Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 2 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Strategy: Primetime Games -- O/U
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#26
Posted: 9/19/2012 6:37:00 PM
Finally getting this out fairly early this week.  Here's the split after Monday:

1st Half UNDER -- 5-2 (Cincy/Balt and DEN/ATL being the losers)
2nd Half OVER --- 4-3 (SD/OAK, CHI/GB and DEN/ATL were the OVER losers)

Overall:  9-5 is the record on the halves.  But I'm really 11-3 by doing the right thing on Monday night.

Obviously, I went against this "strategy" on Monday.  Playing the 1st Half OVER on Monday paid.  Playing the 2nd Half UNDER also paid.  Like I said in the original post, you have to pick your spots.  Just like anything else.  

I am not a seasoned bettor by any means, but those felt like fairly easy bets to make.  I didn't post it because I was hammered with company over, but the 2nd Half UNDER 24.5 felt like the right play the way Manning was going.  Atlanta had a lead and they weren't forced to keep throwing and their defense was playing well. Although, Peyton got them pretty close to another score.  William Moore was all over the place!

On to tomorrow night...
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#27
Posted: 9/19/2012 6:44:45 PM
GMEN @ Carolina.

New York Giants/Carolina Panthers 20-September-2012 
1H Total Points Under 24.5 for 1st Half -102

Going back to the well.  I really like the 1st Half UNDERS in these Thursday night games as a general rule.  And at almost even money, I like this even more.

Nicks didn't make the trip, Bradshaw is extremely questionable and Andre Brown might be carrying the load.  It'll be tough to get everyone on the offense on the same page this week.  

I'm expecting the Giants to play tight defense (as tight as possible anyway) and hope to squeak one out.  They'll have their work cut out, but I think Coughlin realizes that he can't get into a shootout with Cam.  They'll focus on Steve Smith and LaFell and hope that will be enough to hang in and win a close one.  But I kinda like Carolina to get the job done.

Definitely throwing a teaser together with Carolina as a dog and the UNDER.

GL fellas.  
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#28
Posted: 9/19/2012 6:59:42 PM
Actually, correction.

The overall record on this is 9-5, but I'd really be 10-2 since I didn't play the CHI/GB game at all.  1st Half UNDER was pretty juicy and there's no way I would have played the 2nd Half OVER in that game.  Problem was, I was too hammered to even place a bet in that game lol


quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#29
Posted: 9/20/2012 9:57:53 PM
1H Total Points Under 24.5 for 1st Half -102  

Although, that was pretty scary.  Panthers D sucked behind.  The guy covering Barden is scared out of his mind right now.

I'm hitting the 2nd Half OVER and keeping with the trend.  At some point, Cam is gonna get the ball in the end zone.  He might even help make a game out of this.  If not, the Giants might cover 24 by themselves.  Good luck

2H Total Points Over 23.5 for 2nd Half -103

quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#30
Posted: 9/23/2012 8:19:03 PM
New England Patriots/Baltimore Ravens (U 24.5) for 1st Half.-121

Still sticking with the trend.  It's 6-2 on the season and sets up for a solid bet with the injuries the Pats are dealing with.  We'll see if Welker steps up and more importantly...  if Brady looks his way.

I'll update the total record in a bit.
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#31
Posted: 9/23/2012 8:33:21 PM
The Giants game was a bit of a mindfu*k.  There was so much offensive potential, but we were limited by Ramses Barden.  Between the Cam Pick in the redzone and the muffed punt soon after, the word fix entered my mind.  On to tonight...

1st Half UNDER -- 6-2 (Cincy/Balt and DEN/ATL being the losers)
2nd Half OVER --- 4-4 (SD/OAK, CHI/GB and DEN/ATL were the OVER losers)

I'm on the UNDER, as posted above.  And I think this is another good bet to hit the 2nd half OVER if the line isn't 26.5 or higher.

GL tonight fellas.
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#32
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:12:33 PM
I'll update the stats later...  not that anyone gives a rats behind.

