Messages

Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Draft 2012 Props
EddieGordo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
EddieGordo
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 969
Location:
#1
Posted: 4/19/2012 1:54:27 PM
All lines available at Sportsbook.com and Hollywood sportsbook.  Unfortunately all of these are capped @ $100 apiece right now, but if you pull some strings they will let you get bets down at both books (If you don't pull strings, they will not let you bet at both and cancel your action at one site).

Limits will increase to $500 on Draft Day so all of these that haven't moved too much I will bang again on Draft Day, provided Odds are still decent.   Here are bets that I've made and what the lines have moved to.  Unfortunately lines move VERY quick, so a lot of these are not available, but posting them anyway:

# Of QBs taken in Round 1.......Under 3.5 (-170)

This comes down to Brandon Weeden.  I have good info that says there is no way he cracks first round.  Assuming Luck/RG3/Tannehill only guys who go round one.  This has moved to -250 as of rignt now.


Who will be drafted first......Whitney Mercilus +115/Stephen Gilmore -130

Gilmore is shooting up draft boards and rumor has it he could easily be a top 10 pick.  Mercilus is lumped in with a group of pass rushers all of similar caliber (Courtney Upshaw, Nick Perry, Quinton Coples) the proliferation of which will certainly cause some of them to slide to mid 20's where I predict Mercilus ends up.   Gilmore moved to -160 last time I checked and it's currently off the board which is a good sign.  If it comes back, bang Gilmore.


Will Miami Dolphins select Tannehill First round?  Yes = -170/No +130

Browns aren't gonna take him 4.  They might try and trade up from 22 if he slides to like 11 or so, but that won't happen.  Dolphins need Tannehill to give the fans a bone.  They struck out on Peyton, Flynn, RG3 basically every possible decent QB they could have had this off-season.  Please don't tell me they are gonna enter next season with David Gerrard and Matt Moore as 1 and 2.  Dolphins need Tannehill as much as any team needs any player in this draft.  Wish I had gotten this at better value, but its gonna happen.  Will def be adding more to this on draft day.

Kendall Wright........Over pick 22.5 (-160)

Very deep WR draft.  Looks like Mike Floyd will still be around in the 15-20 range and NO_ONE is taking Wright over Floyd.  Hell Stephen Hill could go before Wright.  Only team I could see taking Wright is Bengals 21, if not he might slide to second round. 

Number of Running Backs taken in Round 1........Over 1.5
(+180)


Basically do you think Doug Martin goes round 1? I do.  Scouts love him and I think he goes to Broncos at pick 25.  This opened at +250 and is now at +130 meaning lot of smart action on the over.  Nice payout too. 


Will Tampa Bay select Trent Richards #5 overall?  No = -200

No they won't.  Because he's either going to Browns 4 or Rams will trade up to 4 to take him.  This opened at +115!!!!  Now at -300.  Crazy movement.

Over 3.5 WR/TEs taken in Round 1 (-200)
Blackmon and Floyd are locks.  Wright and Hill could sneak into end of round 1.  Fleener prob going end of round one.  Lot of juice to lay, but very good chance this hits.  Now at -350.

Who is drafted first.......Courtney Upshaw -250/ Nick Perry +170

Bit of a value flier here.  Scouts are unimpressed with Upshaw's athleticism and its looking like his stock is sinking.  Read MULTIPLE reports recently that he could sink to second round.  Perry's stock is rising, and he could go as high as 17 or so.  Good value here imo.

There was also a "Who goes first Luke Kuechly/Quinton Coples" with Kuechly at even money at one point, but I missed that one and they took it off the board.

They most likely will be adding some more in next few days....usually along the lines of "Will Big 12 have o/u 5.5 players drafted first round" which are usually pretty exploitable.  

Sorry that a lot of these lines have moved since I hit them, but I'm just offering advice and even though a lot of them are pretty juiced I am very confident that most will hit, as I always slaughter the draft.  Went 7 for 8 in Draft Props last year, all maxed, so hoping for another good year. 
quote
Peraski send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Peraski
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 300
Location:
#2
Posted: 4/22/2012 2:00:28 PM
You see the value of the perry prop? Now at +225.... took poe before reiff at +175
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
wallstreetcappers send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
wallstreetcappers
Participation Meter
Covers Linesmen
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 49960
Location: United States
#3
Posted: 4/22/2012 6:33:57 PM
Why are you listing numbers you got when they arent current lines?


quote
EddieGordo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
EddieGordo
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 969
Location:
#4
Posted: 4/22/2012 7:49:33 PM
B/c i still like the bets even though they are not available at prices I got them at.

