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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Are teasers still a sucker bet?
veronica27
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veronica27
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#51
Posted: 1/26/2012 9:24:33 AM
okay since nobody asked , lol  in week 16 it was sd , bolts was fricken 9.5 at the lions . lol looked for them to trun the corner or at least play a close game .. ended up being 38 - 10 lions . talk about getting hit in the head with no suspense .. but my real big miss that week that i had was broncos +4 that were blown out at the bills , yes , the bills lol 40 - 14 ..  week 15 losses were nyg and titans . titans at the colts and texans at home with cam killing them ... okay my fix is a little better now , i like talking about it .. insert emoticon of a table full of pan pizza with all the toppings and a big bowl of salad ! haha
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MJ2345
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#52
Posted: 1/26/2012 9:56:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by veronica27:

dude , my record for teams i like as high % plays on 7 pt T's went 73 - 16 week 4 - 17 .. i went perfect only 4 times .. started in week 4 with the high % to tease teams writting it down .. it went like this rec wise .. 

  high % to tease record week by week

week 4 > 7 - 0

week 5 > 4 - 1

week 6 > 6 - 0

week 7 > 5 - 2

week 8 > 5 - 0

week 9 > 5 - 2

week 10 > 6 - 2

week 11 > 4 - 1

week 12 > 6 - 1

week 13 > 5 - 3

week 14 > 4 - 0

week 15 > 5 - 2

week 16 > 6 - 1

week 17 > 5 - 0

is interseting to say the least .. depends on how many teasers you put in huh .. and how many teams on each .




Well if you were using a 2 team teaser at $100 unit at -120 and boxed all them every week like the first week you would have had bet 21 teasers!


week 4 +2100
week 5 +120
week 6 +1500
week 7 -320
week 8 +1000
week 9 -320
week 10 +380
week 11 +120
week 12 +780
week 13 -1160
week 14 +600
week 15 -320
week 16 +780
week 17 +1000

Total +5980


Like I said earlier in the post if you did this with the top 12 teams this year you would have been up 23,000+

Moral of the story dont tease mediocre/bad teams!!
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#53
Posted: 1/26/2012 9:59:48 AM
Great input MJ.   Already looking forward to Sept. 2012, when i can play teasers "legally" in NJ.  
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#54
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:02:10 AM
nope this is my teaser play for the SB..it will hit
NFL [101] NY GIANTS +16-125 (B+13)
Feb 05NFL [101] TOTAL o42-110 (B+13) (NY GIANTS vrs NEW ENGLAND)
Feb 05NFL [102] NEW ENGLAND +10+105 (B+13)
Feb 05NFL [102] TOTAL u68-110 (B+13) (NY GIANTS vrs NEW ENGLAND)
Risking 2000.00 USD To Win 1500.00 USD
Ticket#: 9188787

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#55
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:03:58 AM
and dont call me stupid because ive done that tease multiple times... i dont think any team wins by more than a td .. in fact i think it will be a 3 pt game. also i think it will by over 42 and 68 with no problem
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#56
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:07:24 AM
You must hit 56.5% to break even when paying -130 on tease.
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veronica27
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#57
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:12:53 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJ2345:




Well if you were using a 2 team teaser at $100 unit at -120 and boxed all them every week like the first week you would have had bet 21 teasers!


week 4 +2100
week 5 +120
week 6 +1500
week 7 -320
week 8 +1000
week 9 -320
week 10 +380
week 11 +120
week 12 +780
week 13 -1160
week 14 +600
week 15 -320
week 16 +780
week 17 +1000

Total +5980


Like I said earlier in the post if you did this with the top 12 teams this year you would have been up 23,000+

Moral of the story dont tease mediocre/bad teams!!

wow , so how much would i had to wager per sunday ? my brain is on meltdown .. haha  i would have 3 teams and up .. i know is a lot of figuring . i do 3 teamser and 5 teamers . i feel like i should be able to go 5 - 0 with good % .. doing them in 2's is toooo small for me , but probably smarter if i can go a high % for that week .. one week i went 24 - 1 with thesers , most of them 5 teamers , was week 14 . sticking to who you really like is big too . to do that you have to have some confidence .. to execute that one cat into actual $ plays ..

so what would the profit of been if I did all 5 teamers with the ones I did .. is 8 week i did 6 or more teams .. if it is too much trouble that's cool .. thanks 

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#58
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:14:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Squeektab:

You must hit 56.5% to break even when paying -130 on tease.


