Cincinnati @
Houston:
Cincinnati SU/ATS:
let’s look at how Marvin Lewis’s Bengals
have performed vs teams over .500 this season(won/lost SU 1-7: Baltimore 1 (L) 16-24, Baltimore 2 (L) 24-31,
Houston (L) 19-20, Pittsburgh 1 (L) 17-24. Pittsburgh (L) 7-35, Tennessee (W)
24-17, SF (L) 8-13, Denver (L) 22-24.
Vs. playoff teams Cincy is 0-7.
ATS vs Playoff teams Cincy is 1-5-1.
SU/ATS: Marvin Lewis: Marvin Lewis is 0-2 SU in the
post season. Lewis is 0-2 ATS in the
post-season. Kubiak has not been a HC in
the NFL post season, and has no record as such.
Cincy Run D: Cincy’s run D is ranked 10th in
the league, and this seems somewhat impressive, but is it? Up until November 27th (vs.
Cleveland) Cincy was allowing only 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground (which
would be ranked in a 3 way tie for 1st in the NFL right now), but
since that game Cincy has allowed an average of 4.8 per rush attempt (which
would be ranked 5th from the bottom of NFL defenses for the season
right now). That is 1.3 more yards per
attempt…why is this you ask? Simple;
Cincy’s #1 gap plugging D-lineman (Sims) went down for the season. Going against Houston’s 2nd ranked offense that averages 44.9%
(in last 3 games) rush plays….not to mention (and A. Foster) who averages 4.4 yards per
attempt… it could be a long day for Cincy’s fragile run defense.
Houston Run D:
only New Orleans (b/c teams playing from
behind), San Fran, and Atlanta faced less rush attempts than Houston did, and
for good reason… Houston allowed just 96 total yards per game on the ground
this season (4.1 yards per attempt).
Houston’s D-line has not incurred any major injuries in the last couple
months. Wade Phillips is back as the
Defensive play caller (not counting the season Finale that was basically
meaningless) , with Phillips calling the D plays, Houston only allowed 15.9
points per game.
Two rookie QB’s
face off: This is the first NFL
playoff game where two true rookie QB’s will face off against each other. There are a few notable differences in what
these two will be facing: Dalton will
face the # 3 pass defense that has also allowed a league best 51.9% (up to 59%
in L3, but that was either without Wade Phillips calling the plays, or it was
in a game that was meaningless) completion
percentage. TJ Yates will face the NFL’s
#9 pass defense, who has allowed 59.18
(up to 63% in L3). As far as QB efficiency
goes, I know of no better bench marking system than standard QB rating; which
both QB’s are dead even (Yates 80.7 vs. Dalton’s 80.4), though you could make
an argument that Yates faced rougher Defenses (4 of his 6 games were vs top 20
defenses, and 3 of those 6 were top 12 overall defenses). The big difference is the opposition these
two rookies are going to face. Dalton is
facing basically one of the (if not the) best defenses that the NFL has to
offer.
Cincinnati @
Houston:
Cincinnati SU/ATS:
let’s look at how Marvin Lewis’s Bengals
have performed vs teams over .500 this season(won/lost SU 1-7: Baltimore 1 (L) 16-24, Baltimore 2 (L) 24-31,
Houston (L) 19-20, Pittsburgh 1 (L) 17-24. Pittsburgh (L) 7-35, Tennessee (W)
24-17, SF (L) 8-13, Denver (L) 22-24.
Vs. playoff teams Cincy is 0-7.
ATS vs Playoff teams Cincy is 1-5-1.
SU/ATS: Marvin Lewis: Marvin Lewis is 0-2 SU in the
post season. Lewis is 0-2 ATS in the
post-season. Kubiak has not been a HC in
the NFL post season, and has no record as such.
Cincy Run D: Cincy’s run D is ranked 10th in
the league, and this seems somewhat impressive, but is it? Up until November 27th (vs.
