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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Werker's NFL Futures
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#1
Posted: 6/20/2012 8:42:10 AM
**2011 Season (sides and totals; including playoffs)**
80-53-5

Honestly, I don't like to tie up too much money in futures, but here are a few I like enough to do so. Might be more coming. 

Bears to win the Super Bowl +3000: Don't get me wrong, this is not the scenario I see as close to most likely, but I do see a solid amount of value in this line. They were on track to be a contender last year until they lost Cutler and Forte. This year, they picked up a premier WR and turned a sketchy receiving corps into a strength. BMarsh as split end, Hester(to start)/Jeffery(to finish) as flanker, Bennett in the slot and a solid TE corps along with a WAY above average backfield and a very solid QB makes this a very dangerous offense. Considering they have one of the premier defenses in the league, they are going to be one tough out all year. Obviously, their O-line issues remain as everyone who's reading this post (at least in June) realizes and was surely surprised when they didn't address the situation in the draft. But every team has a flaw. I like the value here. If they win it all 4% of the time, it's a winner. 

Tampa Bay o5 Wins -120: (I got this a few weeks ago and I see from the line movement I'm not the only one who likes this one) This line is ridiculous. This is not a terrible team. They're a lot healthier on defense, which was the reason they were pretty much a joke last year. And on offense, they added serious playmakers at both WR and in the backfield. They are poised to cause trouble in the NFC South. 

New England u12.5 wins -120: This line is ridiculous. It's basically a bet that NE isn't an unstoppable machine. They have tough games @TEN, @BAL, DEN, @SEA, HOU, SF, both BUF games, both NYJ games. 
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#2
Posted: 6/20/2012 11:18:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Werker:

**2011 Season (sides and totals; including playoffs)**
80-53-5

Honestly, I don't like to tie up too much money in futures, but here are a few I like enough to do so. Might be more coming. 

Bears to win the Super Bowl +3000: Don't get me wrong, this is not the scenario I see as close to most likely, but I do see a solid amount of value in this line. They were on track to be a contender last year until they lost Cutler and Forte. This year, they picked up a premier WR and turned a sketchy receiving corps into a strength. BMarsh as split end, Hester(to start)/Jeffery(to finish) as flanker, Bennett in the slot and a solid TE corps along with a WAY above average backfield and a very solid QB makes this a very dangerous offense. Considering they have one of the premier defenses in the league, they are going to be one tough out all year. Obviously, their O-line issues remain as everyone who's reading this post (at least in June) realizes and was surely surprised when they didn't address the situation in the draft. But every team has a flaw. I like the value here. If they win it all 4% of the time, it's a winner. 

Tampa Bay o5 Wins -120: (I got this a few weeks ago and I see from the line movement I'm not the only one who likes this one) This line is ridiculous. This is not a terrible team. They're a lot healthier on defense, which was the reason they were pretty much a joke last year. And on offense, they added serious playmakers at both WR and in the backfield. They are poised to cause trouble in the NFC South. 

New England u12.5 wins -120: This line is ridiculous. It's basically a bet that NE isn't an unstoppable machine. They have tough games @TEN, @BAL, DEN, @SEA, HOU, SF, both BUF games, both NYJ games. 

with you on the Bears ... at 30-1 why not 

Over 5 sounds good on the Buccs, although I am not sure about Schiano in the NFL 

Also like the Pats under ... might be close but 13 wins is tough to achieve 

Take a look at the Bills Over 7/7.5... Team is much improved 


BOL Brother 
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#3
Posted: 6/21/2012 12:48:02 AM
Pats Over

Not even saying this as a Pats fan, they're team is much improved from last year. And I'm sorry, but half of those games aren't tough.

@TEN
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#4
Posted: 6/21/2012 2:20:52 AM
Pats have the easiest schedule in the league. They'll be favored in every one of those games you mentioned. Also, what price are you paying to get 12.5?

