Posted: 8/31/2012 6:22:36 PM
did some research and only 8 rookie qbs have started since 2005.
what i did was take the rookie qb club record from year before and took the club record of who they were playing in their first game.
For all except one game the rookie club team had fewer wins, so i found the difference between the win totals.
If the difference between the clubs was 4 or more the home team won and covered (2-0)
If the difference between the clubs was 2 games or less the rookie club covered the spread (4-0), in the one game where the rookie club had a better record they won and covered (1-0).
So now for the info everyone is really looking for, using this system for the games for this season here is what we find.
MIA (6-10) HOU (10-6) - DIFFERENCE HOU +4
CLE (4-12) PHI (8-8) - DIFFERENCE PHI +4
IND (2-14) CHI (8-8) - DIFFERENCE CHI +6
WAS (5-11) NO (13-3) DIFFERENCE NO +8
SEA (7-9) ARI (8-8) DIFFERENCE ARI +1
since i could only backtest to 2005 there are some parts i dont have any info for, SEA will be the first rookie FAV i have seen, and also PHI will be the first ROAD FAV with a difference of 4+ games.
So in ranking the plays from this system:
1. NO -9.5
2. CHI -9.5
3. HOU -10
The other two games have nothing to backup plays.