Cleveland) Cincy was allowing only 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground (which
would be ranked in a 3 way tie for 1st in the NFL right now), but
since that game Cincy has allowed an average of 4.8 per rush attempt (which
would be ranked 5th from the bottom of NFL defenses for the season
right now). That is 1.3 more yards per
attempt…why is this you ask? Simple;
Cincy’s #1 gap plugging D-lineman (Sims) went down for the season. Going against Houston’s 2nd ranked offense that averages 44.9%
(in last 3 games) rush plays….not to mention (and A. Foster) who averages 4.4 yards per
attempt… it could be a long day for Cincy’s fragile run defense.
Houston Run D:
only New Orleans (b/c teams playing from
behind), San Fran, and Atlanta faced less rush attempts than Houston did, and
for good reason… Houston allowed just 96 total yards per game on the ground
this season (4.1 yards per attempt).
Houston’s D-line has not incurred any major injuries in the last couple
months. Wade Phillips is back as the
Defensive play caller (not counting the season Finale that was basically
meaningless) , with Phillips calling the D plays, Houston only allowed 15.9
points per game.
Two rookie QB’s
face off: This is the first NFL
playoff game where two true rookie QB’s will face off against each other. There are a few notable differences in what
these two will be facing: Dalton will
face the # 3 pass defense that has also allowed a league best 51.9% (up to 59%
in L3, but that was either without Wade Phillips calling the plays, or it was
in a game that was meaningless) completion
percentage. TJ Yates will face the NFL’s
#9 pass defense, who has allowed 59.18
(up to 63% in L3). As far as QB efficiency
goes, I know of no better bench marking system than standard QB rating; which
both QB’s are dead even (Yates 80.7 vs. Dalton’s 80.4), though you could make
an argument that Yates faced rougher Defenses (4 of his 6 games were vs top 20
defenses, and 3 of those 6 were top 12 overall defenses). The big difference is the opposition these
two rookies are going to face. Dalton is
facing basically one of the (if not the) best defenses that the NFL has to
offer.
Strategies: Marvin Lewis is going to be forced to pass
because his run game is going to be stagnant.
Houston will stack the box to force Dalton to try to beat Houston in the
air.
Dalton Vs. top 10
passing defenses: Dalton is 3-5 SU vs top 10 pass D’s
(disclaimer: the 3 wins that Cincy has
vs these top 10 pass D’s were the 29th, and 32nd ranked
offense’s) Vs teams with top 15 offenses
AND top 10 pass D’s (Pitt x 2, Balt x 2, and Houston, Cincy is 0-5 SU, and
0-4-1 ATS.. losing vs the spread in these games by a total of 32.5 pts).
Houston @ home: I am not counting the last 3 games of Houston’s
defense due to 1) not having Phillips to call plays in 2 games, and, 2) the last game being meaningless. @ Home Houston was 5-1 ATS.
Cincy away: Cincy away was 5-3 ATS, but vs Playoff teams
on the road they are 0-3 ATS.
Squares and
Sharps: Squares are surprisingly
favoring the Bengals (slightly @ 53.72%), yet the line opened Cincy +3, and has
improved for Cincy backers to +4. Either
Vegas is baiting the Cincy backers, or Sharp money is pulling the line. My guess is that it is a combination of the
2.
Summary: This game is probably the best money maker of
the weekend. The basic stats are what
Joe-Public views and considers, and the basic stats will point to a closely
matched contest (i.e. Cincy with a top tier run D, and strong ATS—overall and
away. The last game was a 1 pt game that
Houston had to come back on the last drive to win—with Cincy ahead the whole
game to that point. The deeper reasoning
(Cincy’s much weaker D than shows due to season stats vs recent stats). Marvin Lewis is the quintessential post
season choke artist, and Houston’s last 3 games (one of which with Monday night
exposure losing to Colts but without Wade Phillips defensive prowess calling
plays). All of these facts/stats/trends
serve as an advantage over the betting public.