I played the UNDER 1st Half...  going against the logic I started in this thread...  playing the UNDER in the 2nd Half.

Alt Spread:  2H Total Points Under 22.5 for 2nd Half +100
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#33
Posted: 10/1/2012 8:20:04 PM
Still haven't update the stats...  I suck.

Stickin with the 1st Half UNDER

Chicago Bears/Dallas Cowboys (U 20.5) for 1st Half. +100
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#34
Posted: 10/1/2012 10:09:03 PM
1st Half UNDER hits again  

Sticking to my guns, wanted to go with the 2H UNDER but I'm hittin the over.

Chicago Bears/Dallas Cowboys (O 20.5) for 2nd Half.-113



Both teams were moving the ball pretty well in the 2nd quarter.  Could easily have another pick 6 tho.  GL!
quote
Hockeyjock
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Hockeyjock
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 861
Location: Hong Kong
#35
Posted: 10/1/2012 10:13:00 PM
GL...I think it will be over but i'm on Bears ML...


haha, Hestor TD as i'm typing!
quote
whodat09 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
whodat09
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 549
Location: United States
#36
Posted: 10/1/2012 10:16:40 PM

quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#37
Posted: 10/1/2012 10:32:17 PM
At least one pick 6  

  Romo

quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#38
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:25:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PhishBrigade:

1st Half UNDER hits again    


Chicago Bears/Dallas Cowboys (O 20.5) for 2nd Half.-113



Both teams were moving the ball pretty well in the 2nd quarter.  Could easily have another pick 6 tho.  GL!

1H - UNDER 

2H - OVER  


quote
Hockeyjock
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
Hockeyjock
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2003
Posts: 861
Location: Hong Kong
#39
Posted: 10/1/2012 11:35:27 PM
I really do like this system, but there are always other factors.  Me and my friends have been talking about this strategy  a lot for primetime games,  Seems like teams come out very tentative against a big rival(especially Divisional games) during Prime Time. So I tend to watch for it to be a good situation between teams that have sold D's and quaterbacks who can air it out later in the game after they try to establish some running game in the first half.  If the fist half stay under but there are signs of ball movement towards the half...then you jump on the 2nd half..


quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#40
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:05:16 AM
Finally updated the stats so far.  So far, so good if you've been betting it.  Especially the 1st Half UNDERS.  They've been money in primetime games!!  This Thursday looks like a good bet to hit already.  

2nd Half OVERS have been hitting too.  As long as you didn't get tripped up in the Denver/Atlanta game or the Bears/Packers game...  you'd be doing quite well.

1st Half UNDER -- 9-3 (Cincy/Balt, DEN/ATL and Pats/Ravens being the losers)

2nd Half OVER --- 7-4 (SD/OAK, CHI/GB and DEN/ATL were the OVER losers.  Packers/Seahawks omitted, I think it was a push but I didn't play it and can't find the line)

Overall, this is blindly hitting at an 16-7 clip.  Potential record of 19-4 if you made the right moves in DEN/ATL and CHI/GB games.  
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#41
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:09:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hockeyjock:

I really do like this system, but there are always other factors.  Me and my friends have been talking about this strategy  a lot for primetime games,  Seems like teams come out very tentative against a big rival(especially Divisional games) during Prime Time. So I tend to watch for it to be a good situation between teams that have sold D's and quaterbacks who can air it out later in the game after they try to establish some running game in the first half.  If the fist half stay under but there are signs of ball movement towards the half...then you jump on the 2nd half..



Thanks bud.  I don't know how much of a system it even is.  And for all I know, this might be ridiculously old news to the old timers.  But what the hell, I'm gonna track it anyway.  These Thursday night games are definitely helping pad the stats for the 1st half unders.

And I agree.  You have to pick your spots.  The Denver/ATL game and the Bears/Packers game were two games that stood out where it didn't make much sense to follow this trend/strategy.

