Strategy: Primetime Games -- O/U

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Strategy: Primetime Games -- O/U
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/7/2012 10:43:13 AM
Since I'll be without power or cell coverage, I'm getting this out there now.  

SNF Primetime game is gonna be a no play for me.  I'm tempted to go against the 1st Half Under trend since the Saints D has been terrible and because I think Brees is gonna come out hot...  

SD @ NO - 1st Half 27 -- No Play.

I might not be around to even watch the game because I'll be devouring a couple of deep fried turkeys.  Happy Thanksgiving to the Canadian brothas.

Good luck on your plays.
TheSituation559 PM TheSituation559
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Posted: 10/7/2012 7:54:05 PM
That is a lot of points for an NFL game. Usually see it around 23.5 to 26.5. Might take the Under 27
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/8/2012 8:17:48 PM
Houston Texans/New York Jets Under 20 +102

This play makes me nervous but I can see the Jets defense playing tough from the start.  There's been a lot of talk about their issues after getting blown out, that usually fires up players a bit.

GL fellas. 


PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/8/2012 8:20:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheSituation559:

That is a lot of points for an NFL game. Usually see it around 23.5 to 26.5. Might take the Under 27
.  

The total was about right.  Kinda expected 26.5

I shoulda hit the over anyway since I didn't like the under, but really didn't have much time to think about the game so I laid off.  Saints defense is terrible and you had to think Brees was gonna come out and do anything he could to get the 1st win.  If I woulda been home, I probably woulda hit the over.
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/8/2012 10:23:00 PM
1st Half UNDER was garbage.  Wasn't expecting the Jets to score lol

Houston Texans/New York Jets Over 20 -105

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/11/2012 8:13:01 PM
Will update the stats later.  Rough week last week for yours truly.

Going against the grain tonight, I like the full game total to hit OVER 43.5 anyway.  Blitzburgh D is missing some starters, the Titans might be able to stay in this for a half if they wake up.

1H Total Points Over 21.5 for 1st Half -102

GL fellas!

Riceboi PM Riceboi
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Posted: 10/11/2012 8:24:20 PM
you have the last few NFL seasons tracked on the hit rate for 1st half unders and 2nd half overs?

Would appreciate the info, thanks
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/11/2012 8:29:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

you have the last few NFL seasons tracked on the hit rate for 1st half unders and 2nd half overs?

Would appreciate the info, thanks

Unfortunately I don't.  Played Proline for years, only really started betting online last year.  It was just something I noticed panned out quite often last year so I thought I'd track it as best I can.

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/11/2012 10:02:13 PM
1H Total Points Over 21.5 for 1st Half -102  

Already lookin at the 2nd Half OVER...  if it's 23.5 or under, I'm hittin it
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/11/2012 10:19:28 PM
Somehow managed to get it in at plus money.  

Pittsburgh Steelers/Tennessee Titans (O 21.5) for 2nd Half.+102

The game definitely slowed down in the 2nd quarter, but you can't count out Pittsburgh or Big Ben late in this game.  Both teams are taking shots down the field and if they clean it up a bit, we could have a couple of TDs in the 3rd quarter.

I can't help but feel that CJ?K is gonna break one...  

GL fellas!
FeedMeCappers PM FeedMeCappers
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Posted: 10/11/2012 10:29:43 PM
Great thread my man... I was on the over for the 1H myself.  I am a totals guy as well.  First time I have seen this thread all year.  Will be checking in with this very frequently.  GL the rest of the way... Congrats on the cash
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/11/2012 11:58:38 PM

Pittsburgh Steelers/Tennessee Titans (O 21.5) for 2nd Half.+102


Sorry about the hex post earlier.  I needed this one.  
 

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/12/2012 12:00:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FeedMeCappers:

Great thread my man... I was on the over for the 1H myself.  I am a totals guy as well.  First time I have seen this thread all year.  Will be checking in with this very frequently.  GL the rest of the way... Congrats on the cash

Thx bud.  I've done well betting the halves in the past year or two.  Just hope I can keep up all year.  