Cincy appears to be quality in
the total points allowed arena as well, but they only played 4 games this
season vs teams in the top 20 of points scored (the Jekyl-Hyde Bills scored 20,
the Ravens scored 31, Houston scored 20, and Baltimore scored only 24 in a game
that Baltimore knew was meaningless to them @ gametime ).
Final Score:
Houston 27 Cincy 16
Houston -4 for 4.4
Units to win 4 Units
Strategies: Marvin Lewis is going to be forced to pass
because his run game is going to be stagnant.
Houston will stack the box to force Dalton to try to beat Houston in the
air.
Dalton Vs. top 10
passing defenses: Dalton is 3-5 SU vs top 10 pass D’s
(disclaimer: the 3 wins that Cincy has
vs these top 10 pass D’s were the 29th, and 32nd ranked
offense’s) Vs teams with top 15 offenses
AND top 10 pass D’s (Pitt x 2, Balt x 2, and Houston, Cincy is 0-5 SU, and
0-4-1 ATS.. losing vs the spread in these games by a total of 32.5 pts).
Houston @ home: I am not counting the last 3 games of Houston’s
defense due to 1) not having Phillips to call plays in 2 games, and, 2) the last game being meaningless. @ Home Houston was 5-1 ATS.
Cincy away: Cincy away was 5-3 ATS, but vs Playoff teams
on the road they are 0-3 ATS.
Squares and
Sharps: Squares are surprisingly
favoring the Bengals (slightly @ 53.72%), yet the line opened Cincy +3, and has
improved for Cincy backers to +4. Either
Vegas is baiting the Cincy backers, or Sharp money is pulling the line. My guess is that it is a combination of the
2.
Summary: This game is probably the best money maker of
the weekend. The basic stats are what
Joe-Public views and considers, and the basic stats will point to a closely
matched contest (i.e. Cincy with a top tier run D, and strong ATS—overall and
away. The last game was a 1 pt game that
Houston had to come back on the last drive to win—with Cincy ahead the whole
game to that point. The deeper reasoning
(Cincy’s much weaker D than shows due to season stats vs recent stats). Marvin Lewis is the quintessential post
season choke artist, and Houston’s last 3 games (one of which with Monday night
exposure losing to Colts but without Wade Phillips defensive prowess calling
plays). All of these facts/stats/trends
serve as an advantage over the betting public.
Cincy appears to be quality in
the total points allowed arena as well, but they only played 4 games this
season vs teams in the top 20 of points scored (the Jekyl-Hyde Bills scored 20,
the Ravens scored 31, Houston scored 20, and Baltimore scored only 24 in a game
that Baltimore knew was meaningless to them @ gametime ).
Final Score:
Houston 27 Cincy 16
Houston -4 for 4.4
Units to win 4 Units
Texans also had 4 fumbles losing 3 of them and one int vs bengals. Bengals had 2 fumbles and lost both.
Texans also missed 1 FG in that game, so they still won and final score could def been different without the lost turnovers.
Ravens and ray rice also gashed bengal run D for some big runs last game.
Texans also had 4 fumbles losing 3 of them and one int vs bengals. Bengals had 2 fumbles and lost both.
Texans also missed 1 FG in that game, so they still won and final score could def been different without the lost turnovers.
Ravens and ray rice also gashed bengal run D for some big runs last game.
Texans also had 4 fumbles losing 3 of them and one int vs bengals. Bengals had 2 fumbles and lost both.
Texans also missed 1 FG in that game, so they still won and final score could def been different without the lost turnovers.
Ravens and ray rice also gashed bengal run D for some big runs last game.
Texans also had 4 fumbles losing 3 of them and one int vs bengals. Bengals had 2 fumbles and lost both.
Texans also missed 1 FG in that game, so they still won and final score could def been different without the lost turnovers.
Ravens and ray rice also gashed bengal run D for some big runs last game.
LIONS just don't do it man
Hammer will come down hard tonight
LIONS just don't do it man
Hammer will come down hard tonight
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