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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: New Regular Season NFL Strategy
nfl_connoisseur send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 9/17/2012 6:42:01 AM

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#27
Posted: 9/17/2012 6:53:10 AM
Sounds good! How ya like my image, LOL
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#28
Posted: 9/17/2012 9:56:55 AM
Greeny and Golic are going head to head predicting the game tonight.  Greeny likes the Broncos +3. 

That makes the pick Falcons -3
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#29
Posted: 9/17/2012 10:42:36 AM
Haha, I watch Mike and Mike every morning.  Like the system.  If Greeny doesn't get his head out of Sanchez's behind not sure how much longer I can stomach it.  
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#30
Posted: 9/18/2012 12:35:44 AM
Fade Greeny pick worked tonight as he picked Den +3, and we took ATL -3.

3-1-1 ytd

Also, I got a couple questions from some guys about my O/U picks.  If you're going to tail my picks, that's fine...I don't guarantee anything, and I only wager between 1-2 units per pick...that's what I recommend.  It's really important to grab early numbers on the O/U's.   Perfect example, I have the Redskins game over 47, I posted it last night.  Currently, it's at 48.5, and it's only been 24 hours since the line came out.  It's very possible this line gets over 50 at kickoff.  With these line moves, we can make some really good middle wagers.  Also, this movement tells me we were on the right side of the number, and early $ is normally sharp $, especially on the O/U as most "public bettors" don't take the totals seriously.  The other 2 lines I posted have already moved 1/2 a point...one in our favor, one against us.  I'm not worried about 1/2 a point, but if we can get the best number 65%-70% of the time this year, that gives us a really good chance to turn a profit. 

As for the Fade Greeny system, I'm going to try and get his picks for the Thursday night games, Monday night games, and the Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks.  I don't listen to them in the mornings all the time, but I'll try and get his picks from the podcast.  If I struggle to find his picks, I may ask for help from someone who listens to them all morning.
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#31
Posted: 9/19/2012 4:09:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

2 early lines for next week

Jets-Dolphins over 40

First off, I like this line because I think this will go up later on in the week.  If we can get it over 42, we are in great shape to take the under and possible set up nicely for a middle.  However, I like this line even if it doesn't move for several reasons.  The Dolphins defense is good, but you can throw on them.  Palmer had 375 yards today.  We've seen the best and worse of the Jets the last 2 weeks...I think they are somewhere in the middle, and I think Sanchez will be able to move the ball through the air.  Even if Revis is back for the Jets, they will have problems with Reggie Bush, and all those things considered should be enough to get us over 40.

Eagles-Cardinals under 44

The Eagles have a surprisingly good run defense.  They gave up 1 rush td to the Ravens and it wasn't even to Rice.  Last week, no rush td's allowed, and dating back to last year they were great against the run.  No way the Cards will run against these guys.  No matter who is qb, the weapons for Arizona are very limited (except for Fitzgerald obviously)...but as we saw today, the defense is surprisingly good.  Young core, but they play really tough.  Vick has struggled, and I think the Cards D can make him struggle as well.  The one thing I worry about is Peterson or Jackson in the punt return game taking one to the house, or giving great field position to the offense...but even then, this could be a FG game.
GOING TO TAKE BOTH PICKS
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#32
Posted: 9/20/2012 2:29:06 PM
Fade Greeny system pick is in.  He like Carolina tonight.  Therefore, the pick is

Giants +1.5
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#33
Posted: 9/20/2012 11:31:51 PM
Fade Greeny system comes through again.

ytd 4-1-1

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks will come out tomorrow.  I'll post them as soon as I hear them.

For those following my O/U plays, I'm keeping my eye on the Texans-Broncos game.  I'd like to take the under in that game...I'm going to wait til before kickoff to take it though.  I think that line will move up...currently it's at 45.
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#34
Posted: 9/21/2012 11:10:30 AM
Fade Greeny picks are in for the Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks.

He likes the Eagles -3.5 over the Cardinals, and the Redskins -3 over the Bengals.

That makes the picks Cardinals +3.5 and Bengals +3.
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#35
Posted: 9/23/2012 7:13:43 PM
Fade Greeny picks come through again today!!!

2-0 today
6-1-1 ytd

Also, my O/U went 3-0 today

7-2-1 ytd

Got a little lucky with the Jets and Dolphins hitting the over in OT, amazing performance by the Cardinals D gets us the under, and I wish I would've put more on the Bengals-Redskins Over...that one was never in doubt.

I'll be looking at the lines as they come out tonight.  With the Jets game, and the Bengals game last week we were on the right side of the number by 2 points in each game.  That's a huge advantage if we can keep that up this year.
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#36
Posted: 9/23/2012 10:28:56 PM
4 O/U for next week I like right out of the gate.

