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Working on the write ups for this weekend's playoff games now....

NBA:

New Jersey @ Denver Under 198.5 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 Units

LA Lakers @ Utah Over 184.5   for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s

LA Clippers +4 U’s for 1.1 U’s to win 1 U

New York Knicks +4 for 2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s

Philiadephia @ New York Over 196.5  2.2 U’s to win 2 U’s

NCAABB: Temple +9.5 for 3.3 U’s to win 3 U’s

SAINTS @ 49ERS

There is opportunity in betting games that the public has a skewed view of.  The Saints / 49ers game is one of those games.

My contention is that the Saints are not nearly as dominant as what the public thinks they are on the road playing top ranked talent, and in open air stadiums.  They have played only one playoff team on the road in an open air stadium, and lost (GB).  Even against mediocre opponents on the road their performance dropped off significantly, and add the open air stadium factor, they get even worse. 

Overall scoring:

The Saints are behind the league leading Packers in total pts scored by only 13 pts for the season.

In the SuperDome:

·       @ home the Saints average 41.6 ppg

Saints away from the SuperDome

·       They average 27.25 pts  per game on the road.  (14.35 less pts per game than @ home)

·       In open air stadiums they average 25.8 ppg (15.8 ppg less than @ home)

·       At home, their average scoring margin is +22.6 pts

·       Away their average scoring margin is +2.75 pts (a difference of almost 20 pts per game)

·       In open air stadiums, the Saints scoring margin is +1.4 (that is against 5 teams with only 2 teams with winning records:  Tennessee and Green Bay)

In open air stadiums:

·       The Saints are 3-2 for a combined score of 129-122 (average score of 25.8 to 24.4)

·       The Saints have played only 1 playoff team away/open air:  Green Bay and Lost 37-42

·       They average 25.8 ppg in open air stadiums (vs Green Bay, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Tennessee.)

·       Only 1 of the Saints last 10 games were played in an open top stadium, and not counting that game; the Saints averaged 36.7 ppg, and that one game away/outdoors?  Tennessee where they hung on to win 22-17.

Vs Quality teams:

·       On the road Vs. Top 10 pass defenses, top 10 defenses, or vs top 10 pass offenses the Saints are: GB L 34-42, Jacksonville W 23-10, STL L 21-31, Atlanta  W 26-23,  2-2 with a negative combined score of  104 to 106 (ave. score of 26 to 26.5).

 Congrats KS on the 49ers!!!

KS : right you won your big bet just the same .  

Can TJ Yate Be ‘mistake-free’ to keep his team close ( within 7.5 of the Ravens)?

Yates played 7 games this season; 3 were against top defenses (2X Cincinnati, and 1 against Jacksonville), but that is kind of misleading as well.  Both Jacksonville and Cincinnati’s defenses were mere shadows of what they were in the early season.  Cincinatti Lost their best run stopper (Sims) in the Cleveland game on Nov. 27^th and they never seemed to be able to recover from the loss. On another note, I had Houston last week, but realize how lucky I got when Cincy secondary missed 3 would be INT’s (one of which would have been a pick 6 without a doubt), but Yates had a 97.7 passer rating all the same. Jax got progressively more beat up (they gave 25.8 pts per game in their last 5 games (the game before was against Houston who only scored 20 against them), and only 18.18 in the first 11 games of the season. 

·       Yates has an average passer rating (vs top Defenses) of 83.3.

·       Yate has an average passer rating of 84.1 on the road.

·       Yates has an average passer rating of 75.7 vs top defenses on the road.

The Ravens will be the absolute best defense that Yates has faced, bar none.  It will be in an extremely hostile environment.  This is the biggest game of his life, and I wonder if he is flipping his hotel remote right now, as opposed to sleeping—how does a rookie QB sleep before the biggest day of his life having never played an NFL game until the last 2 months ago?  Don’t get me wrong, I think T.J. is going to be an above average starting QB in the NFL, but I have very serious doubts about his ability to win this game on his arm if need be.

Ray Rice/Ricky Williams Vs Arian Foster/Ben Tate; who will dominate?

