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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Week 5 NFL Plays
JFen31
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#1
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:18:54 PM
Overall: 18-14 (+5.15 units)
Week 4: 10-3 (+5.70 units)



Great Week 4. Situational plays working much better this season.

Current Week 5 Card

Pittsburgh -3 -120 (1 unit)
Tennessee +5.5 (1 unit)
San Fran -2.5/St. Louis +8 -120 (1 unit)


Leans:
Washington +3, Jacksonville +5.5





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#2
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:50:53 PM
Hey JFen just wondering what your reasoning is for the Steelers. If I had to take a shot, I'd say it's because Philly is coming off a close emotional win against a divisional rival on prime time, then having to travel on the road to play a physical Steelers team off a bye week at 1:00 on Sunday. You have improved my capping by making me much more aware of how important situational angles are. BIG key when it comes to lines and perception.
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#3
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:01:55 PM
Cause the iggles are garbage and won 3 games by 4 pts
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#4
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:08:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cambyspree99:

Cause the iggles are garbage and won 3 games by 4 pts


How does that saying go, oh yeah, it doesn't matter whether you win by 1 or 100. A win is a win, period. Look, the game wasn't even close. Philly completely dominated. Had they been able to score TD's in the red zone, the game wouldn't even have been close. Philly's defense is a top 5 unit in the league without a doubt, and other than maybe 2 drives from the Giants they couldn't move the ball with any consistency or efficiency. I love how you can say the Eagles are garbage when they basically tried handing that game to the Giants and they still couldn't win. I guess that makes the Giants the scum, stuck to the bottom of the can garbage?
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#5
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:08:44 PM
Philly to Pitt ...not much travel...
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MGD
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#6
Posted: 10/2/2012 1:27:59 PM
JFen, you know I am a big fan of yours, but one of my favorite plays this year is betting on any team playing against the Titans brother...  Any info you don't mind sharing on this play?  You might save me some dough cause I was going to make a decent sized play on Minni...  I love the two team teaser BTW...  THX man!!
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Jmt908
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#7
Posted: 10/2/2012 2:54:22 PM
That looks like a great teaser. Unfortunately, I can only do six pointers.
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mariner24
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#8
Posted: 10/2/2012 5:40:59 PM
jfen whats your thoughts on a survivor pool pick this week, already used chi, dal, ari, sf
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#9
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:34:48 PM
like your plays, especially tenn, stay away from that redskins lean tho, falcons r just playing good, line should go up tho
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#10
Posted: 10/2/2012 6:41:01 PM
SF  tease   
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#11
Posted: 10/2/2012 7:53:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spartacus10:



How does that saying go, oh yeah, it doesn't matter whether you win by 1 or 100. A win is a win, period. Look, the game wasn't even close. Philly completely dominated. Had they been able to score TD's in the red zone, the game wouldn't even have been close. Philly's defense is a top 5 unit in the league without a doubt, and other than maybe 2 drives from the Giants they couldn't move the ball with any consistency or efficiency. I love how you can say the Eagles are garbage when they basically tried handing that game to the Giants and they still couldn't win. I guess that makes the Giants the scum, stuck to the bottom of the can garbage?
You must mean the Super bowl champion scum, stuck to the bottom of the garbage?
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JFen31
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#12
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:00:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Spartacus10:

Hey JFen just wondering what your reasoning is for the Steelers. If I had to take a shot, I'd say it's because Philly is coming off a close emotional win against a divisional rival on prime time, then having to travel on the road to play a physical Steelers team off a bye week at 1:00 on Sunday. You have improved my capping by making me much more aware of how important situational angles are. BIG key when it comes to lines and perception.


Pretty much. Key points are Steelers coming off the bye and returning several important cogs coupled with the Eagles scoring a major win over a divisional rival late Sunday night. Also think it's a bad schematic matchup for the Birds against a team that blitzes frequently and tackles well in space.


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JFen31
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#13
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:07:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MGD:

JFen, you know I am a big fan of yours, but one of my favorite plays this year is betting on any team playing against the Titans brother...  Any info you don't mind sharing on this play?  You might save me some dough cause I was going to make a decent sized play on Minni...  I love the two team teaser BTW...  THX man!!


Well....according to most "rankings," which I think are irrelevant, the Titans are a bottom-five team. That might be true, but they're catching the Vikings in a horrific spot off of not one, but two consecutive underdog victories. The win over Detroit was Minny's first against a divisional opponent since Week 3 of 2010, and which, combined with a win over the NFL's "best" team two weeks ago, has created as glaring a letdown opportunity as you will find all season.

IMO, the biggest key to success in betting the NFL is staying a step ahead of the market. Who was talking about the Vikings heading into Weeks 2 and 3? No one. Now, at 3-1, ESPN has suddenly taken notice. What happens when ESPN starts pimping a team? The public follows right along. It's a constant battle to keep ahead of the curve.




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JFen31
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#14
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:08:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mariner24:

jfen whats your thoughts on a survivor pool pick this week, already used chi, dal, ari, sf


Pittsburgh or New England. Probably the latter.
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JFen31
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#15
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:10:04 AM
Chicago @ Jacksonville +6 (1 unit)
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MGD
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#16
Posted: 10/3/2012 12:31:08 AM
good input, makes sense, THX and GL JFen!!
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#17
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:47:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mariner24:

jfen whats your thoughts on a survivor pool pick this week, already used chi, dal, ari, sf

GMEN
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#18
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:48:05 PM
gl JFen
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#19
Posted: 10/3/2012 9:53:02 PM
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JFen31
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#20
Posted: 10/5/2012 12:56:21 AM
I just cannot get away from the value on the Niners at under a field goal...

San Fran -2.5/Washington +10 -130 (1 unit)
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#21
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:01:14 AM
pitt is a winner

tenn is a winner

teaser is a winner
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#22
Posted: 10/5/2012 1:13:49 AM
Hey JFen what do you think about this 4 team teaser?

GB -1 @ Ind
Cle @ NYG -2 1/2 
Bal -PK @ KC
Hou -2 @ NYJ
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JFen31
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#23
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:27:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FireFight4U:

Hey JFen what do you think about this 4 team teaser?

GB -1 @ Ind
Cle @ NYG -2 1/2 
Bal -PK @ KC
Hou -2 @ NYJ


I can't advocate a 4-team teaser. It's very, very difficult to hit those. Of the four, I'd be most concerned with Baltimore.
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#24
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:31:21 AM
BOL 
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#25
Posted: 10/7/2012 11:33:16 AM
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