WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

Forum: NFL Betting Page 3 of 4  1 2 3 4  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
jlee092 PM jlee092
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Posted: 10/3/2012 8:31:18 PM
so according to this sheet ARIZONA should be heavily favored tomorrow?
FadeOnly PM FadeOnly
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Posted: 10/3/2012 8:39:40 PM
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/3/2012 8:41:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jlee092:

so according to this sheet ARIZONA should be heavily favored tomorrow?

Well HEAVILY is a strong word.  My numbers show that Arizona isn't getting quite enough credit at -1.  I think oddsmakers are over-correcting this line.  The Rams offense just isn't good enough not to be catching a full field goal against the Cardinals - at least in their current form.
DollarAndaDream PM DollarAndaDream
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Posted: 10/3/2012 10:04:43 PM
thanks for this, S1lly!
I was just wondering how much of a point differential btw what you project and a current line constitutes it as a 'pick'?  
For example, according to your sheet, you have Arizona valued at -3.  the line i'm seeing at my book is currently Ari -1.5.  Am I right in guessing that according to your stats, Ari would just be a lean since it seems to be pretty close to your projections?  How much of a point-differential in general makes it a good value in your opinion?

jeff356us PM jeff356us
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Posted: 10/3/2012 10:23:02 PM
Awesome work one of the best threads i have seen ever on covers keep up the great work. BOL this weekend
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/3/2012 10:37:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DollarAndaDream:

thanks for this, S1lly!
I was just wondering how much of a point differential btw what you project and a current line constitutes it as a 'pick'?  
For example, according to your sheet, you have Arizona valued at -3.  the line i'm seeing at my book is currently Ari -1.5.  Am I right in guessing that according to your stats, Ari would just be a lean since it seems to be pretty close to your projections?  How much of a point-differential in general makes it a good value in your opinion?


NFL lines are extremely tight.  Any sort of value is a good thing but I really start to pay attention when the value crosses a key number such as 0, 3, 4, 7, 10
tonydan PM tonydan
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Posted: 10/4/2012 12:28:29 AM
this is some excellent stuff si1ly. thanks for doing all this work and posting it here for everyone to use. GL on the rest of the NFL season.
coachwbb PM coachwbb
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Posted: 10/4/2012 1:01:51 AM
Thanks for all the work Si1ly.  BOL!
Chloeq PM Chloeq
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Posted: 10/4/2012 1:39:13 AM

Thank you for all your hard work!

prophet777 PM prophet777
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Posted: 10/4/2012 1:46:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


NFL lines are extremely tight.  Any sort of value is a good thing but I really start to pay attention when the value crosses a key number such as 0, 3, 4, 7, 10

So I'm guessing you're taking a long look at the 49ers and the Ravens?
Lakerboy PM Lakerboy
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Posted: 10/4/2012 2:07:31 AM
as usual silly, and
statsman49 PM statsman49
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Posted: 10/4/2012 3:08:21 AM
Great sheets si1ly!
new to covers posting but have been following for a year or so..
I am working on something comparable with purely statistics to give ratings and the power ratings being contingent on the opposition also..
I was just wondering how you factor home field advantage into the model? I am currently working on past 5-10 years data to attempt to have a home field advantage for each team but also a home field 'disadvantage' for each team, based on how well teams travel..
All the best this weekend!
statsman49 PM statsman49
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Posted: 10/4/2012 3:09:52 AM
Sorry, away 'disadvantage' ***
r3coil PM r3coil
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Posted: 10/4/2012 3:11:52 AM
Si1ly, can you recommend any books (i.e. printed books, the kind you get on Amazon) on sports betting? I know they wont have the models in them or make anyone rich but I would like to learn more about the theory behind everything. 
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 9:50:40 AM
Few games I'm leaning on:

Indy +8
Denver +7 / ML
Baltimore -6
Cleveland +10 (-120)
Philadelphia +3.5 / ML
Seattle +3 / ML

si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 9:52:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by prophet777:


So I'm guessing you're taking a long look at the 49ers and the Ravens?

49ers are in a look ahead spot.. might be better to pass on this double digit spread despite the line value in my model.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 9:55:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


It is generally accepted that 3 to 3.5 points is standard home field advantage from a neutral site.  I however, lump home field and intangibles into one factor.  For example, a home divisional game on prime time might see a 4 point adjustment.  Or if the opposing teams star wide receiver is out, I may adjust it 5 or 6 points.  Home field is not a static advantage.  It depends on the opponent, on the record of the home team, the time the game is played, etc... I manually adjust this number in each game each week as I see fit.  There's no scientific way to do this, but experience has given me a good feel for what this adjustment should be.

answer to the question: how do I quantify home field advantage?
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 9:59:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by r3coil:

Si1ly, can you recommend any books (i.e. printed books, the kind you get on Amazon) on sports betting? I know they wont have the models in them or make anyone rich but I would like to learn more about the theory behind everything. 

Read some Bill James literature.
Bricknah PM Bricknah
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:01:20 AM
I don't see any link?  It just says WEEK 5?
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:04:49 AM
https://docs.google.com/folder/d/0B8gd-be68XCvWVdnX2Etd1FtRjA/edit
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:05:35 AM
Looks like Covers deleted the link.  Why?
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:11:09 AM
It appears that Covers has removed the hyperlink button from the post a reply widget.  They've also deleted all hyperlinks in all archived posts.
si1ly PM si1ly
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:19:36 AM
This issue appears to only be affecting the mains.  I've brought it to their attention in the help forum.. hopefully the problem is resolved soon.  

If the removal of the hyperlinks is intentional, I don't see what the problem is, I've been posting breakdown sheets in the MLB mains for several months with no issue.
SteamCave PM SteamCave
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:28:43 AM
Crashdavis565 PM Crashdavis565
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Posted: 10/4/2012 10:40:31 AM
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