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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: Are teasers still a sucker bet?
MJ2345
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#26
Posted: 1/24/2012 9:49:17 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

I love it when people talk about teasers being sucker bets.  Keep up the talk so I can keep making cash under the radar.




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#27
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:12:42 AM
Teasers in general are sucker bets, but there are times when the extra 6 points will give you enough statistical advantage to make it a long term EV bet.

Veronica basically proved out in one post that the 7 point teaser is a sucker bet, thanks for the information Veronica.  Obviously if that extra 7 points is only getting you to a 66% win rate, you are going to get slaughtered over time.

Very intelligent observation from the posters here who commented that playoffs, and especially conference championships, are the best time to tease.  The lines are very sharp this time of year, as proven by the fact that teasing sides went 4-4 this week.

For the poor person who is excited about teasing the total this coming weekend in the Super Bowl.......there is no faster way to lose your money than to include totals in a teaser.  Someone would have to be completely incompetent to make that bet.
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#28
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:20:49 AM
There is some good times to tease but if you stick by a few rules it could be very profitable!!


Veronica do you have the teams that lost those teasers those weeks.I want to see the percentage of bad teams losing these teasers
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#29
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:32:05 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

Teasers in general are sucker bets, but there are times when the extra 6 points will give you enough statistical advantage to make it a long term EV bet.

Veronica basically proved out in one post that the 7 point teaser is a sucker bet, thanks for the information Veronica.  Obviously if that extra 7 points is only getting you to a 66% win rate, you are going to get slaughtered over time.

Very intelligent observation from the posters here who commented that playoffs, and especially conference championships, are the best time to tease.  The lines are very sharp this time of year, as proven by the fact that teasing sides went 4-4 this week.

For the poor person who is excited about teasing the total this coming weekend in the Super Bowl.......there is no faster way to lose your money than to include totals in a teaser.  Someone would have to be completely incompetent to make that bet.

It's all in how you tease.  7 pointers can be gold if you tease them in the correct spots.  But that spot is  very small.  Most of the time a 6.5 will do just fine. And you can't just tease for the hell of it.  You got to do your capping also.

Lines have been sharp for a good while.  That's why the payouts on teasers have changed over the years.

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#30
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:32:49 AM
Also teasing dogs has not been the way to go last few years.
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MJ2345
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#31
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:43:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Also teasing dogs has not been the way to go last few years.


Lipps Do you also stick to the rule dont tease bad teams.I think this ups the % big time because shitty teams are more apt to get blown out?
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#32
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:48:30 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJ2345:



Lipps Do you also stick to the rule dont tease bad teams.I think this ups the % big time because shitty teams are more apt to get blown out?

100%.  As opposed to most, I cap the game first and tease second.  You gotta like the teams chances before you tease.

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#33
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:13:27 AM

It's all about the key number's  3,4,7.  Get spreads better then these numbers.

 I had alot of success teasing favorites down to anything that is less then -3, especially when they are playing at home

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#34
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:20:21 AM
good info in this thread..will use these next year..thanks everyone 
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veronica27
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#35
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:45:33 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJ2345:

There is some good times to tease but if you stick by a few rules it could be very profitable!!


Veronica do you have the teams that lost those teasers those weeks.I want to see the percentage of bad teams losing these teasers

will list them in order of what time they came on .. 1pm/4pm/primetime .. btw , Veronica is my wife  you can call me the whatever you want but .. lol i had a name on here called EJLuv or something but I started using this name ... low profile holme boy , but you done tripped that up .. haha you had to call me Veronica didnt you .

