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Author: [NFL Betting] Topic: NFL Playoffs
WilliamMunny
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#26
Posted: 1/5/2012 4:59:02 PM
Pitt O is a disaster so taking the points is the wise move. Pitt O has avg 13 pts per last 4. If Ben plays the whole game its an easy cover. I honestly think a healthy Batch is a better option for Pitt. i think the under is an even better play. Like Hou also GL
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#27
Posted: 1/5/2012 5:00:49 PM

Pitt 2-6 ATS on the road this yr

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#28
Posted: 1/5/2012 10:27:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Houston -3

 The schedule did get tougher down the stretch but this team seemed to hit a bit of a wall as they covered just one spread in their final eight games. 


Not to mention Cincinnati is 0-7 su and 1-6 ats vs. playoff teams. The combined record of teams they beat is 40-80.

Ive been going back and fourth on this game but lean hou. I can't get those 3 stats out of my head. Already got denver @ 9. 
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#29
Posted: 1/5/2012 10:31:23 PM
GL this week andy
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#30
Posted: 1/5/2012 10:56:22 PM
Great point about the Texans Toughness. I like them to win this game but big time fade the following week in Baltimore. I canceled my Steelers ATS play. Big Ben had a set back and apparently he could barely plant his foot to throw.
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#31
Posted: 1/5/2012 11:38:40 PM
Like both houston and denver. GL bud.
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glyde69
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#32
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:04:10 AM

What up, Andy? 

You make a compelling argument for Denver, and almost made me think twice about my wager, but ultimately I don't like Denver, I don't want them advancing and stinking up anymore NFL playoff games than they already are, and while I'm afraid of Pitt's D wearing down late IF the game happens to turn into a grind(it is possible but only if Pitt does it to themselves), I don't think Denver can win this game.  I think it is more of a game where Pitt will score a couple quick touchdowns and comfortably hold them off.  Something like a 20-6/20-9 kind of game.  Because of the Pitt injuries(Pouncey most important) which worry me, I went with a Pitt and Pitt(college) teaser.  Steelers -2 and Panthers +3.5

I had a few Texan props(division already cashed) and a few weeks ago, I was very confident with Houston rolling and a bye and HF advantage in their corner, but the QB concerns obviously kill that wager, and not getting a bye was the nail in the coffin.  I was just gonna take Cincy +3 as a hedge to break even on a Houston to win the AFC prop, but I changed my mind last second.  I went with Houston -3(-120), and look at it like if they wind up losing to Cincy, it will be like a 2 unit loss(one on the game, one on the prop).  No biggie.  If they win, THEN I will start to try to figure out some hedging possibilites even though it will be tough with them being fairly big dogs the rest of the way. 

The Saint game I've been going back and forth on.  My initial instinct was 11-13 points is WAY too high(I set it at 7 and being 4-6 points off depending on which book I look at was the most I have been off on any game all year setting my own lines), and Detroit would normally be a no brainer "value play" for me, but something is keeping me away.  Someone I REALLY respect is making a play on NO -7 1st half, and he made great points, so I'm going the same way.  The way I see it, the Saints remember last year's disaster in Seattle and will want to come out early and jump out strongly to a lead.  They will ride the energy in the dome, and a young Detroit team might have some early game jitters.  I'm banking on them having an early lead and that 1st half wager will take away the possibility of late game back doors.

The Giant game I WANT the Giants to win.  My family and friends are all Giant fans and I love being a part of the "crew" rooting on a fun team with my peeps, but I think Atlanta is gonna take this.  The Giants defense and pass rush was non existant for most of the season, and I'm not sure why harassing box Dallas suddenly makes them a given to do the same to Atlanta who is a smart disciplined Atlanta squad.  I think they will run, take the Giant pass rush out of the equasion, and Ryan will check down to Gonzo which the Giants will not be able to counter with their young linebackers.  Roddy, Douglas, and Jones are a nightmare for the Giants secondary, and a bend but don't break mentality on defense should be enough to keep the Giants in check.  Gilbride will call a bad game as usual, the boo birds will be out by the 2nd quarter, and Atlanta is gonna grind this game out.  IMO..  Atlanta +3 is my bet.  

 

 

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#33
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:13:53 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

What up, Andy? 

