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Author:	[NFL Betting] Topic: line that is puzzling week 1....
dibcompany	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Rookie Joined: Nov 2006 Posts: 881 Location: Canada	#1 Posted: 7/15/2012 8:19:55 PM Atlanta -1 @ KC this line seems off, Can anyone tell me why KC getting so much respect this year? KC's schedule also seems tough but their total win is set at 8 win totals for the season... I guess they are banking Jamal Charles gonna rip things up this season... with Cassell!!!
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pulledclear	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 3202 Location: United States	#2 Posted: 7/15/2012 9:35:06 PM Atlanta is awful on the road and its KCS home opener.
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Vegasbuster	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2006 Posts: 1926 Location: Louisiana	#3 Posted: 7/15/2012 10:00:29 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by pulledclear: Atlanta is awful on the road and its KCS home opener. Maybe so, but I'm still laying $ on Atlanta.
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mischkin04	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Jan 2010 Posts: 1728 Location: Florida	#4 Posted: 7/16/2012 11:23:43 AM
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drcitizen	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 46 Location:	#5 Posted: 7/16/2012 11:51:16 AM KC is a good home dog team. I'd lean KC.
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#6 Posted: 7/16/2012 3:03:22 PM I actually have a huge writeup coming on this game but I've already laid $2,000 on Atlanta(PK) for huge key STATISTICAL reasons. Some quick notes: Yes Atlanta, or specifically Matt Ryan, has posted a 17-15 road record versus a 26-4 home record since 2008 in games he started, but here are the losses: -Saints(division opponent) -Saints(division opponent) -Saints(division opponent) -Panthers(division opponent) -Panthers(division opponent) -Bucs(division opponent) -Bucs(division opponent) -Eagles(played the falcons every year since 2008) -Eagles(played the falcons every year since 2008) -Bears(After losing the past two years in Atlanta-Revenge) -Patriots(who don't they beat at home) -Cowboys -Giants(overtime loss) -Texans(won AFC South last year) -Steelers(home opener in Pitt and lost in overtime) Kansas City to me doesn't seem to be in the same category of teams that have beaten Atlanta on the road. Kansas City is also 1-3 its last four at home, with the one win on a Monday night against the Chargers, a division rival. AFC West last four years are 1-3(All 2008, Matt Ryan's rookie year) AFC Last four years are 4-12 against Atlanta For those who are a huge fan of the KC running game, Atlanta was the 6th ranked defense against the run only allowing 97.0 yards per game. That's not against one player, but the whole team.
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kickinA	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Oct 2004 Posts: 13462 Location: California	#7 Posted: 7/16/2012 3:07:27 PM You mean an improved KC team that was the only team to beat GB last year at this very same venue?
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#8 Posted: 7/16/2012 3:09:48 PM EDIT ***AFC West last four years against Atlanta are 1-3(Broncos won in Atlanta, KC lost in Atlanta and SD/OAK lost on the road) Additionally, Atlanta(Matt Ryan) is 5-0 in West Coast games, 6-0 if you include the Rams -Seahawks -Seahawks -Rams -Chargers -Raiders -49ers
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#9 Posted: 7/16/2012 3:11:41 PM The GB game was an obvious fluke. GB was snoozing into that one. You mean to tell me the team's new head coach and new QB only has six days to prepare??? Nah I'm gonna take a break this week...
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pulledclear	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Banned Joined: Sep 2010 Posts: 3202 Location: United States	#10 Posted: 7/16/2012 3:12:23 PM If it looks to good to be true it probably is.
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#11 Posted: 7/16/2012 3:14:24 PM Sorry I meant to say KC is 1-3 its last four home OPENERS, with again the one win against the Chargers, division opponent, on a Monday night
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slikstiks99	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Sep 2006 Posts: 5060 Location: Zambia	#12 Posted: 7/16/2012 3:52:44 PM This line is not puzzling at all. It is dead on. I could see KC having a chance to win, but they manage Charles' yards too much and error on the side of caution. There will be some interesting matchups with Julio Jones and Roddy White versus Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry. I foresee Jaquizz Rogers having a hell of a game and season. Rogers is a poor man's ray rice.
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#13 Posted: 7/16/2012 4:13:52 PM The line is perfect because this is game is a huge candidate for there to be an unbalanced line if points were given to either team. I could see tons of action on Atlanta by the public, and tons of action on KC by the sharps, but not both. KC -3 public is all over Atl, Atlanta -3 sharps all over KC. It really depends on KC. Will they be the team that beat the undefeated Packers and finished 2-1 under their head coach? Will they be the team that went 1-3 in their past four home openers while their starting QB, TE, S, RB and others off of IR are still recovering? Remember there is no more Charlie Weiss or Todd Haley to help the offense. theres also a potential of a Dwayne Bowe holdout in the next couple of weeks..... If you like this line for Atlanta, now is the time. Barring injury I see a ATL(-3) coming soon after the preseason is over
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ClubDirt	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
MVP Joined: May 2003 Posts: 16548 Location: United States	#14 Posted: 7/16/2012 4:39:48 PM no line makes much sense to me in july but i'd put it at KC -1 or 1- for what it's worth. why anyone would take an average road team, a dome team, playing in one of the tougher venues in the first game of the season in july as a favorite is beyond me.
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drcitizen	View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 46 Location:	#15 Posted: 7/16/2012 6:35:44 PM ^what he said.
