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[NFL Betting] Topic: BEST NFL WEEK 1 VALUES |
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rated91 |
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#1 Posted: 6/24/2012 11:33:27 PM
With regards to NFL week 1 the only games I would consider betting on are games that fall on or around key numbers. Anything 2.5, 3, 3.5, 6.5, 7 or 7.5 - just trying to get on the right side of that 3 or 7 basically.
My NFL GOY is Houston -1.5 over GB in week 6. I expect Houston to at the worst case win and cover by at least a full touchdown, but the Packers are going to be overvalued for most of their games thanks to the public.
WEEK 1 PLAYS:
1.) HOUSTON -7 over MIAMI ( 1pm, Sep 9)
The Houston Texans are my favorite to win the super bowl. This team lost Mario Williams after 5 games last year, Andre Johnson for 9 and Schaub after week 10 and still played at a high level and made a postseason run. Imagine them fully healthy? If Tannehill somehow wins the starting job in Miami it's going to be growing pains opening up against this relentless defense of the Texans, this is going to be a B-L-O-W-O-U-T !!!!!
I'm risking 550 to win 500 on this game. Some books have Houston -6.5, that's excellent line value.
2.) NEW ENGLAND -7 over TENNESSEE
You don't make money over the course of an NFL season betting against Bill Belichick. I hate the guy but he knows how to put the pieces together to win games and make a run at a chip. The only weak spot on this New England team is their 31st ranked pass defense, but with acquiring 2 defensive starters (both LB's) in the 1st round of this draft should take some pressure off the secondary and bolster the coverage and pass rush. The Titans had a horrible season out of Chris Johnson last year and only managed around 89 rush ypg, ranking them 31st in the league. I do like how they added WR Kendall Wright of Baylor, but this defense ranked in the bottom half against the rush last year and 14th against the pass, and will all the screens Bradys going to be pulling out its going to be a long afternoon in Tennessee.
I'm risking 330 to win 300 on this game, again some books have Patriots at -6.5, great value.
3.) St Louis +9.5 over Detroit
I think Detroit is being overvalued here in week 1. Last season Bradford was banged up, he should be ready to go here plus they have upgraded their coaching department by bringing Fisher in. The Rams will be competing for multiple superbowls in the next 3+ years due to the fact that they ripped off Washington in the RG3 deal for all those draft picks (ala Herschel Walker to Minnesota, LOL - which brought Aikman, Irvin, and Emmitt Smith to Dallas), adding the massive run stopping DT Michael Brockers from LSU will help tremendously a defense that ranked 31st against the run last season. Detroit is going to be stepping out with their team from last season for the most part with the same one dimensional look (ranked 4th in passing, but 31st in rushing) with Jahvid Best as their starting RB. I think Detroit can eek out a close win here, but 9.5 or 10 points is simply way too many.
I'm risking 110 to win 100 on this game. |
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mrquija27 |
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#2 Posted: 6/24/2012 11:55:03 PM |
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NickkaJ |
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#3 Posted: 6/25/2012 2:05:38 AM |
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SlumdogPicks |
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#4 Posted: 6/25/2012 5:21:27 PM
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rated91 |
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#5 Posted: 6/25/2012 5:53:10 PM  ) I never meant that they would be contending for the next 3 years. |
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rated91 |
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#6 Posted: 6/25/2012 6:14:35 PM
NO Saints -3 @ Carolina Panthers
This is a surprise. Saints are expected to lay 10 in week 1 then lay a touchdown less in week 2? I liked WR Nick Toon of Wisconsin and was surprised to see the Saints land him in the 4th round. I think he'll fit into the mix nicely (as if there was an more ball to go around with TE Jimmy Graham, RB Darren Sproles, RB Mark Ingram, WR Marques Colston/Devery Henderson/Lance Moore all active targets for Drew Brees). The Panthers secondary is just okay and it was proven last year (especially in the Pro Bowl! of all games) that the best way to stop Cam Newton is not to pursue but to play contain with a cover 3 or two deep zone look. He has trouble reading defenses and is more likely to throw at a receiver instead of throwing to the point of the reception. This team lost to the Saints on January 1 of this year 45-17 and while I don't expect a blowout of that magnitude I expect a Saints win by 3 as a worst case scenario.