Riceboi PM Riceboi
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:52:28 AM
so you're just doing sunday night, monday night and thursday night games, correct?
Riceboi PM Riceboi
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Posted: 10/12/2012 2:54:13 AM
I wonder how often they both lose (the 1st half under and the 2nd half over) in one game or does it seem like one always hits most of the time?
LasVegasLord PM LasVegasLord
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Posted: 10/12/2012 3:24:52 AM
NHL lock out sucks brother.   BOL this Sunday
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/12/2012 7:54:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

so you're just doing sunday night, monday night and thursday night games, correct?

In this thread yes.  I'll probably start posting random Sunday picks as the season goes on.  

I do have money on the other games, just been really busy with fantasy football and road trips lately.
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/12/2012 7:58:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Riceboi:

I wonder how often they both lose (the 1st half under and the 2nd half over) in one game or does it seem like one always hits most of the time?

I'll be updating the splits tomorrow but it hasn't happened often.  The 1st Half UNDERS have been pretty good plays, especially on Thursdays.  Someone else asked about tracking Thursday, SNF and MNF separately and I'm gonna go back and have a look because it might be interesting.

The thing is, sometimes the matchups don't really make sense to follow this trend.  I think divisional games fit pretty well in general, but that Denver/Atlanta game was the complete opposite.  I won't bet this theory blindly because it doesn't always make sense to.  Sometimes the total plays into as well.  Always gotta pick your spots, like anything else.

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/12/2012 8:01:47 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LasVegasLord:

NHL lock out sucks brother.   BOL this Sunday

Yes it does.  Sucks big time bro.  I think I even mentioned hockey being around the corner in one of your threads a while ago.  Kinda spaced out on the lockout haha.  Or maybe it was my subconscious being optimistic.  

Hopefully they get a partial season in.  I just can't imagine they won't get it done.  I think both sides realize deep down that they can't do that to the fans right now.

GL this weekend and the rest of the NFL season brotha!  
choiOi PM choiOi
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Posted: 10/12/2012 10:53:12 PM
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/13/2012 8:43:43 PM
Just updating the stats.  The last few games have put a dent in the win percentage so far this year...  especially that Texans/Jets game.  The SD/NO game was pretty tough too but the 1st Half OVER should have been the play.  

1st Half UNDER -- 10-6 (Cincy/Balt, DEN/ATL, Pats/Ravens, SD/NO, HOU/NYJ, Pitt/Tenn being the losers)

2nd Half OVER --- 8-7 (SD/OAK, CHI/GB, DEN/ATL, NYG/CAR, Zona/STL, SD/NO, HOU/NYJ were the OVER losers.  Packers/Seahawks omitted, I think it was a push but I didn't play it and can't find the line)

Total:  18-13 on the season if you followed it blindly.  Last week was pretty rough.  That Jets game caught me and put a dent into the overall success of this trend.

Potentially 23-8 --  if you didn't get caught too badly in a couple of games.  Specifically the DEN/ATL, GB/CHI, ZONA/STL and Pitt/Tenn games.

More to come.  GL tomorrow fellas.
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/13/2012 9:33:16 PM
Just looking at what has happened so far, some random thoughts that might be worth keeping in mind.

- The bulk of the 1st half OVERS that hit weren't divisional games.  DEN/ATL, Pats/Ravens, SD/NO, HOU/NYJ, Pitt/Tenn.  And that makes sense.  The divisional games should be better ends to fall in the 1st half UNDER trend since they know each well.
- When the 1st half OVER hits, the 2nd half UNDER looks like a better bet.  Sometimes it might be obvious if one team is up and is looking to run out the clock, but I still think the 2nd half OVER will hit it's stride late in the year.  
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/14/2012 10:10:22 PM
Really late again.  Losing track of time...

2H Total Points Over 23.5 for 2nd Half -120 
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
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Posted: 10/14/2012 10:11:54 PM
Almost hit the 2nd half under after thinking about what's been happening when the 1st half OVER hits...  but without Cushing, DJ Smith, Raji...  there's still plenty of room for points.

GL
FeedMeCappers PM FeedMeCappers
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Posted: 10/15/2012 2:33:27 PM
You leaning under 1H tonight?  Thats the way I am leaning with a possible play on the under for the game.  hard not to take a monday night under when the total is at 47.  GL tonight
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