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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: preseason nfl football all unders------------------------------------------
808Tunda send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#1
Posted: 8/1/2012 4:13:56 AM
dont know the exact track record of unders in preseason the last few years but i think if you bet every game under you will come out ahead??????  anyone got a track record of this??????
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SlumdogPicks send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
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#2
Posted: 8/1/2012 10:50:49 PM
go for it... let us know how it turns out.
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#3
Posted: 8/2/2012 2:11:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by SlumdogPicks:

go for it... let us know how it turns out.
might just put small bets on all the unders and see how it pans out. and when i mean small i mean small
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Gold_Rush send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#4
Posted: 8/2/2012 3:56:52 PM
I was thinking the same thing. Unders are the norm for preseason


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#5
Posted: 8/2/2012 11:37:15 PM
Here's an article concerning just that 808 by Allen Moody of about.com sports gambling. Food for thought...

2012 NFL Preseason and Totals


Our final look at preseason football will concentrate on totals. We touched upon totals a bit when we looked at head coaches and their tendencies in 2012 NFL Coaches and Preseason Betting, but this will be a much more detailed look at preseason totals.
Given the nature of preseason football, we'll break down each week and see if there are some weeks where totals tend to go over or under a greater percentage of the time.
Preseason Football
The image of preseason football brings to mind a lot of 10-7 games with third- and fourth-string players bumbling their way through the majority of the game. You have quarterbacks who can't pass, receivers who can't catch and linemen who can't block. From that standpoint, it's not really surprising to see totals as low much lower in preseason than when the games count.

But that perception is just that, a perception and a false one at that, as over the past four years a bettor would have shown a flat-bet profit by simply taking the over in every game.
Preseason Totals
Over the past four years, preseason totals are 137-119-3 past four seasons, which translates to 54%. Not quite high enough to instill a lot of confidence in betting all of the overs, but certainly not a bad starting point.

Now, a week-by-week breakdown:
Week One
Overall: 36-28
34.5 points or less: 26-19
35 to 39.5 points: 10-9
40 to 44.5 points: 0-0

Week No. 1 has been a decent week for overs, particularly those games with a low total, as they go over 57.8% of the time. It's a bit surprising to see no totals of 40 or higher for opening week.
Week Two
Overall: 36-27-1
34.5 points or less: 12-5-1
35 to 39.5 points: 21-21
40 to 44.5 points: 3-1

The low totals really perform well in week No. 2, going a solid 12-5-1, while the middle grouping is right at 50%. The higher totals also do well in regards to the over, but with just four games in the sample size, it's a bit difficult to get excited about.
Week Three
Overall: 32-32
34.5 points or less: 4-3
35 to 39.5 points: 19-22
40 to 44.5 points: 9-7

The totals come back to earth a little bit in week No. 3, while the higher totals go over more often than not once again.
Week Four
Overall: 31-31-2
34.5 points or less: 4-7-1
35 to 39.5 points: 26-22-1
40 to 44.5 points: 1-2

In week No. 4 we see complete reversals in all three categories, as the lower totals and the higher totals both go under more often than not, while the 35 to 39.5 grouping sees more games go over than not.

Now to look at the overall breakdown:
Overall
34.5 points or less: 48-35-2 57.8%
35 to 39.5 points: 76-74-1 50.7%
40 to 44.5 points: 13-10-0 56.5%

Going over the extremely low-totaled games has been the best bet over the past four years, hitting at nearly a 58% clip, closely followed by the high totals, with the mid-range totals in the 50% range. Bypassing the final week will increase your winning percentage greatly.

Those looking for an additional edge can compare the coaching trends discussed in 2012 NFL Coaches and Preseason Betting and look for those situations where the trends coincide, which should give you more of an edge.
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GunShard
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#6
Posted: 8/3/2012 1:50:29 AM
Yea, already put all Unders on my Covers, lol.
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808Tunda send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 8/3/2012 4:48:01 AM
damn thomas i havent kept track of OU over the years.  im just throwing the all unders out there cause it really seemed more preseason games went under rather than over
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#8
Posted: 8/6/2012 11:20:30 AM
saints went under 37.  1-0
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#9
Posted: 8/9/2012 4:39:51 PM
preseason all unders record 1-0

bills under 34.5
saints under 38
steelers under 35
ravens under 34
packers under 38
broncos under 34.5

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#10
Posted: 8/10/2012 12:13:36 PM
preseason under record 5 wins 2 loss

dolphins under 33.5
jets under 34
lions under 36
giants under 35
chiefs under 34.5
vikings under 34.5

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