I agree with the other two.
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#5
Posted: 6/22/2012 8:55:16 AM
DoubleUp4Life: No one's sure of Schiano, but I don't think he's getting blown out of the water. I like the fact that he's a defensive coach, as the Bucs seriously needed that. I also seriously like Mike Sullivan as their OC. Eli grew by leaps and bounds under him. I expect a similar step forward from Freeman this year. 5 wins is a VERY manageable number, even for a weaker team. 

I remember your o5 last year with the Bills. Still can't believe that almost ended in a push. I like the Bills this year too. They were dangerous last year before Fitz got hurt, and that d-line should give opponents some serious trouble. Just hadn't gotten to posting it, but I'm on it. And BOL to you too, man.

Bills o7.5 -130: The best part about this bet is the schedule. I just wish you could take a midseason season wins bet, 'cause I think they might literally win their last 7 games. These are the games I absolutely expect them to win: KC, @CLE, MIA, @IND, JAC, STL, SEA, @MIA, NYJ. The only games I would be genuinely surprised they win would be @SF, @HOU and @NE. 

nepatriots_12: I seriously discount anyone with a team related name with regard to comments about their team, especially when that person doesn't know the difference between "they're" and "their." That's just a pet peeve of mine. That being said, how are the Pats much improved from last year? I assume, believing this, you'll just put your NFL stake on them winning the Super Bowl at +450 and forget the rest of the season. Because if they truly are much improved, that would be inevitable and let's face it, you're not going to better than quintuple your money betting week after week. And ok, you have fun writing off the Titans.

Dubfire: They do have one of the easiest schedule, I agree, but they still have enough tough games to be comfortable with this number. They can only lose 3 of 16 games. That's TOUGH. Also, I posted the price already.
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#6
Posted: 6/22/2012 9:54:49 AM
love d bears pick....heading to veags at d end of june to drop a few bucks on some teams...so any info/advice is well appreciated....good luck to all
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#7
Posted: 6/22/2012 12:50:22 PM

the pats getting brandon lloyd is gonna be huge...now brady has a vertical threat that he did not have last season, with welker running his usual underneath routes, and gronk and hernandez going over the middle, this offense will be unstoppable (barring any injuries)

defense can only get better, gotta wait and see how they young guys do

i would say 12 wins at the least and 14 at the most this season....all depends how much the defense has improved

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#8
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:08:08 PM
I myself bet against the Patriots in every offseason game last year because I knew they had a bunk defense and where overrated (Werker was that correct us of where?).  I also believe the Patriots will be improved this year with the combonation of those young TE's and yound defense I dont see them getting any worse.  But to bet a team to win 13 games in the NFL is damn near retarded.  Under 12.5 is a good bet no matter how good you think a team is.  And Tenn is a solid offseason lean for week 1. 
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#9
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:28:32 PM
- Broncos over and to win the AFC West.

- Panthers over 7

- Eagles over whatever.


Werker is HANDS DOWN the best NFL capper on this site. That's not even debatable. Show him some respect.


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#10
Posted: 6/22/2012 5:29:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Pats Over

Not even saying this as a Pats fan, they're team is much improved from last year. And I'm sorry, but half of those games aren't tough.

@TEN

Yes, you are only saying this as a Pats fan. 

Much improved? Drafting a bunch of young defenders doesnt improve you that much.
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#11
Posted: 6/22/2012 6:20:05 PM
Guys the defense had some high points to build off of. For one, the pat's red zone defense last year was pretty good if my memory is correct. This doesn't avoid the fact that the pat's defense needs a lot of work, but just something to keep in your mindset for future spread/ml bets.

58% success is a respectable nfl stat, gj bro. I'll be posting very regularly this year, I'll keep an eye out for your garbage.
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#12
Posted: 6/22/2012 6:21:05 PM
Actually I'm kind of in self denial.

They have improved, but I'm not sure if they have improved enough on the defensive end, but its possible.

Patriots held all 3 teams they played in the playoffs to under their team total. (With a lot of help from Billy Cundiff and Lee Evans though.) My point is their defense did improve at the end of the season, but will it hold up for all 16 regular season games?

Going 13-3 is very, very tough. They play in a semi-weak division, but that can be misleading because all 3 teams play the Pats well. Not to mention they could go 11-5 and most likely win the AFC East by 2 games. 

