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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: New Regular Season NFL Strategy
alangrrbs send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
alangrrbs
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#1
Posted: 8/10/2012 3:07:13 PM
This year I'm going to try a new NFL strategy.  One unit per wager, bet the opposite of Mike Greenburg's picks on Mike and Mike's Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks.  Every year his picks are terrible, and if you would have faded him last year you would have gone 21-10-1 in the regular season. 

In 2011 you would've gone 18-9-3. 

Should be fun, and hopefully profitable.  I'll keep this thread updated as soon as his picks start.
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#2
Posted: 8/31/2012 11:50:06 AM
I'm only going to do Over/Unders this year in the NFL for my personal picks.  I like 2 lines in week 1.

Miami-Houston under 43

Houston is going to be a top 3 defense this year.  Miami is weak on offense, and that's being very generous.  No threat at wr, weak at qb, Wade Phillip's squad will have a field day.  Miami's defense played pretty decent at the end of the year...don't think they will be able to stop Houston's team, but they will be able to slow them down.  Houston should run the ball all game, especially in the 2nd half.

49ers at Packers over 45

I like this play a lot.  Green Bay can throw on anyone...especially at home.  49ers will probably try and run the ball and keep the ball out of Rogers's hands, but if the Packers get up, Alex Smith will have to air it out.  I think GB comes out excited to forget about how last year ended and put up some quick points.  49ers should be able to move the ball against a suspect Packers D...all things point to an over.

As soon as I hear the Stone Cold Lead Pipe locks from Greeny, I'll post those plays.
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#3
Posted: 9/7/2012 6:22:02 PM
The first plays in the Fade Greeny system are in.  Coincidentally, they both involve the games I like in the O/U

He likes Houston -13 and GB -5

Therefore the picks this week are Miami +13 and San Fran +5...each play 1 unit...I'll keep track of my Over/Unders and the Fade Greeny system on this thread.

GL this week everyone 
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#4
Posted: 9/9/2012 1:56:23 AM
Carolina-Tampa under 47

These two teams are running teams, and that should keep the clock moving.  Everyone seems to think Cam Newton likes to air it out, but the bottom line is he didn't have a 300 yd passing game after week 4 last year.  Jonathan Stewart is banged up and that could hurt Carolina as well.  Tampa has some new receivers and a new starting rb...I think they have some growing pains to start the year.  Hopefully all this causes a low scoring game.
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#5
Posted: 9/9/2012 7:43:38 PM
Fade Greeny system 1-1 ytd

Over/Unders 3-0 ytd

I'm going to take a look at the opening lines for next week when they come out tonight...hopefully there's some soft totals we can take advantage of. 

Hope everyone had a great week!


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#6
Posted: 9/9/2012 7:49:42 PM

great job with your o/u plays..  

i cant stand greeny, dude's a complete idiot.. 

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Posted: 9/9/2012 8:30:34 PM
Thanks man

I thought about fading him last year and just never did.  Hopefully he doesn't disappoint us this year.
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#8
Posted: 9/9/2012 10:03:13 PM
Lines for next week are coming out.  Found a total I absolutely love.

2 units

Vikings-Colts over 43.5

The Colts defense is absolutely terrible.  They will need some time to implement their new system this year, and until then they will probably struggle to stop teams.  Andrew Luck played fairly well against a really good Bears defense, and should be even better against the Vikings.  Also, even if this game is a blowout (for either team), there are 2 young qb's playing and their coaches are going to want them to keep playing til the end of the game.  Even if the game isn't over the total going into the 4th, there could easily be a garbage td that gets us over.
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#9
Posted: 9/10/2012 2:38:14 PM
Money already coming in on the Vikes-Colts game.

Another play

Chiefs-Bills over 44.5

Both these teams really struggled on defense.  Obviously Atlanta is going to put up some points this year, but they absolutely shredded the Chiefs.  Now the Chiefs go on the road to a team that played awful on both sides of the ball.  I can't see both defenses all of sudden being able to stop the other team and I can see this being a game of big plays with Jamaal Charles, Bowe, Spiller and Stevie Johnson all capable of burning soft defenses.  Also, if Fitzgerald continues to throw int's that will only help the track meet style this game could turn into.
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#10
Posted: 9/11/2012 11:10:03 AM
One more O/U play for this upcoming week.

Lions-49ers under 46

I kept looking back at the two games these two teams played last week and here was my takeaway.  The 49ers defense gave up some points and yard to Rogers and the Pack, but they really kept them bottled up for the most part.  They ate the Packers defense apart, but that was more an indictment of the Packers defense as opposed to great offense.  The Lions did not play well on artificial turf against the Rams, and I don't see them having much success on grass on the road against these 49ers.  The defense for the Lions has a good d-line, and running the ball is what the 49ers want to do.  I think both these offenses struggle, and even if teams can drive the ball, I think td's are going to be hard to come by. 
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#11
Posted: 9/11/2012 12:41:45 PM
likem
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#12
Posted: 9/11/2012 5:31:16 PM
GOING TO BE LOOKING AT THIS ESP.OV.AND UN WISHING BEST OF LUCK
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#13
Posted: 9/11/2012 8:49:48 PM
Thanks guys...hopefully we make some this season
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#14
Posted: 9/11/2012 9:49:35 PM
I like the way you break down your over/under plays with sound reasoning.  Great start to the season.
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#15
Posted: 9/11/2012 11:08:01 PM
Bookmark this to track the fade Mike Greenburg's system

