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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 1
glyde69
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#51
Posted: 9/6/2012 1:18:53 PM
Nice hit with Dallas. I liked them, but couldn't pull the trigger.

I like your Saints play. Boggles my mind that the line dropped to 7.
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#52
Posted: 9/6/2012 2:18:29 PM
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#53
Posted: 9/6/2012 5:24:36 PM
Nice reading material. Thanks for sharing your well thought out opinions as always, and goodluck in the upcoming season.


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#54
Posted: 9/6/2012 6:20:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Beautiful game by the Cowboys tonight. I have this group Over 8.5 wins as well and it was nice to see everything coming together. They have that great balance of experience and high-end youthful talent. They have the potential to be very good in both areas on both sides of the ball if everything continues to come together. They went in there tonight and garbage on the Giants. Yes, they are in a tough division and will surely have 2-3 typical WTF Cowboy games but this is one of the best 3-4 teams in the league IMO and will be a factor deep into January.


Nice pick, capped perfectly.

After a huge win, what do you think of Dallas in week 2 playing in Seattle? Possible letdown?
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#55
Posted: 9/6/2012 7:06:37 PM
Nice call on the Boys buddy...

strong leans to Saints -7/Chi -9.5/Mia-Hou Under 43....
slight leans to Kc ML/Tb ML/Ari ML...I think 2 of those 3 home doggies hit.

also locked in a Chi -2.5/Saints PK tease...like both to cover but see value in the 2 team tease also.


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#56
Posted: 9/6/2012 7:09:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Nice hit with Dallas. I liked them, but couldn't pull the trigger.

I like your Saints play. Boggles my mind that the line dropped to 7.


Saints

Favorite play this week....rookie QB making his first start against a pissed off Saints team in that noisy dome...recipe for disaster IMO
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#57
Posted: 9/8/2012 9:37:01 AM

0-1 ( -1.1 units)

Damn Giants get tackled at the 1 on an interception and fail to punch it in on the GL, settling for a TD and falling 4 points from the over.  Going to be that kind of year.

PATRIOTS -6 (1 UNITS)

Hate to say it as a Jets fan but the Patriots might be as good on offense this season as they were in 2007.  They are going to be very hard to contain this season and nearly impossible to shut down.  NE run defense was suprising strong last season and I just can't see Jake Locker beat them through the air without Britt.  I think after the dust clears NE will be the talk of the NFL. 

SAINTS -8 (1 UNITS)

I agree with almost everything that was posted and now that the suspensions are reversed I think the Saints are even more motivated to go out there and make some noise.

PANTHERS -3 (1 UNITS)

Bucs are banged up and DeWilliams and Tolbert should more than compensate for the loss of Stewart.  Lot of talk about Freeman emerging at QB but Cam is the real deal.  Should be a close one (and part of me just wants to root on Cam) but I think the Panthers are the better team here

EAGLES -10.5 (1 UNITS)

Something about that .5 scares the garbage out of me but I think this is going to be the year the Eagles breakout and play like the team we thought they would be last year.  Rookie QB against that pash rush, Rookie RB who has been banged up all preseason. They might struggle to get 10 points.  While CLE defense is solid Vick and Shady should put points on the board.

I see the Jets are a favorite on this thread.  As a general rule I never bet on the Jets since I am a Jet fan and when they lose I feel like I lost twice.  However I am w/Andy.  The offense will struggle and it is the huge hole at RT that is the cause.  Sanchez is not an effective passer under pressure (not many QB are to be fair) and Tebow is not Michael Vick.  If they can establish the run and stay on the field for chunks of time and rest their defense which looks very very good, then I think they should win this game by a TD at most.  If we get a lot of 3 and outs and turnovers the D will get shreaded.  Key in this one is the OLine and Greene.

GL Everyone

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#58
Posted: 9/8/2012 2:38:45 PM

Got a busy night ahead of me, so this might be my only time to post. 