teams no good on 7 pt T

week 1 >> falcons browns chiefs rams phins bucs steelers colts shawks giants   22 - 10

week 2 >> chiefs ravens bears jags s-hawks   24 - 5 push on vikes phins and chargers

week 3 >> pats eagles jets rams chargers steelers  26 - 6

week 4 >> browns eagles vikes broncos raiders jets  26 - 6

week 5 >> eagles cards giants titans jags texans bucs 19 - 7

week 6 >> panthers lions steelers texans saints vikes 20 - 6

week 7 >> skins lions titans chargers raiders cards rams colts ravens 17 - 9

week 8 >> colts saints skins ravens broncos pats shawks cboys 18 - 8

week 9 >> bills colts chiefs browns raiders titans  pats eagles ...  push on browns closing line of 11 , lost by 18  im not going to list the iffy ones meaning pushes .. is neither here nor here as far as it meaning anything now .. IT DOES SHOW ONE THING THAT IT IS BEST TO TRY AND GET THE BEST LINE .. THERE R A BUNCH OF THEM LIKE THAT , with best line you sneak a win in teasing it .. etc is too much typing to show all of them and talk about in any detail     16 - 8

week 10 >> chargers bills colts chiefs eagles bucs panthers lions ravens jets vikes  21 - 11

week 11 >> jets bills vikes rams cards giants chiefs  21 - 7

week 12 >> 27 - 5  shawks eagles chargers steelers -11.5 rise killed em to -4.5 won by 4 at kc .... giants got blown out at saints on mnf

week 13 >> 13 to list , lol eagles skins bills bears browns raiders bengals falcons bucs cboys rams pats    19 - 13

week 14 >> phins chiefs bucs bills raiders  27 - 5

week 15 >> jags bucs giants bears titans pack vikes texans broncos jets ravens steelers   20 - 12

week 16 >> texans broncos jets rams bucs chargers cboys falcons pats were good with a closing line of 9.5 but no good 10 n up .. is too much to go into about the line movement and everyone has different lines .. i just list couple for the heck of it .. 24 - 8

week 17 >> skins lions bills panthers raiders bucs cboys  25 - 7

getting the best line , as we all know too well >> is key all the way around for sure

 

 

 

 

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#36
Posted: 1/24/2012 11:49:46 AM

jags was one in week 13 i left out ..

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#37
Posted: 1/24/2012 2:00:34 PM
Lippsman, are you paying -130 for your 7 point teasers?  If so, can you explain to me mathematically when a 7 point teaser can be profitable?

I believe you are mistaken.
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#38
Posted: 1/24/2012 2:02:09 PM
Also, Lippsman, I understand that if you are a very experienced handicapper with proven models, you may identify a time when the 7 points is worth it at -130.  My comments are more directed at the recreational sportsbettor who is basically flipping a coin.
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Lippsman
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#39
Posted: 1/24/2012 5:18:18 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:

Lippsman, are you paying -130 for your 7 point teasers?  If so, can you explain to me mathematically when a 7 point teaser can be profitable?

I believe you are mistaken.

I pay Ev for 6, -110 for 6.5 -120 for -7.  And yes I show a profit playiing -7's.  But again there is a very small window in which I play a -7.  Mostly 6.5's and 6.  But have been know to do a 10pter once or twice a year.

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#40
Posted: 1/24/2012 5:30:06 PM

I LOVE TEASERS And this weekend was great for them.

ALL TEAMS WON[4]

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#41
Posted: 1/24/2012 6:05:29 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by veronica27:

will list them in order of what time they came on .. 1pm/4pm/primetime .. btw , Veronica is my wife  you can call me the whatever you want but .. lol i had a name on here called EJLuv or something but I started using this name ... low profile holme boy , but you done tripped that up .. haha you had to call me Veronica didnt you .

teams no good on 7 pt T

week 1 >> falcons browns chiefs rams phins bucs steelers colts shawks giants   22 - 10

week 2 >> chiefs ravens bears jags s-hawks   24 - 5 push on vikes phins and chargers

week 3 >> pats eagles jets rams chargers steelers  26 - 6

week 4 >> browns eagles vikes broncos raiders jets  26 - 6

week 5 >> eagles cards giants titans jags texans bucs 19 - 7

week 6 >> panthers lions steelers texans saints vikes 20 - 6

week 7 >> skins lions titans chargers raiders cards rams colts ravens 17 - 9

week 8 >> colts saints skins ravens broncos pats shawks cboys 18 - 8

week 9 >> bills colts chiefs browns raiders titans  pats eagles ...  push on browns closing line of 11 , lost by 18  im not going to list the iffy ones meaning pushes .. is neither here nor here as far as it meaning anything now .. IT DOES SHOW ONE THING THAT IT IS BEST TO TRY AND GET THE BEST LINE .. THERE R A BUNCH OF THEM LIKE THAT , with best line you sneak a win in teasing it .. etc is too much typing to show all of them and talk about in any detail     16 - 8