I might tail some of the play when it makes sense

Good luck buddy
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#16
Posted: 9/15/2012 11:22:26 AM
Fade Greeny Week 2

Greeny's picks are Dallas -3, and Eagles -1

That makes this weeks picks Seattle Seahawks +3, and Ravens +1
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#17
Posted: 9/15/2012 11:29:57 AM
I'm keeping an eye on one more O/U play...want to see how the line moves on Sunday.  Saints-Panthers total is 52...I'd like to see if it moves up at all...I'd like to play the under, and I probably will, but I'd like to see if we can get another 1/2 point or so added onto the total.  I'll do the write up now for that game.

Saints-Panthers under 52 (haven't made this play official...will wait to see on Sunday)

The Saints on offense didn't look very good until garbage time last week, and people seem to forget that the Saints offense isn't nearly what it is on the road and on natural grass.  As for the Panthers, I said before the year started that I think Cam has a bit of a struggle this year.  They cashed us a ticket last week and I'm going to keep riding that train.  He only ran for 4 yds last week, and I think Carolina has given him specific instructions to throw the ball and not take the chance of getting hurt while running.  He did pass for 300 yds last week, but only threw 1 td, and had 2 ints.  Last thing, this game is a divisional rivalry, and the Saints have played Cam twice...they know what to expect as opposed to last week where RG III was brand new.
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#18
Posted: 9/15/2012 11:37:49 AM

Nice work Alan.  I am not a big totals player, but I will be following you this year.  I love your 3 plays.  Greeny will go 1-1 again.  SEA will win SU and BALT loses. 

I also love the limited plays.  I am going to try that this year too.  Today in college, I only have 4 plays out of 100 games!

Good luck!

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Posted: 9/15/2012 12:23:23 PM
Thanks man.  GL today in college
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#20
Posted: 9/15/2012 5:04:14 PM
Nice write up Alan keep the winning picks coming!

 GL this week! 
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#21
Posted: 9/16/2012 11:34:06 AM
Lots of came in on the Saints-Panthers...perfect for what we need for the under.  Line went to 53.5...let's take the under.
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#22
Posted: 9/16/2012 12:07:10 PM
Liking all except seattle. G.L.
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#23
Posted: 9/17/2012 12:23:46 AM
Fade Greeny went 1-0-1

YTD 2-1-1

O/U today were crazy to say the least.  We get a tie on the 49ers game on a late td...miss the Colts game by 1/2 a pt...and easily hit the over on the Bills game.

Sorry about the Saints-Panthers game...I know the Saints D had some issues, but wow...that was absolutely terrible.  Hopefully, this will give us some info to use going forward though.

1-2-1 today...I had the colts game at 2 units, so we were -2 units today.

4-2-1 ytd +1 unit

I'm getting ready to look at the early lines, and may make some plays here in a bit.  One thing I was happy about this week was even though we lost the Colts and Saints game, we got the best number.  That's always a good thing over the long run.
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#24
Posted: 9/17/2012 12:44:58 AM
2 early lines for next week

Jets-Dolphins over 40

First off, I like this line because I think this will go up later on in the week.  If we can get it over 42, we are in great shape to take the under and possible set up nicely for a middle.  However, I like this line even if it doesn't move for several reasons.  The Dolphins defense is good, but you can throw on them.  Palmer had 375 yards today.  We've seen the best and worse of the Jets the last 2 weeks...I think they are somewhere in the middle, and I think Sanchez will be able to move the ball through the air.  Even if Revis is back for the Jets, they will have problems with Reggie Bush, and all those things considered should be enough to get us over 40.

Eagles-Cardinals under 44

The Eagles have a surprisingly good run defense.  They gave up 1 rush td to the Ravens and it wasn't even to Rice.  Last week, no rush td's allowed, and dating back to last year they were great against the run.  No way the Cards will run against these guys.  No matter who is qb, the weapons for Arizona are very limited (except for Fitzgerald obviously)...but as we saw today, the defense is surprisingly good.  Young core, but they play really tough.  Vick has struggled, and I think the Cards D can make him struggle as well.  The one thing I worry about is Peterson or Jackson in the punt return game taking one to the house, or giving great field position to the offense...but even then, this could be a FG game.
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#25
Posted: 9/17/2012 12:59:32 AM
Last Early Line

Bengals-Redskins over 47 1.5 units

Lots of reasons to like this over.  RG III has looked good, but what I really like so far is Shanahan's game plan.  He's calling plays from RGIII's college system, and that has had the last 2 defenses really confused.  I think it's a couple more weeks before teams figure him out.  Now let's talk Bengals D, or lack there of.  44 pts to the Ravens (they threw and ran all over them).  27 pts to the Browns (yes...they threw and ran all over them).  Skins probably get Garcon back, and they moved the ball pretty easy against the Rams through the air and ground.  Redskins D hasn't been very good, and I like what I see from Dalton, Green and BJGE.  Neither defense should have success against these two offenses, and if this game is close going into the 4th we could see several back and forth scores.

Another line I think will go up over the next week by the way.
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