Too bad we aren't getting ready to watch the Habs play.  Hope they get this figured out and get a shortened season out of it.  At least we've got football to keep us busy tho.

quote
JBecks12 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
JBecks12
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 607
Location: Georgia
#42
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:13:25 AM
Thanks for keeping up with the stats and posting your picks. Have you considered adding:

- Thurs night NFL
- Sunday night NFL

Lots of similarities. Only major NFL game on TV. I wonder if you will find the same trends there. If so, more betting opportunities than just 1 game a week.

Still, its better than most successful cappers. Thanks and Good luck.
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#43
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:39:40 PM
Not sure I understand your question. The total includes all 3 primetime games each week.

Figured it was worth tracking since the Thursday night games were added for the entire season.
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#44
Posted: 10/4/2012 7:11:49 PM
Another Thursday night game, another short week for a couple of teams.  We all know Arizona's defense is legit, and the Rams defense has improved compared to where they were a couple of years ago.  So I'm sticking with this little trend.  Primetime 1st Half UNDERS are 9-3 on the season.  I like my chances.  The fact that it's at even money is a little surprising and maybe a little cause for concern, but I just can't see these teams blowing up early tonight.  

Arizona Cardinals/St. Louis Rams Under 19.5 +100

GL tonight fellas!  

quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#45
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:08:45 PM
Arizona Cardinals/St. Louis Rams Under 19.5 +100   

The 1H UNDER hits again!  I like it.

2nd Half plays:

Arizona Cardinals/St. Louis Rams (U 17.5) for 2nd Half.+102


Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs St. Louis Rams for 2nd Half.-109
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#46
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:12:20 PM
I like Arizona to put up a fight in the 2nd half.  But I also think the defense on both sides will keep it under 3 TDs.  I can't help but feel that Patrick Peterson is gonna bust one, but I think both teams are gonna be punting tonight.

Going against the 2nd Half trend for the 2nd time in 4 weeks.  I could be wrong, but I think the full game total was low for a reason.  Jeff Fisher is gonna do his best to keep this Peterson thing from happening...

GL fellas  


  








LVL?  Where u at brotha?  lol
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#47
Posted: 10/4/2012 10:33:01 PM
Just a quick update on the 1st Half stats:

1st Half UNDER -- 10-3 (Cincy/Balt, DEN/ATL and Pats/Ravens being the losers)

Again I'll say, the DEN/ATL was an easy bet to make to go 11-2 on 1st halves.
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#48
Posted: 10/4/2012 11:36:32 PM

Arizona Cardinals/St. Louis Rams (U 17.5) for 2nd Half.+102

   
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) vs St. Louis Rams for 2nd Half.-109

     
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#49
Posted: 10/5/2012 7:30:31 PM
Updating the split:

1st Half UNDER -- 10-3 (Cincy/Balt, DEN/ATL and Pats/Ravens being the losers)

2nd Half OVER --- 7-5 (SD/OAK, CHI/GB, DEN/ATL and Zona/STL were 4 of the OVER losers.  Packers/Seahawks omitted, I think it was a push but I didn't play it and can't find the line)

Total:  17-8 on the season if you followed it blindly.

However, anyone could easily be sitting at 20-5 on the season betting the halves in primetime with a little common sense in the CHI/GB, DEN/ATL and Zona/STL games by hitting those 2nd Half UNDERS.  That's not to shabby
quote
PhishBrigade
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1164
Location: Canada
#50
Posted: 10/5/2012 7:34:58 PM
Correction:  I keep forgetting to add the GMen/Panthers game to the 2nd Half losers.

1st Half UNDER -- 10-3 (Cincy/Balt, DEN/ATL and Pats/Ravens being the losers)

2nd Half OVER --- 7-5 (SD/OAK, CHI/GB, DEN/ATL, NYG/CAR and Zona/STL were the OVER losers.  Packers/Seahawks omitted, I think it was a push but I didn't play it and can't find the line)

Total:  17-8 on the season if you followed it blindly.

Potentially 20-5 if you used yer noggin
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 2 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.