Strategy: Primetime Games -- O/U

Forum: NFL Betting Page 1 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Strategy: Primetime Games -- O/U
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/7/2012 10:46:15 PM
Hope everyone is good and ready for a profitable season.  As much as I love the summer, September brings regular season football.

I was thinking about tracking the 1st half under - 2nd have OVER theory for primetime games.  You still have to pick your spots, but I did well on this last year.  I didn't post any plays on Wed (Didn't even log into covers... my bad), but I called a 7-3 1st half score.  Congrats to the over betters in the 2nd half.  Lipps was on it as usual.

Since the primetime games often have divisional game matchups, this strategy seemed to pan out a lot last year.  Especially at the end of the season and in the playoffs.

This week:

Pitt @ Denver
Cincy @ Balt
SD @ Oak

I can see all those games being low scoring in the 1st half.  And I think they are all good candidates to open up a bit in the 2nd half ala the Cowgirls/GMen game.  

This weeks matchups:  Peyton shaking off the rust, and Pitt likely won't be in sync.  Especially early.  Wallace can't possibly be in mid-season form and the Pitt running game is all over the place.

Cincy and Balt, I'm less confident in that matchup, but I'll wait until I see Flacco run this no huddle offensive juggernaut before taking a 1st half over.  In this divisional matchup, nobody wants to lose this game.  

And finally SD @ OAK.  Neither team has been practicing with all their starters on offense.  Mathews won't play and I don't trust Ronnie Brown.  The Raider WRs are a bit a of wildcard in this one.  The biggest wildcards are Gates and DMC.  Those two could screw over the under bet in the 1st half, but I'm expecting a tight game to start.

Thoughts?  Who's with me?
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/9/2012 8:22:10 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers/Denver Broncos 9-September-2012 5:25 PM PST
1H Total Points Under 23 for 1st Half -117

I like it.  Loving the over in the 2nd half already...
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/9/2012 9:58:41 PM
1st Half Under 23   

2nd Half OVER 21.5 -127

I think the line at Pinnacle opened at -123 and raced up to -133 in a hurry.  Now sitting at -128.

Hit dat garbage!!


pinballwizard PM pinballwizard
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 11048
Canada
 
pinballwizard
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/9/2012 10:01:31 PM
21.5?  I'm seeing 23.5.    
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/9/2012 10:15:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pinballwizard:

21.5?  I'm seeing 23.5.    

Pinny had two lines, the 21.5 and the O/U 23 at about -117 for the OVER

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/9/2012 11:27:43 PM
2H Total Points Pittsburgh Steelers/Denver Broncos (O 21.5) for 2nd Half.  -127   

This bet is 4-0 on the season.  First half UNDER, 2nd half OVER.  
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/9/2012 11:30:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PhishBrigade:

2H Total Points Pittsburgh Steelers/Denver Broncos (O 21.5) for 2nd Half.  -127   

This bet is 4-0 on the season.  First half UNDER, 2nd half OVER.  

^^^ That includes the Wednesday opener which I didn't post but I'm still tracking it.
terpnskins PM terpnskins
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 274
 
terpnskins
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/10/2012 12:59:04 PM
Congrats buddy - I tailed and did the same bets!
Posted using a mobile device.
jerzeyboy56 PM jerzeyboy56
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 4295
United States
 
jerzeyboy56
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/10/2012 1:13:49 PM
good work, i like the angle looking forward to more posts

LasVegasLord PM LasVegasLord
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 16747
Nevada
 
LasVegasLord
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/10/2012 1:27:22 PM
How's it going buddy?  Good to see you and have a great season.
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/10/2012 7:29:26 PM
Cincinnati Bengals/Baltimore Ravens (U 20.5) for 1st Half. +104

I'm a little late, but I'm definitely on this play tonight.  As well as the SD OAK game, even though I like the OVER to hit on the full game O/U 46.5/47  -- Whatever was available.  I'm not keeping track of my personal record in this thread, just the theory and lines.

terpnskins  --  Congrats buddy - I tailed and did the same bets!

Thanks bud.  Glad it hit for someone other than me.  


jerzeyboy56 -- good work, i like the angle looking forward to more posts

Thanks dude.  It's definitely not something that I've put a ton of time into.  Just something I noticed was pretty successful for me over half the time.  Let's see what happens.  


LasVegasLord  -- How's it going buddy?  Good to see you and have a great season.


Hey bud!  Good to see ya on the boards.  Good luck this year to you as well.  Pucks is right away the corner too!  

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/10/2012 7:52:54 PM
As mentioned above...

