Posted: 1/7/2012 3:07:04 AM
Strategies: Marvin Lewis is going to be forced to pass
because his run game is going to be stagnant.
Houston will stack the box to force Dalton to try to beat Houston in the
Dalton Vs. top 10
passing defenses: Dalton is 3-5 SU vs top 10 pass D’s
(disclaimer: the 3 wins that Cincy has
vs these top 10 pass D’s were the 29th, and 32nd ranked
offense’s) Vs teams with top 15 offenses
AND top 10 pass D’s (Pitt x 2, Balt x 2, and Houston, Cincy is 0-5 SU, and
0-4-1 ATS.. losing vs the spread in these games by a total of 32.5 pts).
Houston @ home: I am not counting the last 3 games of Houston’s
defense due to 1) not having Phillips to call plays in 2 games, and, 2) the last game being meaningless. @ Home Houston was 5-1 ATS.
Cincy away: Cincy away was 5-3 ATS, but vs Playoff teams
on the road they are 0-3 ATS.
Sharps: Squares are surprisingly
favoring the Bengals (slightly @ 53.72%), yet the line opened Cincy +3, and has
improved for Cincy backers to +4. Either
Vegas is baiting the Cincy backers, or Sharp money is pulling the line. My guess is that it is a combination of the
Summary: This game is probably the best money maker of
the weekend. The basic stats are what
Joe-Public views and considers, and the basic stats will point to a closely
matched contest (i.e. Cincy with a top tier run D, and strong ATS—overall and
away. The last game was a 1 pt game that
Houston had to come back on the last drive to win—with Cincy ahead the whole
game to that point. The deeper reasoning
(Cincy’s much weaker D than shows due to season stats vs recent stats). Marvin Lewis is the quintessential post
season choke artist, and Houston’s last 3 games (one of which with Monday night
exposure losing to Colts but without Wade Phillips defensive prowess calling
plays). All of these facts/stats/trends
serve as an advantage over the betting public.
Cincy appears to be quality in
the total points allowed arena as well, but they only played 4 games this
season vs teams in the top 20 of points scored (the Jekyl-Hyde Bills scored 20,
the Ravens scored 31, Houston scored 20, and Baltimore scored only 24 in a game
that Baltimore knew was meaningless to them @ gametime ).
Houston 27 Cincy 16
Houston -4 for 4.4
Units to win 4 Units