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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Before Every1 Starts Crowning the Texans as an Easy Bet next MNF
LeagueCapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 10/1/2012 12:58:27 PM

I just had to bring this up with every1 bashing going against the Texans next monday saying there's no angle or logical way you can bet on the Jets here. There's no angle? There is without a doubt a HUGE angle! Jets just got shutout at home with one of the most embarassing losses of the past few years. Teams play better than they are weeks following these types of losses and if you want proof:

Teams are 20-9 ATS the week after being shutout at home over the past 15 years. Texans have been romping on every1 all year and now have to cover 9 points on the road on MNF against a horrible but angry Jets team?

Let's not forget the Texans have the Packers and the Ravens coming up the next 2 weeks, talk about look-ahead alert. Saying the Texans will win is 1 thing, but saying they will cover 9 on MNF on the road against a team they just saw get blown out when they have the Packers and Ravens on deck is another.

I don't know about you, but my money will be on a Jets cover.

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#2
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:00:12 PM
lets not forget the jets have not even a shred of an offensive or defensive weapons and sanchez will make multiple mistakes.

please with the jets bs
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#3
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:03:59 PM
with u
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#4
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:08:25 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by cambyspree99:

lets not forget the jets have not even a shred of an offensive or defensive weapons and sanchez will make multiple mistakes.

please with the jets bs

I don't bet based on matchups. People that bet on matchups and who the better team is that week will be a lifetime 50% capper at best guaranteed. Situational capping is the only way to profit in the NFL longterm. Jets are a solid play next MNF, regardless of how bad they are they've looked, they are in a tremendous spot and getting 9 at home. You, just like every1 else, will look at week 4 and make their judgement based on the final score. Two things you shouldn't forget is that prior to last week 4, the line for this game was Texans -1. And when the Jets were down 17-0, they were marching down the field close to getting a touchdown which would have made it 17-7 and still in reach before Holmes went down on an injury and gave up a return TD which spiraled the game out of control. Jets aren't a good team, but they aren't AS BAD as they looked last week.

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#5
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:11:24 PM
BINGO YAHTZEE JACKPOT

Couldn't agree anymore with you. Jets +9 is the right side
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#6
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:11:58 PM
But honestly waiting till the Jets line goes up to 10 is probably the best move since everyone will be hammering the texans
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#7
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:12:57 PM
You are really dumb if u take the jets. Just flush your money down the toilet!
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#8
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:17:26 PM
lets talk about this monday. take one game at a time. who do you pick today? if you know jets cover keep it with urself, do not try to outsmart us. we are not idiot.
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#9
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:29:59 PM
Tease the Texans in a 10 point teaser....................
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#10
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:34:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by scsiegel89:

But honestly waiting till the Jets line goes up to 10 is probably the best move since everyone will be hammering the texans


Bettors will be looking to double up their profits or chase their losses with the sure-fire, no-doubt-about-it, 1 million star lock of their life winner the Texans minus whatever against the Jets. 


The media will be spoon feeding the hype and the lemmings will be eating it up!
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#11
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:38:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

Tease the Texans in a 10 point teaser....................



The books put this at 9 with the last leg of the week just for that reason. 


League capper, my style is exactly like you.  Situations are the way to go.  Are you considering 9 with the added juice?  I don't see +9 at -110 anywhere.
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#12
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:39:04 PM
You guys should realize that if Vegas wanted to clean house & thought the Jets could win SU, the line would be Texans -6...............the line will be -9 by game time because they know they will get a ton of cash on the Texans, & by the way, the line opened Texans -4.5 & was quickly bet up to -7.5...............I think the sharps will try to middle this game.

The Texans have the Packers & Ravens back to back at home coming up so they may take it easy on the Jets. I like the Texans 10 point teaser..............
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#13
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:41:59 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:




The books put this at 9 with the last leg of the week just for that reason. 


League capper, my style is exactly like you.  Situations are the way to go.  Are you considering 9 with the added juice?  I don't see +9 at -110 anywhere.


Public dont bet many 10 point teasers. They bet a lot of 6 point teasers. 
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#14
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:44:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:




The books put this at 9 with the last leg of the week just for that reason. 


