Sitautional Capping 101

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Sitautional Capping 101
JBecks12 PM JBecks12
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Posted: 10/2/2012 12:48:02 AM
I was trying to find DETAILED historical data on MNF but could not. If anyone has a link please share.

What I want to look at is detailed data by quarters. If the premise is correct and correlated, it will show up clearly and verifiably in 4th qtr results.

And then "what to do?' can be answered by taking the West coast team playing on east coast for 4th Qtr ML--LARGE


Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 10/2/2012 2:22:11 AM

west to east on sunday playing 1pm games was a great angle a few years ago.west lost like 11 of 12 ats.

like  the convo between van and league,keep it going.league,dont take it personal,it's a good topic.

Mr mason PM Mr mason
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Posted: 10/2/2012 2:48:01 AM
Good stuff!
Posted using a mobile device.
McLovinU PM McLovinU
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Posted: 10/2/2012 3:08:06 AM
Arizona(west) Vs Rams(east) GameTime 8:20
You picked Rams ?
I'm confused

NHLGOON PM NHLGOON
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Posted: 10/2/2012 4:38:20 AM
  Sd vs no NSFNSF
NHLGOON PM NHLGOON
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Posted: 10/2/2012 4:39:10 AM
Sd vs no snf 
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 10/2/2012 4:44:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by McLovinU:

Arizona(west) Vs Rams(east) GameTime 8:20
You picked Rams ?
I'm confused



St Louis is not in the eastern time zone. It's in the central.
sportskingpin PM sportskingpin
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Posted: 10/3/2012 1:12:35 AM
This was a very nice read. As someone asks in the deadspin link "wouldn't you think that Vegas already knows about this trend and has it incorporated into the line, if indeed it is a relevant issue?" 
T_Rav1088 PM T_Rav1088
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Posted: 10/3/2012 1:34:09 AM

To answer above, travel cross country is factored in.  There are few angles that actually could change points that Vegas hasn't already added.  This is certainly one that is always included.

cam2smitty PM cam2smitty
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:03:22 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NHLGOON:

Sd vs no snf 

NOLA is central time
cam2smitty PM cam2smitty
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:18:28 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ninefine:

So looking back over 10 seasons of data for MNF only... There were no games that fit this trend in 2010, 2009, 2007 or 2004.  The trend is 7 - 3 SU.  I didn't have time to look at the spreads for the games so not sure of the ATS record.  10 games over 10 seasons seems like too small of a sample size.  It would be interesting to add in all the night games as well, SNF, Thursday and those random times they play on Sat night.   

2011:
Dec 5_SD 38 - JAC 14 (0 2h pts, 0 4Qpts)
Dec 19_SF 20 - PIT 3 (3 2h pts, 0 4Q pts) *Roethlisberger played with a garbage ankle though.

2008:
Sep 22_SD 48 - NYJ 29  (15 2h pts, 15 4Q pts) 

2006:
Oct 9_DEN 13 - BAL 3 (0 2h pts, 0 4Q pts)

2005:
OCT 10_PIT 24 - SD 22 (Pit 10 2h pts, 10 4Q pts)
DEC 5_SEA 42 - PHI 0 *you should figure this out

2003:
OCT 27_MIA 26 - SD 10 (Mia 2 2h pts, 2 4Q pts)
NOV 17_SF 30 - PIT 14 (Pit 14 2h pts, 7 4Q pts)

2002:
NOV 25_PHI 38 -SF 17 (Phi 17 2h pts, 3 4Q pts)
DEC 2_OAK 26 - NYJ 20 (NYJ 10 2h pts, 10 4Q pts)


FrozenTundra PM FrozenTundra
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:19:02 AM
LeagueCapper - thanks for the info, something I will look into more when capping.

Vanzack - you're a person, but you know that already. I know you know your garbage, but your arrogant approach in this thread with backhanded comments isn't going to lead to an intellectual conversation.


GunShard PM GunShard
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Posted: 10/3/2012 4:54:25 AM
Critical factor why the west coast team defeating a east coast team theory will fail in the long run.

The fact that the 49ers went to Ohio before they faced the NY Jets. The 49ers shutout the Jets last week.
The 49ers going to neutral field will inspire other west coast teams to do the same.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 8:30:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FrozenTundra:

LeagueCapper - thanks for the info, something I will look into more when capping.

Vanzack - you're a person, but you know that already. I know you know your garbage, but your arrogant approach in this thread with backhanded comments isn't going to lead to an intellectual conversation.




I know you think Im more interested in the comment directed at me, but Im not.  Im interested in your comment to League Capper.....

Are you REALLY going to look more in to this when capping?  REALLY?  You are going to take a trend - that is 7-3 over the past 10 years, and look further in to while capping?  Im really interested to hear how you are going to do this - how are you going to incorporate this in to your capping?

The one time this year this is scheduled to happen - are you going to blindly bet on the west coast team?  On the spread?  ML?  This is the part nobody has responded to - and everyone who posts taht they are thankful for this wonderful information ignores.....

What do you do with this information exactly??????


vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 8:36:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by T_Rav1088:

To answer above, travel cross country is factored in.  There are few angles that actually could change points that Vegas hasn't already added.  This is certainly one that is always included.



I would also like to understand this one.

The line for this situation - a monday night west coast team going to an east coast team city - is actually altered in favor of the east coast team because of this trend on sleep patterns??????  REALLY?????

And what are these other "angles that vegas hasnt already incorporated"???

