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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Sitautional Capping 101
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#26
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:11:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:



It is relevant why?  Because YOU SAY SO?

How many data points are in that 25 years of data?

Do you know that Harvard has 10% more breakfast cheerios eaters than the general population.  If I eat cheerios, do I have a better chance of getting in to Harvard?

Look - why wouldnt this apply to MLB, NBA, NCAAF, and NHL?  Why only NFL on Monday Night, not Thurs or Sun?  What defines a "west coast team"?  What defines an "east coast team"?

Its a cute stat.  It really is - as you can see by all of the ball licking replies before I got here.  But it is a mindfuck.  Prove me wrong with real stats - and I will tell you that you are right.  But for now - with what you provided, it is nothing more than a cheerios stat.


Wow, how you can relate this to that cheerios statement is unreal. Noone said this doesn't work for MLB, NHL, or any other sport and this trend definitely applies to SNF and TNF as well. All I provided was a small bit of information which you could apply in any sport. The fact that your saying you don't believe it and need to see more is admitting to the fact of how lazy you are. Why don't you research it? You wan't me to spoonfeed you everything? Take 30 minutes and do some research and see if you can't find any correlation, if you don't find anything i'll be happy to show you more proof through PM but your 100% wrong and i have plenty more proof of this applying to NFL as well as other sports/athletes
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#27
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:13:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

And BTW - Im curious what you propose we do with this information - if even true.

Do we blindly bet "the west coast team" when playing "an east coast team" on Monday night? 

You make such a strong case in your original post that "this kind of handicapping is what the NFL is all about."  What if there is a 70% trend on the east coast team?  Which carries heavier weight?




This has to do with the time zone. West coast teams are in the pacific time zones which is 3 hours earlier than east coast teams playing in the eastern time zone. If you think athletes playing at midnight are competing fairly with athletes competing at 9:00pm then I have nothing else to say to you
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#28
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:13:13 PM
I'm going to propose an advertising campaign for General Mills that will imply that eating Cheerios makes you smarter. I could be sitting on a gold mine here thanks to you.
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#29
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:15:51 PM
definitely something I will keep in mind 
TY
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#30
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:16:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Wow, how you can relate this to that cheerios statement is unreal. Noone said this doesn't work for MLB, NHL, or any other sport and this trend definitely applies to SNF and TNF as well. All I provided was a small bit of information which you could apply in any sport. The fact that your saying you don't believe it and need to see more is admitting to the fact of how lazy you are. Why don't you research it? You wan't me to spoonfeed you everything? Take 30 minutes and do some research and see if you can't find any correlation, if you don't find anything i'll be happy to show you more proof through PM but your 100% wrong and i have plenty more proof of this applying to NFL as well as other sports/athletes

Why should he research it when you're the bearer of good news telling us how the trend hits at 65 % +, He is asking you to provide more info on the subject other than telling us what the actual trend is, Why does this trend work, What's the reasoning behind it working?? It's your thread not his, It's your duty to back up what you said not his. 
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#31
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:18:47 PM

I kind of agree with Vanzack, I am not sure I am drinking the Kool aid on this one. You can find trends that can back up anything. Things I like to factor are :

-Teams coming off emotional wins, (Seattle Last week)- Yes I bet the Rams

-Teams playing with Revenge or Double Revenge

-Trap games etc...

 

GL though

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#32
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:19:25 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:


Why should he research it when you're the bearer of good news telling us how the trend hits at 65 % +, He is asking you to provide more info on the subject other than telling us what the actual trend is, Why does this trend work, What's the reasoning behind it working?? It's your thread not his, It's your duty to back up what you said not his. 


I did back up what I said. I backed it up completely about how it worked in the NFL and provided statistics and proof. He brought up other sports of which I told him to research. I brought up nothing about other sports in my first post so I have no justification to need to prove this (although it does apply to other sports as well)
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#33
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:19:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Wow, how you can relate this to that cheerios statement is unreal. Noone said this doesn't work for MLB, NHL, or any other sport and this trend definitely applies to SNF and TNF as well. All I provided was a small bit of information which you could apply in any sport. The fact that your saying you don't believe it and need to see more is admitting to the fact of how lazy you are. Why don't you research it? You wan't me to spoonfeed you everything? Take 30 minutes and do some research and see if you can't find any correlation, if you don't find anything i'll be happy to show you more proof through PM but your 100% wrong and i have plenty more proof of this applying to NFL as well as other sports/athletes


Why would I need to even research it? 

