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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 10/2/2012 7:05:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by remkg:

Thanks for all your time and effort this nice breakdown of teams.

I was looking at the Rams/Cards game on TNF

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8gd-be68XCvZFB2aEpxMkhWRDA/edit

If you look at team stats > rushing column > arizona's run offense it's ranked #5 but its #29th in the league

Thanks for pointing that out.  I was worried there might be a few lingering errors in the MASTER sheet.  

The ranking for offensive rushing stats was recalling the ranking from a different data set.  I have corrected the error and I will rerun the sheets either later tonight or tomorrow as to avoid further confusion.  

As a note to everyone:  If anything else stands out as an obvious error, please don't hesitate to call it to my attention.  I made a huge push the last few weeks to get these sheets finished and I haven't had a lot of time to self-edit.
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#27
Posted: 10/2/2012 7:39:07 PM
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#28
Posted: 10/2/2012 7:44:05 PM
CURRENT POWER RANKINGS

#01 Baltimore Ravens
#02 Houston Texans
#03 San Francisco 49ers
#04 Atlanta Falcons
#05 Arizona Cardinals
#06 Denver Broncos
#07 Green Bay Packers
#08 New England Patriots
#09 Minnesota Vikings
#10 Philadelphia Eagles
#11 Chicago Bears
#11 Seattle Seahawks
#13 Miami Dolphins
#14 St. Louis Rams
#15 New York Giants
#16 San Diego Chargers
#16 Washington Redskins
#18 Cincinnati Bengals
#19 Detroit Lions
#20 Dallas Cowboys
#21 Carolina Panthers
#22 Jacksonville Jaguars
#22 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
#24 Cleveland Browns
#25 Pittsburgh Steelers
#26 Buffalo Bills
#27 New York Jets
#28 Indianapolis Colts
#29 Tennessee Titans
#30 Kansas City Chiefs
#31 New Orleans Saints
#32 Oakland Raiders

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#29
Posted: 10/2/2012 7:53:22 PM

This is awesome silly, I look forward to following it to see how it holds up.  I love the Rams on Thursday however, doesn't jive with the sheet but after that OT game with Miami and overachieving in my opinion on the road on a VERY short week should bring them back down to earth against a decent and well coached St L team.

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#30
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:01:56 PM
Yikes, Steelers behind the browns.

Jus took 'em -3 against Philly.
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#31
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:12:33 PM
you remind me of Bodio. 
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#32
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:28:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TurnstoneMoney:

Yikes, Steelers behind the browns.

Jus took 'em -3 against Philly.

I am very low on the Steelers this year.  Their offensive line is garbage, they have no run game to speak of and they can't stop the run.  They're migrating to a vertical offense, but Philly's defensive strength is their secondary.  I see a lot of match-up problems for the Steelers.. if they weren't coming off a bye I would have lined the game closer to 'PK.
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#33
Posted: 10/2/2012 10:53:39 PM
good stuff..
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#34
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:13:32 AM
Thursday night games tend to favor the under and I don't see many reasons why that should be different this week.  Both the Rams and Cardinals are pushing top 10 defensively and both are easily in the bottom 10 offensively.  One of the few things that is currently keeping me off the under is their play selection.  Both teams struggle maintaining possession and they're both pass heavy offenses.  A slow moving clock can easily be the death of an under in a sub 40 total game like this.  Looks to me like oddsmakers set a very tough total to take the under.
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#35
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:21:54 AM
Amazing stats Silly! Thank you for your generosity and hard work as always..

I would assume these projected numbers take into account home field advantages? How do you quantify each teams home/ away into your numbers?
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#36
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:30:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by whisperman:

Amazing stats Silly! Thank you for your generosity and hard work as always..

I would assume these projected numbers take into account home field advantages? How do you quantify each teams home/ away into your numbers?

It is generally accepted that 3 to 3.5 points is standard home field advantage from a neutral site.  I however, lump home field and intangibles into one factor.  For example, a home divisional game on prime time might see a 4 point adjustment.  Or if the opposing teams star wide receiver is out, I may adjust it 5 or 6 points.  Home field is not a static advantage.  It depends on the opponent, on the record of the home team, the time the game is played, etc... I manually adjust this number in each game each week as I see fit.  There's no scientific way to do this, but experience has given me a good feel for what this adjustment should be.
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#37
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:39:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Working out well so far... 14-2 on the season +17.14 units.


