Fundamental Question: Can the "public" be right?

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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Fundamental Question: Can the "public" be right?
touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/28/2012 4:10:45 PM
OK.  Working under the assumption that in general the public will more often lose than win, I pose the fundamental question we've asked ourselves a thousand times through the years:  Will the "public" be right?

The first problem I have with this is the definition of the "public". Twenty years ago we had to watch the line move, ask around, and then try to go against who all of our golf buddies said was the "obvious" pick.  (Just like the scene in "Let It Ride", the idea was to do what Jay Trotter did, which was absolutely cross out every horse that somebody at the track said was their "lock".)  We'd imagine what would happen if we walked down the street and asked everyone we ran into who they liked in the game.  But at that point you must ask yourself, am I trying to shade the better known / perceived better team, or figuring out who people are actually BETTING.  

These days we're in information overload.... every Larry, Earl and Gus think they know exactly who is on what, and to what extent. We have line tracking, multiple websites reporting % of bets placed on each side, % of money on each side, as well as casino personnel on radio shows and podcasts TELLING us which side the public is on, and more importantly which side the "sharps" are on. (It is in this scenario that most of us also make the mistake of assuming the public and sharps MUST be on opposite sides, which is also not the case. See Giants at Packers and Broncos at Patriots two weeks ago.) 

With all of the information fed to us, everyone is now an expert. Your next door neighbor now greets you in the morning while picking up the morning paper with "I don't know.... seems like a lot of people on the dog in this one".  Everyone analyzes and is trying to get "against the public". But what happens when a team like the Giants makes it all the way to the Super Bowl?  Well, first of all, they're based in New York, which guarantees a huge following and huge media coverage.  Next, they're the "hot" team.... following a complete blueprint that they followed 4 years ago (and that Green Bay followed last year) that led to Super Bowl wins.  Then you hear stats that say the last 9 wild card teams in the Super Bowl have covered the spread. What happens when they get matched up with a team like the Patriots, that have been the most covered and well known teams over the past decade?  Does Vegas have to account for factors like "Billiceck with 2 weeks to prepare" or "Brady with revenge" or "hard to beat a team 3 straight" that EVERYONE knows about and have seen work for years?  

I think the answer ultimately lies locally, not globally, on this one.  If a hundred people are asked who they like in the Patriots/Bucs game, more people are always going to say the Patriots.  More people are always going to have more information about a New York team than about the Carolina Panthers.  More people are automatically going to like the team with the better quarterback (which worked like a charm during the regular season to a HUGE percentage, by the way), and more people are usually going to like the favorite.  So when I say locally, I think the "public" not being right has to be narrowed down to a small group of people you target as being wrong.  Call them what you want, but it's just the guys you don't feel are going to have the right side.  Maybe it's your barber. Maybe it's your boss.  Maybe it's your best friend.  

(Last week was a perfect example.  Here in Northern California, everyone liked the Niners.  Everyone thought the Niners weren't getting the respect they deserved.  Everyone thought the Niners defense would prevail.  Everyone laid the points.  And everyone lost.  From what we heard around the rest of the country, "everyone" was on the Giants.  That's what the percentages said too.  And the line moves.  So in the end, the public did win.  And the worst part is that they won on a muffed punt, fumble, and the ghost of forward progress, so was the public RIGHT or did the public just get away with one?) 

My belief is that "the public doesn't win" and "the public won't win this side" are two entirely different questions.  How many people actually win in the long run?  Few.  But I believe that comes from pressing, chasing, halftime bets, props, totals.... poor money management.... basically every other way of getting action aside from just the opinion of who is going to cover.  Plus, some people just have a knack for losing. 

But can "the public be right"?  I would say most definitely.  It happens all the time. Looking at caribsports.com or sportsbook.com or scoresandodds.com, the team with the larger percentage often covers.   What we don't see is what other bets those same people place, because for every winning side, there's a losing total or an NBA game just waiting to take our money.  

But what do YOU do about it?   Do you go with the smaller percentage because it's "against the public"?   Do you go against your barber? Do you go with the sharps you've heard about on the radio?  Do you go with a tout who tells you he's won 21 straight Super Bowls?  Do you go against a tout who you've tracked and seems like a proven loser?  Or do you scrap everything and just go with your gut?  

Not asking who you have in this game.... but interested in your thoughts.  
chargerfan10 PM chargerfan10
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Posted: 1/28/2012 4:20:03 PM
This is a great thread.  I find that there is no "sharp" side rather there is only the right side.

Why all of a sudden are people so infatuated with public perception?  It's only because this is the last largest game of the year.  I don't think there would be too many threads about Carolina vs TB in week 9 of the regular season.

Public was all over the Giants Wild Card as a fave and as a dog vs GB.  WTf?  The public isn't supposed to win.  It happens!

The 2007-2008 Giants and 2008-2009 Cards were both public dogs and they both covered in the biggest game of the year.  I never thought in 20 yrs of doing this would 2 public dogs cover back to back super bowls.