You make a compelling argument for Denver, and almost made me think twice about my wager, but ultimately I don't like Denver, I don't want them advancing and stinking up anymore NFL playoff games than they already are, and while I'm afraid of Pitt's D wearing down late IF the game happens to turn into a grind(it is possible but only if Pitt does it to themselves), I don't think Denver can win this game.  I think it is more of a game where Pitt will score a couple quick touchdowns and comfortably hold them off.  Something like a 20-6/20-9 kind of game.  Because of the Pitt injuries(Pouncey most important) which worry me, I went with a Pitt and Pitt(college) teaser.  Steelers -2 and Panthers +3.5

I had a few Texan props(division already cashed) and a few weeks ago, I was very confident with Houston rolling and a bye and HF advantage in their corner, but the QB concerns obviously kill that wager, and not getting a bye was the nail in the coffin.  I was just gonna take Cincy +3 as a hedge to break even on a Houston to win the AFC prop, but I changed my mind last second.  I went with Houston -3(-120), and look at it like if they wind up losing to Cincy, it will be like a 2 unit loss(one on the game, one on the prop).  No biggie.  If they win, THEN I will start to try to figure out some hedging possibilites even though it will be tough with them being fairly big dogs the rest of the way. 

The Saint game I've been going back and forth on.  My initial instinct was 11-13 points is WAY too high(I set it at 7 and being 4-6 points off depending on which book I look at was the most I have been off on any game all year setting my own lines), and Detroit would normally be a no brainer "value play" for me, but something is keeping me away.  Someone I REALLY respect is making a play on NO -7 1st half, and he made great points, so I'm going the same way.  The way I see it, the Saints remember last year's disaster in Seattle and will want to come out early and jump out strongly to a lead.  They will ride the energy in the dome, and a young Detroit team might have some early game jitters.  I'm banking on them having an early lead and that 1st half wager will take away the possibility of late game back doors.

The Giant game I WANT the Giants to win.  My family and friends are all Giant fans and I love being a part of the "crew" rooting on a fun team with my peeps, but I think Atlanta is gonna take this.  The Giants defense and pass rush was non existant for most of the season, and I'm not sure why harassing box Dallas suddenly makes them a given to do the same to Atlanta who is a smart disciplined Atlanta squad.  I think they will run, take the Giant pass rush out of the equasion, and Ryan will check down to Gonzo which the Giants will not be able to counter with their young linebackers.  Roddy, Douglas, and Jones are a nightmare for the Giants secondary, and a bend but don't break mentality on defense should be enough to keep the Giants in check.  Gilbride will call a bad game as usual, the boo birds will be out by the 2nd quarter, and Atlanta is gonna grind this game out.  IMO..  Atlanta +3 is my bet.  

 

 



Good to see you on the Falcons Glyde...every thread I open I see the Giants are gonna roll..Falcons can't win on the road...Giants pass rush will eat them alive etc etc.

I think the Falcons will be hungry for a playoff win after the last 2 years. I also think the Giants are a fraud. They have a horrible OLine, and a weak linebacking crew and secondary. If the Falcons can hold off that pass rush (which I think they will) Ryan will be able to exploit that horrible defense with White and his new emerging weapon Julio Jones. I also love the fact Grimes is back as he is Atlanta's best cover corner. Hopefully they man him up on Cruz all game.
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#34
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:30:40 AM

Also hit Alabama PK for the national championship game.  LSU is a worthy foe and has QB and special team advantages, but Saban over Miles is a big advantage with a month to prepare and I think Bama really grinds this team down.

Had a sick bowl run and played every game for a 1/4 or 1/2 unit and killed it.  Trying to look objectively, I truly feel I was on the right side of every single game this year except for UNC and Virginia.  The few games out of 30 that I did lose were all last second losses, backdoors, or late collapses(notre dame comes to mind; lost by the hook), so I think I have a good feel for college right now.  Loving Bama here in a rout.

garbage, I'm looking at my college history and losses.....

