Sitautional Capping 101

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Sitautional Capping 101
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 9/23/2012 12:57:52 AM
I see a lot of people continue to say X team is way better than Y team, no way Y team has a chance. This is the wrong way to cap and in the long run, will keep you at a consistent 50%-55% capper at best. NFL is all about situational angles and spots.

Example:

Did you know that over the past 25 years of MNF games, when a west coast team faces an east coast team, the west coast team wins SU 63% of the time and ATS 70% of the time no matter where the game is played? Yes that's right, if you bet for a west coast team ATS against an east coast team every MNF for the past 25 years you would have won 70% of all games.

Why is this you ask? Think about it, the game starts at 8:30 PM EST. Teams from the west coast, no matter where the game is, will be playing at their bodies time equivalence of 5:30. Teams from the east coast, there bodies are performing at a time equivalence of 8:30 (even if the game is in SF). By the time the fourth quarter is starting, east coast players are basically playing at what there bodies feel as midnight. Players bodies are naturally preparing for sleep by slowing their reaction times, lowering body temperature, increasing melatonin into the bloodstream etc etc. Huge disadvantage right? All the while the west coast team is still playing at their bodies optimum level and time.

Conclusion:

Find situations, spots, and trends to support your capping. Capping off eye tests and what you think is the better team will never allow you to break into the great capper you can be. Finding quality trends and situations can allow you to be a 70% capper, something you will never hit picking teams by who you think will cover. The trend I gave you above is hitting 70% over the past 25 years ATS, think about what it's hitting at if you just chose the team 2nd half or 4th quarter?

'Till next time!

LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 9/23/2012 1:04:00 AM
Think it's a coincidence ATL got outscored 14-0 in the 4Q last week or that they were just outplayed? Maybe, but my guess is no.
snake2710 PM snake2710
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Posted: 9/23/2012 1:59:11 AM
Like that stuff and im going to keep in the back of my mind
Actionattack PM Actionattack
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Posted: 9/23/2012 2:02:09 AM
NFL is all about situational angles and spots.


you are right about that check out my post and my reasonings.
GreenThumbs PM GreenThumbs
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Posted: 9/23/2012 2:14:00 AM
Great info thanks League!
ruthian_00 PM ruthian_00
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Posted: 9/23/2012 2:14:53 AM
Great post...what else u like this week besides ur teaser?
joshfactor PM joshfactor
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Posted: 9/23/2012 2:25:16 AM
i find a good situation is to locate the rookie class handicapping in these boards & fade away. I hit a nice winner with rutgers today just fading 1 thread full of complete nonsense. did my homework, saw the chance, & cashed a +300 ML ticket tonight.

JFen31 PM JFen31
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Posted: 9/23/2012 2:27:38 AM
Amen. Awesome thread. Way too many people get wrapped up in useless stats and data. Situational capping is absolutely the best way to make money on NFL games.
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 9/23/2012 2:46:51 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ruthian_00:

Great post...what else u like this week besides ur teaser?


Going to have a multiple unit bet on the SNF game, will post a writeup in the morning as the game doesn't start till late.
Plisskin76 PM Plisskin76
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Posted: 9/23/2012 3:00:46 AM

denver's not west coast. atl went into a shell and held on.typical when teams have big leads.

Nice writeup thou.

LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 9/23/2012 3:08:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

denver's not west coast. atl went into a shell and held on.typical when teams have big leads.

Nice writeup thou.



Was just trying to show how ATL did absolutely nothing in the 4Q. Not even sure they got 1 first down. ATL players were playing at midnight when there bodies have already cooled down. Yeah teams go into a shell when they have big leads but they were sleepwalking out there.
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 9/28/2012 2:11:11 AM
Will be looking over every MNF game for the rest of the year tomorrow and see what games qualify for this specific situation for those who PMed me asking for em. Will post back in here sometime tomorrow
T_Rav1088 PM T_Rav1088
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Posted: 9/28/2012 2:35:48 AM
Man that's just pure lazy.  How hard is it for other people to filter through espn and find west coast teams traveling east and vice versa?  You already gave people the tip, they can't do their own work?  I cant' believe people seriously asked for that.
CallMeBruce PM CallMeBruce
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Posted: 9/28/2012 11:54:22 AM
If this works for Monday night games it should apply to SNF games too.  In fact it should also affect Thursday night games.  Have you looked at those games at all?
CMJohnson1 PM CMJohnson1
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Posted: 9/28/2012 12:04:01 PM
Situational play is also the Thursday Night UNDERS so far this year (wednesday for the opening week)

Teams don't have as much time to prepare...playing it safer to prevent injuries without as much healing time.
sloop703 PM sloop703
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Posted: 9/28/2012 12:04:45 PM
Good stuff, couldn't agree more.

Two games I like this weekend are Chiefs and Rams because of that. The Chargers go east to play an early afternoon game which is still 10:00 AM w/ their body clocks in one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL, yet 80% of money is currently on the Chargers because they're clearly the better team on a neutral field. Likewise, Seattle goes east to play a 1:00 game which is 10 or 11 AM Seattle time, and in a bad spot after the Monday night freebie. Rams layed an egg at Chicago and I'm willing to bet they'll be the more focused team, even though I don't like this injured o-line or their defense really at all.