Based on my experience, public dogs have a waaay better chance at covering than public faves.

Good luck to all. I will be on Gmen + whatever
veronica27 PM veronica27
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Posted: 1/28/2012 4:23:45 PM

the public is right the majority of the time if the fav is good .. with what you are asking though ? can they be right ? well , you may need to re-phrase your question/thinking .. how ? well , the question you are asking is leaving out that millions of people will be right as well that picked the pats ... so who cares if 60% or 40% ended up being right .. in a way it is irrelevant .

now factors to make what i said bs >> that the game is fixed .. if so then who knows who Tony Montana has yanked in the backroom .. we dont know and never would know .

the public ? if a betting syndicate wagers more $ than we can even figure out how to write down on paer and they were on the giants ? then who know .. the bigger picture COULD BE about how much $$ is wagered on each side than the actual %%%%%s .. that's just off the top of my head .. is not rocket science but i guess everyone will continue to disagree nonetheless .. lmao   

the % and the actual $ wagered are 2 complely different cats . % would usually be on the fav .. you typing this would make me think it was sooooo strange like it was 80% - 20 % or something ... the %s are not even that unbalanced .. gl

veronica27 PM veronica27
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Posted: 1/28/2012 4:34:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by chargerfan10:

   I find that there is no "sharp" side rather there is only the right side.

i agree . people can only call it a true sharp play if it is actually good . (when they get the evidence to back the opriginal theory that that team was indeed a sharp play ) ie >> whenever someone goes against the fav , and the % show fav 75% dog 25%   if the dog cashes ? ooh yeah it was a sharp play .. talking about this is like going in the kitchen and flipping pancakes .. and i say okay your turn , you fliep it , whoop , my turn .. the debate will rage on til the end of time .. and the only time we can call a play sharp is if it happens to win and the %s shown were going against the grains %s ...

to go against the grain (the fav ats) in a leauge of parity with dogs ? well we all know that is always a sound strategy .

veronica27 PM veronica27
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Posted: 1/28/2012 5:01:11 PM

the more i think about it though .. why would the tony montana types even mess with such a high profile game .. for what ? might as well have your influence on low profile games .. ones that will not be so scrutinized .. ones no one cares about .. like 50% of the nba games .. lol   honestly i dont think it will be a fix factor in this sb .. why i think that .. just do . high profile .. remember the steelers in 05 sb , how fixed that game was .. lmao    poor sea

we would all like to know certain things for sure right ? well , one thing i can say for sure ? that call in the nyg at gb game to try and let gb get back in it in the 1st half.. yeah , that was blatant cheating on the refs part .. WE ALL KNOW IT WAS A FUMBLE AND SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE GIANTS BALL . sooooo ? how do you get over things like that or put any reason to it ? you try and let it go .. you try and say ahh , the ref was not dirty in gb favor .. he just didnt get a good angle .. you try and convince yourself it was just a blown call .. him getting to look at it all by his lonesome and all .. it was a fumble and a total game changer at the time .. we all know this , so if you think it wasnt dirty call and sleep better because of it thats fine .. but ? we have to look at it for what it really is >>> to prepare for future matchups .

will this game have the fix factor ? i sure as hell hope not !   gl

earthWake PM earthWake
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Posted: 1/28/2012 5:03:33 PM
Well considering 80% were on the Thunder last night and they covered easily, anything can happen.
veronica27 PM veronica27
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Posted: 1/28/2012 5:22:47 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by earthWake:

Well considering 80% were on the Thunder last night and they covered easily, anything can happen.

yep , and if the warriors +4 was $$ then that would be LABELED A SHARP PLAY . lol   it was no good so it falls into the category of just another simple away fav that was $$  

vanzack PM vanzack
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Posted: 1/28/2012 5:38:38 PM
And the chase for the great white whale continues......
veronica27 PM veronica27
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Posted: 1/28/2012 5:43:11 PM
btw nice piece man ! i wont try and answer all those questions you asked , I will leave it up to some other gurus . but to take a stab at the last q you asked >> it depends on what game it is in question ... the sb really is just 1 game no different than any other . it always comes down to them making plays on the field . refs influence the game too much though .. in mlb the home plate umpire is God . really it should just come down to the plays made or not made on the field to = the result but a large  of the time if was really watch a game from start to finish it is always some other factor other than the main on >> players/coaches performance that has a big impact of the final result . we all know players pointshave ,, hey , ITS AMERICA MAN , THE LAND OF OPPURTUNITY !   the opps are never ending , kinda like a never ending water supply when you might live in the desert .. never dry , always one more opp to make more $$ , think they aint !
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/28/2012 6:07:03 PM
you can change public to majority or public perception.