- Miss State(late FG for backdoor; lost by hook).
- Wisky(arguable, but thought they were two key plays from a cover as awesome as Oregon was).
- Toledo(winning most of game; gave up last second TD and AF went for two killing my chance of winning in OT)
- Northwestern(would have been lucky as they made a late comeback, but was one 1st down from A&M kneeling instead of a backdoor FG in last minute)
- Tulsa(gave up TD in last second for loss).
- Notre Dame(up 14-0 late and gave up 18 late points to lose by hook).
- Iowa(catching a boatload of points; was right there late and gave up 10 late points for a Sooner cover).
- Cal(fell asleep up 10-7; woke up lost 21-10 in a game they played great imo, but lost turnover battle 5-0 and still were in it).
- UNC and Virginia were bad losses and can't argue on those.

Hit every other game though, and not trying to be a braggart, but just feel like I have a great gauge on the bowl games this year and think Bama ROUTS. 

GL this weekend Andy.  Hope we can middle my Pitt teaser and your Denver +9.  With you all the way with Houston. 

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#35
Posted: 1/7/2012 1:34:40 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:



Good to see you on the Falcons Glyde...every thread I open I see the Giants are gonna roll..Falcons can't win on the road...Giants pass rush will eat them alive etc etc.

I think the Falcons will be hungry for a playoff win after the last 2 years. I also think the Giants are a fraud. They have a horrible OLine, and a weak linebacking crew and secondary. If the Falcons can hold off that pass rush (which I think they will) Ryan will be able to exploit that horrible defense with White and his new emerging weapon Julio Jones. I also love the fact Grimes is back as he is Atlanta's best cover corner. Hopefully they man him up on Cruz all game.

Agree 100% NEPats.  GL this weekend, my friend.  Also, who is the girl in your avatar?  I'm usually a sucker for blondes, but goddamn that girl is stunning!

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#36
Posted: 1/7/2012 2:19:01 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

What up, Andy? 




How's it going brother?

Yeah Denver certainly is an ugly looking play and they could get blanked but when I look at the Pittsburgh team I'm just not impressed. I think they are way down. I do agree with you if Denver wins though they will probably get spanked next week and what's worse is Tebow mania will be off the charts.

I'm getting a tad bit uneasy about this Houston bet. I still think they get it done and the Bengals aren't that good but the possibility of Yates taking a hit on that shoulder and Jake Delhomme coming in is one of the scariest things I have ever visualized.

I agree with you about the Lions/Saints. Thought I would initially take the points but I just can't do it. If the Lions were a veteran team I'd take them at less than this spread but in their first playoff game it's a pass especially because they take so many penalties and the possibility they unravel is probably the same as making another big comeback. I can't bet the Saints though there's a couple of strong systems that say they slog their way through this one, but then again these guys are damn good in this stadium.

I agreed with your stance on Atlanta when this game was first set but the more I looked at it the more I liked the Giants. The fact that they are healthy is a big plus for me. They have had a ton of injuries this year. Tuck, JPP, Osi and Micheal Boley are their most important players and they have only finished 3 games together all season. Giants went 3-0 in those games and 2-1 ATS. They had 13 sacks and gave up 17, 20, and 14. Including holding the Pats to 3 points in Foxboro through 3 quarters and holding down a good Dallas offense last week. A great pass rush can coverup for a bad secondary, that's what the Giants did a few years ago. Jacobs and Bradshaw playing in the same game is also a plus. In the 10 games those two played this year the Giants went 7-3 SU & ATS. The Giants also scored at least 28 points in 7 of those 10 games. They are kind of like the Packers with the run game last year, they don't really need to be efficient they just need to stick with it to keep the defense honest and put the ball in the hands of their QB and playmaking receivers.

The thought of an underrated team coming in and knowing off a team that looks to many to be clicking is usually something that I look at but I don't know, I just don't see it with Atlanta. I'm not sure they are underrated either as they had a losing ATS record this year, if anything they are overrated. They have what I'd call one quality win all season and that was at Detroit. Since their bye they have played 4 teams with winning records and went 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.  The Falcons strength of victory was 5th worst in the whole league, the only teams ranked lower were the Panthers, Jags, Bengals, and Browns. The Giants had the 3rd best SOV out of any team with more than two wins.