If thats true if you took the top 12 teams they were hitting 74+% and shows why you would have been up 23k
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veronica27
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#59
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:16:23 AM
in 8 weeks i did 6 or more teams .. typo .. never mind , those weeks there were some not soo good rec so nothing special .. i like to stretch it to 3 selections at the least to get +odds .. so many recipes for failure huh , if i just went with 2 , is hard to miss . is crazy .
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#60
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:22:00 AM
Veronica,
Using 2 team teaser the most teasers you would have had boxing them would have had 28 in week 10 and 13.But the lowest amt of teasers would have been 10 in week 14.So basically if you boxed them you would be risking between 1200-3300 a week


What are your odds on 3 team and 5 team teasers??
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#61
Posted: 1/26/2012 10:33:09 AM
So teasers can be very profitable if like LIppsman also said you abide by a few rules!!So I think what we have learned here from some good input from posters is some good rules1

1.Cap the game first
2.Dont use mediocre or bad teams only good teams or the best teams.
3.Dont play teams in bad situations only teams in good situations
4.And this should be first prolly money mangement

Anything else Lipps,Veronica or anyone!!


I am thinking back now that the fav off a bye i have been winning on for 4-5 yrs at about 70+%.I will have to look back and see the % if i teased the fav off a bye and see if they fell into that window to up the % to maybe 80-90%


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veronica27
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#62
Posted: 1/26/2012 12:45:46 PM

cool , well those #s (rec with high % to tease in effect using say 5 selections) would always be about the same say over a 10 yr period .. always a chance could have some bad weeks .. but ... overall i could hit high tacking pts on .. and a good % , say 35% of the time i would not even need it to be teased , would be good with the reg spread .. esp with  teamers . 2 and 3 team 7 pt teasers is safe no doubt . depends on what kind of year as well , if dogs barking big time and you tease dogs .. anyway , ty  later ! i

i have the last 7 yrs performance with that cat .. was doing it back in 99 , 2000 , 2001 as well . one way to put into light an actual 3 team 7 pt teaser is think about the parlay cards where you have to pick at least 3 wit hthe regular spread .. and how no one hits ..and get bad shady lines , tweaked by a pt , bad lines ... well imagine if they could tack a td on and you actually get a push with a tie .. lol the profit would be less but people would actually win instead of losing .. putting it in light ? no one would pay out parlay teaser cards , say on the street or in your neighborhood , or at work .. they pass out garbage that you might as well just say here's my donation when you hand him the $ with the tickets .

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veronica27
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#63
Posted: 1/26/2012 12:54:19 PM
no one would pass out parlay teaser cards .. is to ez to get em with the rules being you have to pick at least 3 , with option of up to 9 . lmao  with the spread ! sweeet .. talkin bout who you like , ahh give me the cboys , pack and saints , oooh yeah baby ! who kills it ? 1 of em .
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#64
Posted: 1/26/2012 1:57:27 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJ2345:

So teasers can be very profitable if like LIppsman also said you abide by a few rules!!So I think what we have learned here from some good input from posters is some good rules1

1.Cap the game first
2.Dont use mediocre or bad teams only good teams or the best teams.
3.Dont play teams in bad situations only teams in good situations
4.And this should be first prolly money mangement

Anything else Lipps,Veronica or anyone!!


I am thinking back now that the fav off a bye i have been winning on for 4-5 yrs at about 70+%.I will have to look back and see the % if i teased the fav off a bye and see if they fell into that window to up the % to maybe 80-90%


That pretty much covers it.  But something to add is not to cross  0 on your teaser wagers.  Which should not really be a problem on 7 or less teasers.

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#65
Posted: 1/14/2013 12:22:06 PM
-bump-

Wanted to share some input from last years Championship weekend.   Teasers look good again ?  Tease both dogs up ?