Hahaha.. I've been typing baseball abbreviations into my NFL database for two weeks.  Fixed the mistake.   

yeah, i noticed you had a great start
i just figured you didn't use sheets so far as a result of the lack of data


i have to say... i'm already looking forward to the 2013 mlb season
while i have no doubt you will be in the green at the end of football season, i am sure that the game of baseball fits your mathematical approach the best
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#38
Posted: 10/3/2012 10:55:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cpsn:


yeah, i noticed you had a great start
i just figured you didn't use sheets so far as a result of the lack of data


i have to say... i'm already looking forward to the 2013 mlb season
while i have no doubt you will be in the green at the end of football season, i am sure that the game of baseball fits your mathematical approach the best

It most certainly does.  I've been a 55%-er in the NFL for years.  The start I'm having this year is surprising even to me.  I developed the RPI model during last season and finished it this summer.  To start this season, I used last years full season data and manually adjusted it according to roster and coaching changes this year.  As this year built up data, I began to weigh it more and more into my analysis.  Now that we're at week 5, I'm using only current season data.  The model has some wild results in the early weeks as extreme data points regress to the mean.  I sometimes have to adjust the output by as much as 7 points to account for this.  The NFL is a constant battle against small and narrow data sets.  120 minutes of football on each side of the ball is nothing to draw concrete conclusions from.  In baseball, this isn't a problem.  I can derive probable win percentages very precisely because the data is so broad and the objective is best met with a much higher volume of wagers (compared to the NFL).  I had something like 210 full unit wagers in the MLB this season.  So far I only have 16 in the NFL and we're a quarter through already.  I was at 50 bets by now in the MLB.  Long story short though, I think my success this year can be attributed to the use of my Relative Performance Index coupled with a baseball-like mentality to exclusively bet on teams with 'line value'.
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#39
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:05:12 AM
Awesome as always.
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#40
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:08:21 AM
I'm really excited about the coming NBA season.  I've been a 56%er in the NBA for years but last year was my first losing season.  I spent A LOT of time digging through my historical data trying to narrow in on some element rather than to base my analysis on the four factors as I had in the past.  I made a startling discovery.  It turns out that offensive rebounding rate, turnover rate and free throw rate have almost no correlation to winning percentage or margin of victory.  As it turns out, it doesn't matter how well a team rebounds, controls the ball or gets to the free throw line.  The only thing that matters - and what correlates with extreme precision to margin of victory and winning percentage is effective field goal percentage (eFG%).  Duh - right?  How well a team shoots and how well a team defends the shot obviously is the most important thing.  Well it's pretty much the only thing.  Sure winning the possession battle (by getting more rebounds and having fewer turnovers) might give a team more shot opportunities in a game and thus more opportunities to score.  But even small differentials in eFG% can offset several shot attempts in a game.  Point is, I've rewritten my models to simply narrow in on identifying which team will have the better night shooting.  I saw encouraging results back checking with games over the last few seasons.  Can't wait to see how it plays out in a full season this year.
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#41
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:08:57 AM
Im a little sad my Mac won't upload your sheets 
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#42
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:10:21 AM
I shouldn't say last year was my first losing season in the NBA... I'm sure I lost money my first few years of gambling - but it was definitely my first losing season in several years.  I'll get it back this year though.  And some.  
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#43
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:15:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Porter77:

Im a little sad my Mac won't upload your sheets 

Really?  My wife's iPad can view them just fine through the Google Drive link.
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#44
Posted: 10/3/2012 11:31:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


Really?  My wife's iPad can view them just fine through the Google Drive link.

Thanks got it working, Sheets look great 

GL this week 
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#45
Posted: 10/3/2012 2:07:13 PM
Silly,

Your stuff is incredible, keep up the great work, been following you for some time now and you are some capper.

Make that cash!

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#46
Posted: 10/3/2012 7:58:50 PM
I was just sent a PM and I think it would be relevant to share my answer in this thread.  For those of you that are not familiar with my MLB sheets, the projected spread, moneyline and total are the output of a mathematical model that I developed.  I also make manual adjustments to the output based on injury news, home field advantage, weather conditions etc...
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#47
Posted: 10/3/2012 8:09:21 PM
this is great work, i will be checking in with your sheets/picks for NFL or NBA action this season, good luck allstar.
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#48
Posted: 10/3/2012 8:12:29 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'm really excited about the coming NBA season.

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#49
Posted: 10/3/2012 8:12:46 PM
Si1lly,

Sheets look great and can see some games I like as stated Eagles and as my DB's favor a lot more SOS than usual.  Hence the play on Tennessee.  Good luck on all your plays!  A must read each week..
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#50
Posted: 10/3/2012 8:15:03 PM
Thanks for sharing your hard work, silly. One of the best threads on this site.

(Handshake)
Posted using a mobile device.
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