These things move instantly, I've seen them posted, hit them within seconds of being posted, and lines move 15 minutes later.

No way I could possibly update a thread in real time with the bets and people could see in time to grab same lines.  However bets are still available just at worse prices, which I would still play them all at for the most part
quote
SupFresh send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
SupFresh
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Jun 2010
Posts: 154
Location:
#5
Posted: 4/24/2012 9:08:01 PM
GL Eddie!

I wished I saw this thread earlier!
quote
EddieGordo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
EddieGordo
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 969
Location:
#6
Posted: 4/25/2012 8:05:47 PM
More Bangers.....Just placed.....lines still all active:

Under 5.5 Pac 10 players 1st round @ -150.......Luck/Kalil/ DeCastro/Martin/Fleener........anyone else?  Doubtful......Fleener might not even go first....


Melvin Ingram over pick 11.5 -160 .........Ingram's stock is sliding.  Pretty much a guarantee he won't go top 10 and should go around 15-18 or so.

Michael Floyd under pick 13.5 -150..........No way he gets past Cardinals at 13.

Michael Brockers picked before Courtney Upshaw -225......Brockers a lock for top 20.  As mentioned above Upshaw should slide to late 20's.

Fletcher Cox under 9.5 -240.......  A lot of juice, but this guy's stock is soaring.   Could easily go 6 to the Rams. 

Chandler Jones under 16.5  even .......Guy is shooting up mocks.  One of the fastest rising players on any mock.  Lot of value, b/c as of a week or two ago he was not mocked in top 20s.

quote
Peraski send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
Peraski
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 300
Location:
#7
Posted: 4/25/2012 10:25:41 PM
Blackmon going 4th to clev (big mistake- ahould take richardson)... on bovada blackmon 4th to clev ml is +550... kuchley is +750 10th to buffalo
Posted using a mobile device.
quote
dytide send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
dytide
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 2976
Location: California
#8
Posted: 4/25/2012 11:24:11 PM
I like your Michael Floyd bet.


quote
andy88c send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
andy88c
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 1981
Location: Virginia
#9
Posted: 4/25/2012 11:25:19 PM
watch out on the qb under 3.5 bet...nfl network (lombardi) is reporting that NE's 31 could very well be traded to cleveland or denver (interesting).
quote
thisguyiswise send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
thisguyiswise
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 6899
Location: Wisconsin
#10
Posted: 4/25/2012 11:41:23 PM
kalil 3rd pick -130

richardson not 4th overall pick +200
quote
EddieGordo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
EddieGordo
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 969
Location:
#11
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:01:35 AM

Both NFL Network's Mike Mayock and Michael Lombardi agreed on Path to the Draft Wednesday night that Syracuse DE Chandler Jones is the best defensive player in the 2012 draft.

"I'm gonna make a statement," said Mayock. "Three years from now, I'm gonna say Chandler Jones is the best defensive player to come out of this draft." Chimed in Lombardi, "I think what Mike Mayock said is right. He is the best defensive player in the draft." Mayock recently bumped Jones to No. 9 overall in his top-100 rankings, and to No. 1 among defensive ends. Lombardi went so far as to suggest Jones could be a top-ten pick.
quote
onTHEfritz send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
onTHEfritz
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 956
Location: Ohio
#12
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:20:25 AM
Kalil to be the 3rd pick is up to +105 
quote
senbet
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
senbet
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 278
Location: Florida
#13
Posted: 4/26/2012 2:12:21 AM
I like the Dolphin/Tannehill bet a lot.

Every mock draft I've seen has it that way.

Don't think the Dolphins can mess it up, unless some other team trades up for Tannehill which I don't see happening

It almost looks too good
quote
gilligansisland
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gilligansisland
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2041
Location: Massachusetts
#14
Posted: 4/26/2012 10:26:14 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andy88c:

watch out on the qb under 3.5 bet...nfl network (lombardi) is reporting that NE's 31 could very well be traded to cleveland or denver (interesting).

