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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: WEEK 5 - NFL Breakdown Sheets
si1ly send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:22:08 PM


WEEK 5







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#2
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:25:17 PM
Finished coding my NFL databases to produce breakdown sheets.  Thursday Night game uploaded.  Sunday's games to follow.


I'm sure some of you will have questions about what these stats measure.  I'll do my best to offer explanations in this thread as the week progresses.
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#3
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:31:49 PM
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#4
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:33:43 PM
that's fancy!
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#5
Posted: 10/2/2012 2:40:28 PM
1:00 EST games added.
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#6
Posted: 10/2/2012 3:07:38 PM
Rest of the games uploaded.
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#7
Posted: 10/2/2012 4:40:18 PM
Awesome!!! Looks like an attempted sabremetric analysis of the NFL, I'm excited to see how this experiment pans out.  Does your system take into account any key injuries?
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#8
Posted: 10/2/2012 4:42:55 PM
interested to see how this works out





San Diego Padres?
I'm pretty sure they will get run off the field

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#9
Posted: 10/2/2012 4:59:56 PM
Could you explain how to read it?

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#10
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:05:02 PM


WEEK 5 (mirror link 1)





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#11
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:09:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by VictorHDH:

Could you explain how to read it?


I'll have many more updates throughout the week as I get asked more questions, but here's a start for now.

Most of what you see on the sheets is standard advanced data for NFL teams.  Obviously the fundamentals are there such such as attempts, yards, points, record etc... as well as the important efficiency measures (yards per point - play - rushing attempt - passing attempt).

What I'm really proud of though is the Relative Performance Index at the top.  The issue that stats guys run into when analyzing the NFL is twofold - 1) the sample size is small and 2) the level of competition is unequal from team to team.  I developed the RPI index to account for this.  Basically 0.0 would be the expected production based on the combined average of that teams competition.

For example, New England's offense scores 28 points per game, but the four opponents they've played average giving up 31, 27, 33, 28.  (31+27+33+28) / 4 = 29.75.  Thus their offensive points per game rating is -1.75.  They're scoring 1.75 points per game less than what would be expected looking at their competition.  This is important since 28 points might seem like a lot and rank highly in the NFL, but -1.75 is below expectations and probably ranks in the bottom third.

In this way, the RPI normalizes the playing field so every team can be compared relative to the competition they've played.  It solves everything.
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#12
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:16:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by si1ly:


I'll have many more updates throughout the week as I get asked more questions, but here's a start for now.

Most of what you see on the sheets is standard advanced data for NFL teams.  Obviously the fundamentals are there such such as attempts, yards, points, record etc... as well as the important efficiency measures (yards per point - play - rushing attempt - passing attempt).

What I'm really proud of though is the Relative Performance Index at the top.  The issue that stats guys run into when analyzing the NFL is twofold - 1) the sample size is small and 2) the level of competition is unequal from team to team.  I developed the RPI index to account for this.  Basically 0.0 would be the expected production based on the combined average of that teams competition.

For example, New England's offense scores 28 points per game, but the four opponents they've played average giving up 31, 27, 33, 28.  (31+27+33+28) / 4 = 29.75.  Thus their offensive points per game rating is -1.75.  They're scoring 1.75 points per game less than what would be expected looking at their competition.  This is important since 28 points might seem like a lot and rank highly in the NFL, but -1.75 is below expectations and probably ranks in the bottom third.

In this way, the RPI normalizes the playing field so every team can be compared relative to the competition they've played.  It solves everything.

Was about to ask the same thing. 

This is absolutely BRILLIANT information; this could really become an essential tool for all to use at their own discretion of course.

Well done and thank you very much. 

Based on the availability of this info, will you be able to post your leans/picks before Sunday?
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#13
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:19:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ReadBtWtheLines:


Was about to ask the same thing. 

This is absolutely BRILLIANT information; this could really become an essential tool for all to use at their own discretion of course.

Well done and thank you very much. 

Based on the availability of this info, will you be able to post your leans/picks before Sunday?

I usually place my wagers on the late side (between 1-6 hours before kickoff).  But I'll definitely drop my leans in this thread as the week goes on.  I'll use it to post my thoughts on the weeks games, angles I'm looking at and answer questions from other covers members - much like how I conducted my breakdown sheets threads in the MLB.  If I lock in anything early, I'll indicate by centering my post with the play in bold underneath the phrase "Locked in".
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#14
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:22:39 PM
Much appreciated my man! 

Side bar: I'd love to see you run a survivor pick thread or offer some thoughts as to who your top few choices might be for each week. 

Thanks again and the best of luck to you. 
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#15
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:22:44 PM
Yep!..Si1ly is fast becoming relevant...!

Great job, really look forward to reading your threads throughout the season.peace handshake
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#16
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:24:12 PM
awsome work, si1ly - Baltimore is looking like a solid lean from the sheets for me.  I'd be very interested to see how these sheets look compared with the first four weeks of results.  May be able to dig out some trends from your own stats sheets - I really appreciate all the info you provide to this site in all sports 
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#17
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:28:19 PM
NFL single season stats are really only just beginning to become relevant at week 4.  These sheets will become much more accurate and useful by week 8 and onward.  They become more precise with time.  That said, make sure you are cautious using these sheets for the next few weeks.  There will be a lot of regression in the coming weeks.  Extreme data points will condense.
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#18
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:45:36 PM

Thanks Si1ly. 

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#19
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:49:27 PM
Enjoyed these all throughout the MLB season and will continue to enjoy them through the NFL season
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#20
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:13:53 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Season] Awesome!!! Looks like an attempted sabremetric analysis of the NFL, I'm excited to see how this experiment pans out.  Does your system take into account any key injuries? [/Quote]

No.  That's impossible to quantify.  I am left with no other option than to manually adjust the projected lines as injury updates are announced throughout the week.

This brings me to an important point.  The projected lines that are on the sheets when I first publish them, might not be the same by the end of the week.  I manually adjust the line as I gather information on injuries, game plans, weather etc..  I will try and make a note in this thread if and when I make a change to a sheet.
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#21
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:33:05 PM
Just wanted to say thanks for all the hardwork on the sheets...

Sometimes when i'm baked i forget my cell phone at the house..

But I never made a baseball bet without looking at a teams real value through your sheets..

In si1ly we trust..Bol on the season
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#22
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:45:43 PM
Awesome!
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#23
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:47:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Junior316:

Enjoyed these all throughout the MLB season and will continue to enjoy them through the NFL season

I also have NBA breakdown sheets too  
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#24
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:52:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cpsn:

interested to see how this works out






San Diego Padres?
I'm pretty sure they will get run off the field


Working out well so far... 14-2 on the season +17.14 units.


Hahaha.. I've been typing baseball abbreviations into my NFL database for two weeks.  Fixed the mistake.   
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#25
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:53:10 PM
Thanks for all your time and effort this nice breakdown of teams.

I was looking at the Rams/Cards game on TNF

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8gd-be68XCvZFB2aEpxMkhWRDA/edit

If you look at team stats > rushing column > arizona's run offense it's ranked #5 but its #29th in the league
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