week 10 >> chargers bills colts chiefs eagles bucs panthers lions ravens jets vikes  21 - 11

week 11 >> jets bills vikes rams cards giants chiefs  21 - 7

week 12 >> 27 - 5  shawks eagles chargers steelers -11.5 rise killed em to -4.5 won by 4 at kc .... giants got blown out at saints on mnf

week 13 >> 13 to list , lol eagles skins bills bears browns raiders bengals falcons bucs cboys rams pats    19 - 13

week 14 >> phins chiefs bucs bills raiders  27 - 5

week 15 >> jags bucs giants bears titans pack vikes texans broncos jets ravens steelers   20 - 12

week 16 >> texans broncos jets rams bucs chargers cboys falcons pats were good with a closing line of 9.5 but no good 10 n up .. is too much to go into about the line movement and everyone has different lines .. i just list couple for the heck of it .. 24 - 8

week 17 >> skins lions bills panthers raiders bucs cboys  25 - 7

getting the best line , as we all know too well >> is key all the way around for sure

 

 

 

 



Thx Veronica LOL

Just went over it quick but just like LIPPS and i were saying if you only used the top 12 teams in teasers which weeds out the bad teams and of course there will be other factors like injuries and along with capping the games.

The % changes and mind this is just without capping and injuries the top 12 teams were 153-39 at 74.6% and only 2 weeks did it go worse than 9-3 with 2 weeks 12-0 and 3 weeks 11-1
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#42
Posted: 1/24/2012 6:36:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by veronica27:

will list them in order of what time they came on .. 1pm/4pm/primetime .. btw , Veronica is my wife  you can call me the whatever you want but .. lol i had a name on here called EJLuv or something but I started using this name ... low profile holme boy , but you done tripped that up .. haha you had to call me Veronica didnt you .

teams no good on 7 pt T

week 1 >> falcons browns chiefs rams phins bucs steelers colts shawks giants   22 - 10

week 2 >> chiefs ravens bears jags s-hawks   24 - 5 push on vikes phins and chargers

week 3 >> pats eagles jets rams chargers steelers  26 - 6

week 4 >> browns eagles vikes broncos raiders jets  26 - 6

week 5 >> eagles cards giants titans jags texans bucs 19 - 7

week 6 >> panthers lions steelers texans saints vikes 20 - 6

week 7 >> skins lions titans chargers raiders cards rams colts ravens 17 - 9

week 8 >> colts saints skins ravens broncos pats shawks cboys 18 - 8

week 9 >> bills colts chiefs browns raiders titans  pats eagles ...  push on browns closing line of 11 , lost by 18  im not going to list the iffy ones meaning pushes .. is neither here nor here as far as it meaning anything now .. IT DOES SHOW ONE THING THAT IT IS BEST TO TRY AND GET THE BEST LINE .. THERE R A BUNCH OF THEM LIKE THAT , with best line you sneak a win in teasing it .. etc is too much typing to show all of them and talk about in any detail     16 - 8

week 10 >> chargers bills colts chiefs eagles bucs panthers lions ravens jets vikes  21 - 11

week 11 >> jets bills vikes rams cards giants chiefs  21 - 7

week 12 >> 27 - 5  shawks eagles chargers steelers -11.5 rise killed em to -4.5 won by 4 at kc .... giants got blown out at saints on mnf

week 13 >> 13 to list , lol eagles skins bills bears browns raiders bengals falcons bucs cboys rams pats    19 - 13

week 14 >> phins chiefs bucs bills raiders  27 - 5

week 15 >> jags bucs giants bears titans pack vikes texans broncos jets ravens steelers   20 - 12

week 16 >> texans broncos jets rams bucs chargers cboys falcons pats were good with a closing line of 9.5 but no good 10 n up .. is too much to go into about the line movement and everyone has different lines .. i just list couple for the heck of it .. 24 - 8

week 17 >> skins lions bills panthers raiders bucs cboys  25 - 7

getting the best line , as we all know too well >> is key all the way around for sure

