opinion?
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jeff356us |
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#55 Posted: 10/3/2012 10:23:02 PM  |
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si1ly |
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#56 Posted: 10/3/2012 10:37:07 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by DollarAndaDream:
thanks for this, S1lly!
I was just wondering how much of a point differential btw what you project and a current line constitutes it as a 'pick'?
For example, according to your sheet, you have Arizona valued at -3. the line i'm seeing at my book is currently Ari -1.5. Am I right in guessing that according to your stats, Ari would just be a lean since it seems to be pretty close to your projections? How much of a point-differential in general makes it a good value in your opinion?
NFL lines are extremely tight. Any sort of value is a good thing but I really start to pay attention when the value crosses a key number such as 0, 3, 4, 7, 10 |
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tonydan |
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#57 Posted: 10/4/2012 12:28:29 AM |
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coachwbb |
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#58 Posted: 10/4/2012 1:01:51 AM  |
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Chloeq |
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#59 Posted: 10/4/2012 1:39:13 AM Thank you for all your hard work! |
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prophet777 |
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#60 Posted: 10/4/2012 1:46:37 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
NFL lines are extremely tight. Any sort of value is a good thing but I really start to pay attention when the value crosses a key number such as 0, 3, 4, 7, 10
So I'm guessing you're taking a long look at the 49ers and the Ravens? |
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Lakerboy |
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#61 Posted: 10/4/2012 2:07:31 AM
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statsman49 |
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#62 Posted: 10/4/2012 3:08:21 AM
new to covers posting but have been following for a year or so..
I am working on something comparable with purely statistics to give ratings and the power ratings being contingent on the opposition also..
I was just wondering how you factor home field advantage into the model? I am currently working on past 5-10 years data to attempt to have a home field advantage for each team but also a home field 'disadvantage' for each team, based on how well teams travel..
All the best this weekend! |
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statsman49 |
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#63 Posted: 10/4/2012 3:09:52 AM |
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r3coil |
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#64 Posted: 10/4/2012 3:11:52 AM |
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si1ly |
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#65 Posted: 10/4/2012 9:50:40 AM
Indy +8 Denver +7 / ML Baltimore -6 Cleveland +10 (-120) Philadelphia +3.5 / ML Seattle +3 / ML
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si1ly |
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#66 Posted: 10/4/2012 9:52:47 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by prophet777:
So I'm guessing you're taking a long look at the 49ers and the Ravens?
49ers are in a look ahead spot.. might be better to pass on this double digit spread despite the line value in my model. |
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si1ly |
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#67 Posted: 10/4/2012 9:55:12 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:
It is generally accepted that 3 to 3.5 points is standard home field advantage from a neutral site. I however, lump home field and intangibles into one factor. For example, a home divisional game on prime time might see a 4 point adjustment. Or if the opposing teams star wide receiver is out, I may adjust it 5 or 6 points. Home field is not a static advantage. It depends on the opponent, on the record of the home team, the time the game is played, etc... I manually adjust this number in each game each week as I see fit. There's no scientific way to do this, but experience has given me a good feel for what this adjustment should be.
answer to the question: how do I quantify home field advantage? |
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si1ly |
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#68 Posted: 10/4/2012 9:59:48 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by r3coil:
Si1ly, can you recommend any books (i.e. printed books, the kind you get on Amazon) on sports betting? I know they wont have the models in them or make anyone rich but I would like to learn more about the theory behind everything.
Read some Bill James literature. |
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Bricknah |
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#69 Posted: 10/4/2012 10:01:20 AM |
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si1ly |
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#70 Posted: 10/4/2012 10:04:49 AM |
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si1ly |
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#71 Posted: 10/4/2012 10:05:35 AM |
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si1ly |
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#72 Posted: 10/4/2012 10:11:09 AM |
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si1ly |
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#73 Posted: 10/4/2012 10:19:36 AM
If the removal of the hyperlinks is intentional, I don't see what the problem is, I've been posting breakdown sheets in the MLB mains for several months with no issue. |
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SteamCave |
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#74 Posted: 10/4/2012 10:28:43 AM |
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Crashdavis565 |
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#75 Posted: 10/4/2012 10:40:31 AM |
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