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[NFL Betting] Topic: Saints (Square) @ 49ers (Sharp) .... Which R U? Explain..... |
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jwub91781 |
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#26 Posted: 1/13/2012 3:10:50 AM |
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bets2win |
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#27 Posted: 1/13/2012 3:10:58 AM |
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jwub91781 |
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#28 Posted: 1/13/2012 3:11:10 AM |
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jwub91781 |
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#29 Posted: 1/13/2012 3:12:51 AM |
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msandberg |
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#30 Posted: 1/13/2012 7:25:58 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by FrontRowCenter: The smart play is San Fran or pass on the play. I refuse to be on a play with the masses. It is not a formula for success!!
Not saying you should always bet with the masses, but that is a short-sighted comment. New Orleans and the Det/NO over were ridiculously square plays, and there was even a Covers article on how Vegas had a strong rooting interest in seeing a low scoring Detroit cover, but in the end both square plays won.
Based on what I've seen, I think the way you beat NO is to outscore them, not slow them down. Green Bay will outscore them next week. I don't see Alex Smith keeping up, especially if the Saints jump out to a lead early. |
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bets2win |
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#31 Posted: 1/13/2012 4:35:05 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by msandberg:
Not saying you should always bet with the masses, but that is a short-sighted comment. New Orleans and the Det/NO over were ridiculously square plays, and there was even a Covers article on how Vegas had a strong rooting interest in seeing a low scoring Detroit cover, but in the end both square plays won.
Based on what I've seen, I think the way you beat NO is to outscore them, not slow them down. Green Bay will outscore them next week. I don't see Alex Smith keeping up, especially if the Saints jump out to a lead early.
while i agee that the DET/NO Over was a Square play, by no means was NO -10.5 a blatant square play (im not suggesting there wasnt more money on NO, it just wasnt a 70%+ Public Play).... Detroit has proven to be a public favorite n they just scored a shitload of points the week before against GB, i do not think NO was as Public a Play as they will be thiswk... SF was already a team that a lot of the Public Faded Heavily bc of them sucking lastyr and their 1970s style of run the ball and play ferocious defense and NO is a HUGE Public Play.... id imagine 75% of the public is ALL OVER N'awlens thiswk.... my play is still undecided and im genuinely TORN.... as of right now, im leaning Saints.... but not by much |
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worthashot |
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#32 Posted: 1/13/2012 5:34:14 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by tony2toes:
Saints have won 9 in a row and are averaging 30+ points along with covering during this period. You can compare to games of the past, different teams and trends, up to you. My money is going on the better QB, more experienced playoff team, better coach and more than capable defense. I cannot and will not put my hard earned money on Alex Smith especially considering they were 6-10 last year.
Alex Smith has a better QB rating and better TD/Int ratio in Candlestick than does Brees on real grass.
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baronman |
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#33 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:03:20 PM |
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baronman |
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#34 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:04:06 PM |
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Macwestie1 |
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#35 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:10:28 PM 
49ers
I don't have an explanation it's a Gut feeling mah man |
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CalBear |
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#36 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:34:59 PM
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onebrokebloke |
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#37 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:52:31 PM  |
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Daran.T |
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#38 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:54:06 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by shrimp1958:
Aldon Smith will need 2 get in Bree's face to tilt the game their way,and Gore will need 125 yds on the ground or they buried...still will be on SF....+3.5...
I'm confused. You're going with a Snake Eyes hunch here. Why not pick the more probable outcome? |
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FrankT55 |
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#39 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:54:54 PM |
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texancapper |
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#40 Posted: 1/13/2012 8:57:02 PM |
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nc1capper |
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#41 Posted: 1/13/2012 9:35:06 PM |
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Bodogjoe |
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#42 Posted: 1/13/2012 9:41:30 PM |
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Crashdavis565 |
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#43 Posted: 1/13/2012 10:00:43 PM
That is all I need to know
GLA
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GSW0716 |
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#44 Posted: 1/13/2012 10:00:47 PM |
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Crashdavis565 |
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#45 Posted: 1/13/2012 10:03:34 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by FrankT55:
Saints lock, 49ers over rated, week behind division, saints wont lose to this team on the road, they know they lost to seattle and bears, will be ready, have good team and coaching leadership,,jim hardballs lemon.
Oh man do I love this post!
Just what the Saints were saying last year minus 10 vs the Seahawks!
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Splooge |
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#46 Posted: 1/13/2012 10:23:35 PM Playing all the dogs this week Bets and can't pass up this home pup on a field surface that favors defense. I for one do not see Saints putting up 30+ here mainly because SanFrans front 7 is as good as it gets and will limit both Graham and Sproles. Just look at Brees on the road this year and it's obvious they are a completely different team away...now they take to the road and face a very well coached and rested 9ers team w/ one of the best D's in NFL on a slow track outdoors that can slow the game down and limit Saints possessions forcing them to navigate long fields simply because they are the best kicking team in the league and play great defense. Brees is a very good QB that is going to look average and have most scratching their heads Saturday, Alex Smith is a very average QB at best that they ask not to manage the game making few mistakes and just allow their D and specials to win games for them. Field position dominated by 9ers is the difference where they can win this scoring less than 30. GL! |
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WhatThePho |
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#47 Posted: 1/14/2012 3:25:34 AM 49ers Defense have picked off 17 INT and oppoents QB rating of under 59 rating,,!
Homedogs is the play here..!
Then again, I took LSU..!
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ellogovna227 |
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#48 Posted: 1/14/2012 3:45:08 AM
Those of you who are already spotting Brees 4 TDs are delusional |
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Aalon |
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#49 Posted: 1/14/2012 3:50:20 AM You can start by realizing the Saints don't run a spread offense. They may come out in 4 or 5 wide every now and then, but they mostly make good use of their tight ends and RBs. This is why their running game is ranked 6th with 160+ yards in 4 straight games. They use just as many power (FB/2TE) sets as they use 4/5 wides. That offense is physical and can match the size and speed of the SF defense easily. Start with that.
For me, it comes down to SF only having a chance if they force 2+ turnovers and the Saints add on about 5+ penalties to their own drives or aid SF drives. History says yes, SF will because the Saints have been prone to these things on the road.
However, I say no. I see a focused team that's been there, done that. I see SF as the one with the penalties and TOs.
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Aalon |
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#50 Posted: 1/14/2012 3:52:08 AM QUOTE Originally Posted by ellogovna227:
Most Saints scored on grass this year was 30 @ Carolina..now going against best D in the league?
Those of you who are already spotting Brees 4 TDs are delusional
Wrong. Scored 34 @Green Bay and knocking on the door as time expired. Also had 503 yards of offense @Jacksonville (6th ranked defense, 49ers ranked 4th). |
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