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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Pure Discretionary System Plays - Week 4
AllNumbers13 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/24/2012 10:36:00 AM
Extremely rough outing this past week, but that garbage wont startle me - just need to take it down a notch and regain composure. 

To those who tailed, I apologize - in fairness though, one of the aspects of betting that renders sportsbetting unique is the fact that its a long term game. And no matter how confident I may be - and trust me, i was veryy confident this weekend, i wouldnt dare say "youre welcome" otherwise if i didnt think i was going to kill it - i am not superman and there is no such thing as a "lock." It happens, just have to learn not to chase and just make sure to keep emotions in check. 

In any event, through the first few weeks of the season my record in:

NFL - Overall: 18 for 32 (56%)

Tier I - 12 for 22 (55%) 
Tier II - 6 for 10 (60%) 

NCAAF - Overall: 20 for 40 (50%) 

Tier I - 9 for 17 (53%) 
Tier II - 7 for 14 (50%) 
Tier III - 4 for 9 (44%) 1 push  

Combined NFL & NCAAF - Overall - 38-34 (53%) 

Tier I - 21-18 (54%) 
Tier II - 13-11 (54%) 
Tier III - 4-5 (44%) 


Bounce back time. 

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#2
Posted: 9/24/2012 11:02:11 AM
Yeap,public ncaaf plays came in smoking Saturday,but vegas bit back Sunday with most public teams losing SU,49ers,Saints,Lions,Steelers,Colts,Redskins,etc.
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#3
Posted: 9/24/2012 1:41:37 PM
NFL MNF: 


Seattle +3.5 (Tier I)  

I had this play circled since early last week, and was more or less the strongest play on the board for along with cinci and oakland. Let us get back on track! Good luck to all.. 

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#4
Posted: 9/24/2012 2:19:11 PM
AllN13,  There is no need to apologize or explain, for those who tail we do so at our own risk.  You have an excellent and unique sports bettor approach.  One that will always make you successful in the long run.  Every bet should be a learning experience, win or lose, thanks for sharing with us. Looking forward to your next picks.
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#5
Posted: 9/24/2012 2:59:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by conrad63:

AllN13,  There is no need to apologize or explain, for those who tail we do so at our own risk.  You have an excellent and unique sports bettor approach.  One that will always make you successful in the long run.  Every bet should be a learning experience, win or lose, thanks for sharing with us. Looking forward to your next picks.


I appreciate the words dude. 

"every bet should be a learning experience"... words of the wise right there. That's probably why I enjoy this so much - the idea that you can always improve is motivating. Oh, that and the fact that gambling is as addicting as any drug on this planet 
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#6
Posted: 9/24/2012 5:42:21 PM
Check ur inbox and hit me up
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#7
Posted: 9/24/2012 7:25:17 PM
Gl my friend
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#8
Posted: 9/24/2012 7:38:47 PM
GL man I'm on Seattle as well.
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#9
Posted: 9/25/2012 12:38:39 AM
Unless they take it back ... 


Seattle +3.5 (Tier I) - 
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#10
Posted: 9/25/2012 12:42:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AllNumbers13:

Unless they take it back ... 


Seattle +3.5 (Tier I) - 

They won't take it back.. worst case scenario is no action.. 
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#11
Posted: 9/25/2012 11:46:07 AM
Thoughts on Survivor League for week 4?

These are the four games I like the most. I have already used up Houston Texans, Cinci, and Dallas. 


Baltimore (vs. Cleveland) 
Denver (vs. Oakland) 
Arizona (vs. Miami) 

Risky pick:

Tampa (vs. Washington) 
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#12
Posted: 9/25/2012 10:50:50 PM
Leans in NFL so far:

Jets +4
Buffalo +4
Kansas City -1
Miami +6
Denver -6.5
Tampa -3
Dallas -3.5
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#13
Posted: 9/25/2012 11:02:35 PM
Is this just your leans or did you and percentages come up with this together?
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#14
Posted: 9/26/2012 12:21:28 AM
These are just my leans -- I'm glad someone is paying attention and notices the value with whats about to go down with percentages and allnumbers13. Hopefully a weekend to remember this upcoming saturday and sunday. 


Let's get it.  
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#15
Posted: 9/26/2012 5:59:04 AM
What up AN1, jus your thoughts on why leaning Jets? 
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#16
Posted: 9/26/2012 12:48:54 PM
AN13 what are your thoughts on the Thursday night games. Both college and NFL. I am leaning Wash+7 in college and Cle+13 in NFL. Your thoughts would be much appreciated.
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#17
Posted: 9/26/2012 2:50:30 PM
Block - i think the jets absolutely suck, but I also think that San Fran is going to garbage the bed, while over-promising and under-delivering. I cant wait to fade the jets in the near future, but for now, I think San Fran is the team to fade. I think San Fran -4 is a little low, though there are many reasons as to why the spread is what it is. I am waiting for the proceeding line movements before I lock myself in. 


Tide - I don't have an opinion on the Baltimore game as of right now. I am only considering it for my survivor pool. In terms of NCAAF though, I am currently leaning Washington +6.5. Will keep you guys posted. 
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#18
Posted: 9/26/2012 3:07:09 PM
Thanks AN13 and GL on the weekend.
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#19
Posted: 9/26/2012 9:31:04 PM
BOL
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#20
Posted: 9/27/2012 8:52:50 AM
 guys...


Tonight so far:

NCAAF:

Washington vs. Stanford Under 47.5 (Tier I) 
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#21
Posted: 9/27/2012 4:06:41 PM

Are you gonna post a play for the NFL tonight?
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#22
Posted: 9/27/2012 7:51:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AllNumbers13:

 guys...


Tonight so far:

NCAAF:

Washington vs. Stanford Under 47.5 (Tier I) 

Good luck, I got it at U49

 

What do you think of WASH +7?

Time for a cold beer

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#23
Posted: 9/27/2012 7:55:32 PM
Cleveland +12 (Tier I) 
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#24
Posted: 9/27/2012 8:35:51 PM
Washington +7 (Tier I) 
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#25
Posted: 9/27/2012 10:10:20 PM

Didn't see the Cleveland pick in time, but I ended up going with Wash +7, plus the under.

GL buddy

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