Matt Ryan has to hit those short passes. But can he? Again, I'm just not sure I see it with this guy. He's very, very average on the road. Falcons gameplan will be to run Turner and hit short 3rd and longs. I kind of think the Giants plan will be the same. Atlanta stinks on 3rd down defense they are 4th worse in the league ahead of only Minnesota, San Diego and Indianapolis. With Bradshaw and Jacobs healthy I think they can set up some 3rd and shorts. The Falcons can't rush the passer ranking 24th in sack percentage and Manning is pretty good at avoiding sacks and getting the ball out as NY ranks 6th best in opp sack %. I'm not sold on the Falcons secondary either. For all the talk they rank basically in the same in every category as they did last year when they were chewed up by a good passing game. They actually rank slightly worse in YPA and opp QB rating. Not sure what to make of Grimes. He has knee surgery a few weeks ago and missed the first two days of practice this week. Is he going to be healthy enough to keep up with the one of the best receivers in the game?

The Giants are perfectly capable of laying an egg though as they have done numerous times. Their inconsistency on the field and from the coaches is a huge concern but if both teams show up I think the Giants are better. I do think the spot favors Atlanta but there is no substance to go with it at least in my eyes though I have been wrong many, many times this year. Still a day to look at it more and figure out if the Giants are going to garbage the bed but right now I lean NY.
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#37
Posted: 1/7/2012 2:26:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by glyde69:

Also hit Alabama PK for the national championship game.  LSU is a worthy foe and has QB and special team advantages, but Saban over Miles is a big advantage with a month to prepare and I think Bama really grinds this team down.

Had a sick bowl run and played every game for a 1/4 or 1/2 unit and killed it.  Trying to look objectively, I truly feel I was on the right side of every single game this year except for UNC and Virginia.  The few games out of 30 that I did lose were all last second losses, backdoors, or late collapses(notre dame comes to mind; lost by the hook), so I think I have a good feel for college right now.  Loving Bama here in a rout.

garbage, I'm looking at my college history and losses.....

- Miss State(late FG for backdoor; lost by hook).
- Wisky(arguable, but thought they were two key plays from a cover as awesome as Oregon was).
- Toledo(winning most of game; gave up last second TD and AF went for two killing my chance of winning in OT)
- Northwestern(would have been lucky as they made a late comeback, but was one 1st down from A&M kneeling instead of a backdoor FG in last minute)
- Tulsa(gave up TD in last second for loss).
- Notre Dame(up 14-0 late and gave up 18 late points to lose by hook).
- Iowa(catching a boatload of points; was right there late and gave up 10 late points for a Sooner cover).
- Cal(fell asleep up 10-7; woke up lost 21-10 in a game they played great imo, but lost turnover battle 5-0 and still were in it).
- UNC and Virginia were bad losses and can't argue on those.

Hit every other game though, and not trying to be a braggart, but just feel like I have a great gauge on the bowl games this year and think Bama ROUTS. 

GL this weekend Andy.  Hope we can middle my Pitt teaser and your Denver +9.  With you all the way with Houston. 



I'm with you 100% here. I think Bama is better in every facet but special teams. If they have a decent kicker or don't get a pass picked off on an incredible play at the goaline they win the earlier game. Love the coaching angle as well, there was a lot of talk about how Miles outcoached Saban in the first game but if Bama makes that play on the WR pass it's a completely different story. Bama struggled a little bit with the option with Jefferson in the first game but Saban will have that figured out with a month to prepare. I think he's far better than Miles. I also think Bama is more talented, they will be exceptionally prepared and should finish the job this time.

Love it.
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#38
Posted: 1/7/2012 2:50:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Houston -3

It's been a nice year for the Bengals but I think this team overachieved. They did finish with a winning record but they were just +3 in yards per game and were actually even in net yards per play. The schedule did get tougher down the stretch but this team seemed to hit a bit of a wall as they covered just one spread in their final eight games. Their run defense has also been leaking oil. They lost defenisve tackle Pat Sims for the final five games of the year and since then they have given up 131 rushing yards per game at 4.85 per clip. Andy Dalton has had a very impressive rookie season but he's faced 6 top level defenses this year (PIT twice, BAL twice, HOU, and SF) and in those games he's completed 51.7% of his passes for 6.17 YPA with 5 TD, 7 INT and a 64.8 QB rating.

