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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Week 1
mushroomspore send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 9/2/2012 12:23:34 PM
Love the Denver pick.  Pitt only has revenge going for them.

Let me take a minute to educate yall on the Niners.  All I hear is regression this, regression that.  They may be right if they're talking about their overall record, because their schedule is 10 x harder this year.  But if anyone thinks this years Niner squad isn't as good as last years, they are sorely mistaken.  

If anything they will be better.  And when we handicap games, we're more concerned with how good a team is, and not their hypothetical overall record.  This is their 2nd year in the same system, which they had to learn on the fly with no training camp last year.  They return all their starters from the BEST D in the league, and have ridiculous upgrades on offense - Manningham, Moss, Jacobs, James.  The weakness on D is the pass/deep ball, yet we're talking about the best D in the league, not some middle of the road crap. Preseason is preseason, vanilla D, etc. 

If there is any team that can go on the road and beat a Green Bay, its SF.  They will smash mouth em, control the game, and have huge advantages on D, special teams, run game, and coaching.  They will come out with exotic/tricky formations (not trick plays) that GB will not be prepared for.  OC Roman is a master at that.  
I see a close game here.   
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#27
Posted: 9/2/2012 12:31:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

. London Fletcher can't cover my grandma anymore

What team does your grandma play for this year?  LOL.

Good luck this year.
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#28
Posted: 9/2/2012 12:45:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gcwrestling08:

lol ppl still on the jets!!! lol!!! and pitt will destroy  peyton too hurt and rusty




Totally agree! Manning has no zip throwing to his right. Pitt will hit him early and often.. Ppl making big deal of Harrison and Clark missing the game but what about Den's starting RG Kuper; out 4-6 weeks.


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#29
Posted: 9/2/2012 1:22:23 PM

The 49ers could very well be a better team this season, however that does not mean the will produce a better result.

The things the 49ers excelled at last season are not repeatable.

The 49ers will win fewer games and won't reach the NFC Championship game again.

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#30
Posted: 9/3/2012 12:34:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mushroomspore:

Love the Denver pick.  Pitt only has revenge going for them.

Let me take a minute to educate yall on the Niners.  All I hear is regression this, regression that.  They may be right if they're talking about their overall record, because their schedule is 10 x harder this year.  But if anyone thinks this years Niner squad isn't as good as last years, they are sorely mistaken.  

If anything they will be better.  And when we handicap games, we're more concerned with how good a team is, and not their hypothetical overall record.  This is their 2nd year in the same system, which they had to learn on the fly with no training camp last year.  They return all their starters from the BEST D in the league, and have ridiculous upgrades on offense - Manningham, Moss, Jacobs, James.  The weakness on D is the pass/deep ball, yet we're talking about the best D in the league, not some middle of the road crap. Preseason is preseason, vanilla D, etc. 

If there is any team that can go on the road and beat a Green Bay, its SF.  They will smash mouth em, control the game, and have huge advantages on D, special teams, run game, and coaching.  They will come out with exotic/tricky formations (not trick plays) that GB will not be prepared for.  OC Roman is a master at that.  
I see a close game here.   

This sounds like a "homer" statement.  Just going to guess I'm dealing with a 49er fan.  

Oh, and by the way, the best D in the league surrendered how many points in the post season last year?  I'm sure it was somewhere between 55-60 in two games.  That is a great defense?  S.F. plays the Rams, Cardinals, and Seahawks 6 times a year.  Don't forget that.  As soon as the defensive unit faces an elite offense they look above average vs. elite.  If Eli Manning can go into Candlestick and put up the numbers he did last January.  Then I'm positive that next sunday, Aaron Rodgers is going to eat them alive on a nice sunny day in his back yard.  If Alex Smith, and this "new", offense can put up 35+ points you guys have a chance.  If not you lose by double digits.

Don't forget that this is the best team in football that had one bad day last January.  If you don't think they are chomping at the bit to take the field and destroy anything in their path, then you sir are out to lunch! 