League capper, my style is exactly like you.  Situations are the way to go.  Are you considering 9 with the added juice?  I don't see +9 at -110 anywhere.


My mistake, my book is 5dimes and the default spread they have is +9, didn't notice the -130. I would go with +7.5 (-110).
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#15
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:45:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

You guys should realize that if Vegas wanted to clean house & thought the Jets could win SU, the line would be Texans -6...............the line will be -9 by game time because they know they will get a ton of cash on the Texans, & by the way, the line opened Texans -4.5 & was quickly bet up to -7.5...............I think the sharps will try to middle this game.

The Texans have the Packers & Ravens back to back at home coming up so they may take it easy on the Jets. I like the Texans 10 point teaser..............


Advanced line was Texans -1 as well
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#16
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:46:19 PM
I meant 7.  9 is with more vig. 

6 pt teasers will be in jeopardy also. 
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#17
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:49:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by cambyspree99:

You are really dumb if u take the jets. Just flush your money down the toilet!

Just like you flushed yours down the toilet on the Giants last night you clown.

Jets 

Love your Rams play also LC, we think alike.

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#18
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:50:49 PM
5dimes is my primary also   along with my a few others.  They always put their openings with added juice which I can't stand. 

Betonline is the book that opened at -4.5 for Houston, PTB.  There lines are often off and they adjust 2 to 4 points when the other books open.  I got Iowa State at 14.5 at example in college and it opened at 11.5 at other books. 
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#19
Posted: 10/1/2012 1:53:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Alldaygambler28:

5dimes is my primary also   along with my a few others.  They always put their openings with added juice which I can't stand. 

Betonline is the book that opened at -4.5 for Houston, PTB.  There lines are often off and they adjust 2 to 4 points when the other books open.  I got Iowa State at 14.5 at example in college and it opened at 11.5 at other books. 


Damn man, you can do some damage at that book............i would have hammered Texans -4.5 & then waited until Monday night to probably grab the Jets +9 for a possible middle.................

Then again, is Betonline a trusted book?
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#20
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:22:12 PM
Hey League capper, I totally respect what you have to say and totally agree with the angle that you're using, but does it concern you at all, that you're betting a team that may be in shambles. I remember two years ago, everyone kept chasing the Cowboys assuming they would win and they continuely shyt the bed and they had talent. Last year Eagles, everyone conitnued to chase them and they continuely shyt the bed and they had talent. Now you have the Jets, that in my mind don't have any playmakers on offense, have shown you absolutely nothing all season IMO. Barely squeaked by Miami, could have easily lost that game. Buffalo has shown us, if you catch them on the right they, they'll let anyone put up 30 plus against them, and they scored 10 against Pitt, who's defense is not that good right now, ask Den and Oak. Are you concerned at all that the Jets may just be bad all year, that is possible you know? Then on the other side. Houston has a chance to show America who they are. Not many people have watched this team. And typically teams like Cincy and Houston tend to make sure they win games that they're suppose to. They're not good enough to be overlooking people. I just think all your valid points for taking the Jets are neutralized with with the state of mind, and I believe the Jets offense has taken a serious toll on the Jets defense, so if Sanchez doesn't score within the first 3 drives, you might have a defense on the verge of not giving a darn. Just my opinion. Bad playing can be contagious, and if Sanchez throws an early pick, this game could be a disaster. I seriously think the Jets defense has absolutely no respect for their offense. Hence Cromartie saying he could be their number 2 receiver. ANd now you have Holmes out? Jets are a mess right now, and yes the public is gonna be on the Texans come Monday, but remember the public doesn't always lose. BOL, because I will have the Texans tied into some type of ml parlay, so we can still both win.
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#21
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:39:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TyDarius:

Hey League capper, I totally respect what you have to say and totally agree with the angle that you're using, but does it concern you at all, that you're betting a team that may be in shambles. I remember two years ago, everyone kept chasing the Cowboys assuming they would win and they continuely shyt the bed and they had talent. Last year Eagles, everyone conitnued to chase them and they continuely shyt the bed and they had talent. Now you have the Jets, that in my mind don't have any playmakers on offense, have shown you absolutely nothing all season IMO. Barely squeaked by Miami, could have easily lost that game. Buffalo has shown us, if you catch them on the right they, they'll let anyone put up 30 plus against them, and they scored 10 against Pitt, who's defense is not that good right now, ask Den and Oak. Are you concerned at all that the Jets may just be bad all year, that is possible you know? Then on the other side. Houston has a chance to show America who they are. Not many people have watched this team. And typically teams like Cincy and Houston tend to make sure they win games that they're suppose to. They're not good enough to be overlooking people. I just think all your valid points for taking the Jets are neutralized with with the state of mind, and I believe the Jets offense has taken a serious toll on the Jets defense, so if Sanchez doesn't score within the first 3 drives, you might have a defense on the verge of not giving a darn. Just my opinion. Bad playing can be contagious, and if Sanchez throws an early pick, this game could be a disaster. I seriously think the Jets defense has absolutely no respect for their offense. Hence Cromartie saying he could be their number 2 receiver. ANd now you have Holmes out? Jets are a mess right now, and yes the public is gonna be on the Texans come Monday, but remember the public doesn't always lose. BOL, because I will have the Texans tied into some type of ml parlay, so we can still both win.


No, the matchup doesn't concern me at all as I don't cap games based on matchup, I cap them simply based on the situation and spot. The matchup between the teams is already taken into account by the spread so there is no point in me capping the matchup. Vegas makes the spread not me, that spread already takes into account Sanchez, his lack of weapons, Santonio Holmes injury, how good the Texans defense is etc etc. There is no point in capping the matchup, vegas has already done it for you when they released the line. That is was 90% of cappers fail to realize.
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#22
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:39:54 PM
This happens every season. 

One team looks unstoppable, the other looks horrible. 

All the squares bet n the unstoppable team, all you hear is how there is no way the don't cover and sure enough the horrible team covers. 

Houston has played

Miami, Jax, Denver and Tennessee

Jets have played

Buffalo, Pitt, Miami, San Fran. 

My point is Houston has had one decent opponent, Denver. And we really don't know how good Denver really is. 

At least the jets have had 2 good opponents in Pitt and San Fran. 

You think Houston is going 5-0 ats?

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#23
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:12:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

You guys should realize that if Vegas wanted to clean house & thought the Jets could win SU, the line would be Texans -6...............the line will be -9 by game time because they know they will get a ton of cash on the Texans, & by the way, the line opened Texans -4.5 & was quickly bet up to -7.5...............I think the sharps will try to middle this game.

The Texans have the Packers & Ravens back to back at home coming up so they may take it easy on the Jets. I like the Texans 10 point teaser..............


Vegas had Texans +1 vs Jets a week ago.....

Too bad you guys missed out.
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#24
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:16:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Niners13:



Vegas had Texans +1 vs Jets a week ago.....

Too bad you guys missed out.


Exactly what I was pointing out in post #4. And now people see the thromping the Jets just took and will happily take the Texans at -7.5 despite being on the road for a MNF game with two top teams on deck. There's no way I would ever fathom taking a -7.5 spread when the line was +1 a week prior, I don't care how bad the Jets look.
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#25
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:43:22 PM
A few things to consider for Texans/Jets game. I agree that the line is way too high. However, consider that other than Schaub and Andre Johnson, this is a young, hungry Texans team. They have crushed every opponent so far this season. Its the first time this team has been on MNF in quite a while and they have some players that want to make a statement on national TV. Sanchez is a joke and has no chance to pass against the Texans defense. It is a defense that is designed to focus on the pass. I don't think there is any doubt the Texans win this game, the question is by how much. The Texans have led every game so far by 20+. The only team that was able to put up a fight was Denver with a Manning after getting torched early. Denver is pretty solid imo. I think the Texans will be motivated because its a Monday night game and they want to make a statement. Otherwise, I might buy into the letdown factor. I expect the Texans defense to come in frothing at the mouth wanting to make Sanchez their girl in national TV. I think the defense keeps the Texans in the game to make up for any possible sluggish start by the offense. Sanchez is good for at least a 7pic point gift to the Texans and the Texans had an off week offensively this past week for them. The defense scored two Td's against Tenn. The Texans are basically San Fran with a competent QB. It could be a long night for the Jets.
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