The Texans obviously finished horribly although losing Wade Phillips for a couple of games coupled with clinching the division and maybe losing a little spark certainly played a part. I have no argument for the Texans schedule as they really didn't play too many tough teams. It could be said though that this Bengals team in their current state in a road playoff game isn't really a dominate team either. Yates is a concern although this isn't a game where he'll be asked to throw a lot as it is unlikely the Bengals jump out to a big lead, they just aren't that type of team. The Texans run game is dominate and they have a great defense going against a rookie QB who has struggled against these types of defenses. On paper I think it is a very nice matchup for the Texans and that seemed to play itself out when these teams played a few weeks ago. Houston did need to come from behind to win that game but they were +9 in 1st downs, +137 in yards, +3.30 minutes TOP, and still won despite being -2 in turnovers.

I also like the spot for Houston. This team has waited forever for a home playoff game and I expect this crowd to be absolutely nuts and the Texans to be exceptionally fired up. This could cause problems for a young Bengals offense especially because the Texans pass rush which is very good may feed off the crowd.




I think the best play is the under.  Can see this game going either direction
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#39
Posted: 1/8/2012 12:36:32 AM
Taking a pass on this Giants game. Like I said I initially leaned Falcons and I trust my gut. Won't be on Atlanta though as I don't trust them. I don't trust the Giants either to show up they've garbage badly in these 1:00 home games this year. This could be a good game to hit at the half though. I think we'll have a pretty good idea at that point as to who has shown up and wants the game more. Whoever wins between the Falcons O-line and Giants D-line will win this game.

Hit New Orleans -3 -115 at the open. Hats off to San Fran for a nice season but they aren't going to beat the Saints.

Go Broncos.
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#40
Posted: 1/8/2012 12:40:31 AM
I don't know if it matters to you or not but Saints will be massive public vs SF.
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#41
Posted: 1/8/2012 12:51:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FrankT55:

I don't know if it matters to you or not but Saints will be massive public vs SF.

So what?
Does the public pass rush, Brees?!

That myth about public plays only comes to mind because you only remember the losers.

Green Bay was pounded in that playoff game last year in Chicago. Line moved two PTS off the key number 3 to 5 PTS. Doesn't mean anything.
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#42
Posted: 1/8/2012 12:52:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FrankT55:

I don't know if it matters to you or not but Saints will be massive public vs SF.


Probably the public play of the year no doubt. I don't care though I don't really factor that stuff into the way I bet games. I tend to be against the so called "public" plays more often than on them just because of the way I approach games but there are times they win and I think this is one of them.
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#43
Posted: 1/8/2012 12:57:58 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by andarmac99:

Taking a pass on this Giants game. Like I said I initially leaned Falcons and I trust my gut. Won't be on Atlanta though as I don't trust them. I don't trust the Giants either to show up they've garbage badly in these 1:00 home games this year. This could be a good game to hit at the half though. I think we'll have a pretty good idea at that point as to who has shown up and wants the game more. Whoever wins between the Falcons O-line and Giants D-line will win this game.

Hit New Orleans -3 -115 at the open. Hats off to San Fran for a nice season but they aren't going to beat the Saints.

Go Broncos.

Saints - 3 seems like taking candy from a baby.. I guess we will just have to wait and see..

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#44
Posted: 1/8/2012 12:11:01 PM

Outsmarted myself going Saints 1st half.   

Made an AWFUL play on Pitt Panthers which wiped out my Steeler teaser, so trying to figure out what to do now.  I just can't bet Denver, and I don't like Pitt laying that wood. 

GL to all today.

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#45
Posted: 1/8/2012 12:12:28 PM
BOL bud
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#46
Posted: 1/8/2012 2:37:42 PM
NY Giants pk (2nd half)

The Giants are better than this shitty Falcons team. No wonder Matt Ryan has never won anything he has happy feet from the second the ball is snapped. Atlanta is a horrible 2nd half team at -33 point differential easily the worst of any playoff team. They tried at the half 6 times and have only come back to win once and that was against a bad Panthers defense. Could get screwed with the FG but I will gladly pay to see this team man up and win a big game.


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Posted: 1/8/2012 2:38:20 PM
**Should say they've trailed
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#48
Posted: 1/8/2012 2:41:24 PM
Ugh. JPP and Ross down to start the half.


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#49
Posted: 1/8/2012 8:22:09 PM
john fox.
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#50
Posted: 1/8/2012 8:24:39 PM
WOW they won legit!
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