Saints -8.  Snoozed on line, but I'm confident they cover anyway.  With or without some key defensive members(Hawthrone, Lofton, Greer).  Nothing really to say that hasn't been already said. 

Jets -3/-2.5.  I locked Jets originally when it hit 3, but it was one of those "circle" games and 100 was the limit.  Added another 50 at -2.5 to complete the unit(and make me feel warm inside that I didn't get totally pawned on that line).  Defense shuts down the Bills and grinds out an easy win.

Arizona +3.  I know Seattle getting a lot of hype(deservedly so as they did some good things last year, built it into this preseason, and also possibly stumbled onto a good QB), but rookie QB making his first start on the road LAYING points??  Not my bag.  Besides that, I can make an argument Arizona is the all around better team.  Problems at QB hurt that argument, but I like their DL(all fat mean muhfuckas), their LB are all aggressive fast guys(I don't think Wilson has ever seen the speed these guys are gonna bring to the table), and the secondary is a decent group of veterans.  Arizona has a special teams edge too(stop me if I'm wrong; left my notes at work).  I'll take the home dog with who I believe is the better team.

Cincinnati +7.  I don't think the Bungals are getting the respect they deserve after last year.  With a rookie QB, they came pretty close to moving deep into the playoffs.  They return a similar squad.  They have the CB's to disrupt Flacco and his no huddle horseshit, they have a mean DL, a few weapons for Dalton to work with(Dalton another guy who gets no respect; all he did in TCU and Cincy was WIN).  I'll take the TD and hope this doesn't turn into a friggin shootout.

Denver -2.  Read Andy's initial post.  That says it all.  Pitt due for a down year, Big Ben talking about missing the game if his wife has baby, defense a year older, key injuries, blah blah blah. 

All offseason, I had GB circled.  I was planning on letting it drop down to the -4 area once the SF hype started, and then pounding them.......can't seem to pull the trigger though. 

Lots of big dogs this week and I have a feeling a bunch of them cover.  Looking at them though, it's tough to pick with all the baby QB's out there.  People see Brady, Ben, Matt Ryan, Newton and think that all young QB magically are players right off the bat.  That's not the case though.  QB's need time to mature and let the game come to them, so putting my money on ANY of them is bothersome.  First look was the HOME team, but Cleveland just looks like a festering infected wound. 

Miami +13 is intriuhing.  I can see this being a 23-13 kind of game.  Rams +9 or so is also interesting as Bradford has shown some potential before(unlike the rooks getting trotted out everywhere else).  Bradford has an okay running game to work with, Gibson and Amendola are serviceable, and coach Fisher brings some stability behind the scenes.  Lions can score(in bunches), but no one ever said their defense was anything special.  Bradford puts up 24, and that might be enough for the cover.

Tennessee I liked initally, but I'm staying away.  Too much of a "wise guy" pick for me.  It's like that piece of garbage horse that takes insane money in the Kentucky Derby each year that always shits the bed.  Bunch of braindead fools that THINK they are sharp because they are going against the public, and it rarely works out.  That what the Titans feel like to me.  Some wise guy pick.  I ain't friggin with Tom Brady. 

Looking at JAX +3.5/4 as well.  Jax very sneakily had a good defense last year.  Considering how putrid the offense was, their overall numbers were more than impressive.  The superior dfefense in a game like this might set the tone and cruise. 

Anyway GL to all.  Jets, Saints, Denver, Zona, and Cincy are all locked and loaded.  Might add one of those dogs tomorrwo(most likely Jax or St Lou), but card is mostly intact.  Andy great thread as always.

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#59
Posted: 9/8/2012 3:46:12 PM
 Good start Mac-----------

I'm on the Broncos this week and I'm glad to see it's part of your ticket 
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#60
Posted: 9/8/2012 5:23:14 PM
 mac

Like the Broncos but I'll probably be on the Skins.