You say it "definitely applies to SNF and TNF as well".

Thats enough for me!!


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#34
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:23:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



This has to do with the time zone. West coast teams are in the pacific time zones which is 3 hours earlier than east coast teams playing in the eastern time zone. If you think athletes playing at midnight are competing fairly with athletes competing at 9:00pm then I have nothing else to say to you


OK, so west coast teams are defined by time zone.  Is Arizona west coast?  I think they dont practice daylight savings.....

But what about the line used for determining the ATS winner?  Is that the closing line?  Opening line?  Which book is the official number?

How many times over the past 25 years has this actually happened?

And on and on and on.  So far you would fail a middle school stats course.  Prove me wrong.  Please.  Im serious.  I am ready and more than willing to say I was wrong.

The reason I post this is not to pick a fight.  I am actually generally curious to the point of obsessed about learning new things like this.  The problem is - 99% of them dont pan out.  But I keep searching for a nugget in the stream.  And sometimes I get them here.  So please, show me this is true....


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#35
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:24:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



I did back up what I said. I backed it up completely about how it worked in the NFL and provided statistics and proof. He brought up other sports of which I told him to research. I brought up nothing about other sports in my first post so I have no justification to need to prove this (although it does apply to other sports as well)


At a bare minimum - to even begin to have any credibility - you must source your data that you quote.

Just tell us the games you reference, and the lines associated with them.  That way - we have a starting point.


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#36
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:28:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

And BTW - Im curious what you propose we do with this information - if even true.

Do we blindly bet "the west coast team" when playing "an east coast team" on Monday night? 

You make such a strong case in your original post that "this kind of handicapping is what the NFL is all about."  What if there is a 70% trend on the east coast team?  Which carries heavier weight?




The above is a very important question for you.

I would like it if you would attempt to answer completely.

I am always curious how a trend bettor deals with this issue.  Are there some trends that are more important than others?

This is a real question. I am genuinely curious about how you handle this problem.


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#37
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:29:25 PM
Me too
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#38
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:30:10 PM

Vanzack, if you simply asked for proof without attacking me I would have provided it for you without all this mess. There was a very famous study at Stanford done discussing circadian rhythms in sports.

"The scheduling of Monday Night Football games presents a unique circadian problem, especially if a team from the West Coast is playing a team from the East Coast. Players on the West Coast team are playing at their equivalent of 5:30 p.m., no matter if the game is in Seattle or Miami. Players on the team from the East Coast, meanwhile, are three hours ahead in their own circadian cycles. In nature, this sort of mismatch couldn't happen. It was only in the last 60 years or so that we've developed a way to travel so quickly across time zones that our internal clocks are no longer in sync with the daylight around us. Fitting its cause, we call this condition jet lag.

Without knowing it, athletes on teams from the East Coast are playing at a disadvantage. Because of the circadian rhythm, which they can't control, their bodies are past their natural performance peaks before the first quarter ends. By the fourth quarter, the team from the East Coast will be competing close to its equivalent of midnight. Their bodies will be subtly preparing for sleep by taking steps such as lowering the body temperature, slowing the reaction time, and increasing the amount of melatonin in their bloodstream. Athletes on the team from the West Coast, meanwhile, are still competing in the prime time of their circadian cycle.

Every human body, ranging from a professional athlete to a suburban dad, will experience small declines in physical ability and mental agility the longer it fights against the circadian rhythm. In the modern NFL, this has a significant impact because teams in the league are more evenly matched than those in the other major sports, and anything that alters a single player's ability has an outsized effect on the outcome of the game. What's more, there is little that an East Coast team can do about the circadian disadvantage. The schedule gives coaches few chances to adapt to the time difference. Teams traveling on the road typically fly in the night before the game, and East Coast teams playing at home rarely attempt to put their body clocks on Pacific Standard Time. Coaches instead tell their players not to try to adjust to the time differences, preferring that they keep up with their normal sleep patterns for consistency.

