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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Baltimore/New England total
mellow_wolf send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 9/18/2012 11:19:30 PM
The total is currently at 49.5 

For last years' AFC Championship Game, the total was 50. Are we to believe these are virtually the same two teams as last year given the almost identical total points offered?

I can't entirely subscribe to that notion. 


Pats D vs. Ravens O:

Most importantly, New England's defense, imo, has certainly improved from the last 2 years worth of subpar performances where they were ranked #25 and #31 in total defense respectively. (However, their PPG allowed was a respectable 19.6 and 21.4. "Bend don't break" at its finest). 
Their first 6 draft picks in 2012 were defensive. The two 1st rounders are already starters(LB Hightower and DE Jones).  
They also signed Gregory as their starting FS, an upgrade from their revolving door at this spot last season. 
With Wilfork, Love, Spikes, Mayo, Ninkovich, Chung, Arrington and McCourty returning, this is an improved and very solid starting D, which can apply pressure from various spots. Underrated and rather unnoticed in my view. They have displayed cohesiveness and played with ferocity and consistency against 2(albeit mediocre) offenses in TN and AZ. They held Chris Johnson to 4 yards on 11 carries and allowed only 1 catch to Fitzgerald.

Given this, I think the Patriots will key on stopping Ray Rice. Flacco is still not a top 10 QB in my mind, nor in Belichick's, imo. He had his best playoff game(and one of his best primetime performances ever) in the AFC Championship last year. However, I am not convinced he will replicate this against an improved NE secondary. Boldin and Smith will get their catches, but I don't see either having a huge game. Pitta will get some throws his way to keep the Ravens moving. However, the uptempo, no huddle offense we have seen so far by the Ravens will likely be altered or used much less to keep Brady off the field. It's simply too taxing on the aging Ravens D to be on the field for potentially more than 30 minutes a game.
Instead, Ray Rice should be a workhorse on Sunday night, especially after Harbaugh and Cam Cameron essentially forgot about him in that last series against Philly. Unacceptable. Rice should get 25 touches at least, but will he get big chunks of yards? Not in my estimation. The Patriots should be able to keep him below 4 yards a carry and limit his YAC on receptions. 
One significant change in the Ravens is their improvement on special teams. Corey Graham was brought in to help on coverage and should be useful.  New kicker Tucker can boom it, as evidenced against the Eagles, with 2 FG's greater than 50 yards. This may factor into more of a conservative strategy by Harbaugh if the game is close in the 2nd half. No more blunders by Cundiff this year.




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#2
Posted: 9/18/2012 11:20:17 PM

Ravens D vs Pats O:

On offense, the Pats have lost Matt Light to retirement and their O-line is not nearly as potent as years past. A big area of concern as the season progresses. Solder, Thomas and Wendell don't really impress and they will likely have issues with Ngata. They are fortunate Suggs is out. Lewis is Lewis. Incredible he still brings it with gusto.
Can RB Ridley be a contributor on Sunday? After seeing shifty and top 5 RB LeSean McCoy contained by Balty, I don't think Ridley has much of a chance to bust out, but he will get his 15-20 carries. Though he may not have the blocking needed to excel, due to Hernandez' absence.
Losing Hernandez is a devastating loss from a receiving and blocking standpoint. A good number of Pats' offensive plays utilized a two TE set. This is no longer applicable, unless you think Kellen Winslow will play major minutes(unlikely). Brady will likely use the shotgun more(with more 3 WR sets) and have to rely on his line to give him time. Scary proposition against a pissed off Ravens D in Baltimore. This will also allow Pollard and Reed to focus on Gronkowski and possibly slow him down some. Welker will have to produce, but he has not looked like the rugged player of yore.

Also, Brady really has no deep threat anymore. Lloyd is not Moss. Some interesting stats from ESPN: 

"The deep ball has been increasingly missing with Brady as he's
gotten older. Since 2011, he's overthrown 12 of 19 attempts of 30 yards or more(63.2%). That's the highest in the league. Also, Brady completed only 50.5% of his pass attempts of more than 15 yards last year."




The last 4 matchups have all been played in New England and finished at or under 48 points. This is their first meeting in Baltimore since 2007, before Harbaugh arrived. 
The Ravens D, under Harbaugh, has given up an average of only 13.2 ppg in 34 home games. Amazingly stingy.



I think this total is slightly inflated due to golden boy Brady's reputation and a mildly overrated Ravens offense with a mid-tier Flacco at the helm.


I am on the under 49.5.  Good luck with whatever you may decide.





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Posted: 9/18/2012 11:23:50 PM
i love under in this game
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Posted: 9/18/2012 11:56:29 PM
Deion Branch returns to NE. Timely reunion for them. Doesn't change my play, though.
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#5
Posted: 9/19/2012 12:21:07 AM
like it 
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Posted: 9/19/2012 12:44:32 AM
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#7
Posted: 9/19/2012 1:42:13 AM
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#8
Posted: 9/19/2012 2:13:37 AM
Bol bud
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#9
Posted: 9/19/2012 2:59:33 AM
revenge .
Posted using a mobile device.
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shrimp1958
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#10
Posted: 9/19/2012 8:25:31 AM
Think it's a shoot out at the OK Corrall...No pass rush....Ravens offense...with the no huddle ..much easier at home to operate...
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#11
Posted: 9/19/2012 2:12:12 PM
Best of Luck  
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#12
Posted: 9/19/2012 6:53:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shrimp1958:

Think it's a shoot out at the OK Corrall...No pass rush....Ravens offense...with the no huddle ..much easier at home to operate...

No pass rush from NE? Their defense is improved and their D-line is certainly with some depth. Wilfork and Jones are very capable players.

Could be a shootout if one team gets down big early. But I don't see that happening in a highly charged atmosphere.


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#13
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:23:50 AM
More data:

Over the last 20 years, since the 1992 AFC Championship Game, there have been 16 rematches, the following regular season, involving those same teams.

13 of the 16 have gone 47 or points or below. The three that went over 47 landed at 54, 51,51.

The average score in these rematch games is 43.6 ppg. 


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#14
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:43:19 AM
nice write-up either way 
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#15
Posted: 9/23/2012 7:11:00 PM
Now at 48.5 at most books. I still like the under as I think it will land at 47 or below.

Good luck to all.
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Posted: 9/23/2012 7:14:51 PM
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goscots56
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#17
Posted: 9/23/2012 7:29:17 PM
Great write up.  Win or lose, these are the post i look for with some freaking information.  Back in my college days when I had nothing else to do, I would post write ups all week and get zero feedback.... just donkeys waiting to put it in my face when it didn't hit.

Thanks for the info!!!

BOL
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#18
Posted: 9/23/2012 7:32:31 PM
As more people are leaning towards the UNDER, I am starting to like the OVER....
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#19
Posted: 9/23/2012 7:34:44 PM
very informative write up sir... I am with you.. 
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