In years past, I've been an under bettor...but this is a different NFL.  Offense is king, so I've been trying to take more overs this year.  I like 3 right out of the gate.  Also, overs numbers seem to move over the course of the week, so getting the best number is smart.

Redskins at Buccaneers over 48

Pretty simple explanation for this one.  The Redskins defense is terrible.  Absolutely awful.  They haven't been able to slow down anybody, and I don't see why they will be able to start next week.  RGIII is taking a bunch of shots, but he is still leading an explosive offense...and should get Garcon back.  The Buccaneers defense is above average, but this game should be a shootout with the Redskins trying to keep up.

Bengals at Jaguars over 43

Shhh...don't tell anybody.  Andy Dalton is turning into a really good qb, and he and AJ Green are turning into one of the best qb-wr combos in the league.  Them along with BJGE should be able to move the ball fairly easy.  The Bengals defense is still not very good...I don't see how they keep MJD under 100 yards, and Gabbert is competent enough in this offense to put up a few TD's which should get us over.

Raiders at Broncos over 47

Who do I think will win the matchup of the Raiders Defensive prowess vs. Peyton Manning's football intellect?  Yeah, not even close.  Peyton should be able to move the ball at will against these guys, and the Broncos defense hasn't exactly been stellar.  Palmer is putting up good numbers, and a healthy McFadden is playing well.  All signs point to this being a high scoring affair, and both these teams can move the ball quickly at the end of the game in garbage time, or in hurry up time.

Bears at Cowboys under 44

Two offenses that are struggling, but two defenses that are playing well.  I really like the Bears defense right now.  They are playing real tough, shut down defense on everyone, and I think they keep that up here.  Not sure what has happened to the Cowboys offense the last couple weeks, but they are not clicking.  Bears get Forte back, but Cutler and the offensive line are bad right now.  I can see both teams moving the ball, but not punching in a lot of TD's.  Probably lots of FG's in this game but not enough to get over the number.



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#37
Posted: 9/24/2012 4:39:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

4 O/U for next week I like right out of the gate.

In years past, I've been an under bettor...but this is a different NFL.  Offense is king, so I've been trying to take more overs this year.  I like 3 right out of the gate.  Also, overs numbers seem to move over the course of the week, so getting the best number is smart.

Redskins at Buccaneers over 48

Pretty simple explanation for this one.  The Redskins defense is terrible.  Absolutely awful.  They haven't been able to slow down anybody, and I don't see why they will be able to start next week.  RGIII is taking a bunch of shots, but he is still leading an explosive offense...and should get Garcon back.  The Buccaneers defense is above average, but this game should be a shootout with the Redskins trying to keep up.

Bengals at Jaguars over 43

Shhh...don't tell anybody.  Andy Dalton is turning into a really good qb, and he and AJ Green are turning into one of the best qb-wr combos in the league.  Them along with BJGE should be able to move the ball fairly easy.  The Bengals defense is still not very good...I don't see how they keep MJD under 100 yards, and Gabbert is competent enough in this offense to put up a few TD's which should get us over.

Raiders at Broncos over 47

Who do I think will win the matchup of the Raiders Defensive prowess vs. Peyton Manning's football intellect?  Yeah, not even close.  Peyton should be able to move the ball at will against these guys, and the Broncos defense hasn't exactly been stellar.  Palmer is putting up good numbers, and a healthy McFadden is playing well.  All signs point to this being a high scoring affair, and both these teams can move the ball quickly at the end of the game in garbage time, or in hurry up time.

Bears at Cowboys under 44

Two offenses that are struggling, but two defenses that are playing well.  I really like the Bears defense right now.  They are playing real tough, shut down defense on everyone, and I think they keep that up here.  Not sure what has happened to the Cowboys offense the last couple weeks, but they are not clicking.  Bears get Forte back, but Cutler and the offensive line are bad right now.  I can see both teams moving the ball, but not punching in a lot of TD's.  Probably lots of FG's in this game but not enough to get over the number.





I like your picks already!!
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#38
Posted: 9/24/2012 5:01:20 AM
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#39
Posted: 9/24/2012 11:55:54 AM
One more early play for Week 3...

Browns-Ravens over 44

This schedule is completely unfair to the Ravens.  Play Sunday night against the Patriots, then turn around and play again Thursday night.  Good for them if they get 2 wins out of this...and good for us Totals bettors.  The defense of the Ravens is living on reputation, and this short week will hurt them.  I don't think they will be completely healed, and will be a step slow.  The Ravens offense should be able to move the ball up and down the field against a suspect Browns defense, and if this game is close there could be some 4th qt drives that get us over.
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#40
Posted: 9/24/2012 5:16:32 PM
Fade Greeny play tonight...

He likes Seattle getting points

That makes the play Packers -3.5

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#41
Posted: 9/25/2012 4:12:19 PM
Well...no more needs to be said about the Packers-Seahawks game.
Greeny finally gets one right...in a very odd fashion!!!