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#66
Posted: 1/14/2013 12:35:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MJ2345:



244-82 66.3%


Am I retarded or is this not 66%? Looks much closer to 75% to me.
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#67
Posted: 1/14/2013 12:58:58 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Sanchize5Ever:



Am I retarded or is this not 66%? Looks much closer to 75% to me.

No you are right unless MJ2345 is trying to say that of the 244 plays 82 of them were losses.  Then the number would be right.

As to the OP.  I make more money in the NFL playing teasers than straight up bets.  I think line makers are generally so close to the line that teasers in the NFL in particular provide plenty of value.

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#68
Posted: 1/14/2013 1:12:31 PM

I like to do teasers in the NFL.  College not as much.

6 point teasers in the NFL are a good way to bet if you understand good situations.  I like 6 point teasers as no juice is involved.

Situation #1  Good home teams that are favs of 7 to 8.5 teased down to under a FG.

Situation #2  Good matchup games with lines of 1.5 to 3.  Teasing the small underdog to over a TD.  If the line is 3.5 or higher, I don't consider it. 

These situations come up all the time in the NFL, but I don't tease them all.  I still cap the games and like teasing only teams that I think has a good chance to cover the regular spread. 

Charlie

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#69
Posted: 1/14/2013 1:15:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stoltified:

-bump-

Wanted to share some input from last years Championship weekend.   Teasers look good again ?  Tease both dogs up ?

Tease away!!!  Especially if your local only charging -110!

 

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#70
Posted: 1/14/2013 1:16:35 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Sanchize5Ever:



Am I retarded or is this not 66%? Looks much closer to 75% to me.

Nope but I was a year ago to not catch that! 75% it is

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#71
Posted: 1/14/2013 2:10:01 PM
Teasers are just another item on the menu....
With gambling its all about the odds you get...
Or about the risk you want to take.…
But with teasers it's good if they can put you over or under those numbers that mean so much in football… 3, 7, 9, 10, 14, 17, 21
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veronica27
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#72
Posted: 1/14/2013 7:01:15 PM

oooh my , comin out the gates picking all 4 I would go sf +3.5 and under 56 and pats - 2 or 2.5 and under 59

yesterday to me was more of a fluke/script with the high scoring in all 4 games .. if either of these 4 teams makes it to 27 (with these all or nothing games) that would be impressive .. maybe some weather will play in too .. maybe . is a reach talking about weather helping or hurting so far in advance of these sun games .. but .. is something to be watching the radar about for sure ..

and yes no doubt I like both favs to advance .. was thinking pats would have to go through den and manning is why i didnt think ne would make it this year .. but thanks to ______________ ... manning is at home AGAIN contemplating his future (wondering how in the bleep he lost .. I thought he should retire and let some new blood in there ... was such a bonehead made absolutely no sense shame that they were bounced .. i thought for sure the refs would make sure to make the manning vs brady afc c-ship happen .. almost as amazing it didnt happen as __________ .... list is too long too list .

i see you guys replacing curse words with words like gargabe .. interesting .. and classy .  

that take above was of the 7 pt t variety and would not change .. ty

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#73
Posted: 1/15/2013 7:11:10 AM
I went 1-1 with my teases this past weekend.  I mean really, who in the world of expected the Broncs to lose outright ??  My 2nd tease the points didn't even come into play.  But this weekend I am looking at another 7pt tease on the Pats and Falcons.  In fact I will probable lock in today, because I'm sure the Falcons will go down to +4 across the board.  I want that +11.5 at home !!!!!!!!

BTW, does anyone know how west coast teams do on the east coast during the playoffs ??  

Just seeing if everyone is going to do their homework.  

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#74
Posted: 1/15/2013 7:31:37 AM
If you make a good strategy you'll win easy :D
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#75
Posted: 1/16/2013 5:59:58 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Lippsman] I went 1-1 with my teases this past weekend.  I mean really, who in the world of expected the Broncs to lose outright ??  My 2nd tease the points didn't even come into play.  But this weekend I am looking at another 7pt tease on the Pats and Falcons.  In fact I will probable lock in today, because I'm sure the Falcons will go down to +4 across the board.  I want that +11.5 at home !!!!!!!!

BTW, does anyone know how west coast teams do on the east coast during the playoffs ??  

Just seeing if everyone is going to do their homework.  



 and BOL Pal!
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