Green Bay 37
San Fran   20 
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#31
Posted: 9/3/2012 11:36:35 AM
gl this year mac
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#32
Posted: 9/3/2012 1:30:02 PM
PITT is going to put a beatdown on the Broncos under one condition, they quit that stupid run every first down and let Ben call the plays and alot of no huddle.
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#33
Posted: 9/3/2012 2:00:43 PM
Denver Not seeing the revenge angle everyone is talking about. Last year in the playoffs Tebow mania beat the Steelers, they will be focused on Manning and not revenging last years loss to Tebow mania. Too many injuries and ? for Pitt. Denver D is gonna blow up Pitts O line and Big Ben will pay the price.
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#34
Posted: 9/3/2012 2:39:46 PM
Giving up 20 points twice, to an offense like the Giants with an elite QB is pretty damn good if you ask me.
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#35
Posted: 9/3/2012 3:17:34 PM
Their 4 losses last year - by 3, 10, 2, and 3.  Their style of play tends to keep games close.  Could Rogers light them up ?  Sure.  I just think it will be a close game regardless, even if he does throw for 350 yards (which he will have to with no running game).  Stafford and Manning threw for over 300 on them, (Manning twice) Niners won two of those games and lost once by 3.  Brees threw for 461 yards and Niners still won that game.  Point made.  
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#36
Posted: 9/3/2012 8:34:00 PM

Always the best thread in the NFL forum and respect your opinion as much as anyone else here and love the discussion here.

I hate to say it but I see many red flags for Denver backers on this game, what the hell do I know though.  GL as always.

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#37
Posted: 9/3/2012 11:02:47 PM


GL Andy

Leaning Dallas/Giants O44.5.  Last 6 match ups went over this number.  I am thinking this is more of a balanced matchup but I see both teams scoring in the 20's.
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#38
Posted: 9/3/2012 11:29:55 PM
gl this season andy 
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#39
Posted: 9/4/2012 12:06:01 AM
I can't remember getting Peyton Manning at a pick em in regular season. I'll take it.
Posted using a mobile device.
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#40
Posted: 9/4/2012 10:33:28 AM
mushroomspore - You may be right we shall certainly see. But there were so many areas SF excelled in last season that have a high degree of variance from year to year in the NFL. I'm not going to get into them again but they are fighting history very hard this season. Green Bay won't win 15 games this year either but they aren't fighting to stay at the top in as many somewhat fluky categories as San Fran is. Even a slight downtick in their offense and medium uptick in the defense with a 12-4 record is a better Packers team than last season in my eyes. And San Fran certainly does not have a significant matchup in the coaching game in this one.

ayerphorcewon - Even with Kuper out a few weeks this may be the best offensive line Manning has played behind. He was hit 2 or 3 times and not sacked in 42 dropbacks in preseason. I know that's not the same as a blitzing Pittsburgh defense but this has been a good line for a few years.

165yds - I see a couple the same things. Stuff like that used to concern me but I think it depends on how you break down the game as to whether or not they do.

REMYREVERE - Nice grab on that Over it has moved across a couple of key numbers. Good to see you. GL this season.
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#41
Posted: 9/4/2012 10:45:24 AM
Another thought on the Packers and Ravens.

Almost every player who has ever said anything about it has said it is not the late December games where you are hurting that are the toughest, it is actually Week 1. That is because players are not in game shape. There is no way to replicate it in practice and playing the odd half of preseason football does not do it either. Plus this year in just about every report I have read says teams are practicing tackling little to not at all under the new rules. When you have a Packers offense that is going to give Rodgers even more control and will run even more no-huddle than they did last year I think that is a situation where they can wear down the San Fran front over the course of the game that will not be in 100% game shape and may be rusty tackling against some very shifty guys on the Pack. I can see those big guys sucking major gas in the second half and if they can't rush the passer that secondary will be exposed.