The Stanford researchers dug through 25 years of Monday night NFL games and flagged every time a West Coast team played an East Coast team. Then, in an inspired move, they compared the final scores for each game with the point spread developed by bookmakers in Vegas. The results were stunning. The West Coast teams dominated their East Coast opponents no matter where they played. A West Coast team won 63 percent of the time, by an average of two touchdowns. The games were much closer when an East Coast team won, with an average margin of victory of only nine points. By picking the West Coast team every time, someone would have beaten the point spread 70 percent of the time. For gamblers in Las Vegas, the matchup was as good as found money.

In a test to ensure that their findings weren't the result of West Coast teams simply being better during those years, the researchers expanded their scope and looked at every Monday Night Football game played during that twenty-five-year time span. They found that the overall winning percentages for West Coast and East Coast teams were essentially even when the teams were not playing a game against an opponent from the other coast. Nor were the results a reflection of home-field advantage. When an East Coast team traveled to another destination within its same time zone, it won 45 percent of the time. But if a team from the East Coast played somewhere in the Pacific time zone, its winning percentage shrunk to only 29 percent.

The circadian advantage—or disadvantage, depending on your perspective–-popped up in studies of figure skaters, rowers, golfers, baseball players, swimmers, and divers. Everywhere you turned, there was evidence of the body's hidden rhythms at work. One study found that in sports as varied as running, weightlifting, and swimming, athletes competing when their bodies experienced the second boost of circadian energy were more likely to break a world record. Long jumpers, for instance, launched themselves nearly 4 percent farther when the body was at its circadian peak. But the circadian rhythm cut both ways. Athletes competing when their circadian rhythm corresponded to the so-called sleep gates—those times in the early afternoon or late nights when it's easy for most people to fall asleep—consistently performed a little worse than normal, even if the slowdown wasn't obvious to them.


http://deadspin.com/5934440/the-circadian-advantage-how-sleep-patterns-benefit-certain-nfl-teams

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#39
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:38:27 PM
Alright!!

Now we are talking.  Thanks for the link and the info.

I still have questions about the vague nature of the article and the stats, but that doesnt diminish my conceding that this is what I asked for. 

My supposition is that this is a stat used to sell a book (at the end of the article).  And my supposition is that this is still not causation - and if it was - what should we do with it - but you did provide what seems like a reputable source - and for that-  you are ahead of 99% of the stat posters on here (pun intended).

It would have been nice if you sourced the article in the first post instead of trying to make it look like your own work - but hey - that is probably nitpicky.


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#40
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:39:33 PM
And I would still love to hear your response to post #36.

I am genuinely confused by it.  Never understood it.  Hoping you can clarify.


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#41
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:48:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

And I would still love to hear your response to post #36.

I am genuinely confused by it.  Never understood it.  Hoping you can clarify.




There are a lot of trends that are simply nonsense and they are obvious when you first hear them. But there are others that are credible if they are relevant. So my answer would be it all depends on the 70% trend on the east coast team you have but like I said, I discredit 90% of the trends I hear about. It's that other 10% relevant trends backed up by relevant history which are money
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#42
Posted: 10/1/2012 2:53:36 PM
The following is your conclusion in your first post.....

Find situations, spots, and trends to support your capping.

BOTH sides in EVERY SINGLE GAME could apply to this.  You can always find situation, spots, and trends to support BOTH teams.  How do we know which situations, spots, and trends are the important ones?  Which ones do we weigh higher than others?

Capping off eye tests and what you think is the better team will never allow you to break into the great capper you can be. Finding quality trends and situations can allow you to be a 70% capper,  something you will never hit picking teams by who you think will cover.

No chance.  Period.  70% is unattainable and silly.  Forget it.  Total joke.

 The trend I gave you above is hitting 70% over the past 25 years ATS, think about what it's hitting at if you just chose the team 2nd half or 4th quarter?

Pure speculation.  But if this is causation, it would reason to be true.  I would love to hear this stat, and it would further bolster your position if it is true.


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#43
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:00:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

The following is your conclusion in your first post.....

Find situations, spots, and trends to support your capping.

BOTH sides in EVERY SINGLE GAME could apply to this.  You can always find situation, spots, and trends to support BOTH teams.  How do we know which situations, spots, and trends are the important ones?  Which ones do we weigh higher than others?

Capping off eye tests and what you think is the better team will never allow you to break into the great capper you can be. Finding quality trends and situations can allow you to be a 70% capper,  something you will never hit picking teams by who you think will cover.