Arian Foster lit it up last weekend vs Cincy, but once more… Cincy has not been the same run D since losing Sims for the season.  Before Sims was injured, the Bengals allowed only 3.5 yards per attempt, but since losing him they allowed an average of 4.8 per carry (which would leave them in bottom 3^rd of the league in run D.  In the first trip to Baltimore, Foster had only 49 yards on 15 carries (3.2 per rush), and Tate had 41 yards on 9 carries (4.5).  Bmore has a formidable Run D that will not allow Foster/Tate to take over the game, and they are going to allow Yates the opportunity to beat them on his arm, but not on the ground; they certainly have the personnel to carry out that game plan.  The only way Foster / Tate will do real damage is if Yates opens up an effective passing game, which would force Baltimore into pass prevention.

Rice had 101 yards on 23 carries vs Houston, allowed by Flacco’s 305 yards passing on 33 attempts.  Rice has an average of 4.7 per carry this season, and I think the week off has served him well.  Williams has 4.1 per carry this season, and is a formidable option when resting Rice.  Although the Texans are ranked 4^th in rush defense, they have not had success against good running teams. Houston faced only 4 top 10 rushing teams, and lost every time they did; Carolina (they lost 28-13, and gave up 4.88 per carry), New Orleans (they lost, and gave up 4.55 yards per carry), Oakland (they lost 25-20 and gave up 4.3 yards per carry), Baltimore (they lost 29-14, and gave up 3.76 yards per carry).  Rice and Williams are going to be primed for this game, and I think they will have their way vs an over rated Houston run defense.

What will be the strategies for these two teams, and whose game plan will force the other to change?

Houston is going to try to pass on first downs—short passes over the top, or into the flat.  They will attempt some early draw plays to offset the Ravens rabid pass rush.  The Ravens are going to have Reed floating in the secondary waiting for Yates to make a mistake, and the cover guys are going to play up on the line to stop the screen passes.  Yates is going to have to take a few shots down field early to attempt to loosen up the box (run Defense), but I just don’t see him having success in this endeavor.  Houston’s best chance in this game is to keep it close until the forth quarter, and take advantage of the Ravens aging defense in hopes that fatigue will cause some broken coverages, ect.

Baltimore is going to run, run, and then take a few shots down field.  Baltimore is aware that Houston has given up an average of 4+ yards per carry vs good rushing teams, and they will force Houston to bring everyone up to try and stop them.  Once Houston starts playing the run, Harbaugh will take shots down field.  Their desire is to get up a couple scores on Houston and force Yates to go into passing mode, and that is where Baltimore will win the turnover battle (I see Baltimore with a +2, or better, turnover margin in this game.

Summary:

It is a fairly easy play on Baltimore when you consider:

·       Yates has 2 Int’s to only 1 TD in his last 4 games

·       Houston has faced only 4 top 10 running teams this season, and lost every one of those games

·       Yates has not faced the quality of defenses in his career that Flacco has faced this season

·       This is the first home playoff game in Baltimore in years, and they are going to be rabid

·       Flacco/Ravens have much more playoff experience, and I think to an extent that Houston is happy right now because they went further than any Texan team has, and Baltimore will consider anything less than a superbowl ring as a failure

·       Texans lost the first game with Schaub at the helm 14-29 (Schaub was 21-37 for 220… what can we even hope for Yates to turn in?)

·       64% of the public is on Houston in this game, yet the line opened at -7.5 in most houses, and is now at -8 in some, and unchanged in others.  Vegas is baiting the Texans play…don’t take it.

·       Lastly… I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I am rational enough to see how some calls seem to favor what is best for the NFL… what better storyline is there than to have 2 Harbaughs as 2 of the last 4 standing with a potential rematch of the ‘Sibling Rivalry’?....hmmmm.  The NFL will lose money (in ratings if a Yates driven Texans team advances)… once more, I am NOT a person who thinks that corruption effects very much at all in professional sports, but sometimes those ticky tac calls seem to favor the NFL’s way of thinking it seems….lucky for us all the other tangibles favor us anyway

Ravens -7.5  for 8.8 Units