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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL THURS Bears vs Packers, BAIT/TRAP line of the week here.
RazorSharps send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#1
Posted: 9/11/2012 4:07:08 PM

NFL-X 21-19 (53%) ( +38 units )

NFL Season 7-6 ( 54%) ( +43.75 units )

NCAAF 17-11 (61%) ( +117.65 units )


Gonna start the week off with what my version of a trap/bait line is.  I saw it with the Seahawks this past week and now I see it again.  So I am putting this play in now.  Layed off MNF cuz sometimes you have to take a break,  Wish I didn't cuz i did love the Chargers,  But oh well.  Money management has to come first.


BEARS +6 MAX UNIT PLAY (15 UNITS)

The Packers is a big big bait line this week,  and I love the fact that its obvious.  Had this line been -7.5 or greater I would be all over the Packers.  Lines are a huge part of my strategy in capping these games, the rest is all hunch and just knowing your talent, i could give two people about trends.  Lines, gut instinct, situations, stats/players/matchups.  Thats really it.  And I know a bait/trap line when i see one.  Most common bettors will be thinking they have a pissed off Packers team at home only -6??  Listen guys,  the Bears are friggin good, and they play very well in games like this.  The Packers defense got chewed up bad by the Niners, and did not have an answer for them.  And of course the offense couldnt amount to anything.  I had Max units/pod on the Packers last week but now that I have seen them play and this line is begging for Packers backers.  Not happening.  I am getting my money back from that loss with this game to start off a solid week.  The Bears may even win this SU but this is a FG game tops



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SportsFreak69
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#2
Posted: 9/11/2012 4:27:47 PM
Best of Luck 
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#3
Posted: 9/11/2012 4:33:39 PM
always appreciate ur input on games but i feel like the line is begging for bears action. bears put the whoopin and win by 20 plus points. packers look like garbage against sf defense and their offense looked outta rythm.why not make the line 3.5 or 4. but thats why we gamble to see. gl as always
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#4
Posted: 9/11/2012 4:37:06 PM
Razor your the man. I was thinking the same; If this was a line greater than a td then I would as well be all over gb and less than 6 is an all out play for Chi, but at 6 makes me gun shy. I agree with you regardless, there is a lot of information in these lines.
BOL man
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#5
Posted: 9/11/2012 4:39:14 PM
lk it GL Razor 
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seminole8
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#6
Posted: 9/11/2012 4:44:57 PM
Love the Bears.  BOL.
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#7
Posted: 9/11/2012 4:58:52 PM
if thats the way you rationalize.  i think it's just the opposite.
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idle_havoc
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#8
Posted: 9/11/2012 5:00:57 PM
agree 
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RazorSharps send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#9
Posted: 9/11/2012 5:02:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kevone623:

always appreciate ur input on games but i feel like the line is begging for bears action. bears put the whooping and win by 20 plus points. packers look like garbage against sf defense and their offense looked outta rhythm.why not make the line 3.5 or 4. but that's why we gamble to see. gl as always



Kevone,

Your point would be very valid had the Bears beat up a proven team like say the Patriots or Giants.  The fact they beat up on the Colts is not really surprising.  The line on that game was Bears -10 at most betting cages by the start of the game, so it was expected that the bears would blow them out, and they did.  Try to see it,  the Packers are home coming off an embarrassing home loss and only -6??.....Bro your betting instinct has to be firing here.  Catching the Packers under a measly TD???  that's a steal right??  WRONG
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#10
Posted: 9/11/2012 5:11:41 PM
I agree with you on this one. Chicago may actually have better balanced offensive weapons than GB. The Packers don't have a clue how to run the ball effectively anymore. I think there will be lots of interest in a bounceback situation for GB, but they might be in over their heads with the Bears right now.
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#11
Posted: 9/11/2012 5:15:28 PM
Why not wait and see if you could 6.5 or 7 with your theory?
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metalbill
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#12
Posted: 9/11/2012 5:31:59 PM
packers defence is painful to watch, it's pathetic. and their lack of a running game well... i don't think the bears need to really worry about that much.

49ers may be a bit better, more complete than the bears right now, time will tell. packers got serious issues and the bears are more than capable of beating them thursday.

side note, Jennings missed practice (groin)

probably sit this one out, hate betting against the packers (homer) but i can see many reasons why guys would take the bears +6 even the m.l. bol man
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#13
Posted: 9/11/2012 5:45:00 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by doliver517:

Why not wait and see if you could 6.5 or 7 with your theory?