San Diego Chargers/Oakland Raiders (U 23.5) for 1st Half. -104

Gonna need some help for the Cincy/Balt under here..  10-3 already.  Baltimore is looking good.  
SCROG PM SCROG
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 3347
California
 
SCROG
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/10/2012 8:01:35 PM
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/10/2012 11:48:12 PM
Well...  so far this lil strategy is 6-1 with the lone loser being the Bengals/Ravens 1st half.  The Bengals did everything they could to make this go 7-0 by going for it on 4th downs, but BJGE finally punched it in.

Already liking the OVER in the 2nd half of this Raiders/Chargers game...  gotta see the line.  Should be 23.5 at the most right?
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/11/2012 12:00:37 AM
2H Total Points Over 23.5 for 2nd Half -124

A little juicy but I still like it.  Good luck OVER bettors!
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/13/2012 8:12:57 PM
Sorry..  I'm late again.

I'm laying off the 1st UNDER 26.5 because I didn't like the juice.  Still think it's a decent play, but I'm just going with the UNDER 50.5 full total.

I'll update the stats later.  I'm still gonna track this for shits and giggles.

GL with your plays.  
Faraz_Jaka PM Faraz_Jaka
Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 49
California
 
Faraz_Jaka
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/13/2012 8:15:53 PM
Like it. Gl
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/13/2012 8:23:24 PM
So far, the split is as follows:

1st Half UNDER -- 3-1 (Cincy/Balt being the lone loser)
2nd Half OVER --- 3-1 (SD/OAK being the lone OVER loser)

Total is 6-2.  Not bad.  Just gotta keep on keepin on.
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/13/2012 9:14:07 PM
I think this might be a good Thursday night strategy this year.  The juice tonight was -126, might have been a bit better earlier in the week tho.  

With a short week for many teams this year, I think a low scoring/conservative 1st half could be a nice trend  
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/16/2012 8:09:47 PM
Alright, I'm finally getting this up with a few minutes to spare.

Gonna ride with the 1st Half UNDER again.

Detroit Lions/San Francisco 49ers (U 23.5) for 1st Half. -114

Also have a 1 unit 7pt teaser:

Detroit Lions/San Francisco 49ers (O 39)
Detroit Lions vs San Francisco 49ers (+0)/ PK

Also leaning UNDER 46 for the full game total but not quite ready to pull the trigger.  GL fellas!  
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/16/2012 8:41:31 PM
Forgot to update the split after Thursday night.  I didn't play anything on Thursday cuz I hit the bars at halftime.  Wouldn't have played the 2nd Half OVER anyway after watching how that game was playing out.

To recap Thursday:  The 1st Half UNDER hit again, the 2nd Half OVER did not.

1st Half UNDER -- 4-1 (Cincy/Balt being the lone loser)
2nd Half OVER --- 3-2 (SD/OAK and CHI/GB were the losing OVER bets)

Overall:  7-3 on the season.  1st Half UNDERS have been great bets in primetime.  The 2nd Half OVER hasn't been great, but like I said...  that CHI/GB game wasn't shaping up for a good 2nd Half OVER bet anyway.

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/16/2012 10:01:01 PM
Primetime 1st Half UNDERS keep on hitting.  It was close but I'll take the 14-6 score.  

1st Half UNDERS are now 5-1 so far this year in primetime games.

Second half line at 22.5 -- I think I'm gonna hit that.

PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/17/2012 12:11:09 AM
Some late 4th quarter magic saved the 2nd Half OVER tonight.  I thought that bet was toast once the 4th quarter started.

Splits:

1st Half UNDER -- 5-1 (Cincy/Balt being the lone loser)
2nd Half OVER --- 4-2 (SD/OAK and CHI/GB were the OVER losers)

Total:  9-3 on the season.  Not too shabby.  Loving the 1st Half UNDER bets....  except tomorrow nights game with DENV/ATL. 

That one has me a bit nervous.  Pinny has the line at 25.5 with +104 on the UNDER.  Looks tempting, I'm gonna sleep on it tho.

Cheers fellas.

TheSituation559 PM TheSituation559
Joined: Feb 2012
Posts: 3557
 
TheSituation559
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/17/2012 12:22:20 AM
Let us know I like this strategy
PhishBrigade PM PhishBrigade
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 1200
Canada
 
PhishBrigade
Participation Meter
Posted: 9/17/2012 7:10:33 PM
Alright, so it appears the line has dropped on the 1st Half UNDER.  Pinny has it at U25.5 at -110...  it was plus money last night.

Since I like the OVER for the full game total, I kinda like the 1st Half OVER as well at EVEN money +100 tonight.  Going against this little primetime theory tonight of 1st Half UNDERS.

Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been coming out fast, and I'm looking for them to set the tone tonight.  

The question I was asking myself today was:  Can this get to 17-10 by halftime?  And I'm going with an emphatic YES.

Playing the 1st Half OVER, the O52 and a 7 point teaser with DEN +10/OVER 43.5.

GL fellas.  
Forum: NFL Betting Page 1 of 5  1 2 3 4 5  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.