Also played the Browns last night because of the obvious spot.
CMJohnson1 PM CMJohnson1
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Posted: 9/28/2012 12:06:03 PM
Out of the last 12 Thursday games (and this year's Wednesday game) the UNDER is 10-2
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 10/1/2012 1:37:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:

If this works for Monday night games it should apply to SNF games too.  In fact it should also affect Thursday night games.  Have you looked at those games at all?


Without a doubt it works for SNF and TNF as well. Seems this thread needs a bump from all the negative points i've been hearin lately
LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 10/1/2012 1:48:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Out of the last 12 Thursday games (and this year's Wednesday game) the UNDER is 10-2


Nice find. Seems logical as teams have less time to prepare for the game
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/1/2012 1:48:52 PM

Sorry to be the party pooper....

But this is classic correlation without causation.

Take a larger sample size.  Include Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.  Include College football.  You could even include MLB, NHL, and NBA.

You can find a trend to support any angle you want.  Teams who wear red jerseys on the second Sunday of October cover at a 70% rate.  Correlation without causation.

To explain that someone on east coast time is "tired" by midnight and therefore plays poorly is kind of ridiculous.  It doesnt make sense.  Correlations have to have a reasonable explanation or be replicable to have merit.

Betting trends is for people who look for and find patterns in randomness.  Yes, you can find patterns in roulette wheel results - but are they just random patterns or causation?  Certainly you know the answer to that....

Just my opinion.....

LeagueCapper PM LeagueCapper
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Posted: 10/1/2012 1:56:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vanzack:

Sorry to be the party pooper....

But this is classic correlation without causation.

Take a larger sample size.  Include Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.  Include College football.  You could even include MLB, NHL, and NBA.

You can find a trend to support any angle you want.  Teams who wear red jerseys on the second Sunday of October cover at a 70% rate.  Correlation without causation.

To explain that someone on east coast time is "tired" by midnight and therefore plays poorly is kind of ridiculous.  It doesnt make sense.  Correlations have to have a reasonable explanation or be replicable to have merit.

Betting trends is for people who look for and find patterns in randomness.  Yes, you can find patterns in roulette wheel results - but are they just random patterns or causation?  Certainly you know the answer to that....

Just my opinion.....



Correlation without causation? Take a larger sample size?
This is 25 years of data.... how big of a sample size do you want? 50 years?

This is relevant information, not "red jerseys on the second sunday of october" information.
Getty3 PM Getty3
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Posted: 10/1/2012 1:59:53 PM
Vanzack, he gave his reason for causation in the very first post. Whether or not you believe a biological clock and/or sleep habits to be a valid cause is up to you. But either way, he has proposed a reason for the effect.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:01:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:



Correlation without causation? Take a larger sample size?
This is 25 years of data.... how big of a sample size do you want? 50 years?

This is relevant information, not "red jerseys on the second sunday of october" information.


It is relevant why?  Because YOU SAY SO?

How many data points are in that 25 years of data?

Do you know that Harvard has 10% more breakfast cheerios eaters than the general population.  If I eat cheerios, do I have a better chance of getting in to Harvard?

Look - why wouldnt this apply to MLB, NBA, NCAAF, and NHL?  Why only NFL on Monday Night, not Thurs or Sun?  What defines a "west coast team"?  What defines an "east coast team"?

Its a cute stat.  It really is - as you can see by all of the ball licking replies before I got here.  But it is a mindfuck.  Prove me wrong with real stats - and I will tell you that you are right.  But for now - with what you provided, it is nothing more than a cheerios stat.
vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:05:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Getty3:

Vanzack, he gave his reason for causation in the very first post. Whether or not you believe a biological clock and/or sleep habits to be a valid cause is up to you. But either way, he has proposed a reason for the effect.


I read it, and acknowledged his reason in my post.

But this would be replicable.  Meaning - if we set this up, it would prove to be true at the same rate using the same controls.

I will give you 10-1 on any bet you want to make that it is not.

Sure, you can propose any reason for a trend.  Maybe you have a better chance of getting in to Harvard if you eat Cheerios because when you go in for your interview, Harvard smells you to see if you had cheerios.  A much better and valid explanation would be if Harvard had a check box on the application and asked if you eat cheerios.

Lets see some stats on other sports, and Thurs night or Sun night.  Hell - lets just see the stats on his claim of Monday night.  Im suspicious of that too.

I am more than willing to concede I am wrong if proven so.  Stats have a way of sorting things out on their own.


vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 10/1/2012 2:10:50 PM
And BTW - Im curious what you propose we do with this information - if even true.

Do we blindly bet "the west coast team" when playing "an east coast team" on Monday night? 

You make such a strong case in your original post that "this kind of handicapping is what the NFL is all about."  What if there is a 70% trend on the east coast team?  Which carries heavier weight?


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