I think NE will trade one of it's first round picks but why would Denver take a qb in the first round?

quote
gilligansisland
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
gilligansisland
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 2041
Location: Massachusetts
#15
Posted: 4/26/2012 10:26:53 AM
Good luck Eddie
quote
GunShard
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Intertops |
GunShard
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 1334
Location: United States
#16
Posted: 4/26/2012 11:02:10 AM
Nice bets.
quote
EddieGordo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
EddieGordo
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 969
Location:
#17
Posted: 4/26/2012 1:50:08 PM
Limits now $300

Maxed out the Ingram over 11.5 (now -210), Chandler Jones under 16.5 (now -140 after being at -160 for a bit last night, and added:

Quentin Coples "over pick 12.5" -180 maxed.......He might slide into the late 20's, stock is sinking fast. 


Got some great lines.  Got the "over 1.5 rbs 1st round" @+180  now at -180

Chandler Jones -140 under 16.5 is biggest steal on the board. EVERYONE SHOULD GO POUND THIS NOW AND THANK ME LATER
quote
phillyryder send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
phillyryder
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Feb 2011
Posts: 30
Location: Illinois
#18
Posted: 4/26/2012 3:57:15 PM
"Under 5.5 Pac 10 players 1st round @ -150.......Luck/Kalil/ DeCastro/Martin/Fleener........anyone else?  Doubtful......Fleener might not even go first...."

What about Nick Perry? You suggested above you thought he could go as high as 17....

My book offered Under 6.5 @ -150 and I pounded that....
quote
bigb650 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
bigb650
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 713
Location:
#19
Posted: 4/26/2012 4:34:14 PM
SEC players in the first round 10.5 -200 I am leaning over hardcore, but the juice is holding me back!
quote
JackSmack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
JackSmack
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 11825
Location: South Carolina
#20
Posted: 4/26/2012 4:48:48 PM
ive heard some chat here carolina might trade the #9 pick, gonna throw 25 bucks on it.
quote
JackSmack send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
JackSmack
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 11825
Location: South Carolina
#21
Posted: 4/26/2012 4:50:47 PM
the trade the pick props are interesting, i mean if a #7 trades with a #4 then that is two winners. Im tempted to take a bunch of them, they are all +350 to +550
quote
EazyFBaby send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
EazyFBaby
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 2932
Location: United States
#22
Posted: 4/26/2012 6:52:01 PM
Chad jones is now up to -200, you think its worth the juice?
quote
EddieGordo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
EddieGordo
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 969
Location:
#23
Posted: 4/26/2012 7:08:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EazyFBaby:

Chad jones is now up to -200, you think its worth the juice?


Shoulda grabbed it at -140 like I did!

But yes limit is $300, so you can make a cool $150 off it.  Free money imo
quote
JerryWrasse send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
JerryWrasse
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 1981
Location: Florida
#24
Posted: 4/26/2012 7:08:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by EddieGordo:




Browns aren't gonna take him 4.  They might try and trade up from 22 if he slides to like 11 or so, but that won't happen.  Dolphins need Tannehill to give the fans a bone.  They struck out on Peyton, Flynn, RG3 basically every possible decent QB they could have had this off-season.  Please don't tell me they are gonna enter next season with David Gerrard and Matt Moore as 1 and 2.  Dolphins need Tannehill as much as any team needs any player in this draft.  Wish I had gotten this at better value, but its gonna happen.  Will def be adding more to this on draft day.



Dolphins management definitely struck out on Mannin. But I dont get why it is hard for people to think maybe the Dolphins didnt covet Flynn as badly as perceived. If Philbin made a big enough pitch they would of got him. And I think Tannehill does not go 8th. He'll be available but I lean Coples. 

BOL
quote
EddieGordo send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
EddieGordo
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 969
Location:
#25
Posted: 4/26/2012 7:09:14 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phillyryder:

"Under 5.5 Pac 10 players 1st round @ -150.......Luck/Kalil/ DeCastro/Martin/Fleener........anyone else?  Doubtful......Fleener might not even go first...."

What about Nick Perry? You suggested above you thought he could go as high as 17....

My book offered Under 6.5 @ -150 and I pounded that....


Ya good call lol.......actually this will still hit, b/c Perry looking like early second rounder now.  Most likely my Upshaw/Perry bet will lose b/c Upshaw will go first....

And I forgot about Perry when I made that Pac12 bet, but still should hit b/c Fleener might go 2nd and Perry almost certainly is.

Got it at under 5.5.......now at 5.......what a steal!
quote
Forum Index : NFL Betting : Messages Page 1 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.