No chance.  Period.  70% is unattainable and silly.  Forget it.  Total joke.

 The trend I gave you above is hitting 70% over the past 25 years ATS, think about what it's hitting at if you just chose the team 2nd half or 4th quarter?

Pure speculation.  But if this is causation, it would reason to be true.  I would love to hear this stat, and it would further bolster your position if it is true.




I'm done having this conversation with you. It seems your not satisfied with any response I give. If you saw my game of the week last week I had a trend that was 19-0 ATS and 19-0 SU (even underdogs) all time and it won once again. If you want to think trends are meaningless and that they can be applied to both teams then so be it.
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#44
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:01:57 PM
I don't understand the difficulty in thinking athletes will perform worse when there body is more tired.  I know I don't like working out at night after a long day of working and sitting on a computer.  My performance is way worse than working out earlier in the day.

To go further, I have better workouts when I have proper nutrition prior.  So a guy can laugh at the Cheerios thing all they want, but it is pretty obvious athletes compete better with better nutrition. 

You see it all the time.  Teams have their "routine" interrupted or changed.  It usually doesn't work out well.  The Niners have been staying on the East Coast the last 2 years on b2b road games in the east time zone.  I guess it is a coincidence that they have been awesome under Harbaugh with eastern games under his tenure, but sucked prior to him there.  As another example, as a Viking fan, when the Metrodump roof collapsed, their whole routine was thrown off and they had to play a home game in Detroit at Ford Field.  They got thumped by the Gmen. 

Obviously, many times teams overcome obstacles like this, but their is a correlation to all this which provides a logical trend that can result in a guy profitting more than not.  This is useful information. 
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#45
Posted: 10/1/2012 3:05:05 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



I'm done having this conversation with you. It seems your not satisfied with any response I give. If you saw my game of the week last week I had a trend that was 19-0 ATS and 19-0 SU (even underdogs) all time and it won once again. If you want to think trends are meaningless and that they can be applied to both teams then so be it.

Wow.  I thought we were getting somewhwere.  Why take it so personally?  Just having a back and forth convo.

And no, Im not satisfied with someone saying they can cap at 70%, or that it is even possible.

Jeesh.

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#46
Posted: 10/1/2012 4:00:30 PM
does anyone know of a site that goes back 25 years in terms of betting lines?  I assume the tracking of lines was not as good 25 years ago as it is today.  I would be willing to vet this trend if someone knows where you can get the data.  
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#47
Posted: 10/1/2012 4:40:33 PM
So looking back over 10 seasons of data for MNF only... There were no games that fit this trend in 2010, 2009, 2007 or 2004.  The trend is 7 - 3 SU.  I didn't have time to look at the spreads for the games so not sure of the ATS record.  10 games over 10 seasons seems like too small of a sample size.  It would be interesting to add in all the night games as well, SNF, Thursday and those random times they play on Sat night.   

2011:
Dec 5_SD 38 - JAC 14
Dec 19_SF 20 - PIT 3

2008:
Sep 22_SD 48 - NYJ 29

2006:
Oct 9_DEN 13 - BAL 3

2005:
OCT 10_PIT 24 - SD 22
DEC 5_SEA 42 - PHI 0

2003:
OCT 27_MIA 26 - SD 10
NOV 17_SF 30 - PIT 14

2002:
NOV 25_PHI 38 -SF 17
DEC 2_OAK 26 - NYJ 20


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#48
Posted: 10/1/2012 4:54:32 PM

Well, there is your 70% (7-3).

10 games over 10 seasons.   Jeesh.

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#49
Posted: 10/1/2012 5:13:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Well, there is your 70% (7-3).

10 games over 10 seasons.   Jeesh.


Very small sample size.  It is weird that I came up with exactly the number they quoted over the past 25 years for the past 10.  Makes you wonder if the authors were lazy and just went back 10 years but called it 25 to improve their stance.  Not sure if truly going back 25 years even improves their stance, still a small data sample, 25 games over 25 years (if the 10 games over 10 years is pretty much the average).  
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#50
Posted: 10/1/2012 8:01:32 PM
Very Interesting. Keep up the good work Capper. It's appreciated.  Vanzack instead of  arguing show proof that the trend is wrong, whats the big deal , handicapers need and use any and all information to come to a conclusion. Just my 2 cents worth " PEACE" 
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