Sorry - for anyone who thinks I am a person, arrogant - whatever you want to call it.....  I dont bow down to hocus pocus claims.  I cant blindly thank someone for posting a statement like the one above.  Sorry.  If you like that - if you want that - there are plenty who do - just thank them.  Im here to spark a conversation - to try and get at if there is actually something to the claim - because believe it or not- every once in a while there is.  It is like 1 out of 100 - but you have to be discriminating to actually learn.  You cant accept everything for fact because there is a ton of bullshit on here.

Now, I would love this latest comment clarified.  Otherwise, it just is another that falls in to the bullshit category.


xanthax PM xanthax
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Posted: 10/3/2012 9:22:34 AM
Vanzack  give it up already.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 10:15:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by xanthax:

Vanzack  give it up already.


Imagine if Darwin and Gallileo "gave it up".  Imagine if Ghandi and Jesus "gave it up".

Greatness is always met with resistance from the masses.  It is a curse I have learned to live with.  The loneliness sometimes wears on me, but then I snap my fingers and get a blowjob from a supermodel - and all is better.  Life is good.


hardyvault PM hardyvault
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Posted: 10/3/2012 11:51:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



The loneliness sometimes wears on me, but then I snap my fingers and get a blowjob from a supermodel - and all is better.  Life is good.




Whatever credibility you might have had, was just completely lost...
SwishSwish1234 PM SwishSwish1234
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Posted: 10/3/2012 12:14:14 PM
How is Vanzack the guy to blame for the petty squabbling in this thread??? He merely asked a few questions of this so called magical system and the OP just acted like a drama queen and got all touchy feely, I agree Vanzack did drop the occasional sarcastic comment in there but that was after the initial girlish response he got from the OP. If the OP doesn't want to answer questions in his threads then why does he make the thread??? Or is he expecting everyone to rim job him and say oh great system my man, Jesus. 

The OP sounds like a big know it all, Well If he's the second coming of Billy Walters why doesn't he post his record?? It's one thing to win the occasional big play but provide us a record and if that record reads 15-2 etc then we can start jerking him off until then play your position LC. 
Biscuit PM Biscuit
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Posted: 10/3/2012 12:19:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

west to east on sunday playing 1pm games was a great angle a few years ago.west lost like 11 of 12 ats.

like  the convo between van and league,keep it going.league,dont take it personal,it's a good topic.



FYI

From 2008-2010, west coast teams traveling and playing 1pm starts were 18-28 ATS, covering only 39%

In 2011, west coast teams traveling and playing 1pm starts were 10-5 ATS (Niners were 4-1 in that situation)

So far in 2012 those teams are 2-3 ATS in 1pm starts


vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 12:32:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:

How is Vanzack the guy to blame for the petty squabbling in this thread??? He merely asked a few questions of this so called magical system and the OP just acted like a drama queen and got all touchy feely, I agree Vanzack did drop the occasional sarcastic comment in there but that was after the initial girlish response he got from the OP. If the OP doesn't want to answer questions in his threads then why does he make the thread??? Or is he expecting everyone to rim job him and say oh great system my man, Jesus. 

The OP sounds like a big know it all, Well If he's the second coming of Billy Walters why doesn't he post his record?? It's one thing to win the occasional big play but provide us a record and if that record reads 15-2 etc then we can start jerking him off until then play your position LC. 


Thank you.

If you read this thread chronologically, you will see this.  I simply asked questions.  The OP got upset, so I played along.

Jeesh.  Lets have a discussion here.  Im pretty sure this "angle" is garbage - but prove me wrong for heavens sakes.  Lets have a discussion about it, tell me why Im wrong.  Im open to it.  Lets debate.  This is a DISCUSSION board, otherwise there would only be posts and no replies.

Im sorry for thinking about this critically instead of just accepting it as fact.  Im glad I did though - I think it showed the weakness in trends in general.


esplanade PM esplanade
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Posted: 10/3/2012 12:47:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



It is relevant why?  Because YOU SAY SO?

How many data points are in that 25 years of data?

Do you know that Harvard has 10% more breakfast cheerios eaters than the general population.  If I eat cheerios, do I have a better chance of getting in to Harvard?

Look - why wouldnt this apply to MLB, NBA, NCAAF, and NHL?  Why only NFL on Monday Night, not Thurs or Sun?  What defines a "west coast team"?  What defines an "east coast team"?

Its a cute stat.  It really is - as you can see by all of the ball licking replies before I got here.  But it is a mindfuck.  Prove me wrong with real stats - and I will tell you that you are right.  But for now - with what you provided, it is nothing more than a cheerios stat.


It does apply to baseball. A bit more research to support your purported reputation as a sharp guy would be appropriate before you start throwing out counter examples on which you are apparently without a clue.
clubtnt PM clubtnt
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Posted: 10/3/2012 1:00:03 PM
okay, i did read the discussion between vanzack and LC chronologically and frozentundra is right, vanzack is a person. and now he's comparing himself to darwin, gallileo, jesus, and ghandi.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:03:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by esplanade:



It does apply to baseball. A bit more research to support your purported reputation as a sharp guy would be appropriate before you start throwing out counter examples on which you are apparently without a clue.




Another guy who announces we should believe him because he says so.

So funny.


vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/3/2012 2:04:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clubtnt:

okay, i did read the discussion between vanzack and LC chronologically and frozentundra is right, vanzack is a person. and now he's comparing himself to darwin, gallileo, jesus, and ghandi.


OK, what are you going to do with the original posters information he presented in this thread? 


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