I'm wagering probably 300 on the Saints -3, hopefully I'll be able to grab it while it's still there.
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NickkaJ |
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#7 Posted: 6/25/2012 11:47:54 PM |
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BILLSPICKS |
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#8 Posted: 6/26/2012 2:19:30 PM |
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TeamAffinity |
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#9 Posted: 6/26/2012 2:28:18 PM I am taking the Lions +9, however risky it may be. We'll be without a few players for off season stupidity, but it'll be a pivotal jump start for the Lions. Not to mention, it'll be at Ford Field. Coming from someone who went to almost every home game last year, including Monday Night Football, it will make a difference.
Away game at SF during Week 2, however...... |
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rated91 |
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#10 Posted: 6/26/2012 2:34:40 PM
^ Cardinals -3 ? Thats terrible value, I can get them at -1.5 at my local sportsbook and as a pick em on 5dimes. -3 isn't good value when you have a pickem out there, but if you can get Seattle +3 I think there is value in that. Whatever the dog here if I were to play a teaser I would include them in half of it. It would look like this:
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 / Seattle +7.5
I am pretty damn sure there is excellent value in that (as much as you can get in a teaser really) because your taking the favorite of just over a touchdown (Eagles -8.5) and making them a favorite of just under a fg and taking the short dog (Seattle +1.5, but +3 would be awesome if you can get it) and getting them a hook over a touchdown - just finding key numbers and getting on the right sides of them. |
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rated91 |
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#11 Posted: 6/26/2012 2:43:31 PM
But with the Rams you can bet your behind that Steve Fisher is going to field a competitive unit week 1. A healthy Stephen Jackson and Sam Bradford (something we haven't seen in a while) should be moving the chains in Ford Field. They were garbage last season with a 2-12 record with all the injuries but I see them at least keeping this competitive and staying around within a touchdown in this one. The Rams werent bad at pass defense last season, ranking 7th, so looking at the matchups in play I'll take the points here. I'm not calling for the outright win but I'll gladly put the +9 in my pocket in this one. |
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rapistberger84 |
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#12 Posted: 6/27/2012 1:02:42 PM
Welcome to the NFL Andrew Luck.
I like Houston but not your other picks
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winnipeg_pimp |
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#13 Posted: 6/27/2012 1:46:42 PM
hou-0.5
pit+8.5
bal-0
philly-2
chi-3.5
a 10.5 point teaser i really like
Ne+4
hou+3.5
chi+0.5
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runner21 |
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#14 Posted: 6/27/2012 2:29:23 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by winnipeg_pimp:
a 6.5 Point teaser i like
hou-0.5
pit+8.5
bal-0
philly-2
chi-3.5
a 10.5 point teaser i really like
Ne+4
hou+3.5
chi+0.5
New Orleans +1 Houston +3.5 and Chi +0.5 Sounds great
New England terrible on Defense. I know they are winning machines just not comfortable with them until I see they have approved on Defense.
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TreyInventor |
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#15 Posted: 6/28/2012 1:06:20 PM Totally disagree with your Rams pick. In Detroit? Lions have proved that they can SCORE. Rams wont even put up 21. Lions will definately win game 1 and more than likely will cover that DD spread fairly easily. |
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rated91 |
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#16 Posted: 7/1/2012 5:07:46 PM
One game I look at is when the Lions played Minnesota at home last year, week 14 (Sunday, December 11). A shitty Vikings squad hung with the Lions all game long, covering the spread. I not only think the Rams cover the spread, but they have a chance to win the game outright.