Either way, it's a very small edge.
Niners13 PM Niners13
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Posted: 1/28/2012 6:11:49 PM
http://www.statsprofessor.blogspot.com/p/stats.html

Check these out, maybe it will answer some of your questions.


touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/29/2012 12:18:37 AM
Interesting site, thanks.  
MFM85 PM MFM85
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Posted: 1/29/2012 1:45:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Niners13:

http://www.statsprofessor.blogspot.com/p/stats.html

Check these out, maybe it will answer some of your questions.

  THANKS.
DTBrowns PM DTBrowns
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Posted: 1/29/2012 2:06:11 AM
I have certain indicators that I developed over time to help me identify when I think a side or total is a "Heavy Public Fave".

All they are is a combo of line moves, public percentage movement from sportsbooks sites and 'closing' percentages (which are actually 12 hours before kickoff).

Is it exact science? No. But I don't think anyone will ever have a crystal ball for who the pubic or sharps or on.

I don't rigidly bet ON plays from my system, just as I don't 100% FADE when they fit the play AGAINST profile. It's just a guideline and all I know is that they are consistently in the 60% range the past few years, which is good enough for me.
nc1capper PM nc1capper
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Posted: 1/29/2012 10:08:03 AM
excellent right up- as several said the winning side is the right side- and sometime the square side is indeed the right side - still crunchin this one myself
touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/30/2012 1:57:28 AM
And as the week has gone along we've seen over 65% of early money on Giants "driving the line down" from 3.5 to 3 and even to 2.5 some places. 

Now line has seemed to have settled a bit and the percentage of Giants bets has dropped.... first to the high 50's and now to as low as 53% on one site. 

Will there be more people on the Pats by game time ????
ironlionzion722 PM ironlionzion722
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Posted: 1/30/2012 2:42:41 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by nc1capper:

excellent right up- as several said the winning side is the right side- and sometime the square side is indeed the right side - still crunchin this one myself

Exactly

 

GunShard PM GunShard
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Posted: 1/30/2012 6:28:04 AM

Critical thinking: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OLPL5p0fMg

My own important rules for gambling:

#1. Money management / Bankroll management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% to 10% of your bankroll for each bet.

#2. Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.

#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.

#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust the lines and value accordingly.

#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.

#7. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.

#8. Never play Parlays. This gives the house the edge.

#9. Teasers are profitable. Especially on divisional games.

#10. Pay attention to home field advantage. Teams that travel from a west coast team to the east coast is 6-30 SU.

Here are betting styles I took from someone on the internet:

1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.

2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.

3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?

4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...

GunShard PM GunShard
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Posted: 1/30/2012 6:56:44 AM

You are focusing on the Public and Sharps.

But what you should be focusing on is the line makers / casino / house, whatever you want to call them.

I believe that the line makers are making the most money off the super bowl from the prop bets (coin flip and gatorade color bath) these are trap bets. The public can win.

The goal of the casino is to make the most money off the public.

Let's say a total of 10 people. 5 people bet on the Patriots, 5 people bet on the Giants, both ATS bets, each person risking $100 to win back $191. Total money pot is $1000.

Ok, now let's say the Patriots win. 5 x $191 is $955. $955 goes back the the public, the $45 goes to you, your casino makes a profit of $45 off the public.

If 4 people bet on the Giants, 6 people bet on the Patriots. The public wins.

If 5 people bet on the Giants, 5 people bet on the Patriots, The casino wins.

If 6 people bet on the Giants, 4 people bet on the Patriots, The casino wins.

The fact that when you risk $100, you are not doubling your money to $200. It's usually $191 on either side, this gives the casino the house edge. Depending on how the public is dumping their money, the value can go above $200 in the publics favor. 

There's line movement, but there's also value movement.

GunShard PM GunShard
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Posted: 1/30/2012 7:10:36 AM

As of right now, most of the public is the Giants side is to risk $100 to win back $180. While the Patriots side is to risk $100 to win back $205. The casinos are making profit here.

touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/30/2012 7:27:58 AM
thanks for the time and effort shard....  good luck 
worthashot PM worthashot
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Posted: 1/30/2012 10:54:19 AM
Congrats on a clearly written essay devoid of spelling, grammatical, or usage errors.  (Except for a few comma faults.) That is a rarity.

I truly believe point spread players would be so much better off if they payed no attention to the "public/sharps" angle.  I don't think it is a valid concept.
MJ2345 PM MJ2345
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Posted: 1/30/2012 11:03:20 AM
The public does win alot of times but thye do lose more times than they win!!
touchdownjaysus PM touchdownjaysus
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Posted: 1/30/2012 11:08:14 AM

@ worthashot....  thanks for the grammatical compliments.  

If I was going to take up that much of people's time to read the post, the least I could do was make it legible!  

i am being swayed your way on the public vs. sharps arguement.... like i mentioned in my write up, i think it's more valuable to have a few reliable sources in your inner circle that can guide you.  Either that, or just go with your gut and know long term you won or lost on your own volition. 

GunShard PM GunShard
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Posted: 1/30/2012 10:57:53 PM

It's true that the public loses more than they win.

Fading the public is figuring out when the public loses.

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