 

 

 

 

 

 

LOOKING AT YOUR LIST THE

GIANT  5

RAVENS  5

PATS  3

49ERS  0

THATS HOW MANY TIMES THOSE 4 TEAMS WERE ON THERE  SHOWS YOU WHAT 2 TEAMS SHOULD BE PLAYING IN THE SUPER BOWL

PATS  VS  49ERS

 

 

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#43
Posted: 1/24/2012 6:42:40 PM
Now again this theoretical just straight boxing the top 12 teams every week withouit injuries,capping,situations  So if you boxed the top 12 teams for 17 weeks you woiuld have only lost 2 weeks because in order to have a losing week you need more than 3 loses.Now if you used LIPPS $100 a unit at -120 for a 7pt teaser boxing the 12 teams each week you would be up a whopping $23,880 if i did this right!!If you used the Bears until Haney as the 12th team until Haney got hurt which they were one of the best teams and i would have used them
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#44
Posted: 1/24/2012 7:04:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJ2345:



244-82 66.3%

66% Does not seem nearly enough to justify it. 

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#45
Posted: 1/24/2012 7:07:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mrquija27:

66% Does not seem nearly enough to justify it. 



Right that was doing all the teams if you just took the top 12 its around 74-75% and you would!Like we have been saying you have to weed out hte bad teams
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#46
Posted: 1/24/2012 10:12:08 PM

We did one in Reno at Cal Neva. We did a 4 team Super Teaser with the Pats + UNDER 49ers + OVER. It hit. We do them as side bets with our single bet action. We call them Sh*ts and giggles plays.

Here is my system. Pick the projected SU winner for the ATS and the projected total for the teaser package. My projected winner is the Giants and the projected total is 55 points. The teaser package on a 7 point teaser is Giants +10 UNDER 62.50( $100/$76.92)

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#47
Posted: 1/25/2012 3:12:50 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by MJ2345:




Just went over it quick but just like LIPPS and i were saying if you only used the top 12 teams in teasers which weeds out the bad teams and of course there will be other factors like injuries and along with capping the games.

The % changes and mind this is just without capping and injuries the top 12 teams were 153-39 at 74.6% and only 2 weeks did it go worse than 9-3 with 2 weeks 12-0 and 3 weeks 11-1

very nice man , good work ! 

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#48
Posted: 1/25/2012 3:15:33 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by harvick_29]

 

 

LOOKING AT YOUR LIST THE

GIANT  5

RAVENS  5

PATS  3

49ERS  0

THATS HOW MANY TIMES THOSE 4 TEAMS WERE ON THERE  SHOWS YOU WHAT 2 TEAMS SHOULD BE PLAYING IN THE SUPER BOWL

PATS  VS  49ERS

 

 sweeet ! via kyle

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#49
Posted: 1/26/2012 7:24:34 AM

dude , my record for teams i like as high % plays on 7 pt T's went 73 - 16 week 4 - 17 .. i went perfect only 4 times .. started in week 4 with the high % to tease teams writting it down .. it went like this rec wise .. 

  high % to tease record week by week

week 4 > 7 - 0

week 5 > 4 - 1

week 6 > 6 - 0

week 7 > 5 - 2

week 8 > 5 - 0

week 9 > 5 - 2

week 10 > 6 - 2

week 11 > 4 - 1

week 12 > 6 - 1

week 13 > 5 - 3

week 14 > 4 - 0

week 15 > 5 - 2

week 16 > 6 - 1

week 17 > 5 - 0

is interseting to say the least .. depends on how many teasers you put in huh .. and how many teams on each .

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#50
Posted: 1/26/2012 7:33:42 AM

the teams to kill em

  is interesting but i dont even want to list em .. is too painful . haha   i will list a couple >> week 5 was texans , raiders got em in hous , week 11 was jets , lost on thurs night at den , lol  week 12 sd lost at home to den , i wont even type >> BEAT BY TEBOWMANIA ! yep . i wonder how much people lost because of that mini media madness maniac , yet special bs .

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