Look at how out of control and undisciplined the Lions have been this offseason: besides Suh (who you see training at the Nike facirtying/drinking the offseason away, resulting in numerous arrests and suspensionslities in Oregon, among other places) the bulk of the team was partying and getting arrested.
Third-year cornerback Aaron Berry was the fourth and latest Lions player arrested this offseason, when cops nabbed him for suspicion of DUI on Saturday. Johnny Culbreath also has been arrested this offseason, while Mikel Leshoure and Nick Fairley each have been arrested twice. Leshoure has been suspended two games by the league, and Fairley's punishment is coming soon. |
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rated91 |
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#17 Posted: 7/1/2012 5:10:42 PM
A few teasers I thought might work out would be (any combination of two of these teams on a 6pt teaser):
Eagles -2.5 Houston -1 New England -1 Pittsburgh +7.5 |
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GunShard |
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#18 Posted: 7/13/2012 9:07:30 AM |
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Gold_Rush |
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#19 Posted: 7/19/2012 5:59:43 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by winnipeg_pimp:
a 6.5 Point teaser i like
hou-0.5
pit+8.5
bal-0
philly-2
chi-3.5
a 10.5 point teaser i really like
Ne+4
hou+3.5
chi+0.5
a 5 game teaser? 
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mischkin04 |
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#20 Posted: 7/19/2012 6:53:05 AM
Not that I totally disagree with your picks, but already declaring a GOY in week 6 seems a little out there to me. GL |
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Niners13 |
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#21 Posted: 7/19/2012 3:45:09 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mischkin04: I just can't see the logic in betting on regular season games in June with the uncertainty of player participation. Who knows how many other star players will not be healthy or suspended for off field violations? It's not like lines will change radically before August.
Not that I totally disagree with your picks, but already declaring a GOY in week 6 seems a little out there to me. GL
If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change.
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mischkin04 |
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#22 Posted: 7/20/2012 1:35:43 AM
If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change.
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If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change.
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If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change.
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"If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change."
I meant that lines won't change significantly if the key player is active. For instance, when Lynch's suspension is handed down, I expect the Seahawks to become at least a 3 point dog. Those who prematurely bet Seattle in their opener or OVER in season wins total will probably wish they hadn't. |
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Niners13 |
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#23 Posted: 7/21/2012 7:50:42 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by mischkin04:
If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change.
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If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change.
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If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change.
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"If lines don't change then why does it even matter who's healthy?
That means the players not playing are not worth a line change."
I meant that lines won't change significantly if the key player is active. For instance, when Lynch's suspension is handed down, I expect the Seahawks to become at least a 3 point dog. Those who prematurely bet Seattle in their opener or OVER in season wins total will probably wish they hadn't.
You are wrong. Week 1 lines change a lot, look at last year.
There's always two sides, what about all those who bet UNDER on season wins???
Take a game early depends which side you like and you can't predict line movement. Lynch is not worth many points anyway.
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mischkin04 |
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#24 Posted: 7/24/2012 6:11:41 PM You are wrong. Week 1 lines change a lot, look at last year.
There's always two sides, what about all those who bet UNDER on season wins???
Take a game early depends which side you like and you can't predict line movement. Lynch is not worth many points anyway.
They will change very little before preseason in august as I stated. At least while in training camp, players have a shorter leash where they can't get in as much trouble. Some of you just have to get money down in June/July because that "sure" thing is available.
Take a game early and you're at the risk of being shafted by an irresponsible player. There are many who would disagree with your assessment of Lynch's value. He appears to be the focal point of the Hawks offense.  |
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brad171717 |
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#25 Posted: 7/24/2012 10:57:19 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by rapistberger84:
BEARS BEARS BEARS...easiest bet ever.
Welcome to the NFL Andrew Luck.
I like Houston but not your other picks
I totally agree with you , going ot be a blow out.
I am putting a 1k parlay on eagles and bears to cover for week one. It is going to pay 3,862. ÉASY MONEY!!!!! What everyone think?
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