Same situation with the Ravens. They are going to run the no-huddle at a very high % this season (Flacco recently said the offense is completely no huddle, he's lying but you get the idea) as Flacco ran it in college and is comfortable with it. Cincy's strength is the defensive line and if the Ravens can wear these guys out they will be in good shape. Cincy also does not have much depth at all upfront so rotating quality players to stay fresh will be a battle. Starting DE Carlos Dunlap looks like a question mark to even play after not practicing since August 10th with a knee injury. His backup just starting practicing for the first time since July. And starting MLB Rey Mauluaga was hurt in the first preseason game and missed the rest of preseason. Even if those three guys play are they going to be in anywhere near the shape necessary to stay with a no-huddle offense?
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#42
Posted: 9/5/2012 3:44:44 PM
Locked in a couple:

New Orleans -7

For reasons discussed above. Plus, I will look to support these uber elite QB's at home at a TD or less until they stop covering at an absurd rate. More Griffin nonsense from the last few days where teammates have compared him to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Michael Vick. New Orleans does not have a great looking defense on paper I admit that and they have a couple guys banged up but the home opener, rookie QB, and Spagnuolo factors can help overcome that in this game. If a Redskins team with a rookie QB, questionable at best playmakers, and a below average defense can go in there and trade scores with Brees then I will gladly pay the man.


Green Bay +1/Baltimore pk tease


Just made sense based on how I view the two games.

I will be on Arizona as well but will hold out faint hope for a reasonably priced 3 but will take them as long as they are dogs.

GL this week.
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#43
Posted: 9/5/2012 4:20:04 PM
Hey andar, how did you end up last year in NFL ?
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#44
Posted: 9/5/2012 4:24:13 PM
gl mac
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#45
Posted: 9/5/2012 8:04:47 PM
Dallas +4

Been thinking about this game all afternoon. Giants backers seem to think Romo will be running for his life all game. We'll see, he was sacked a ton last few years against the Giants and still put up great numbers. The weakness of this O-line (or moreso lack on continuity) is in the middle. Free was a solid RT two years ago and now he's back in his natural spot and everyone loves Smith at LT. Giants are more of an edge rush team so I think is being overblown. Also, Murray was hurt early in the 1st game last season and missed the second meeting. Having him and Jones catching passes out of the backfield on checkdowns is a big weapon against the pass rush.

Here's what sold me on the play. The Giants can use the disrespect card all they want, they use that all the time. Truth is I don't believe for one second these guys REALLY feel disrespected after winning two Super Bowls in 5 years. The reality the Cowboys lost to this team twice last season and have been slapped around by them for years. Dallas spent the whole offseason revamping their defense and offensive line to beat the Giants. They now have that great mix of veteran players and younger skilled players needed to win. The window is closing on this team and this might be their last crack. If they are ever going to beat the Giants and make a statement this is the game right here. They have done everything they can to try to make that statement. Love the fact Witten is playing. He'll most likely be a non-factor but the fact that he was willing to sign a waiver to play and took a separate flight to NY last night with a lacerated spleen shows me how desperately the Cowboys want this game. There will be no bigger statement made in Week 1 than if the Cowboys finally take the next step and win tonight. The time is now for this bunch. If the Giants lose then so what, this game is nowhere near as important for the Giants as the Cowboys.

GL.
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#46
Posted: 9/5/2012 8:08:22 PM
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#47
Posted: 9/5/2012 8:10:08 PM
Andy, GL this season

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#48
Posted: 9/5/2012 9:14:42 PM
GL, mate.
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#49
Posted: 9/5/2012 9:51:49 PM
GL Mac.  Youre right about them dudes being out of shape early on.  To be clear i was trying to make a point to our friend YNOT that just cuz the niners get lit up doesnt automatically mean a cover, as evidence by their record last year when giving up over 300 yds passing.  

I think the Saints rally around their off season troubles - a "circle the wagons" game or whatever they call it, and come out to destroy week 1.  
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#50
Posted: 9/5/2012 11:50:05 PM
Beautiful game by the Cowboys tonight. I have this group Over 8.5 wins as well and it was nice to see everything coming together. They have that great balance of experience and high-end youthful talent. They have the potential to be very good in both areas on both sides of the ball if everything continues to come together. They went in there tonight and garbage on the Giants. Yes, they are in a tough division and will surely have 2-3 typical WTF Cowboy games but this is one of the best 3-4 teams in the league IMO and will be a factor deep into January.
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