BOL on your plays 
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#61
Posted: 9/8/2012 6:41:39 PM
If I was peyton manning, after I beat Pitt tomorrow Id tell Mike Tomlin to go get his friggin shine box!
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#62
Posted: 9/8/2012 7:21:57 PM
Thanks for the write up. Happens to be my best play for this week. My thinking there is:

#1: Denver's defense is perhaps one of the best in the league

#2: ditto your thoughts on Pitt's offensive woes

#3: Pitt's D is long in the tooth.

Playing 5 units on Denver @ a pick 'em

Playing un/44 5 units

BOL & thanks again 
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#63
Posted: 9/8/2012 8:01:27 PM

Thanks for the extensive right ups. It's greatly appreciated. I've got 2.2 units on a three team teaser.

Houston -2.5
Philadelphia +.5
N.O. +2.5

You guys pretty well covered most of the salient points on these games.

Like you guys I'm looking at the JETS as the line has been driven down to 2.5 from 6.0. Just off memory I remember reading that the JETS are 7-1 SUP against the BILLS and have won all those games by more than 3 points. LY the Bills were 9.5 dogs in NY but this year are going off around 2.5. Really, has this match up swung by a touchdown so quickly. I think Mario Williams will make everyone on the BUF defense better but it's early and the BILLS are still implementing a new defensive system. This should be a very interesting game.

If you want to talk about teams regressing, how about the LIONS. It seems as an organization they lack maturity and might have a tough time duplicating their success of last year. If I was going to play one of those DOGS tomorrow I'd look at the RAMS. The Lions are banged up in the secondary, which isn't their strength, and you should check the status of Delmas and Houston. Just the fact they brought in Drayton Florence this week and were thinking about starting him should tell you about their DB depth.

Anyways, I gotta run. Good luck on the season and once again thanks a lot for taking the time to produce the detailed right ups.

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#64
Posted: 9/9/2012 12:28:31 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Nice call on the Boys buddy...

strong leans to Saints -7/Chi -9.5/Mia-Hou Under 43....
slight leans to Kc ML/Tb ML/Ari ML...I think 2 of those 3 home doggies hit.

also locked in a Chi -2.5/Saints PK tease...like both to cover but see value in the 2 team tease also.




Hey buddy nice to see you back hope you had a good summer.

GL this season.
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#65
Posted: 9/9/2012 12:31:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by REMYREVERE:

0-1 ( -1.1 units)

Damn Giants get tackled at the 1 on an interception and fail to punch it in on the GL, settling for a TD and falling 4 points from the over.  Going to be that kind of year.



Enjoyed the thoughts on the game Remy but my goodness the lines! Can't you do any better than those?

GL regardless buddy.
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#66
Posted: 9/9/2012 12:55:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Got a busy night ahead of me, so this might be my only time to post. 



Great start to the year with the thoughts bro.

Jets or nothing just based on how the line is going and I actually envision the game playing out just like you say maybe even with Greene finally waking up but I just can't bring myself to lay points with that team in any capacity at the moment.

With you on Zona as well for the same reasons. Rookie QB laying points is an autofade for me. Plus, like we've already discussed Arizona's defense is way under the radar and may be just as good as Seattle and that to me is the biggest key to the game. Skelton + garbage o-line is a concern but so is the fact Seattle has no receivers. I mean have you seen this unit? Yikes. Nice grab on the 3, I'm still holding out hope.

Haha we'll have to agree to disagree on the Bengals. Put me in the Dalton non-believer camp. Smart guy who can manage a game but I don't think he's much more than that. I've done a complete 180 on the Ravens. I thought they would be way down this season but I really like what they are doing offensively and call me crazy but Ron Jaworski is right Joe Flacco has the strongest arm in the NFL. I watched the Ravens in preseason and he can flat out rifle the pigskin. The defense has some losses and age up front but I saw something Bill Polian said the other day about this team and that is when you have cover corners you trust you can scheme entirely differently, disguise coverages, and design complex blitz packages. The Jets do it all the time and the Ravens have 3 guys who are developing really well at CB.