Fade Greeny ytd
6-2-1

So, let's add another play to the O/U card for next week...normally I don't have this many plays, but there's a lot of lines I'm liking.

49ers team total over 22

The numbers on the Jets Defense with and without Revis speak for themselves.  Basically, they are a top 10 defense with him, and a bottom 10 defense without him.  And they only have 1 week to try and game plan without him.  San Fran is coming off a loss, and Harbaugh will surely have a great game plan to run and pass on the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS!!!  I like SF to come in and play well, and don't count out the possibility of Sanchise throwing a pick-6.  I'm not confident in the Jets offense to get enough points to get the game total over, but I think the 49ers put up a good number here. 
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#42
Posted: 9/26/2012 1:55:51 AM

   Greeny.. dude's such a flake.. cant stand him

 

BoL with your plays alan... 

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#43
Posted: 9/27/2012 5:15:23 PM
Fade Greeny Pick is in

he likes the Browns +12

That makes the pick Ravens -12.

6-2-1 ytd
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#44
Posted: 9/28/2012 1:16:31 PM
Greeny is on a roll unfortunately...he's got 2 in a row right...if you count the Seatle debocle.

His Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks are in for the weekend.

He likes the Giants +2.5 and Packers -7.5

That makes the picks Eagles -2 and Saints +7.5

6-3-1 ytd
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#45
Posted: 9/30/2012 10:56:03 PM
Early Plays for Week 4

Week 3 not too kind...1-3 right now...waiting for the Cowboys-Bears game.

Missed FG's in the Redskins game really cost us the over...and good god the Raiders were terrible.  Denver did their job, but Raiders only scoring 6 pts...ouch.

Falcons at Redskins over 49.5

Lots of points to get over the total, but I'm loving both these offenses right now.  Falcons seemed vulnerable to the run today against the Panthers, and RGIII and Morris are legit runners.  I think the Redskins will be able to move the ball, and the Redskins should have real problems trying to stop the Falcons offense.  I don't see the Redskins holding Atlanta back...could be a real shootout.

Ravens at Chiefs over 45

I love this line.  Ravens are off of rest, and I expect their offense to come out looking sharp.  If they run their no huddle, I don't see how the Chiefs can stop them.  Ravens D hasn't been very good this year (if Greg Little could catch, the Browns put up lots of point on them), and Jamaal Charles is faster than everyone on the Ravens D.  Also, don't forget the garbage time factor for the garbage kings, Matt Cassell and Dwayne Bowe...these guys are always good for a worthless td when they are getting blown out.

That's it for tonight's early lines.  I'll be looking at playing some individual team totals as soon as they are released.  Probably the Texans team total over at the Jets, and the Titans team total under the total at the Vikings.
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#46
Posted: 10/1/2012 9:59:19 AM
Fade Greeny Pick is in for tonight.

The system missed the Packers game...and depending on where the line was when you booked the wager, the giants pick was either a winner or loser.  It won for me because I took the Eagles -1.  We'll say he went 1-1 this weekend.

ytd 7-4-1

His pick is in for tonight.  He likes the Bears +3.  That means the system pick is Cowboys -3.
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#47
Posted: 10/1/2012 6:32:10 PM
Great thread, very entertaining 

GL
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#48
Posted: 10/1/2012 6:48:02 PM
Loving ur thread alan hope they come through!
Posted using a mobile device.
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#49
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:37:28 AM
Thanks guys...Greeny did well this week...which means for the Fade Greeny system.  Even with his win tonight, the Fade Greeny System is 7-5-1. ytd

My over unders did terrible this week.  1-4 this week
8-6-1 ytd  Good news is still was on the right side of the line moves.  Through week 4 hopefully I have enough info on teams to put together a string of profitable weeks.

There was a line I was hoping was going to get some money coming in on the over, but it looks like it's going to hold still so I'll take some action with it now.

Browns-Giants under 44

Don't let Trent Richardson's success the last few weeks fool you.  The browns are a bad offensive team.  Weeden I think has actually looked good, but Greg Little has problems catching the ball, and they are not healthy at the wr position, and now they get to go on the road to the Giants who just lost a close game.  The Browns have played 2 good defenses and 2 bad defenses.  They put up points against the Bengals, and struggled big time against the Ravens, Eagles, and Bills.  I like the Giants D to win this matchup and hold them under 17 points.  The other thing I like is the Cleveland D is underrated.  I think Eli and the WR's will have success, but the giants should be able to utilize the run game and keep the score low.

I'll also be keeping an eye on the Browns team total.  If it's 17 or under, I'll be taking some of that as well.
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#50
Posted: 10/2/2012 12:43:54 AM
The fade should be good for next week.
Could you post it early ... thx
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