We will see. 
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#13
Posted: 6/23/2012 7:02:28 PM
QBUN: Any futures I'm playing will be posted as I play them. As I said, I don't love to tie up money in futures, so if I don't see a serious discrepancy between a line and what I think it is, I'm just going to lay off. 

raffchfd: Lloyd is a clear improvement on Branch/Ochocinco, but the Brady had the 2nd highest yds/att in the league last year because they didn't go deep too often. Even if Lloyd adds a deep threat, I'm not convinced that his yds/att will rise. 

Their defense should be solid, but I'm entirely unconvinced that there's any reason to think they'll be MUCH better than last year. 

In any event, don't forget that the Colts nearly beat them last year. Same with the Cowboys, the Redskins and the Fins. All I'm saying is that it's incredibly difficult to win 13 games in the NFL. I would not have taken the under 12, just because I think that exactly 12 wins is the most likely total (just in case people were thinking I was claiming they aren't a great team).

mrquija27: Right on.

EW: You're seriously too kind, but thanks. 

I'm just staying away from the AFC West. The news on Manning's health is not instilling in me enough confidence to warrant a season long bet on him. If he's as good as he was and stays healthy, I love it. If he takes his first real shot and is forever retired from football, I hate it. I'd rather take each game as it comes with the Broncos. 

I like the Panthers chances of being competitive, but I do not like their schedule enough to bet them to get to 8-8. They could easily get swept by the NFC East (they got the Skins in Washington), and go 2-4 in division. 

Eagles o10.5 is something I've been considering. Just deciding if I want to root for the Eagles on a weekly basis. I don't think I like it enough to do that to myself.

On the same page with the Pats.

SlumdogPicks: Cool, man. See you around the forum.
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#14
Posted: 6/24/2012 6:17:23 AM
Havent really looked at individual schedules, but I just checked out Carolina and theirs is very tough. Mannings health is a huge factor, but I feel the risk/reward is in favor of Denver. If they can go to the 2nd round with Tebow, sky is the limit for Manning.

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#15
Posted: 6/25/2012 4:46:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by QBUN:

love d bears pick....heading to veags at d end of june to drop a few bucks on some teams...so any info/advice is well appreciated....good luck to all

GO PUCK GO... 

oh and on a side note- I would say that the Lions are a great future OVER 9 .. I also kind of like them as a nice value bet to win teh Super Bowl at + 2500 - Stafford is legit, Megatron is Megatron and that Defense has shown some flashes.. if they shore up their RB this young team may have what it takes to make the playoffs and take Detroit to the promised land for the 1st time in history

Just like another team we are kind of fond of

GO KINGS GO  
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#16
Posted: 6/25/2012 4:48:00 AM
I didnt know Kobe was a Muslim,,,


Da Bears.. Love Cutler, but I like Stafford a bit more.. 

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#17
Posted: 6/25/2012 8:07:52 PM
EW: I don't doubt Denver's upside, but I'm just happy to back them along the way if he proves he's really back and will stay that way. I see no reason to lock up a season bet on such a questionable thing.

Gold_Rush: The Lions are another team with massive upside, but I'm just conservative with season long bets. Any team with Stafford/Megatron is going to compete. I like Young and Pettigrew. I like their D-line, and I don't hate their LB corps. Everyone else is pretty questionable (including coaching). If you read my stuff last year, you know that I made a good amount of money betting on them along the way. I'm happy to do the same this year if they turn out well, but I'm not confident enough to think they get to 10 wins, and I have serious doubts about their ability to win the Super Bowl. I think the price is just about right with maybe a LITTLE value. If their backfield situation clears up in a positive way, I'll reconsider.
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#18
Posted: 6/25/2012 8:21:10 PM

 I also like the Bears odds. Marshall and Bush will really lift that offense.

 Carolina U 7.5 seems like a winner.

 I'm not deciding on Pats right now.          GL

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#19
Posted: 6/25/2012 8:32:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by earthWake:

Havent really looked at individual schedules, but I just checked out Carolina and theirs is very tough. Mannings health is a huge factor, but I feel the risk/reward is in favor of Denver. If they can go to the 2nd round with Tebow, sky is the limit for Manning.