Man Miami is a hold your nose bet. No way can I bet a 3-13 team in Week 1, no problem betting garbage after a few weeks but not so early. I agree it should be low scoring which favors the Fish if they can manage anything offensively.

Really been looking hard at New England the last few days. There is value just based on the line drop. I agree completely with your take as well. The go-out-on-a-limb/hero guys/trap line believers/guys scared of the mythical creature named Vegas always try to predict the year New England falls off but they always come out and throttle teams. Last year a scrappy Miami team getting points at home on MNF with a good defense was their pick but 600+ yards and 38 points later it was a laugher. Two seasons ago in the opener the Pats were only -4 or -5 at home to a Bengals team that just made the playoffs and that game was over after the 1st quarter as NE put up 38 again. This year their argument is the Super Bowl hangover (a stat that has been beat to death so much that it will most surely come to an end) and the Pats O-line. Funny that Brady played one half of football in the preseason with an o-line with guys off the street against Tampa and everyone makes a big deal out of it. Mankins and Vollmer are healthy and back and this group should be fine. Tennessee's defensive front is dogshit. They were horrible rushing the passer last season and won't be much better this year. Brady has looked ordinary against good front 7's and when facing pressure lately but this Titans group has neither. There is offensive talent in Nashville at the skill positions but I saw Jake Locker in preseason and I saw him at Washington and he still sucks. Think NE rolls here. I'll see where this number is in the morning.

GL buddy.
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#67
Posted: 9/9/2012 1:11:54 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by shivaseven:

Thanks for the extensive right ups. It's greatly appreciated. I've got 2.2 units on a three team teaser.

Houston -2.5
Philadelphia +.5
N.O. +2.5

You guys pretty well covered most of the salient points on these games.

Like you guys I'm looking at the JETS as the line has been driven down to 2.5 from 6.0. Just off memory I remember reading that the JETS are 7-1 SUP against the BILLS and have won all those games by more than 3 points. LY the Bills were 9.5 dogs in NY but this year are going off around 2.5. Really, has this match up swung by a touchdown so quickly. I think Mario Williams will make everyone on the BUF defense better but it's early and the BILLS are still implementing a new defensive system. This should be a very interesting game.

If you want to talk about teams regressing, how about the LIONS. It seems as an organization they lack maturity and might have a tough time duplicating their success of last year. If I was going to play one of those DOGS tomorrow I'd look at the RAMS. The Lions are banged up in the secondary, which isn't their strength, and you should check the status of Delmas and Houston. Just the fact they brought in Drayton Florence this week and were thinking about starting him should tell you about their DB depth.

Anyways, I gotta run. Good luck on the season and once again thanks a lot for taking the time to produce the detailed right ups.



I believe the Lions are playing without a secondary tomorrow. I've never heard of any of the 4 starters and I believe at least one of them is white. If the front 4 has an off game bad secondaries get exposed (see Giants, New York). On a related note how the piss does this game stay Under?
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#68
Posted: 9/9/2012 11:41:45 AM
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#69
Posted: 9/9/2012 12:13:45 PM
New England -4.5

Arizona +3 (-120)


For reasons already discussed.


GL this week fellas.
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#70
Posted: 9/9/2012 1:04:45 PM

GL buddy

I haven't locked in a bet in over 3 months but I'm dipping my toes back in the water with some very very small plays

Bears -9.5 (Motivated defense, they remember what Tebow did to them another rookie qb last year, bitter end to last year with 4 losses, Indy has a bad line, and bears got lambeau on deck so they know they gotta wrap this game up)

Jags ML (great run D, great pass D, I'm expecting their pass rush to improve, Mularkey is not putting pressure on the team and everyone on their will play loose and with a fire, MJD has a better game than Peterson who's banged up and taking away from Gerhart's carries)