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TreyInventor	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Veteran Joined: Jun 2012 Posts: 1471 Location: California	#16 Posted: 7/16/2012 6:44:37 PM I think Matt Ryan and company pull this one off. I could never bet on the Cheifs until they show me something... I do like the under in this game tho. Jamal Charles and P Hillis will be getting a lot of touches. Draining that clock out. I see 23-14
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slikstiks99	View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Captain Joined: Sep 2006 Posts: 5060 Location: Zambia	#17 Posted: 7/16/2012 6:59:54 PM This game will be decided by which team can protect the QB. I too lean ATL. There are too many questions in KC right now and they may try to manage JC's workload.
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#18 Posted: 7/16/2012 7:38:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by TreyInventor: I think Matt Ryan and company pull this one off. I could never bet on the Cheifs until they show me something... I do like the under in this game tho. Jamal Charles and P Hillis will be getting a lot of touches. Draining that clock out. I see 23-14 Under is a great lean on this play. Atlanta is a time of possession team. KC will try to run all day against the 6th ranked rushing defense(97yds/game) and Matt Ryan is a short to intermediate passer. Interesting to see the style the new offensive coordinator brings to this Atlanta team. At the end of the day is ATL gets the lead they'll use plenty of Turner/Gonzalez for 5-10yd gains. Under fits with KC defense and ATL style, just be weary of the OC changing things up to light up the scoreboard
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kickinA	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
All-Star Joined: Oct 2004 Posts: 13462 Location: California	#19 Posted: 7/16/2012 8:10:06 PM If you're going to play the UNDER, do it for one reason alone. And that is, defenses have a tremendous edge early into the season. That's usually why I play UNDER during the first month of the season.
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Niners13	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports \|
Veteran Joined: Dec 2010 Posts: 1584 Location: Ontario	#20 Posted: 7/17/2012 6:43:44 PM This is the same game as last year when Atlanta played Chicago and everyone square in the world loved Atlanta. Same line, same situation.
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#21 Posted: 7/17/2012 7:57:40 PM Another couple of stats to chew on: Matt Ryan is 26-1 against teams that finish that season they play the Falcons with a losing record. He doesn't lose to losing teams. Of Matt Ryan's 19 losses, only one loss came to a team that finished with a record lower than 8-8. That was last year on the road against the division rival Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay finished 4-12. His 19 losses: 2008 Road Tampa Bay(9-7) 2008 Road Carolina(12-4) 2008 Road Eagles(9-5-1) 2008 Home Broncos(8-8) 2008 Road Saints(8-8) 2009 Road Patriots(10-6) 2009 Road Cowboys(11-5) 2009 Road Saints(13-3) 2009 Road Panthers(8-8) 2009 Road Giants(10-6) 2010 Road Steelers(12-4) 2010 Road Eagles(10-6) 2010 Home Saints(11-5) 2011 Road Bears(8-8) 2011 Road Bucs(4-12 2011 Home Packers(15-1) 2011 Home Saints(13-3) 2011 Road Texans(10-6) 2011 Road Saints(13-3) That's one losing team, four average 8-8 teams, and fourteen winning teams. So if you think the Chief's can win this game, you would also considering placing a wager that the Chief's go over the 8 wins the books have them at right now.
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GunShard	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Intertops \|
Veteran Joined: Sep 2009 Posts: 1102 Location: United States	#22 Posted: 7/17/2012 9:06:38 PM Falcons play poor on the road. Week 1 in the 2011 season and playoffs.
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SlumdogPicks	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction \|
Prospect Joined: May 2012 Posts: 325 Location: Canada	#23 Posted: 7/17/2012 10:03:24 PM Interesting stats... I'll have to keep an open mind on this game closer to preseason.
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Grimmmm	RSI View Space \| Friends \| Playbook \|
Prospect Joined: Jul 2012 Posts: 35 Location:	#24 Posted: 7/17/2012 10:41:51 PM Winning teams don't lose at home. Essentially to have a winning record if you win your home games(8-0 or 7-1) and split your road games(5-3 or 4-4) you're sitting well at 10-6, 11-5, or 12-4. This is what the falcons have done. They're not 'poor' or 'terrible' on the road. With Matty Ice going 26-4 at home and 17-15 on the road in the regular season they have been a playoff team 3 of the last 4 years with a record of 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, & 10-6. They have played and lost to winning teams in a winning team's home. Winning teams/QBs have come to and lost in their place. All the stats are above and I'll repost a new thread with everything. I love this line, not necessarily this team. This line exists because of the playoff games they've lost(NFC champs Cardinals and SB champs Packers and Giants), the last two road openers they've played(Soldier field , and a OT game in Pitt) and the money ppl lost on those games. KC isn't the NFC champ Cardinals, Superbowl champs Packers or Giants, or the Bears or the Steelers. Their the Chiefs hoping to return a starting qb that had a hand injury, running back, safety, and tight end with knee injuries, no big name offensive coordinators on staff, and a 'new' head coach that lost his job with the Browns... They're KC.
	Posted using a mobile device.quote
DoubleUp4Life	RSI View Space \| Blog \| Friends \| Playbook \| My Sportsbook: 5Dimes \|
Legend Joined: Nov 2007 Posts: 30583 Location: New York	#25 Posted: 7/18/2012 11:43:41 AM i would pass on this game
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