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#14
Posted: 9/12/2012 8:44:01 AM
Doliver...

I am not anticipating the line moving much if at all
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#15
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:06:39 AM
Good luck man! You got some balls unloadiing your payroll against GB at Lambo I'll give you that!
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#16
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:09:19 AM
On it...let's cash 
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#17
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:15:23 AM
I'm with you on this....Vegas rakes it in on GB backers early this year.  They have a lot of issues right now.  Their defense looked pathetic against the 9ers, they made Alex Smith look like Brady out there and Gore had a pretty good game too.  Defense wins this game and bears obvs have the better one.  If GB wins it will only be by a fg
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#18
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:15:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by metalbill:

packers defence is painful to watch, it's pathetic. and their lack of a running game well... i don't think the bears need to really worry about that much.

49ers may be a bit better, more complete than the bears right now, time will tell. packers got serious issues and the bears are more than capable of beating them thursday.

side note, Jennings missed practice (groin)

probably sit this one out, hate betting against the packers (homer) but i can see many reasons why guys would take the bears +6 even the m.l. bol man

The Bears are nowhere near the team that SF is.  SF has arguably the best DEF in the NFL and Rodgers still put up 22.  Tillman is out for CHI making Rodgers life a heck of a lot easier.

CHI beat Indy who without Luck would be worse than last years team and with Luck are still a crappy team with a good QB.  CHI travelling on a short week to Lambo after a tough loss.  CHI will only be in this game for the first half.  Then Rodgers takes over and shows why he's considered the best in the league.
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#19
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:52:41 AM
i agree - bears will run all over them and bears d is way better- bears for me
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#20
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:53:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BMWSLSMN:


The Bears are nowhere near the team that SF is.  SF has arguably the best DEF in the NFL and Rodgers still put up 22.  Tillman is out for CHI making Rodgers life a heck of a lot easier.

CHI beat Indy who without Luck would be worse than last years team and with Luck are still a crappy team with a good QB.  CHI travelling on a short week to Lambo after a tough loss.  CHI will only be in this game for the first half.  Then Rodgers takes over and shows why he's considered the best in the league.


This.

GB by two touchdowns.
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#21
Posted: 9/12/2012 9:57:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BMWSLSMN:


The Bears are nowhere near the team that SF is.  SF has arguably the best DEF in the NFL and Rodgers still put up 22.  Tillman is out for CHI making Rodgers life a heck of a lot easier.

CHI beat Indy who without Luck would be worse than last years team and with Luck are still a crappy team with a good QB.  CHI travelling on a short week to Lambo after a tough loss.  CHI will only be in this game for the first half.  Then Rodgers takes over and shows why he's considered the best in the league.


No he didn't.  Cobb ran one back.
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#22
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:03:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by thawv:



No he didn't.  Cobb ran one back.

Your absolutely right!!! I was typing faster than I was thinking GB put up 22.  Still believe this is a good spot for GB to beat the Bears.  Freeney was out after the first qrtr making an already crappy Indy def crappier.  CHI looked better than they are.
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#23
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:12:53 AM
Jennings probably won't play- 1 less receiver to worry about.

Green bay couldn't stop the run for garbage, couldn't stop anything actually. 

Bears are no SF, but still a great defense.  And against a rival, they aren't just going to lay down.  They smell blood and can get GB to start 0-2 would be huge.

Take them points +6 or buy a pt and get +7, this one will be close.
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#24
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:50:30 AM
While i dont believe in "reading lines", as that is sujective and could be intepreted either way, the one evident fact is that the packers defense was out of sync, needs time to practice and gel and now they are playing on a short week without practice against a team that can both run and pass the ball effectively.

The packers offensively cant run the ball right now and the bears pass rushers should hassle rogers all day long

bears should cover as long as cutler doesnt get too crazy and throw 3+ ints
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#25
Posted: 9/12/2012 10:54:19 AM
This line actually seems very tight to me. Packers are at home which is worth 3 points and then Aaron Rodgers and explosive offense equals another field goal. I honestly think this line is set to generate even action. My theory is that Vegas takes a stand on some games and sets trap lines on someand on some they just look for even action. I think most people would agree this game could go either way and it seems Vegas thinks the same with this line. I don't think theyre trying to trick anyone here. Id lean towards taking the points in this type of matchup but im gonna lay off bc it seems tight and i dont see a lot of value on either side.
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