 Amazing how Broncs beat Pitt when no team from their division even deserved to make playoffs. Manning gives them a great chance to repeat as division winners and with a better than 8-8 record and from there who knows.         GL

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#20
Posted: 6/25/2012 10:38:27 PM
mischkin: I'm not playing either side of the Panthers season. They are one of the most unpredictable teams in the league right now. Fair enough about the Pats, though I will say that, at least at my spot, the under 12.5 is now -135, so I'm not sure it has as much value already, and if it gets any worse, I'd stay off it for sure.

It's not THAT amazing that the Broncos won the game. Don't get me wrong, I had the Steelers in that game, but it looking back at what actually happened, the Steelers played fairly terrible football, and Big Ben was a shell of his best possible self there with his injury. The fact that the Steelers refused to blitz Tebow even after team after team showed that was the way to beat him was so frustrating. And a big thing that didn't get as much press as it should have was the fact that Ryan Clark sat out the game. And the Steelers' secondary got ABUSED by Tebow and DT.
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#21
Posted: 6/27/2012 12:29:32 AM
What is the O/U for St. Louis?  They really have only two or three winnable games with their fairly brutal schedule for a last place team. Anything Under 5 or 5.5 would be gold.  My site has not posted win totals yet.
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#22
Posted: 6/28/2012 3:54:08 AM

 I bet the Cowboys at 15-1 to win the NFC as my longshot play,i like the improvements they made to their defense especially in the secondary.Looking at this roster player for player they are loaded with talent and Demarco Murray is healthy this year.YES Romo does do some bone heads plays but he's actually a stronger QB than people think.I feel he might have a strong year with the running game,receivers and improved defense.

     I love Dallas OVER 8 1/2 wins

    The Lions are a interesting team also looking at futures wagers on them.

     After last year ended i thought the Houston Texans were going to be a force this year and i still feel the same way,Wade Phillips will do a wonderful job with the young up and coming talent on defense and A. Foster is a force in the running game.

 

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#23
Posted: 6/28/2012 2:07:25 PM
Diggin the Bears, got them at 42-1 a month back, Pats U looks tasty their schedule really isn't that easy.  11 or 12 wins will still win them the division. BOL this year
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#24
Posted: 6/28/2012 4:49:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sharkman1:

 I bet the Cowboys at 15-1 to win the NFC as my longshot play,i like the improvements they made to their defense especially in the secondary.Looking at this roster player for player they are loaded with talent and Demarco Murray is healthy this year.YES Romo does do some bone heads plays but he's actually a stronger QB than people think.I feel he might have a strong year with the running game,receivers and improved defense.

     I love Dallas OVER 8 1/2 wins

    The Lions are a interesting team also looking at futures wagers on them.

     After last year ended i thought the Houston Texans were going to be a force this year and i still feel the same way,Wade Phillips will do a wonderful job with the young up and coming talent on defense and A. Foster is a force in the running game.

 

 Decent odds on them to win conference, especially with the decline of the Saints. Can both Dez and Miles play a whole season at wideout? If so, I really like their chances. Too bad L. Robinson was lost to Jags. Nine plus wins looks good.    

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#25
Posted: 6/28/2012 4:52:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Werker:

mischkin: I'm not playing either side of the Panthers season. They are one of the most unpredictable teams in the league right now. Fair enough about the Pats, though I will say that, at least at my spot, the under 12.5 is now -135, so I'm not sure it has as much value already, and if it gets any worse, I'd stay off it for sure.

It's not THAT amazing that the Broncos won the game. Don't get me wrong, I had the Steelers in that game, but it looking back at what actually happened, the Steelers played fairly terrible football, and Big Ben was a shell of his best possible self there with his injury. The fact that the Steelers refused to blitz Tebow even after team after team showed that was the way to beat him was so frustrating. And a big thing that didn't get as much press as it should have was the fact that Ryan Clark sat out the game. And the Steelers' secondary got ABUSED by Tebow and DT.

   

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