Chiefs +2.5 (Motivated team after last year's home opener blowout, injuries ruined their year last year, sure they are missing flowers but routt brings toughness and Berry's a stud, Johnson's activated they man up and bring it)

Browns +10 (Already played Eagles in preseason at home, it took them a half to settle down and get over the jitters of playing a talented team like this, Richardson will do well against the Eagles run D even though Ryan is in, and the Browns have good O-line to slow down the Eagles rush, and Haden and the two-ex Eagles in Brown and Sheppard should do fine, Vick's fragile)

Bears-Bills 7pt Teaser

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Posted: 9/10/2012 3:11:51 PM
4-2 week. Few thoughts on the games I watched which may not mean much considering it was week 1.

WSH/NO - I was way off here. The coaching mismatch was evident from the opening snap. Shanahan had a genius gameplan for RG3 with short passes/screens early to settle the nerves, run plays, and called runs out of the option type schemes. The Saints were lost in every facet. It looked like this team hadn't been coached in months. B2B false starts, offense out of sync, missed assignments, guys jogging off the field, etc, etc. The hip word I've seen about today is Overreaction Monday. Meaning everyone now doesn't want to overreact to Week 1 which obviously means they are dismissing too much. Week 1 is very telling. This Saints team is in big trouble. Their defense is legitimate dogshit. I thought they would fall off to 8-8 after a riding some early momentum. Glad I have Falcons and Bucs tickets to win this division because this team will win as few games as possible with Brees as their QB. Obviously Griffin was A+.

NE/TEN - If the Pats had this team last year they would have demolished the Giants in the Super Bowl. Very physical team now. They look to be committed more to the run this season and Ridley + Vereen when he returns is a good combo. The front 7 is very good, best they've had in a while. The secondary is still not good though. Titans receivers were open a fair amount. As for the Titans they have a surprising amount of speed and skill on offense. If Locker stays upright this team is going to score this season. Unfortunately like I suspected the defense and front 7 in particular is just god awful.

SF/GB - Had a very sinking feeling just before this game kicked off that it would end the same as DAL/NYG. Big statement game for SF and they played angry. This team is so fundamentally sound that they are an auto bet as dogs and will be tough to knock off. Still not sold on Alex Smith on a deep playoff run but this team is top notch.

SEA/ARZ - Wow was this a bad game. The scoreboard and final statline won't show it but Russell Wilson has the "it factor". This kid is going to win in the NFL. He was a typical rookie in Game 1 though he held the ball too long early and then rushed throws later anticipating the rush. He'll learn though. Too bad his receivers really suck. Can't think of much to say about Arizona. They do have a good defense but the offense is so bad that is almost negates all their defensive talent. Worst offensive line in the league by a country mile. Big lookahead game for the Patriots next week but I have no clue how Arizona stays within 20.

PIT/DEN - Manning was manning really. Some concerns on defense but they really weren't that terrible. A lot of them getting there but Ben sneaking out and making Ben plays on 3rd downs to extend drives. Not too much to take away from this game for Pittsburgh as it was more of a spot game. If Manning stays healthy Denver will win the division though.

Baker - No bets in 3 months? Jesus man what have you been doing.

Glyde/Jets backers - Good call there that game was too easy. Everything feel perfectly into place for a Jets beatdown.
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#72
Posted: 9/10/2012 3:33:07 PM
Wilson is the real deal, was extremely impressed by him. 
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#73
Posted: 9/10/2012 3:51:26 PM

Nice week, Andy. 

I'm gonna start digging into the NFL Short Cuts, and pop into your week 2 thread with some thoughts. 

I'm starting to sour Cincy a bit.  Not sure if I'm gonna juice the bet out(don't need any backfiring shenanigans this early in the season) though.

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#74
Posted: 9/10/2012 4:02:22 PM
It is truly mindboggling how many times I have heard the term Overreaction Monday or something similar already today in just about every form of media.
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#75
Posted: 9/10/2012 4:09:58 PM
Great analysis for this week, really enjoyed reading it.
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